Martin Armstrong's Economic Pi Cycle

[Sapiens]

http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour..._armstron.html

Armstrong identified January 1st, 2005 as the last important turn date - the date which marked the high for the NASDAQ for the year. The next turn date won't come until 2/27/07. Whether or not that means the market will remain weak until then is unclear, but it certainly wouldn't come a surprise. One important thing to remember in looking at all cycles is that the specific date is more important than whether the system identifies it as a high or a low cycle. The same is true for Martin Armstrong's cycle work. Until we come closer to the next cycle point, it won't be clear whether it will represent a top or a bottom in the markets and economy.

http://www.safehaven.com/showarticle.cfm?id=248

http://wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/wheeler/?p=9

Is Martin Armstrong onto something?

[jk]

Re: Martin Armstrong's Economic Pi Cycle

i read all armstrong's articles when he first posted them at the pei ["princeton economic something-or-other"] website, before he was arrested. i remember when he first revealed that his cycles were based on pi - i was blown away. i am skeptical of numerology like that, but 2007.15 = the 55th day of 2007. oops. the original article does say 2007.15 = feb 27, 2007. but .15 * 365 = 54.75. and the 55th day of the year is .... feb 24.

original article available at:
http://web.archive.org/web/200302230...i/buscycle.htm

[Sapiens]

Re: Martin Armstrong's Economic Pi Cycle

original article available at:
http://web.archive.org/web/200302230...i/buscycle.htm

Thanks JK, I will read up on it.

-Sapiens

[bart]

Re: Martin Armstrong's Economic Pi Cycle

i read all armstrong's articles when he first posted them at the pei ["princeton economic something-or-other"] website, before he was arrested. i remember when he first revealed that his cycles were based on pi - i was blown away. i am skeptical of numerology like that, but 2007.15 = the 55th day of 2007. oops. the original article does say 2007.15 = feb 27, 2007. but .15 * 365 = 54.75. and the 55th day of the year is .... feb 24.

original article available at:
http://web.archive.org/web/200302230...i/buscycle.htm

Indeed jk, and that's how I charted it - the 24th.
The next turn date is March 22, 2008 and the next time the full cycle peaks is Oct 1, 2015.

[jk]

Re: Martin Armstrong's Economic Pi Cycle

Indeed jk, and that's how I charted it - the 24th.
The next turn date is March 22, 2008 and the next time the full cycle peaks is Oct 1, 2015.

if, on the other hand, someone writing sept 1999 - the date of the original article - said that a momentous market event/top or bottom would occur on 2/24/07, not quite 8 years in the future, a few days here or there wouldn't seem that big a difference. i think the bigger question is whether there's anything to armstrong's predictions at all. i'm really curious about your take on it, bart. do his past dates correspond to anything of significance? are you convinced the guy was onto something?

[bart]

Re: Martin Armstrong's Economic Pi Cycle

if, on the other hand, someone writing sept 1999 - the date of the original article - said that a momentous market event/top or bottom would occur on 2/24/07, not quite 8 years in the future, a few days here or there wouldn't seem that big a difference. i think the bigger question is whether there's anything to armstrong's predictions at all. i'm really curious about your take on it, bart. do his past dates correspond to anything of significance? are you convinced the guy was onto something?

I suspect we disagree, but yes I do think Armstrong was onto something. There are plenty of very key dates where the cycle turning points very highly correlate with major events, and they're detailed in his various articles.

His chart has been on my forecast page since day one, and here's what it says:

Before you blow this off as just another cycle graph from some analysis cycle nerd, please do look at the relative accuracy. The cycle called a global top in early January 2005, the US stock market bottom in late 2002, the Dow Jones and S&P 500 peak in 2000, the low in gold in mid 1999, the Russia/Brazil/LTCM crises in mid 1998, the Asian crisis bottom in 1997, a very good buy point in US stocks in early 1994 as the hottest part of the move started, and the global peak in late 1989 when Japan and various other financial items peaked. Credit belongs with Armstrong. Maybe its too simple... but it works for us to help put things into a broad perspective. Do also note that we're not trying to say that different markets hit peaks and valleys at the same time, just that the cycle helps identify probable major turning points in one or more markets.

I do and did use it too, to the result that I was not only out of all but my core stock position but also was short much of yesterday.