Seven Years, Two Warnings

[EJ]

Re: Seven Years, Two Warnings

To make sure you're taking away the right lesson, see:

Ka-Poom Theory Revisited (4/13/05)

A Financial Market Crash is a Process, Not an Event (8/16/07)

Ronald C. Ward, President FutureSelect Porfolio Management (10/8/07)

Neophytes are only bearish when the business press is reporting apparent issues.

[sunny129]

Re: Seven Years, Two Warnings

Has anyone thinks of an insurance against 'BINLADEN PUT" (terrorist event affecting Mkt) scenerio in addition to all the potential bearish issues discussed here? Thanks.

[metalman]

Re: Seven Years, Two Warnings

Has anyone thinks of an insurance against 'BINLADEN PUT" (terrorist event affecting Mkt) scenerio in addition to all the potential bearish issues discussed here? Thanks.

near as i can tell, the itulip credo is either get out near the top, if you think it's not a solid market (like now) or if you hang in there then don't get out near the bottom. that's the classic error. hang in until it's bottomed out, sell, then wait until it's nearly topped again to get back in.

bin laden is just one threat. my take is the guy won the lottery with 9/11 and a repeat ain't never gonna happen. here's my worst case scenario: don putin tries to extort money from the wrong guys and the shit hits the fan.

[Andreuccio]

Re: Seven Years, Two Warnings

To make sure you're taking away the right lesson, see:

Ka-Poom Theory Revisited (4/13/05)

A Financial Market Crash is a Process, Not an Event (8/16/07)

Ronald C. Ward, President FutureSelect Porfolio Management (10/8/07)

The second link, A Financial Market Crash is a Process, Not an Event, is dead.

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1797

will take you to the article.

[lobodelmar]

Re: Seven Years, Two Warnings

To make sure you're taking away the right lesson, see:

Ka-Poom Theory Revisited (4/13/05)

A Financial Market Crash is a Process, Not an Event (8/16/07)

Ronald C. Ward, President FutureSelect Porfolio Management (10/8/07)

Neophytes are only bearish when the business press is reporting apparent issues.

Fred, EJ, I am curious...were you just clarifying and underlining or suggesting a different path? If I wasn;t clear, I wasn't suggesting pull all your stocks and stick it under a mattress...I used to have 100% of my 401ks in growth and international stock funds (since I am young and figured I could ride growth for a long time before i needed any of it) and now I have a percentage in a money market and bond fund. I am limited in all of my retirement plans to a limited set of options.

In your interview with Ron Ward, and elsewhere on these fora, it seems that most people agree with doing something similar. Ward stated: We have increased our cash position and limited our exposure to US and European equity markets.

Just wanted to clarify.

[FRED]

Re: Seven Years, Two Warnings

Fred, EJ, I am curious...were you just clarifying and underlining or suggesting a different path? If I wasn;t clear, I wasn't suggesting pull all your stocks and stick it under a mattress...I used to have 100% of my 401ks in growth and international stock funds (since I am young and figured I could ride growth for a long time before i needed any of it) and now I have a percentage in a money market and bond fund. I am limited in all of my retirement plans to a limited set of options.

In your interview with Ron Ward, and elsewhere on these forums, it seems that most people agree with doing something similar. Ward stated: We have increased our cash position and limited our exposure to US and European equity markets.

Just wanted to clarify.

Plain English: This is a sucker's rally. How long will equities correct? Until DOW/Gold reaches 1:1. Will there be other rallies? Of course.

More on the post-bubble crash, re-inflation rally, re-inflation failure crash cycle later.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Seven Years, Two Warnings

Plain English: This is a sucker's rally. How long will equities correct? Until DOW/Gold reaches 1:1. Will there be other rallies? Of course.

More on the post-bubble crash, re-inflation rally, re-inflation failure crash cycle later.

Fred,

It is my impression that you are the second "Fred" that EJ has employed at least since I joined iTulip. It is further my impression that you are someone capable of admininstrating a website, that you would be to me a "computer geek" and I say that with a whole lot of respect if you qualify in that category of expertise. From time to time it is my impression that you post things for EJ and possible other invited contributors and these posts appear under the name "Fred." Other times I think you post things that are of your own doing.

There are four people who have contributed a lot to iTulip whom I for various reasons consider highly credible individuals: bart, EJ, Finster, jk (abc order) and there are others but those four stand out in my mind. I think there is a tendancy amongst readers here to treat what appears under your posting name with the same credibility as they might treat EJ's posts. Because you have not written enough opinions on iTulip that I can discern as being yours, when something like the above post appears, if you wrote it I would tend to treat it one way, and if EJ wrote it or dictated it to you to post I would treat it differently. Perhaps all this demonstrates total confusion on my part, but I would like for it to be clarified. If you, the present "Fred" post anything that is purely your opinion--then as a suggestion why not get yourself a new screen name and post it under that, such as "Fred II" or whatever you fancy as a name. If you post anything for another writer, or for EJ, or that you might write after a conversation with EJ post that as Fred.

Just a serious suggestion.

[raja]

Re: Seven Years, Two Warnings

If you, the present "Fred" post anything that is purely your opinion--then as a suggestion why not get yourself a new screen name and post it under that, such as "Fred II" or whatever you fancy as a name. If you post anything for another writer, or for EJ, or that you might write after a conversation with EJ post that as Fred.

I second Jim's suggestion . . . .

[FRED]

Re: Seven Years, Two Warnings

Fred,

It is my impression that you are the second "Fred" that EJ has employed at least since I joined iTulip. It is further my impression that you are someone capable of admininstrating a website, that you would be to me a "computer geek" and I say that with a whole lot of respect if you qualify in that category of expertise. From time to time it is my impression that you post things for EJ and possible other invited contributors and these posts appear under the name "Fred." Other times I think you post things that are of your own doing.

There are four people who have contributed a lot to iTulip whom I for various reasons consider highly credible individuals: bart, EJ, Finster, jk (abc order) and there are others but those four stand out in my mind. I think there is a tendancy amongst readers here to treat what appears under your posting name with the same credibility as they might treat EJ's posts. Because you have not written enough opinions on iTulip that I can discern as being yours, when something like the above post appears, if you wrote it I would tend to treat it one way, and if EJ wrote it or dictated it to you to post I would treat it differently. Perhaps all this demonstrates total confusion on my part, but I would like for it to be clarified. If you, the present "Fred" post anything that is purely your opinion--then as a suggestion why not get yourself a new screen name and post it under that, such as "Fred II" or whatever you fancy as a name. If you post anything for another writer, or for EJ, or that you might write after a conversation with EJ post that as Fred.

Just a serious suggestion.

I'm the head geek here. Thank you. I take that as a compliment. When I post material for EJ or anyone else, I post "by Eric Janszen" or "by Dave Lewis" and so on. When I post as myself, I don't. From now on I'll post "by Fred" when I post as myself to eliminate that confusion.

That said, remember we got the name "Fred" from the name of the Federal Reserve database system... "Federal Reserve Economic Data" or "Fred." Fred is not intended as person per se but as a role. Necessarily there are different Fred's at different times, owing to the global nature of iTulip. To prevent spam, crashes, and other issues, this site is managed 7/24 by a combination of contractors and employees. "Fred" never sleeps. So when you report a spammer, you may get a response from me or from someone else logged in as Fred. Hope that's not too confusing.

[Andreuccio]

Re: Seven Years, Two Warnings

"Fred" never sleeps.

You ought to try to get some rest. You're lack of sleep might explain some of the deterioration we saw in this thread:

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2149

Anyway, I'm glad you cleared up the "Fred" story. I hadn't seen anything about it and I was beginning to wonder who/what Fred was. I saw some people address to EJ responses and questions to "Fred" statements, and I was wondering if maybe they were the same person. For all I know, EJ, in all his brilliance, is also schizophrenic.

Maybe to avoid confusion for new newbies, you could put a short bio of "Fred" in the staff section of the "Information" page, below Eric Janszen, Candy Janszen, Mark Readdie, etc.

[Andreuccio]

Re: Seven Years, Two Warnings

From this:

Plain English: This is a sucker's rally. How long will equities correct? Until DOW/Gold reaches 1:1. Will there be other rallies? Of course.

More on the post-bubble crash, re-inflation rally, re-inflation failure crash cycle later.

and this:

If more financial market Armageddon is coming, why is the stock market rallying? Simple. As we have heard from multiple credible sources, fund managers, who control 50% of the capital on Wall Street, are trying to ramp it through the end of October to make year end bonuses. Several we've talked to, off-the-record, have told us that they feel that this is The Last Hurrah for this market cycle. Pocket the money while you can.

Come November and December, positions will be closed out. Any iTulip readers still playing in the traffic then will need to be quick on their feet, they tell us.

from this thread http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2213, I'm going to assume you're making your third warning in seven years and two months.

I have a question. Do you have a sense of if this "reinflation failure crash" will be of the all assets down variety, or will PM's and the XAU continue up?

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Seven Years, Two Warnings

I'm the head geek here. Thank you. I take that as a compliment. When I post material for EJ or anyone else, I post "by Eric Janszen" or "by Dave Lewis" and so on. When I post as myself, I don't. From now on I'll post "by Fred" when I post as myself to eliminate that confusion.

That said, remember we got the name "Fred" from the name of the Federal Reserve database system... "Federal Reserve Economic Data" or "Fred." Fred is not intended as person per se but as a role. Necessarily there are different Fred's at different times, owing to the global nature of iTulip. To prevent spam, crashes, and other issues, this site is managed 7/24 by a combination of contractors and employees. "Fred" never sleeps. So when you report a spammer, you may get a response from me or from someone else logged in as Fred. Hope that's not too confusing.

I appreciate your time to clairfy this, "by Fred."

Your post below, "by Fred," is to me a pretty "heavy" post which now I take from what you replied above to be your own opinion--which I have no basis for knowing whether it is worth a hoot or not, whereas had EJ made the post I would definitely give it credance. Is that chart something you worked up yourself?

Seriously, if you are a real "geek," how much expertise do you have in investing?

So from now on if you post your own opinion, and it were quoted, will it show: Originally Posted by by Fred? Is that correct? How about the other "Fred's," do they ever post opinions?

Originally Posted by Fred
Plain English: This is a sucker's rally. How long will equities correct? Until DOW/Gold reaches 1:1. Will there be other rallies? Of course.

More on the post-bubble crash, re-inflation rally, re-inflation failure crash cycle later.

[zoog]

Re: Seven Years, Two Warnings

...Is that chart something you worked up yourself?...

That chart showed up yesterday morning in EJ's thread The End of the Debt and Delusion. I would assume the chart had already been put together the day before in preparations for EJ's post.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Seven Years, Two Warnings

That chart showed up yesterday morning in EJ's thread The End of the Debt and Delusion. I would assume the chart had already been put together the day before in preparations for EJ's post.

Thanks, zoog, "by Fred" should be a good poster and reference when he is copying other people's materials.

[rabot10]

Re: Seven Years, Two Warnings

I mean, see what turns up later today!

OK Big Guy it is tomorrow let's see it. My kids are counting on U