Ghost of Joseph Schumpeter and the second end of the Monthly Payment Consumer - Eric Janszen

[snakela]

Re: Ghost of Joseph Schumpeter and the second end of the Monthly Payment Consumer - Eric Janszen

read the whole atrticle?

Yup. The way I comprehend this - there's nothing that states consumer debt and the FIRE economy won't just pick back up after short speedbump. It says the FED hasn't learned its lessons and every MSM news article such as the newsweek one is begging us Americans to go into more debt "for the greater good". If keeping the FIRE economy alive wasn't the goal, would interest rates be so low?

[Slimprofits]

Re: Ghost of Joseph Schumpeter and the second end of the Monthly Payment Consumer - Eric Janszen

Snakela, I don't think anyone is arguing that the goal so far hasn't been to keep FIRE alive. What EJ has mapped out and what others are seeing on the ground is a retrenchment.

Not only are people being layed off, have lost 50% of their investments, some are underwater in the mortgages, etc. etc, but also many people that aren't in trouble yet have seen their credit lines and Helocs shrink as a result of other customers defaulting. (edit: read this) Extend all of that to businesses and factor in losing many customers since October.

The Great American Consumer is dead.

[metalman]

Re: Ghost of Joseph Schumpeter and the second end of the Monthly Payment Consumer - Eric Janszen

Yup. The way I comprehend this - there's nothing that states consumer debt and the FIRE economy won't just pick back up after short speedbump. It says the FED hasn't learned its lessons and every MSM news article such as the newsweek one is begging us Americans to go into more debt "for the greater good". If keeping the FIRE economy alive wasn't the goal, would interest rates be so low?

no, it says pce and household debt have not declined... ever... since 1930.

they pulled it out ever other time. not this time.

read the article that covers the flow of funds... the magic is gone. fire went out in 2008.

where will the money come from to restart it? sales of securitized debt? nope. sales agency and treasury bonds to foreign investors? nope. no fresh flow of $$$ from sales of debt, no fire. kaput. done. over.

[cjppjc]

Re: Ghost of Joseph Schumpeter and the second end of the Monthly Payment Consumer - Eric Janszen

The article does seem to long for a new bubble. No where in the MSM can you find an article telling people to bite the bullet. The debt must go down. Instead calls to the consumer to spend. Nowhere in the MSM is the idea of a fake prosperity. That asset deflation is not the result of asset inflation.

[FRED]

Re: Ghost of Joseph Schumpeter and the second end of the Monthly Payment Consumer - Eric Janszen

The article does seem to long for a new bubble. No where in the MSM can you find an article telling people to bite the bullet. The debt must go down. Instead calls to the consumer to spend. Nowhere in the MSM is the idea of a fake prosperity. That asset deflation is not the result of asset inflation.

We like BusinessWeek and they like us.

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But there is a divergence here. Maybe we need an iTulip interview of BusinessWeek?

[cjppjc]

Re: Ghost of Joseph Schumpeter and the second end of the Monthly Payment Consumer - Eric Janszen

We like BusinessWeek and they like us.

Money Matters Finance Best of 2006 Yahoo! Finance Google Finance Prosper MSN Money Investopedia Motley Fool iTulip

But there is a divergence here. Maybe we need an iTulip interview of BusinessWeek?

Yes. But I could imagine in preparing for that interview the questions would have to be benign enough so the answers don't lead to your fingrs around their neck.