Re: United Banana Republic of America: Government and Service Jobs for All!
It would be interesting to know the split between Governement related job creation (including municipal,public services like transport,hospitals,para-public ,etc.) vs private sector.
Just eyeballing the saturday adds in "La Presse" , it seems to be at least 70/30 for the public jobs offers.
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Re: United Banana Republic of America: Government and Service Jobs for All!
And here's the latest installment from north of the border. The media and their preferred commentators express surprise at the number of jobs created while the economy has slowed so dramatically. However, one can be quite certain that Canadian governments at all levels, flush with cash from the recent economic boom, and ever desirous of finding new and creative ways to control their citizen's lives, are hiring like mad.Originally posted by EJ View PostCalgary labour crunch getting worse
StatsCan data sees no relief for employers
Geoffrey Scotton Calgary Herald
Saturday, March 08, 2008
Unrelenting economic growth has pushed Calgary's jobless rate further below three per cent, indicating that widespread labour shortages aren't only here to stay -- they're getting worse.
Backed by Statistics Canada figures Friday, experts said competition to find workers is tougher than ever.
"It's not an easy market," said Jack Gregory, co-owner of Tuxedo Source for Sports. "You really have to listen to your employees and try and find ways to give them little perks. We've been very, very lucky with the people we've got," Gregory added about his 25-person sporting goods operation. "Employees will go to other places if they don't think that you care."
Calgary's jobless rate for February was 2.8 per cent, down from 2.9 per cent in January and materially lower than the mark a year ago, when the unemployment rate in the city was 3.3 per cent. Record lows were set in December 2006 and January 2007, at 2.6 per cent.
"I'm a little bit surprised to see it down below three per cent," said Adam Legge, vice-president and chief economist of Calgary Economic Development. "It's a continued bellwether that labour shortages are not a flash in the pan, they're not a short-term thing -- they're here to stay.
"This is an employees' market and they can pick and choose, they can drive the contact. If you want to retain them, you've got to be compensating well, you've got to have a great environment, you've got to be offering challenge and opportunity," said Legge.
Analysts say the tightened job market in Calgary indicates the economy is once again performing more strongly than anticipated. Record oil prices and strengthening natural gas prices are buttressing Calgary's prosperity and that's keeping the labour supply tight.
"There's quite some potential for Calgary to outperform," said Legge, suggesting 2008 growth in the city may be closer to four per cent than the low three per cent range he forecast in December.
At the national level, a U.S. economic slowdown and signs of one north of the border have done nothing to cool Canada's red-hot labour market -- even in the beleaguered manufacturing heartland of Ontario -- StatsCan said, as the nation added 43,300 jobs in February, keeping the jobless rate at a 33-year low and pushing the employment rate to an all-time high.
Analysts are mystified by the ability of the Canadian economy to crank out tens of thousands of jobs when growth on both sides of the Canada-U.S. border is slowing.
Canada's economy expanded by an anemic 0.8 per cent annual pace in the fourth quarter of 2007, prompting the Bank of Canada on March 4 to slash interest rates by half a percentage point.
"To say that today's employment numbers were stunning simply doesn't do the outcome justice," said TD Bank Financial Group vice-president and deputy chief economist Craig Alexander.
"We've run out of superlatives to describe the remarkable strength in the labour market at a time that the other monthly economic reports are signalling slowing economic growth."
Although Ontario accounted for most of the new jobs in February, Alberta has helped to elevate the national performance.
While there were few additions to jobs in Alberta in February, the province has added 58,000 new employees in the last year; a stellar, three per cent job creation rate. It also maintained its participation rate (those adults who are working or looking) at an all-time high of 74.5 per cent, by far the highest in Canada.
Nonetheless, in February, as more people -- about 1,100 -- entered the Alberta labour force and employment fell by 5,000, the jobless rate edged up from the rock-bottom rate of 3.2 per cent in January to a still drum-tight 3.5 per cent, still the lowest in Canada, as it has been generally for roughly three years.
The robust performance of the job market nationally, and in Alberta and Calgary, comes at a time when there has been a slew of indicators that the Canadian economy's pace of expansion slowed considerably as 2007 drew to a close.
"It seems that the slower the Canadian economy grows, the more workers it needs to hire," said Avery Shenfeld, managing director and senior economist with CIBC World Markets Inc., noting the February gains came on top of 46,000 jobs added in January.
Shenfeld cited Canada's "tepid" average economic growth rate in the second half of 2007 of just 1.9 per cent. "It should take a boom in output to need all those new hires . . . this simply defies logic," said Shenfeld.
In Alberta and Calgary, there are few signs things will slow, particularly among operators of small and medium-sized businesses. The Canadian Federation of Independent Business said Friday that 6.3 per cent of Alberta firms had jobs go unfilled for at least four months in 2007, estimating that a total of 54,000 positions across Wild Rose Country went unfilled.
Moreover, one half of all businesses had trouble hiring new staff.
"For years, we've been talking about the shortage of qualified labour," said the CFIB's director for Alberta, Danielle Smith. "Even with the current economic uncertainties, our demographics suggest that the shortage of qualified labour is a problem that is not going away any time soon."
http://www.canada.com/calgaryherald/...5d&k=80563&p=2
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Re: United Banana Republic of America: Government and Service Jobs for All!
Theoretically yes. But they are no more likely to exercise that alternative than the Fed is likely to exercise its alternative in support of that same dollar.Originally posted by jk View Post
Why not?
Well, here's one reason. The massive money printing here has spawned one of the biggest real estate booms on the face of the planet. The scale of the projects here is rivaled only by China. As usual in this region, the enormous financial benefits accrue almost entirely to an extraordinarily privileged slice at the very upper tier of these societies. They aren't going to stop the music voluntarily - not as long as they can keep the incredibly lucrative game going, and buy public peace if necessary by sprinkling a bit of largesse.Leave a comment:
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Re: United Banana Republic of America: Government and Service Jobs for All!
having just come from the thread discussing subsidized energy prices in oil producing countries [e.g. venezuelans pay $0.07/gallon for gasoline], i far prefer subsidized food if the gov't feels it must intervene.
i love the idea of big raises in income to "combat" inflation. of course these countries are suffering from inflation because they link their currencies to the dollar, so they do have another alternative....Leave a comment:
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Re: United Banana Republic of America: Government and Service Jobs for All!
Originally posted by EJ View Post
The UBRA is but an amateur at this game. Check this out.
Inflation? What inflation??
Consumer relief as gov't unveils food subsidies
by Wael Mahdi on Sunday, 09 December 2007
zoom
King Abdullah, pictured, orders government to take action to ease inflationary pressure on citizens. (Getty Images)
Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah on Saturday intervened directly in the kingdom’s war on inflation, ordering the government to pay subsidies on two major food items to ease consumer concerns about the rising cost of goods.
Saudi finance minister Ibrahim Al-Assaf said the government will pay 1,000 Saudi riyals ($266) in subsidies for each metric tonne of rice, and will increase the subsidy for baby milk sixfold from 2 riyals to 12 riyals, the official Saudi Press Agency (SPA) reported.
SPA did not give any further details about the subsidies or when they would come into effect.
International rice prices have risen 8.7% since the beginning of the year, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO).
Saudi Arabia is the largest importer of rice in the Middle East. The kingdom imported little under half of India’s total rice exports of 1.01 million tonnes in 2006-2007, while the rest of West Asia imported 291,000 tonnes, according to data from India’s Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics (DGCIS).
The Saudi government is also looking at raising public sector wages to fight inflation, which accelerated to 4.8% in September, the highest level in at least a decade.
State employees are expected to receive a 30% salary increase, with a decision set to be issued shortly, according to a report by Arabic news channel Al-Arabiya.
The news follows reports last week that several high-profile Saudi companies such as Saudi Aramco and Mobily plan to raise wages by 15-40%.
Saudi Arabia is just the latest Gulf Arab state to look at hiking public sector wages as part of efforts to limit the impact of inflation.
Kuwaiti MPs approved a draft law last week urging the government to raise public and private sector wages for employees earning less than $6,385.
Bahrain has approved calls for a 15% hike for government employees, and the UAE recently announced it will raise public sector wages by 70%. :eek:
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Re: United Banana Republic of America: Government and Service Jobs for All!
Americans no longer know the power of "raving mob with guns" and what it can do to scared politicians. If they did...well, the National Mall would become interesting.Originally posted by zoog View Post
Daniel Shays had that power. And because of him came the Constitution.
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Re: United Banana Republic of America: Government and Service Jobs for All!
this is where the bailouts lead... to expectations of perpetual bailouts. they become an entitlement, as they have for wall street. watch what happens when the price of oil falls.Originally posted by zoog View PostLeave a comment:
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Re: United Banana Republic of America: Government and Service Jobs for All!
Wow, I thought we Americans had a sense of entitlement! Storming the national assembly demanding the government absolve you of your personal debts?Originally posted by GRG55 View Post
(I know someone will come in with a comment about the various mortgage bailout proposals here and how that's no different, but... I dunno, it's not like Americans are marching in the streets demanding the government pay off their car loans, credit cards, payday loans, etc. across the board.)Leave a comment:
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Re: United Banana Republic of America: Government and Service Jobs for All!
Now here's a splendid lesson on how to really run a bail out. None of that small-time tinkering with ARM rate freezes that Paulson's been touting. Who says that Middle East governments aren't responsive to their citizens... :rolleyes:
Kuwait caves on demands to bail citizens out of debt
by Joel Bowman on Wednesday, 05 December 2007
Kuwaiti ruler Sabah Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah on Wednesday ordered the government to set up a 300-million Kuwaiti dinar ($1.9 billion) fund to bail thousands of citizens out of debt after protesters stormed the country's National Assembly.
A huge crowd of demonstrators had to be thrown out of the assembly on Tuesday following the government's decision to deny their demands for the state to pay off debts such as bank loans.
The meeting on debt relief eventually had to be postponed after one citizen hurled abuses at MP Ahmad Baqer, head of the financial and economic affairs committee, accusing him of opposing the aspirations of common citizens.
The ruler's proposed bail-out plan, expected to be passed into law by parliament on Wednesday, will absolve citizens of about 4 billion dinars of debts, reported state news agency Kuna.
Protesters had been calling for the government to buy citizen’s debt from lending institutions and redistribute payment obligations over a 25-year period with zero interest.
Ousted protesters then gathered at the gates of the National Assembly, shouting and demanding acceptance of the proposed debt relief bill which calls for the government to buy citizen’s debt from lending institutions, redistributing payment obligations over a 25-year period with zero interest.
“The cost of a house today is about 140,000 dinars, and the government only gives us 70,000 dinars,” one protester told the Kuwait Times daily.
“So we are forced to take loans to pay the rest of the amount. The government isn't serious in solving this problem.”
Central Bank governor Sheikh Salem Abdulaziz Al-Sabah estimated the total national consumer debt at the end of October amounted to almost 4.6 billion dinars.
The amount comprises over 1.1 billion dinars in consumer loans, while the rest were installed credit facilities with adjustable interest rates that change along with the central bank policy.
The number of loans offered by lenders in the country totalled 451,000, according to Al-Sabah, 155,000 of which have adjustable interest rates.
Kuwait is the third-richest Arab country with a per capita gross domestic product of $30,188 last year, according to London-based Middle East Economic Digest (Meed). Qatar and the UAE are the richest.
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Re: United Banana Republic of America: Government and Service Jobs for All!
The new version may have to replace 'Russian' with 'American' :rolleyes:Originally posted by DemonD
Ditto for your sentiment.Originally posted by DemonD
I'd have a lot more confidence in the guy if
1) He wasn't a trial lawyer
2) He echoes all the worst parts of capitalism: nouveau riche behavior ($400 hair cuts, etc), using any and all levers to empower/enrich self, etc.
I don't believe it is necessary to run around in hair shirts to show your economic frugality, but it is highly cynical to say that you believe in the American Way and prosperity for all when your own livelihood was to raise insurance costs on the overall population in the interests of self enrichment.
I mean, suing the American Red Cross - that literal blood sucking scion of the establishment? Medical malpractice lawsuit history?
Gimme a break.Leave a comment:
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Re: United Banana Republic of America: Government and Service Jobs for All!
Here's something from John Mauldin's eletter where he excerpts a bit of Lombard Street Research commentary. Note their view regarding US recession:Originally posted by Fred View Post
One of my favorite sources of information has come to be Charles Dumas and his associates at Lombard Street Research, based in London. (www.lombardstreetresearch.com)
He writes that the employment data suggest the US is on the brink of recession and may already imply a hard landing. In the paragraph below, he talks about the relationship between the two estimates of employment put out by the government (the payroll survey and the household survey) and their relationship to GDP.
"You need rose-coloured spectacles - to ignore the blue and the orange - or the black and the grey - in the chart below to get bullish. It is not in the recession zone - but it is not in the trend-growth zone either, let alone a strong economy. Depending on the period chosen, last 50 years or last 20 years, US average growth has been 3 1/4% or 3%, respectively. Payroll jobs growth has averaged more than half that, 2% or 1.6%. The sensitivity of payroll jobs growth to variance in GDP growth has been about two fifths: i.e., 1% faster or slower jobs growth for every 2 1/2% upside or downside of GDP growth from its average or trend. On this basis, recent payroll jobs growth at or below a 1% rate imply real GDP growth has been around 1%."
Charles goes on to show the relationship between GDP and the payroll employment numbers shows that the economy may be slowing even more. "The payroll number is consistent with GDP growth that is scarcely above zero. Our GDP growth estimate for Q3 and forecast for Q4 are in the 1 1/2% region. When the Christmas bonuses come in significantly down, and house prices are seen to be falling even for actual transactions - and even in East Hampton - we expect conditions then to worsen."Leave a comment:
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Re: United Banana Republic of America: Government and Service Jobs for All!
Yes, they model the BDM NSA data on other NSA sources and apply the whole thing to SA data, but the differences in reported nonfarm NSA/SA numbers are very stable over time. It may be intellectually interesting while surely totally irrelevant that BDM and the SA do offset each other partly, very notably in January and July.Originally posted by hayfield View Post
This is a surely a weird science... after digging around in the historic data from 1979 to 2007 i come to the conclusion that all the revisions are a random walk.
You can save a lot of energy arguing over all that payroll stuff and just read this from the BLS website where they say their BDM is working just fine - except when you would really need it:
"The most significant potential drawback to this or any model-based approach is that time series modeling assumes a predictable continuation of historical patterns and relationships and therefore is likely to have some difficulty producing reliable estimates at economic turning points or during periods when there are sudden changes in trend.
BLS will continue researching alternative model-based techniques for the net birth/death component; it is likely to remain as the most problematic part of the estimation process."Leave a comment:
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Re: United Banana Republic of America: Government and Service Jobs for All!
Originally posted by Fred View Post
I was under the (possibly erroneous) assumption that the BDM numbers were not seasonally adjusted (NSA) and the non-farm jobs numbers were seasonally adjusted (SA). Without knowing the seasonal adjustment factors, comparing the numbers is impossible, or at least prone to gross error?Leave a comment:
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Re: United Banana Republic of America: Government and Service Jobs for All!
Originally posted by Fred View Post
NY Times Financial Correspondent Floyd Norris has some thoughts along the same lines...
October 5, 2007, 10:25 am Assuming Jobs
The employment report is being hailed as good news, proof that the economy is stronger than it appeared after last month’s bad report.
Well, maybe.
As reported, the last six months have seen an average job gain of 112,000 — the lowest such figure for any six-month period in three and a half years. But that is probably overstated.
The most interesting part of the report to me is that the government now thinks it overstated job growth in the year through March 2007 by 297,000 jobs. It will later restate those months...
Link to his blog:
http://norris.blogs.nytimes.com/?ref=business
And the always astute MacroMaven, Stephanie Pomboy (Barron's Alan Abelson quotes her regularly) had this to say about the birth/death adjustment on Monday, Oct 1, ahead of the BLS release:
"...While one would be loathe to bet against the BLS's ability to manufacture jobs, the birth/death factor which has single-handedly accounted for 1.1 mln (or 70%) of the 1.5 mln jobs "created" over the past year is lower in September than any other month of the year after January. Last year the September birth/death contribution was 13k, versus an average monthly contribution of 93k jobs..."
However, she goes on to indicate potential for "another negative surprise".
It seems the overall consensus position out there is now 1) chronic suspicion of the BLS reported numbers, and 2) expectation that future revisions are most likely to be downward.
I must confess to the same prejudice...after all everyone studying this stuff, including iTulip, is a lot more knowlegable than me. But could this be shaping up to be another "crowded trade" :confused:Leave a comment:
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Re: United Banana Republic of America: Government and Service Jobs for All!
I'm going to say it: I'm thoroughly confused by all these jobs reports. It reminds me of the Winston Churchill quote: "There are lies, damn lies, statistics, and Russian statistics." (quote is ascribed to Mr. Churchill anyway.)
The one thing I do agree with is what is in jim's post; when company's start reporting 3Q numbers, I expect them to be down and I expect that to drag on the stock market. I also agree that it's likely there was a recession in the 3Q; I have a feeling yoy earnings for the 4Q will be better though (although I will admit it might be a geographic bias, as in Los Angeles I'm just not seeing any sign of recession at all.)
Incidentally I saw part of the "online debate" over on yahoo. It was interesting what John Edwards said - basically he was talking about how when he grew up, the "American Dream" was alive, being able to go from poverty to wealth, but that nowadays, he says he has seen, all around the country, a lot of people who are struggling, middle class and lower class, paying bills, and said "it just seems harder for people." As much as I'd never vote for Mr. Edwards in a million years, I have to give him credit for actually being in touch with this. All I could think of was "the rich get richer while everyone else has it tougher."Leave a comment:
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