Did someone say, ``Housing market recovery?''

[mcgurme]

Re: Did someone say, ``Housing market recovery?''

This is a real pic of a group of real estate agents - somewhere on the mid-eastern seaboard - they got a write up a year ago (I think it was on Bloomberg, or CNN), for a "prayer meet" to pray for a revival in real estate. Dumb as bricks as to the earthly reasons for their hardship apparently.

Makes an amusing photo cameo a year later, but that's about all the use this confab ever had. Anyway, I thought when one went to pray to God, one was supposed to keep one's mind pure of material matters? Praying for one's personal wealth to return, now there's a nice parochial mindset about the meaning of God and eternity. :rolleyes:

[ATTACH]1654[/ATTACH]

I grew up as a non-believer in a place surrounded by ardent believers. Funny enough, I now live in a place with mostly non-believers (a college town, of course!), yet find myself re-discovering a sense of spirituality. I'm writing a book related to this.

I haven't read a lot of religious writings, so I don't have that baggage to carry around. But I've read widely on many things, and that combined with my real world experiences has led me to a conclusion: material wealth never brings happiness, once you are fed, clothed, and sheltered. (I put that in bold to forestall the inevitable sarcastic replies about hunger, etc). It seems clear that spirituality is about finding meaning in life beyond material wants. I have my own ideas about what finding meaning is. You'll have to wait for the book for the full exposition, but to give a hint, it is in creativity and productivity (not productivity in the industrial sense, much more broadly defined).

Somewhere along the way, it seems to me that nearly all religions have gotten hijacked by greed for material wealth and power. And they have convinced many of their followers to ignore the teachings written in their most sacred texts, to lust after material wealth rather than true spirituality.

America became rich because we worked hard and worked creatively, not because we were ordained by God to become rich.

America will become broke because we take for granted that our wealth was ordained by God, and that therefore we don't have to work hard for it (as exemplified by your photo).

The hard work is the precursor, and if one is lucky enough to live in a place and time where ones productivity is not stolen by others, wealth may follow.

M

[Guest]

Re: Did someone say, ``Housing market recovery?''

Spot on McGurme. I identify with this personally in an avocation I have had for 25 years which puts me into a seventh heaven merely by the doing this kind of "work". If I ever move it to the next step and make a living from it I will literally have found my heaven on earth. Creativity produces great happiness. Puts you close to God (if he's in fact there).

I've always said if I wound up on a desert Island I could find ways to fascinate myself endlessly with this pursuit. I lose track of time within it, and after an entire day spent in this work I feel I'm carrying around a sort of glow inside that lasts clear through into the next day. I know exactly what you are talking about.

I think 200 years from now, if our species survives, 80% of people born wll be engaged nearly full time in such pursuits while robotics, limitless fusion energy, nanotech and lord knows what other miracles, provide us with lives of leisure. I don't wish however to forget that such a "fantasy" runs cruelly against the reality of the world today for 1/3 or more of it's people who exist in the ugliest battle for mere survival.

But I think 200 years from now many many people would be afforded the "choice" in life, to spend their lives in pursuit of only such creative endeavors. They do bring joy. Of course. Meanwhile these realtors praying for their business seem like a curious artifact of ignorance in 2009 America. Ignorance about what would allow their business to resume, and ignorance about the meaning of prayer.

Even I know that much, and I'm a lifelong agnostic. Don't know what's the matter with those block-heads.

... to give a hint, it is in creativity and productivity (not productivity in the industrial sense, much more broadly defined).... The hard work is the precursor, and if one is lucky enough to live in a place and time where ones productivity is not stolen by others, wealth may follow.

[don]

Re: Did someone say, ``Housing market recovery?''

This is a real pic of a group of real estate agents - somewhere on the mid-eastern seaboard - they got a write up a year ago (I think it was on Bloomberg, or CNN), for a "prayer meet" to pray for a revival in real estate. Dumb as bricks as to the earthly reasons for their hardship apparently.

Makes an amusing photo cameo a year later, but that's about all the use this confab ever had. Anyway, I thought when one went to pray to God, one was supposed to keep one's mind pure of material matters? Praying for one's personal wealth to return, now there's a nice parochial mindset about the meaning of God and eternity. :rolleyes:

[ATTACH]1654[/ATTACH]

Reminds me of the "bury a Saint Statue in the yard to insure a sale" craze of about that time. Can't remember what saint it took. Did it have to face in a specific direction. Being Christian, not towards Mecca. Maybe flat on its back, pointing up towards heaven.

[metalman]

Re: Did someone say, ``Housing market recovery?''

I sincerely appreciate your response and I am aware of the argument, however I am not a subscriber to it.

When we permitted homes to become ATM's and showed Joe-six-pack that he could lever up and consume with a belief that housing values would only continue to rise in the future and there would never be a problem accessing more credit we moved out of the historical performance of housing and real estate and into a new mutated reality. We gave him a taste of wealth that he had never had access to before. What was once reserved for only the moneyed on Wall Street was now mainstream and simple in its workings and ability to replicate.

Homes no longer were about shelter, and proximity to good schools and access to stable neighborhoods, but became the equivalent of a drug that tightened its hold as the addiction became acute.

hudson nailed it way back in 2006 put it this way...

Most members of the rentier class are very rich. One might like to join that class. And so our paradox (seemingly) is resolved. With the real estate boom, the great mass of Americans can take on colossal debt today and realize colossal capital gains—and the concomitant rentier life of leisure—tomorrow. If you have the wherewithal to fill out a mortgage application, then you need never work again. What could be more inviting—or, for that matter, more egalitarian?

That’s the pitch, anyway. The reality is that, although home ownership may be a wise choice for many people, this particular real estate bubble has been carefully engineered to lure home buyers into circumstances detrimental to their own best interests. The bait is easy money. The trap is a modern equivalent to peonage, a lifetime spent working to pay off debt on an asset of rapidly dwindling value.

Most everyone involved in the real estate bubble thus far has made at least a few dollars. But that is about to change. The bubble will burst, and when it does, the people who thought they would be living the easy life of a landlord will soon find that what they really signed up for was the hard servitude of debt serfdom.

as to your comment...

The experiment will play out differently then what we can statistically model on past experiences in my humble view.

who knows what j6p the doomed wannabe rentier does if he ever figures out he fell for a huge scam? but how will he ever find out? he blames himself. the msm says he was 'stupid' and 'irresponsible'. he will never learn by reading the nyt or wsj or parade mag or usa today, or watching opra or larry king... the housing bubble was a scam sold by fire industry's media outlets... aka 'the media'... just like the others..

remember the dot com/telco scam? remember enron? more scams that j6p will never know.

switch the subject... move the focus... re-frame the debate... muddy the waters... start anew...

gigantic economic crimes... built up... run to exhaustion... blown up... then burried... forgotten...

over and over... all debt financed... until?

until we're out of credit...

poom!

[metalman]

Re: Did someone say, ``Housing market recovery?''

The idea that people have no idea what their homes are worth, very true in my area. On my street there are 5 homes for sale. One has been on the market over a year now. Zero sales. Offers are 10% or more below asking prices but nobody will take them. So they sit. I hear quotes like " I'm not giving it away" from the owners. These are vacant homes. So instead they sit on them, costing $25k a year rather than drop the price the same about and move on. Obviously they think prices are coming back. :rolleyes:

RE agents I work with tell me the same thing. Sellers are unrealistic in many cases. One agent told me he just got a listing on a $1.5 million home. He didn't seem too happy. He said he knew it would never bring close to that, and even if it did, the appraisal would cause the deal to fall through. He said he's putting in a lot of work only to see deals fall through.

To suggest housing is still headed south today is to get dirty looks and rolled eyes, so I've quit trying to warn off people.

they still believe in the rentier dream.

don't tell them that's it's a nightmare. don't say anything. that's what i learned. keep your mouth shut. after they figure it out, be 100% sympathetic with no 'i told you so'.

[Guest]

Re: Did someone say, ``Housing market recovery?''

Yeah, and the prayer associated with this ritual icon invocation was probably "Please God, give me one last 'multiple bids' sale, so I can jack up the accepted bid price!" :rolleyes:

Reminds me of the "bury a Saint Statue in the yard to insure a sale" craze of about that time. Can't remember what saint it took. Did it have to face in a specific direction. Being Christian, not towards Mecca. Maybe flat on its back, pointing up towards heaven.

[LargoWinch]

Re: Did someone say, ``Housing market recovery?''

To suggest housing is still headed south today is to get dirty looks and rolled eyes, so I've quit trying to warn off people.

I have given up too flintlock. Here is why:

May 31, 2009

This four-bedroom semi-detached home near Danforth Ave. was listed for $549,000 but went for $715,000 — 30 per cent above the asking price.

Article dated May 31, 2009 here.

FIRE economy dead? What is FIRE? Anyway, we all know that Toronto is as far as FIRE as it gets.

Can you imagine if guys like the above go after Gold? It will be like trying to empty the Hoover dam with a garden hose...

[audrey_girl]

Re: Did someone say, ``Housing market recovery?''

Yeah, and the prayer associated with this ritual icon invocation was probably "Please God, give me one last 'multiple bids' sale, so I can jack up the accepted bid price!" :rolleyes:

didn't someone mention on a thread here a bumper sticker they once saw:

"Dear God - Please grant me one more bubble before I die."

[Guest]

Re: Did someone say, ``Housing market recovery?''

Audrey_girl -

That quote I think was coined in it's original by the Canadian oilmen (in Alberta?), after the "last" oil boom.

One of our Canadian colleagues must inform us of the memorable line verbatim, but it went something like: "dear God, please grant us one more oil boom, and we promise we won't screw it up this time".

Seems those disillusioned oilmen this time around appear on track to get TWO "oil booms" back to back (2000-2008 & 2009-????). Or alternatively we could re-label it one loooong oil boom with a big "hiccup" in the middle where 2008 was.

BTW, did anyone notice how GRG55 took his sabbatical year off to build his bunker, precisely in the interval between the two oil booms? That guy does not gladly tolerate down-time during his stints working in the petroleum patch apparently. :p

didn't someone mention on a thread here a bumper sticker they once saw:

"Dear God - Please grant me one more bubble before I die."

[Prazak]

Re: Did someone say, ``Housing market recovery?''

houses selling very quickly in my neighborhood. Down about 30% since 2005 but selling briskly.

The folks who move here are ALL US gubmint employees of the higher order...senior Navy peeps, lobbyists, diplomats...

Boom town.

Sounds like we're neighbors, Grape. Not sure whether to be glad in a self-interested way that this company town underwrites a baseline in the local economy or to be appalled at the circus. Or both.

[Prazak]

Re: Did someone say, ``Housing market recovery?''

Modern christian faith in god is harmless, maximum it can do, if practiced wrong, is hurt the practitioner himself.

I'd like to believe that, Medved. But try telling that this evening to the family of Dr George Tiller of Wichita Kansas.

[Prazak]

Re: Did someone say, ``Housing market recovery?''

Spot on McGurme. I identify with this personally in an avocation I have had for 25 years which puts me into a seventh heaven merely by the doing this kind of "work". If I ever move it to the next step and make a living from it I will literally have found my heaven on earth. Creativity produces great happiness. Puts you close to God (if he's in fact there).

I've always said if I wound up on a desert Island I could find ways to fascinate myself endlessly with this pursuit. I lose track of time within it, and after an entire day spent in this work I feel I'm carrying around a sort of glow inside that lasts clear through into the next day. I know exactly what you are talking about.

I think 200 years from now, if our species survives, 80% of people born wll be engaged nearly full time in such pursuits while robotics, limitless fusion energy, nanotech and lord knows what other miracles, provide us with lives of leisure. I don't wish however to forget that such a "fantasy" runs cruelly against the reality of the world today for 1/3 or more of it's people who exist in the ugliest battle for mere survival.

But I think 200 years from now many many people would be afforded the "choice" in life, to spend their lives in pursuit of only such creative endeavors. They do bring joy. Of course. Meanwhile these realtors praying for their business seem like a curious artifact of ignorance in 2009 America. Ignorance about what would allow their business to resume, and ignorance about the meaning of prayer.

Even I know that much, and I'm a lifelong agnostic. Don't know what's the matter with those block-heads.

"We'll be clean when that work is done, we'll be eternally free, yes, and eternally young. What a wonderful world this will be . . ."

Sorry to be a smart-allek because I agree completely with what you and McGurme have said about creativity and productivity. And I admire your vision of the future. But I was just brought to mind of one of my favorite Donald Fagen tunes and couldn't help myself.

Off topic here, but you and McGurme might enjoy some of the writings of Mihaly Csikszentmihaly, a Hungarian-American psychiatrist. "Finding Flow" is a good one.

[ax]

Re: Did someone say, ``Housing market recovery?''

Yes, and there is a long way to go down from here, and we haven't even had real inflation yet.

As anecdotal evidence from the Phoenix area, the worst of the worst, my father told me a group of investors from California recently bought 500 inventory homes from distressed builders for about $65K each with the intent of turning them around in 30-60 days. They were listing for about $130K. I think this is similar to what Tybee has been saying (although still too high a price to pay?).

What bothers me is that transactions like this, where the same house might sell 2X in one month, will inflate home sale stats while driving prices into the ground.

[phanatic]

Re: Did someone say, ``Housing market recovery?''

ARM resets: Time's up!

When we wrote Fueling the FIRE Economy in March 2007, we noted that the U.S. housing market was 26 months away from a wave of ARM resets. Well, 26 months is up!

As I see it, the only way out of this reset massacre is if interest rates remain at very close to the initial teaser rate of these loans until home values recover enough to allow borrowers to refinance without writing a hefty check at closing. Can you say massive "QE" for the next three years? With interest rate going up sharply this week it looks like the latest $300 billion of treasury purchases by the Fed is not nearly enough. Is it really possible to keep rates this low for another 3 years with all of the borrowing and spending this administration is doing?

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Did someone say, ``Housing market recovery?''

As I see it, the only way out of this reset massacre is if interest rates remain at very close to the initial teaser rate of these loans until home values recover enough to allow borrowers to refinance without writing a hefty check at closing. Can you say massive "QE" for the next three years? With interest rate going up sharply this week it looks like the latest $300 billion of treasury purchases by the Fed is not nearly enough. Is it really possible to keep rates this low for another 3 years with all of the borrowing and spending this administration is doing?

I don't see that happening. Everyone with a pulse who held Treasuries or dollars would dump them before the 3 years was up, leaving the United States entirely isolated economically. No one outside the US borders would trade a single slice of liverwurst with us for all the dollars in the world.

The Fed would only do it if they figured the exposed home owners were more important than the dollar -- no way. If they did it, they'd destroy the dollar and the nation, its economy and its FIRE corporations ... and they know it. "The operation was a success, but the patient died."