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The Cisco “Beat By a Penny” Kid dayz are back.

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  • The Cisco “Beat By a Penny” Kid dayz are back.

    Remember back in 2000 when the Bubbleheads told us Cisco “Beat By a Penny” Kid, beat estimates by a penny and the market went CRAZY and somehow that made sense? In those days it all made sense because every single one of us Bagholders held some Cisco “Beat By a Penny” Kid didn’t we? You couldn’t own stocks and not own Cisco in those days. Janus 20, and all the tech funds all had Cisco. We were all making a very, very large fortune in our somewhat demented minds at the time weren’t we? Cisco “Beat By a Penny” Kid, Intel, Sun Micro, Qualcomm, Good Ole Softie, they were the Nifty Fifty of 2000.

    It certainly didn’t matter that Cisco “Beat By a Penny” Kid used Proforma earnings that didn’t include salaries, rent, or material because their Arthor Anderson auditors had determined these were all one-time expenses, because they were only paid once a month. Nothing mattered, as long as Cisco, Beat by a Penny Kid, was beating by a penny in those days meant everything, of course increased revenue from companies that were just purchased and forecasts calling for continued beating earnings by a penny and continued revenue growth for as far as the eye could see helped as well.

    Today Cisco “Beat By a Penny” Kid, ended up six tenths of a point ahead and had a 3.2% spread from top to bottom for the day. THREE POINT TWO PERCENT SPREAD, holy shit, I lost and made more money today then I have done in a long, long time. After-hours Cisco “Beat By a Penny” Kid is up almost 6% for an additional 9% spread today. If you count after-hours today Qualcomm had about an 8% spread. As far back as I can remember, whenever you get this much volatility during earnings the market either breaks completely down or goes for a very large Moon Shot. The weak hands are getting taken out back of the woodshed and having the crap kicked out of them. It doesn’t matter if you’re long or short, if your hand is weak you’re taking a beating. Wall Street and the Casino are firmly in control of direction, so it’s all a matter of which direction they want to go, I get the feeling some of these Wall Street firms view some of these upstart Hedge Funds as the competition. Wouldn't shock me to see Wall Street trounce
    the crap out of these Hedge Funds by taking the market higher.

    Not sure what it’s going to be, but we are going to get some serious direction pretty soon. Wall Street and the Casino has to entice Joe and Jane gambler to come back into the casino and the only way that’s going to happen is for there to appear to be some million to one shot payoffs going on. I’m beginning to hear the sound of coins falling into slot machine payoffs now. Ding, ding, ding, ding, ding.

    What a wild day, between the Fed and Cisco and at first when Cisco announced it Beat By a Penny and dropped 1% and now it’s up almost an additional 6% after-hours. Unbelievable to think that maybe just maybe those Cisco “Beat By a Penny” Kid days are back again.
    Last edited by Tet; August 07, 2007, 06:39 PM.
    "Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one."
    - Charles Mackay

  • #2
    Re: The Cisco “Beat By a Penny” Kid dayz are back.

    Originally posted by Jim Nickerson View Post
    http://www.financialsense.com/Market/goldberg/main.html

    Martin Goldberg notes:


    He presents his analyses on Regional Bank Holders, CFC, shows one mortgage insurance company's chart and mentions two others--the three MTG, PMI, RDN. I suggest going to http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/interchart/interchart.asp?symb=mtg&draw.x=53&draw.y=12 and look at those three symbols in a decade time frame. Bummers, all.



    He also suggests how CSCO reacts next Tuesday could be important:




    I think Goldberg is quite good when he presents the Thursday Market WrapUp on Financial Sense.



    Specifically, Goldberg wrote:
    Originally posted by Goldberg
    the all important Cisco Systems is braving the market’s downtrend and its action over the next few weeks may tell us volumes about whether we have seen a market top or whether there will be more upside. Cisco has traced a long term cup-with-handle pattern which dates back to 2003. As illustrated in the chart below, Cisco has tried to break out of the handle portion just when the recent market correction began. Rather than fail along with the overall market, Cisco has stayed relatively strong. It reports its quarterly earnings on Tuesday, and this should be a long term Cisco moment of truth. (Excessively good or bad news could have a profound effect on the overall disposition of the stock market.)


    So perhaps Cisco Kid--it took me about 10 minutes to figure out where the "Kid" came in, during which time I was cursing TET for his "weird sense of humor" that I was not catching--will light a torch under the market tomorrow. Since I tripled some short positons today, a good bet tomorrow will be "5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Liftoff!!!
    Jim 69 y/o

    "...Texans...the lowest form of white man there is." Robert Duvall, as Al Sieber, in "Geronimo." (see "Location" for examples.)

    Dedicated to the idea that all people deserve a chance for a healthy productive life. B&M Gates Fdn.

    Good judgement comes from experience; experience comes from bad judgement. Unknown.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: The Cisco “Beat By a Penny” Kid dayz are back.

      Originally posted by Jim Nickerson View Post
      Specifically, Goldberg wrote:

      So perhaps Cisco Kid--it took me about 10 minutes to figure out where the "Kid" came in, during which time I was cursing TET for his "weird sense of humor" that I was not catching--will light a torch under the market tomorrow. Since I tripled some short positons today, a good bet tomorrow will be "5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Liftoff!!!
      You've got my luck. I'm usually pretty good at being off a day or two when I go short. Unfortunately a day or two is all I give my short bets. Goldberg in his list of articles states his case for why October of 2002 wasn't the bottom and it turned out to be the bottom. Looks like Goldberg is a one track pony, I can't imagine since 2002 there wasn't a good time to be long in this market.

      Here's the chart he's got on Cisco, I don't see what he's talking about, his banking picks I agree with they've all got something Cisco ain't got and that's volume.



      Maybe it's just me, I've never seen anyone draw a three year cup and handle. Breakdowns and accummulations all seem to occur with at least 500 million volume spikes, I don't see that here. Looks like a breakout to me and no I don't hold any Cisco.

      Three month daily.



      No great feel one way or the other, maybe tomorrow it shows some volume.
      "Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one."
      - Charles Mackay

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: The Cisco “Beat By a Penny” Kid dayz are back.

        Originally posted by Tet View Post
        You've got my luck. I'm usually pretty good at being off a day or two when I go short. Unfortunately a day or two is all I give my short bets. Goldberg in his list of articles states his case for why October of 2002 wasn't the bottom and it turned out to be the bottom. Looks like Goldberg is a one track pony, I can't imagine since 2002 there wasn't a good time to be long in this market.

        Here's the chart he's got on Cisco, I don't see what he's talking about, his banking picks I agree with they've all got something Cisco ain't got and that's volume.



        Maybe it's just me, I've never seen anyone draw a three year cup and handle. Breakdowns and accummulations all seem to occur with at least 500 million volume spikes, I don't see that here. Looks like a breakout to me and no I don't hold any Cisco.

        Three month daily.



        No great feel one way or the other, maybe tomorrow it shows some volume.
        I appreciate your perspectives, Tet, it shows the value of putting things up when and if others find interest enough to think. The "cup and handle" formation is rather esoteric to me, and nothing I would ever look for or see even if it is in the charts.

        Some smart people I know did not buy into the markets coming off the 10/02 lows until they were retested and broke out in March 03 which even then was not a bad time to go long.

        I hope you are correct about your volume observation on the "Kid."
        Jim 69 y/o

        "...Texans...the lowest form of white man there is." Robert Duvall, as Al Sieber, in "Geronimo." (see "Location" for examples.)

        Dedicated to the idea that all people deserve a chance for a healthy productive life. B&M Gates Fdn.

        Good judgement comes from experience; experience comes from bad judgement. Unknown.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: The Cisco “Beat By a Penny” Kid dayz are back.

          Originally posted by Jim Nickerson View Post
          I appreciate your perspectives, Tet, it shows the value of putting things up when and if others find interest enough to think. The "cup and handle" formation is rather esoteric to me, and nothing I would ever look for or see even if it is in the charts.

          Some smart people I know did not buy into the markets coming off the 10/02 lows until they were retested and broke out in March 03 which even then was not a bad time to go long.

          I hope you are correct about your volume observation on the "Kid."
          Maybe a double top would be the breakdown here from a chart standpoint, but I think the Kid already broke through that high at about $30, maybe that high wasn't a closing high though. As always, TWT.
          "Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one."
          - Charles Mackay

          Comment

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