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Tortilla Prices Spark Inflation, Driving Down Mexico's Peso

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  • Tortilla Prices Spark Inflation, Driving Down Mexico's Peso

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...r=latinamerica
    Tortilla Pact

    President Felipe Calderon, seeking to shore up support for his administration less than two months after taking office, arranged a price freeze with tortilla makers on Jan. 18. The rise in corn may lead to price increases at tortillerias, as small tortilla shops are known, once the government accord ends next month. Higher corn prices are also driving up the cost of livestock feed, eggs, chicken and beef.

    ``Risks for the peso will begin at the end of April or beginning of May when the pact ends, inflation pressures begin to mount and demand for bonds drops,'' said Luis Raul Rodriguez, head economist at Vector Casa de Bolsa SA, a brokerage in Mexico City. ``It'll be a dangerous moment.''

    Under the agreement, tortilla shops agreed to hold prices at a maximum of 8.5 pesos ($0.76) a kilogram, down about 2.5 pesos from the highest prices at the time.

    Calderon also dispatched 380 consumer protection agency officials to crack down on cheating and record prices at shops throughout the country. The agency began publishing those prices on its Web site to try to foster competition. They report on about 180 shops in Mexico City alone.

    Enchiladas, Quesadillas

    ``We need citizens to call and complain and report tortilla shops that are exploiting the situation,'' Gladis Lopez, head of the agency's enforcement department, said in an interview in Mexico City. ``We're getting there.''

    Historians track the tortilla back about 1,000 years, when the Mayans controlled much of present-day southern Mexico from their base in the Yucatan peninsula. A flat bread made out of ground corn, quicklime and water, the tortilla is served at breakfast, lunch and dinner in many Mexican households. It's featured in some of the country's most famous dishes including tacos, enchiladas, quesadillas and flautas.

    The tortilla accounts for almost half of the calories the average Mexican consumes each day. Lula Martin del Campo, head chef at HSBC Holdings Plc in Mexico City, said there's no food that has similar importance in the U.S. diet.

    ``The majority of poor Mexicans use tortillas as their forks and knives,'' Martin del Campo said.



    Core Inflation

    Calderon's measures pushed down tortilla prices 1.3 percent in the first half of February after they rose 8.8 percent in the previous two months.

    The drop slowed a surge in the core inflation rate, the price gauge most closely watched by analysts in Latin America's second-biggest economy. The annual core rate, which excludes energy and some fresh foods, was 3.95 percent in the 12 months through mid-February, the highest rate since August 2002. The core rate was 3.89 percent in January.

    Mexico's overall inflation rate rose to 4.1 percent in the 12 months through mid-February, above the central bank's target range of 2 percent to 4 percent.

    Central bankers said after a policy meeting on Feb. 23 that they would lift the country's benchmark lending rate from 7 percent, a 2 1/2-year low, should core inflation fail to slow. They also said they were concerned that rising tortilla prices would ``contaminate'' inflation expectations and lead workers to demand bigger pay increases.
    Bizarre that in 2007 something like this happens, the Romans had the exact same problem with bread and their poor. But I will let you in on a little secret; this is just a symptom of Globalization and the liquidity problem. Ah, you want to know why! Well, let me tell you, follow the money…


    -Sapiens
    Last edited by Sapiens; April 17, 2007, 10:34 AM.

  • #2
    Re: Tortilla Prices Spark Inflation, Driving Down Mexico's Peso

    Originally posted by Sapiens
    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...r=latinamerica


    Bizarre that in 2007 something like this happens, the Romans had the exact same problem with bread and their poor. But I will let you in on a little secret; this is just a symptom of Globalization and the liquidity problem. Ah, you want to know why! Well, let me tell you, follow the money…


    -Sapiens
    When I saw this headline on Bloomberg this morning, I didn't know whether to laugh or throw up. Even the barest suggestion that tortillas could somehow cause inflation is preposterous. As Milton Friedman famously quipped, inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.

    You got it right, Sapiens. We're looking at a symptom here, not a cause.
    Finster
    ...

    Comment


    • #3
      Mexico's tortilla riots

      http://cmg.bloggingstocks.com/2007/0...ortilla-riots/

      The problem is ethanol. Ethanol, that fuel additive that reduces pollution and helps us wean our dependency on foreign oil and makes farmers rich and politicians look silly when they stump in Iowa. As the U.S. adds more ethanol to its gasoline, the price of corn is surging dramatically, leading to extreme market volatility.

      Wow, so here is the next bubble. Can you say, "buy farmland!"

      Comment


      • #4
        Ethanol Demand Threatens Food Prices

        Ethanol Demand Threatens Food Prices

        http://www.technologyreview.com/Energy/18173/

        Rising corn prices are already affecting everything from the cost of tortillas in Mexico City to the cost of producing eggs in the United States.

        The recent rise in corn prices--almost 70 percent in the past six months--caused by the increased demand for ethanol biofuel has come much sooner than many agriculture economists had expected.

        Comment


        • #5
          Fostering the Tortilla Revolution

          http://www.intellectualconservative....la-revolution/


          Ronald Reagan understood the principle of economic leveraging, and his Strategic Defense Initiative so hamstrung the Soviet government financially that it was eventually toppled. Perhaps George Bush's ethanol initiative can have a kinder, gentler effect on our southern neighbor.
          Wow, you can't make this stuff up! Why can't I be this able to mastermind control of the world? Damn, that's right, I have a conscience...crap.

          Comment


          • #6
            Grain-Derived Ethanol: The Emperor’s New Clothes

            http://i-r-squared.blogspot.com/2006...erors-new.html
            Robert Rapier, I-R Squared
            Energy security. Homegrown fuels. Better markets for our farmers. And by gosh, it’s good for the environment. Sounds good, doesn’t it? Where do I sign up?

            However, the truth behind grain-derived ethanol is masked behind half-truths and myths promoted by a very powerful lobby on behalf of agricultural and ethanol interests. This is one of the biggest scams in operation today, enabled by politicians who fear the political power of that powerful lobby. I will dissect some of the claims in this essay, and show why grain-based ethanol is a huge misallocation of resources.

            First, what do I know about ethanol? I grew up on a farm, and my family still farms. I wanted to help farmers and the environment, so I went to a graduate school where I could be a part of a research project that was doing just that. My research group in graduate school was working on the conversion of biomass (aka cellulose) into ethanol. Biomass conversion via microorganisms was the topic of my thesis. After graduation, I worked several years for a chemical company in various roles (R&D, process, production) supporting propanol and butanol production. I currently work for a major oil company, and I try to stay current on developments in the alternative energy fields. In 2005, my company sent me to the state legislature to provide expert testimony regarding a proposed ethanol mandate for my state. My testimony generated a lot of discussion, and I was called back to the stand ten times to answer questions. Despite some very contentious questioning, nobody rebutted the arguments that I made, which is the gist of this essay.
            (23 Mar 2006)

            Comment


            • #7
              Ethanol Drives Up Food Commodity Prices, Datagro Says

              Ethanol Drives Up Food Commodity Prices, Datagro Says

              http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...1dA&refer=news

              By Marianne Stigset

              Nov. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Global ethanol production is driving up prices for food commodities, from feed stocks such as sugar, to meat, said Datagro, Brazil's biggest sugar-industry forecasting firm.

              U.S. production, forecast to increase more than 70 percent by 2012, will use 37 percent of the country's current corn supply to meet output needs, up 15 percent from 2006, Datagro said. Land for soy oilseeds is increasingly being diverted to grow corn, reducing soy supply and driving up animal feed prices, according to the company. In China, competing demand for corn from the food and ethanol industries may lead the country to reduce exports and become a corn importer, Datagro said.

              ``World sugar, meat, corn, soy and wheat are becoming more interdependent with ethanol,'' Plinio Nastari, president of Datagro, said today at an International Sugar Organization seminar in London.

              Demand for biofuels made from plants such as corn, palm oil and sugar is growing amid efforts by nations including the U.S. to reduce reliance on oil, gas and coal. Some governments are also trying to limit carbon emissions and assist farming.

              In the U.S., ethanol production is forecast to increase to 34 billion liters by 2012, from an estimated 19.7 billion liters in 2006, according to Datagro.

              While the country has sufficient land, it will be limited by water availability, Nastari said, citing the depletion of the Ogallala aquifer, the largest U.S. groundwater reservoir. Still, arable land is being used to grow corn for biofuels.

              `Ethanol Frenzy'

              ``The ethanol frenzy is the main factor behind the recovery in soy and meat prices,'' said Nastari.

              Soybean futures rose 5.25 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $6.7825 in Chicago yesterday. Prices reached $6.8325 on Nov. 8, the highest since August 2005, and have gained 17 percent in the past year.

              Energy prices may increasingly affect the price of sugar, as shown by the increasing correlation between the sweetener and crude oil. Between 2004 and 2006, the correlation between the two rose 85 percent, Nastari said.

              World ethanol production is forecast to total 34.5 million liters in 2006, representing 3 percent of global demand for gasoline, according to Datagro.

              To contact the reporter on this story: Marianne Stigset in London at mstigset@bloomberg.net .

              Comment


              • #8
                U.S. likely to slash tariff on Brazilian ethanol, Jeb Bush says

                http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/...US-Ethanol.php

                SAO PAULO, Brazil: A U.S. tariff on Brazilian ethanol will likely be reduced or eliminated within several years despite stiff opposition from American farmers, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush predicted Monday.

                Bush, the brother of U.S. President George W. Bush, said he believes attitudes among key politicians in the United States will change as America boosts ethanol use and needs more supply from nations like Brazil, the top exporter of the renewable fuel.

                The 54 cents per gallon tariff on Brazilian ethanol — made from sugarcane much more efficiently than ethanol produced from corn in the United States — "doesn't make sense to me," Bush told agribusiness executives in Sao Paulo.

                "Over time, that tariff has to be phased out," said Bush, a co-director of the Interamerican Ethanol Commission lobbying for increased production of the fuel across Latin America.

                Speaking to reporters later, Bush said U.S. demand for ethanol "could easily double in the next five years. That would certainly mean the U.S. would need to import, and Brazil would easily be the leader in U.S. ethanol imports."

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