Did someone say, ``Housing market recovery?''

[Tybee Island]

Re: Did someone say, ``Housing market recovery?''

In my view: I think in the end people will need to figure out away to avoid starvation and freezing. When the hunger pangs are unbearable and the frostbite has claimed your toes, there is no leadership required.

We are animal in the end and we have a primal need to attempt survival................and now back to our regularly scheduled program.

[don]

Re: Did someone say, ``Housing market recovery?''

As often as the MSM analysis has been discussed here on iTulip, it is stunning to me to see how captured they have become in the last 8 months.

It really became apparent after September, but since January the reporting has become something akin to a state-backed propaganda system reminiscent of the old soviets.

I am watching as the people that I am encountering, who never questioned their news sources before, are scratching their heads in bewilderment as they compare their own deteriorating financial positions and living standards.

At some point even Joe-six-pack is going to stop being the good little comrade and revolt.

Based upon nothing more than my intuition, I think that moment is closer at hand then the administration believes.

Maybe it begins as the former middle-class are evicted from their McMansions or they have no access to any form of credit whatsoever and they realize that a trip to the mall is futile and pointless no matter how much they want to pretend for a moment that they have the ability to buy anything. This of course assumes that their favorite mall is still open and there are any retailers left, which may be a stretch.

I know E.J. feels that we will just slow down and things will not unravel, but I have far less confidence in the average fellow citizen once they have lost everything and they don't have the intellectual capabilities to understand why as they seek someone to blame or worse.

I was at an event last night that was populated by the very foundation of business people who are the real drivers of my community. They looked shell shocked as they lamented how difficult things were becoming now. They all told of taking huge losses in the stock market this past Fall and how they couldn't sell their vacation homes. Many of these folks inherited family businesses and have been very good at carrying them forward, but they really lack any skills outside their respective trades.

The guy who runs the largest shoe store in town, the general contractor, the furniture showroom owner or the car dealership owner, can't reinvent themselves.

These folks are rubbing up against a different reality then what they see on the nightly news and it is now becoming abrasive.

Summed up, in what I'm hearing from similar folks, as "It isn't funny any more", said with a grim countenance.

[c1ue]

Re: Did someone say, ``Housing market recovery?''

Metalman, Tybee,

The stats Zillow mentions do have an amusing corollary:

If we look at the delta between those unrealistically thinking their homes kept value vs. lost value - it is very close to the number of people who are late/foreclosed on their mortgages (20%).

Coincidence?

The other thing to consider is even those who correctly ascertained that their homes lost value - how does these homeowners views on the amount loss compare with "actual" losses?

Denial comes in many forms...

[flintlock]

Re: Did someone say, ``Housing market recovery?''

the way these guys have been writing about it for years... no.

housing has no 'market to market' event like stocks... the quarterly statement that comes in the mail.

even after all the bad press, most homeowners have no idea what their home is worth... the idea of 'house as investment' still lodged in the skull after 30+ years of fire econ propaganda...



theory itulip pushes is... no race for the exits... the idea of 'housing as investment' goes away as prices go down, down, down for 15 yrs ala japan...

The idea that people have no idea what their homes are worth, very true in my area. On my street there are 5 homes for sale. One has been on the market over a year now. Zero sales. Offers are 10% or more below asking prices but nobody will take them. So they sit. I hear quotes like " I'm not giving it away" from the owners. These are vacant homes. So instead they sit on them, costing $25k a year rather than drop the price the same about and move on. Obviously they think prices are coming back. :rolleyes:

RE agents I work with tell me the same thing. Sellers are unrealistic in many cases. One agent told me he just got a listing on a $1.5 million home. He didn't seem too happy. He said he knew it would never bring close to that, and even if it did, the appraisal would cause the deal to fall through. He said he's putting in a lot of work only to see deals fall through.

To suggest housing is still headed south today is to get dirty looks and rolled eyes, so I've quit trying to warn off people.

[Jay]

Re: Did someone say, ``Housing market recovery?''

Summed up, in what I'm hearing from similar folks, as "It isn't funny any more", said with a grim countenance.

Yes, and there is a long way to go down from here, and we haven't even had real inflation yet.

[grapejelly]

Re: Did someone say, ``Housing market recovery?''

houses selling very quickly in my neighborhood. Down about 30% since 2005 but selling briskly.

The folks who move here are ALL US gubmint employees of the higher order...senior Navy peeps, lobbyists, diplomats...

Boom town.

[don]

Re: Did someone say, ``Housing market recovery?''

Today's grim anecdote:

A couple a few years back fell on hard times. He was a longtime printing salesman and work was drying up. Him and his wife were convinced they would be on easy street going into partnership with friends on a small housing development down south. They had zero construction experience but what the hey, everybody was doing it. They were reinforced each Sunday with their "Jesus wants you to be rich" congregation and easy re-finance money on their home.

No news here, it was a flat out disaster. We haven't seen either of them in some time until yesterday. He's on multiple anti-depressants. She's working full time- didn't used to. Amazingly they still are holding on to the two houses they finished. Rented out- negative, naturally- hoping to hang on. Their son is both graduating from college and getting married. They can give him nothing. (Some real-world advice would be priceless) She left with the cry, "why is God doing this to us!"

I'm afraid there's a lot of folks like these two. Wonder what near-future political pitch they might respond to :eek: ;)

[flintlock]

Re: Did someone say, ``Housing market recovery?''

Yeah, funny how its God's fault now.:rolleyes: And don't get me started on that "God wants you to be rich" crowd.

[cjppjc]

Re: Did someone say, ``Housing market recovery?''

Yeah, funny how its God's fault now.:rolleyes: And don't get me started on that "God wants you to be rich" crowd.

It would be good if instead of "God wants you to be rich." A conversation could be started with "How much is enough? What are your needs?" That conversation is not happening anywhere. Even here.

[Raz]

Re: Did someone say, ``Housing market recovery?''

The likes of Bawney Fwank & Chris Dodd are gonna need THESE kind of green chutes
when they get tossed off some high building somewhere

I'm not a "FOX Fan", but I will promise you that unless they broadcast the truth
about Barney Frank and Chris Dodd - you'll never hear it.

[Jay]

Re: Did someone say, ``Housing market recovery?''

Today's grim anecdote:

A couple a few years back fell on hard times. He was a longtime printing salesman and work was drying up. Him and his wife were convinced they would be on easy street going into partnership with friends on a small housing development down south. They had zero construction experience but what the hey, everybody was doing it. They were reinforced each Sunday with their "Jesus wants you to be rich" congregation and easy re-finance money on their home.

No news here, it was a flat out disaster. We haven't seen either of them in some time until yesterday. He's on multiple anti-depressants. She's working full time- didn't used to. Amazingly they still are holding on to the two houses they finished. Rented out- negative, naturally- hoping to hang on. Their son is both graduating from college and getting married. They can give him nothing. (Some real-world advice would be priceless) She left with the cry, "why is God doing this to us!"

I'm afraid there's a lot of folks like these two. Wonder what near-future political pitch they might respond to :eek: ;)

The lowest man on the totem pole usually takes it on the chin hardest. That would likely be Mexican immigrants.
"They stole our jobs!"
"They use our health care system for free!"
"They don't pay taxes!"
And of course, "They brought swine flu!"

[Guest]

Re: Did someone say, ``Housing market recovery?''

This is a real pic of a group of real estate agents - somewhere on the mid-eastern seaboard - they got a write up a year ago (I think it was on Bloomberg, or CNN), for a "prayer meet" to pray for a revival in real estate. Dumb as bricks as to the earthly reasons for their hardship apparently.

Makes an amusing photo cameo a year later, but that's about all the use this confab ever had. Anyway, I thought when one went to pray to God, one was supposed to keep one's mind pure of material matters? Praying for one's personal wealth to return, now there's a nice parochial mindset about the meaning of God and eternity. :rolleyes:

realestatepray.jpeg

[The Outback Oracle]

Re: Did someone say, ``Housing market recovery?''

It would be good if instead of "God wants you to be rich." A conversation could be started with "How much is enough? What are your needs?" That conversation is not happening anywhere. Even here.

Crikey! With all the doom (aka realism) around here no amount of money is enough! No matter how much it is, it can disappear in either a world of deflation or inflation. That's my visceral feeling!

I do however agree that you ask a question that we, as a society, should have asked ourselves long ago.

[medved]

Re: Did someone say, ``Housing market recovery?''

Crikey! With all the doom (aka realism) around here no amount of money is enough! No matter how much it is, it can disappear in either a world of deflation or inflation. That's my visceral feeling!

Money does not matter. Both inflation and deflation can be controlled by the gov't, if it has enough power (and it will). If gov't can control interest rates and print money, why cannot it extinguish the ..lation monster? That's easy.

The problem is, no effort by even a super powerful gov't can run the real economy. No matter inflation or deflation (or none), the real economy will get progressively worse.

It would be good if instead of "God wants you to be rich." A conversation could be started with "How much is enough? What are your needs?" That conversation is not happening anywhere. Even here.

Modern christian faith in god is harmless, maximum it can do, if practiced wrong, is hurt the practitioner himself.

Modern socialist faith in gov't is deadly for the society.

[Master Shake]

Re: Did someone say, ``Housing market recovery?''

I'm not a "FOX Fan", but I will promise you that unless they broadcast the truth
about Barney Frank and Chris Dodd - you'll never hear it.

You are correct, sir. In fact, you'll probably hear quite the opposite from the rest of the MSM, how Barney and Chris are working to help protect the little guys from evil businessmen.