Quite the Asshanding today

[Tet]

Don't think I'll be retiring next week after today's sell-off. Just another of those 2pm late Friday afternoon wipe-outs. Greed and Fear is going to decide what happens on Monday, I wonder how the MSM spins the damage today. Buying opportunity of a lifetime, or sell with both hands while you still can come Monday. I wonder if they roll out the Oracle of Omaha this weekend like they rolled him out after 9-11 telling us Warren was going to be doing some buying. Or do they roll out a doom and gloomer telling us the world is about to end. Gold up $8 today, Uncle Buck almost below 80, things are getting interesting.

[Tet]

Re: Quite the Asshanding today

Don't think I'll be retiring next week after today's sell-off. Just another of those 2pm late Friday afternoon wipe-outs. Greed and Fear is going to decide what happens on Monday, I wonder how the MSM spins the damage today. Buying opportunity of a lifetime, or sell with both hands while you still can come Monday. I wonder if they roll out the Oracle of Omaha this weekend like they rolled him out after 9-11 telling us Warren was going to be doing some buying. Or do they roll out a doom and gloomer telling us the world is about to end. Gold up $8 today, Uncle Buck almost below 80, things are getting interesting.

Hey, wow another asshanding today, nothing made money today except the shorts, and even then you needed to be short overnight from 2:30pm yesterday. They aren't making this easy for either side that's for sure.

[Uncle Jack]

Re: Quite the Asshanding today

Don't think I'll be retiring next week after today's sell-off. Just another of those 2pm late Friday afternoon wipe-outs.

It's Thursday. More fun tomorrow, Friday!

Ha!

[DemonD]

Re: Quite the Asshanding today

BTW and I'll try to post this other ways, but I heard an analyst on the radio the other day say something that a lot of the late afternoon rallies are actually computers in China doing automatic transactions. Apparently there are all sorts of "computer trading" programs out there that will just automatically buy or sell... I really have no idea how this works but I wouldn't be surprised if a few hundred million of late afternoon volume was the Chinese doing funny stuff with the market (as opposed to a PPT or SPT [that's surge protection team which supposedly keeps the markets cool]).

[c1ue]

Re: Quite the Asshanding today

BTW and I'll try to post this other ways, but I heard an analyst on the radio the other day say something that a lot of the late afternoon rallies are actually computers in China doing automatic transactions.

This sounds suspiciously like the Overstock.com CEO blaming the illuminati/hedge funds for shorting his stock.;)

The hedge fund redemption/cash crunch idea is less tin-foil-hat-y.

Also I think a lot of the quant funds are changing algorithms; the markets are showing much more 'all or nothing' behavior recently in that 1/3 of the time, all sectors are either up or down.

This would tend to skew quants to be trigger happy even more than normal since there are no longer any safe havens to run to.

[DemonD]

Re: Quite the Asshanding today

The econo-analyst on the radio basically stated that the biggest quant fund in the world is the quant fund that controls Chinese dollars - he didn't use the words "quant fund" but did state "automatic computer trading."

It doesn't take a lot of money to swing the market one way (when you have a trillion+ that is). Just a few hundred million can start a market swing and china certainly has the dollars to swing the markets that way.

I'm not saying that is what happening, just what I heard a guy on the radio say. I don't remember his name... wait a minute. I can look it up.

Peter Navarro, PhD. He wrote a book called "The Coming China Wars" and talks a lot about China-US economic policies. http://www.peternavarro.com/

The local radio station in LA has him on because he's local (UC Irvine), and he gives good insights on China, and more broadly Asia and the global markets.

I think I have another suggestion to put up on the suggestion list.

[bart]

Re: Quite the Asshanding today

For perspective, computer program trading per the NYSE itself, has been running at 30-40% of all trades for 2007, and 35-40% recently. Program trading has averaged 25-30% since 2000 too, so China is likely a minor factor.

Since daily dollar volume of the NYSE is about $85 billion for 2007, that's about $30 billion per day being traded by the black boxes.

[DemonD]

Re: Quite the Asshanding today

30 billion? that's about what, 3% of china's US dollar reserves? While it may be hard to think of it that way, China could easily be trading 30 billion/day.

Again, I'm not saying it is, I'm just saying that someone put it out there and it's an idea I've thought about and makes some sense. Does anyone have more dollars than China? So wouldn't they be able to swing the markets if they were doing black-box trading more than anyone?

[c1ue]

Re: Quite the Asshanding today

DD,

There are a number of nation's with sovereign funds - official or not.

The Gulf countries including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, etc.

Japan also has a big stack of dollars, and for that matter Singapore and Taiwan.

Lastly the UK is a big holder of US treasuries.

While it is possible that China is rocking the boat, I think it is safer to believe that everyone everywhere is in a tizzy due to recent market events, but that no one in particular is able to positively influence market behavior in their favor - at least thus far.

The multiple runups/free falls just indicate to me a herd-like fight/flee response; the computer trading is no different.