Why the Fed Didn't Raise Interest Rates

[EJ]

Re: Why the Fed Didn't Raise Interest Rates

Fearless leader... *gasp*... :eek: :confused:

Your very own chela does M3 (as does John Williams at shadowstats.com):

;)

Will all due respect, I don't believe the Fed or bond market participants have the good sense to endorse your M3.

[bart]

Re: Why the Fed Didn't Raise Interest Rates

Will all due respect, I don't believe the Fed or bond market participants have the good sense to endorse your M3.

How very diplomatic of thou, and nice return of my "serve". ;)

I honestly can't expect broad recognition and agreement with my reconstruction since I don't have the requisite "stature", regardless of how black and white and logical the process was to rebuild and publish it. Even John Williams isn't well followed and is considered way off the beaten path at best.


At least both he and I have been ridiculed many times, and I can't say I'm looking forward to step two:

All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident.
-- Arthur Schopenhauer (1788-1860)

[jk]

Re: Why the Fed Didn't Raise Interest Rates

Supporting the dollar by purchases of new U.S. debt has become the Hot Potato of global central banking. Each time the U.S. Debt Hot Potato is tossed by the current holder, a new holder has to be ready to catch and hold it, at least for a while, or all of the holders of existing U.S. debt will suffer a depreciation of reserves. So it gets tossed from one unhappy holder to the next... from Japan, to China, to oil producers, perhaps back to Japan again, for decades. The latest holder is a political not an economic arrangement. Perhaps alternative arrangements are being made, such as a floating tariff, so that some day no one has to hold to U.S. Debt Hot Potato, or maybe a mis-step or miscommunication occurs in the next hand-off and the Hot Potato gets dropped on the ground.

any predictions, anyone, on when/if the u.s. has to issue debt denominated in something other than u.s. dollars?

[bill]

Re: Why the Fed Didn't Raise Interest Rates

The question is what area can the fed inflate and or put in debt next? Not the housing market, not the stock market, not consumer debt.

It leaves cities, counties and states to take on massive debt threw bond sales or P/P for infrastructure expansion (roads,water,sewer,electric,tele,schools.public buildings,ect.). What a easy sale to the public (more debt) as needed infrastructure caused by all the real estate expansion as of late. It creates good jobs for the community ect,ect. The increased property tax income from higher assessed values will allow for new debt to be issued. New cash flow means loads of new debt. If that’s not enough collateral for new debt bring on the private/public partnerships and start handing over infrastructure ownership to the global corps. It’s a play that the private equity companies have been lining up for some time, foreseeable threw their recent acquisitions.

[bart]

Re: Why the Fed Didn't Raise Interest Rates

any predictions, anyone, on when/if the u.s. has to issue debt denominated in something other than u.s. dollars?

WAG - Aug, 3, 2013 or Sept. 3, 2014

[Finster]

Re: Why the Fed Didn't Raise Interest Rates

WAG - Aug, 3, 2013 or Sept. 3, 2014

Could you narrow that down a bit, bart?

[bart]

Re: Why the Fed Didn't Raise Interest Rates

Could you narrow that down a bit, bart?

To the hour, minute or second? ;)

It was just a Wild Ass Guess based on the Armstrong cycle.

[Uncle Jack]

Re: Why the Fed Didn't Raise Interest Rates

The question is what area can the fed inflate and or put in debt next? Not the housing market, not the stock market, not consumer debt.

It leaves cities, counties and states to take on massive debt threw bond sales or P/P for infrastructure expansion (roads,water,sewer,electric,tele,schools.public buildings,ect.). What a easy sale to the public (more debt) as needed infrastructure caused by all the real estate expansion as of late. It creates good jobs for the community ect,ect. The increased property tax income from higher assessed values will allow for new debt to be issued. New cash flow means loads of new debt.

This looks like New Deal talk to me.

[bill]

Re: Why the Fed Didn't Raise Interest Rates

A few good links http://www.csis.org/component/option...k,view/id,568/

http://www.nascocorridor.com/index.htm

http://www.cnatca.org

http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/pressroom/dot0726.htm

The PE (private equity) Firms (asset flippers) have been busy as of late,
http://www.thecarlylegroup.com/eng/n...-news3323.html


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...7J4&refer=home

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/...eek+exclusives
The holders of the US dollar debt are wanting ownership of assets not paper.

[EJ]

Re: Why the Fed Didn't Raise Interest Rates

The question is what area can the fed inflate and or put in debt next? Not the housing market, not the stock market, not consumer debt.

It leaves cities, counties and states to take on massive debt threw bond sales or P/P for infrastructure expansion (roads,water,sewer,electric,tele,schools.public buildings,ect.). What a easy sale to the public (more debt) as needed infrastructure caused by all the real estate expansion as of late. It creates good jobs for the community ect,ect. The increased property tax income from higher assessed values will allow for new debt to be issued. New cash flow means loads of new debt. If that’s not enough collateral for new debt bring on the private/public partnerships and start handing over infrastructure ownership to the global corps. It’s a play that the private equity companies have been lining up for some time, foreseeable threw their recent acquisitions.

This is precisely what happened in Japan. Once the national government had run debt to the limit permitted by law, the prefectures took over. All that's needed in the case of the US is a change in state fiscal law to allow states to run deficits. Selling assets to China may be politically difficult, but not if the US is in dire enough straights.

[jk]

Re: Why the Fed Didn't Raise Interest Rates

infrastructure funds have already been buying toll roads, bridges, etc. macquarie, an australian outfit, has been a leader, but others have gotten into the game.

[bill]

Re: Why the Fed Didn't Raise Interest Rates

This is precisely what happened in Japan. Once the national government had run debt to the limit permitted by law, the prefectures took over. All that's needed in the case of the US is a change in state fiscal law to allow states to run deficits. Selling assets to China may be politically difficult, but not if the US is in dire enough straights.

Received this from ADOT.
Preferred financing using PPP.
http://www.bqaz.gov/
http://www.bqaz.gov/PDF/20080417_Critneeds_rev1.pdf

Page 4

Within these Preliminary Critical Needs, three funds have been established to address unique
transportation-related needs:

��

Leveraging private investments for strategic roadway and rail transit corridors through

Public Private Partnerships (PPP)

page 12

Potential Public Private Partnership (PPP) Opportunities to Support Urban Growth

In compiling this Preliminary Critical Needs Definition document, it became apparent that a
number of potential new high capacity roadway corridors could be excellent candidates for a
PPP, including such projects as the North-South Freeway corridor through Pinal County from
US 60 on the north to I-10 on the south; the Val Vista Expressway/Freeway corridor
through Pinal and Maricopa counties from the future SR 303L extension on the west to the
future North-South Freeway corridor on the east; SR 303L south of SR 801 to I-8 in
Maricopa County; the Hassayampa Freeway corridor from US 93 to the future SR 303L
extension in Maricopa County; and the New River Freeway from SR 303L to I-17, as well as
the proposed intercity rail within the Sun Megapolitan Corridor and commuter rail in the
Phoenix and Tucson Metropolitan Areas. Each of these corridors:

��

Has logical termini at other existing or future high capacity corridors.

��

Serves the anticipated rapid urban growth within the Sun Corridor Megapolitan.

��

Traverses large future master planned communities or mixed use developments that
view such transportation investments as major assets and may be willing to dedicate
right-of-way.

��

Has parallel routes for users not willing to pay for the use of such a privatized
corridor.
As a result, in anticipation of the potential to implement a statewide sustainable
transportation finance mechanism, it may be appropriate to consider establishing an
inducement fund to stimulate development of such corridors. Currently, three
development/property owner groups have emerged along these corridors to explore the
opportunity of advancing corridor development through PPPs. In addition, ADOT, FHWA,
MAG and Pinal County have begun discussions on initiating corridor studies in conjunction
with an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) process, in order to establish corridor
locations as early as possible, potentially enabling right-of-way dedications from adjacent

developers and property owners.

[ocelotl]

Re: Why the Fed Didn't Raise Interest Rates

Supporting the dollar by purchases of new U.S. debt has become the Hot Potato of global central banking. Each time the U.S. Debt Hot Potato is tossed by the current holder, a new holder has to be ready to catch and hold it, at least for a while, or all of the holders of existing U.S. debt will suffer a depreciation of reserves. So it gets tossed from one unhappy holder to the next... from Japan, to China, to oil producers, perhaps back to Japan again, for decades. The latest holder is a political not an economic arrangement. Perhaps alternative arrangements are being made, such as a floating tariff, so that some day no one has to hold to U.S. Debt Hot Potato, or maybe a mis-step or miscommunication occurs in the next hand-off and the Hot Potato gets dropped on the ground.

This is being implemented by U.S. based banks throughout the world... ¿Probe? We at work just were being offered a bond with a percentage composed of USD debt from the Banamex (Citibank) local branch... If I'm supporting others debt, I'd prefer it to be in local currency and that the debt supported has some foundations. I wouldn't like to have an asset that is deflating due to exchange rate variations, as was the case when moved out of the Euro in last august.

Ms. Watanabe, Ms. Cheng and Ms. Hung are not alone in supporting US debt, ithey are beginning to be joined by Ms. Gonzalez and Ms. Guimaraes ...