If I were Bill Ford

[Tet]

Fortunately for me I won't be buying any Ford Motor because the stock doesn't sell for over $15, which is my minimum requirement. I've been wondering for the last year or so if the Ford Family isn't actively taking this stock private again. I would think the Ford Family would get a greater return on their investment if the stock weren’t trading on the NYSE. From everything I've read the Ford Family still owns at least 60% of the stock in trusts and through personal ownership. At today's market cap if the Fords still held 60% they'd only need $6 billion to take this stock private again. Wouldn't shock me to find out the Ford's have been accumulating this stock for the last few years, back in December 2006 Ford had several 100 million volume days in the high $6, low $7 price range. Certainly if I was Bill Ford I'd want to take the stock private in the $6 to $7 range not the $15 to $20 range.

Not quite sure how you'd go about playing this from an investment standpoint other than buy the dips and sell the tops, there does seem to be a pretty good spread. I would think the Ford's would time their announcement of a buyback at a time where you wouldn't get much of a premium for the purchase.




As always I'd bet things aren't what they appear. Ford has some very valuable assets in China and any revaluation of the Yuan will make those assets even more valuable still. Ford's real estate holdings and Ford's finance division would certainly be more profitable if they were run privately as opposed to publicly. Just something to think about on what is a pretty uneventful trading day.

[c1ue]

Re: If I were Bill Ford

Tet,

Why do you have a stock price point of $15 as opposed to a market cap, revenue threshold, or some other non-arbitrary number?

As for the Ford family taking it private - I would think the loans just aren't there to be had.

[Tet]

Re: If I were Bill Ford

Tet,

Why do you have a stock price point of $15 as opposed to a market cap, revenue threshold, or some other non-arbitrary number?

As for the Ford family taking it private - I would think the loans just aren't there to be had.

$15 is just one of many rules I use, plenty of stocks to choose from, market cap or a revenue number these days just takes an extra moment or two in order to find out the info, probably just as good. The trick is to narrow your focus of what you're researching and the rules might as well be easy to use since there are thousands of stocks to pick from. I've never felt I've missed out, GM was a better performer than Ford last year and I bought GM.

Ford already found the financing I don't question that. Those are huge accumulation volume spikes back in December of last year, the Ford's can line up plenty of allies for a takeover, vendors, banks, family friends. The Ford's never wanted the company to go public to begin with, the reason there's a Ford at the helm isn't to make it a better car company, it's to take the company private, just too many advantages for having a private company.