Who stole my cheesy economy? - Eric Janszen

[metalman]

Re: Who stole my cheesy economy? - Eric Janszen

War won't happen during this administration. I think the more likely scenario is Obama carries the turd bag on the depression, gets voted out by your standard FIRE backers of a populist Republican who promises the usual blood, guts and tax cuts. HOORAAY!!

yep. as ej's said, obama is hoover. next comes the populist head banger.

[ASH]

Re: Who stole my cheesy economy? - Eric Janszen

another "cold" war, along with some small proxy wars, might do. i've said for some time that china will have to start banging the drum when its slowing economy combines with its huge surplus of young males to reach the boiling point. a big "defense" build-up in the u.s. would certainly ensue. i just need to think a bit more about how this plays in europe, especially vis a vis russia and its role in european energy supply. suggestions, anyone?

I don't think a "cold" war would work. In a cold war, you build weapons but tend not to use them in developed countries. If the idea is that a war will sop up oversupply of capacity by using some of it to destroy the rest, then it amounts to Keynesian "digging holes and filling them in" writ large -- and even theoretically, that can only work if you actually dig the holes (or blast them). Otherwise, you just run huge budget deficits, go further into debt, and the money spent on the military goes no further than any other government "stimulus" spending or jobs program for the young and unemployed. You gots to blow shit up.

[metalman]

Re: Who stole my cheesy economy? - Eric Janszen

We are in a couple of wars right now. Building a robot and drone army for use in Afghanistan and Pakistan are obvious courses. Expect to hear something like "building a 21st century defense."

Wait this is the plot of "Star Wars episode 2."

jk posted this to a separate thread...

Russia Is Planning a ‘Large-Scale Rearming’

By CLIFFORD J. LEVY
Published: March 17, 2009

MOSCOW — President Dmitri A. Medvedev said on Tuesday that Russia would begin a “large-scale rearming” in 2011 in response to what he described as threats to the country’s security.

In a speech before generals in Moscow, Mr. Medvedev cited encroachment by NATO as a primary reason for bolstering the armed and nuclear forces.

Mr. Medvedev did not offer specifics on how much the budget would grow for the military, whose capabilities deteriorated significantly after the fall of Soviet Union.

Russia has increased military spending sharply in recent years, but with the financial crisis and the drop in the price of oil, the country’s finances are under pressure, suggesting that it would be hard to lift these expenditures further.

Even so, Mr. Medvedev’s timing was notable. He is expected to hold his first meeting with President Obama in early April in London on the sidelines of the summit of the Group of 20 industrialized and developing countries.

In recent weeks, he has said he is looking forward to the meeting, and both he and Russia’s paramount leader, Prime Minister Vladimir V. Putin, have been expressing some optimism about improving relations with the United States under the new administration.

Mr. Medvedev’s comments on Tuesday, though, indicated that Kremlin did not want the United States and its NATO allies to presume that Russia was coming to the table from a position of weakness.

“An analysis of the military-political situation in the world shows that there are a range of regions where there remain serious potential for conflicts,” Mr. Medvedev said. “Threats remain that can bring about local crises and international terrorism. NATO is not halting its efforts to widen its military infrastructure near the borders of our country. All of this demands a quality modernization of our armed forces.”

Mr. Medvedev emphasized that Russia would not be deterred in this plan by the financial crisis....

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/18/wo...dvedev.html?hp

[Serge_Tomiko]

Re: Who stole my cheesy economy? - Eric Janszen

I think the war talk is a bit in left field.
This is not the 1930's. I think nut cases like Hitler, Mussolini, Stalin, and a whacked out Japanese imperialist culture had a lot more to do with WWII than any economic reasons.

There are many ways to characterize the leadership of Japan and Germany, but the fact remains two resource poor countries with insufficient food production capacity and small populations were able to fight three powers - the British Empire, the United States, and the Soviet Union - that controlled almost the entire world for six years and almost won. Especially in regards to Great Britain, it is nuts that an Empire of such power collapsed after their "victory".

I believe your characterization of many of these leaders as "nut cases" is inaccurate, and calling Japan imperialist in the context of British world domination is rather absurd. It's almost as absurd as American propaganda films that characterized the Japanese as creatures akin to monkeys or worse.

The London and New York powers were not very keen on any challenge to their grip on international finance, even from countries like Germany and Japan that had to play the international trade game simply to buy food for their people. Economics was the ONLY reason for World War II.

The finer details are irrelevant - desperate times result in desperate actions. Nuclear weapons obviously make conquest like the days of old impossible. My only point is that 1) we should expect the unexpected and 2) now is not the time to follow jingoistic propaganda and demean our adversaries - the leaders of almost all nations are in fact quite sane and intelligent. Respect them.

Personally, I think Obama will invade Mexico. "Peacekeeping" is the only thing the American people expect these days. The free flow of information makes true jingoism impossible. Further, bringing order to Mexico will require a very large army - a perfect solution to the coming unemployment problem.

[ASH]

Re: Who stole my cheesy economy? - Eric Janszen

War won't happen during this administration. I think the more likely scenario is Obama carries the turd bag on the depression, gets voted out by your standard FIRE backers of a populist Republican who promises the usual blood, guts and tax cuts. HOORAAY!!

War is already going on during this administration. New small wars may happen under this administration, or the next, but a major war can't happen anytime soon because the US is the only country with any significant expeditionary capability. Only a major war would take care of the over-capacity problem.

[ASH]

Re: Who stole my cheesy economy? - Eric Janszen

Thank you for bringing this to light. I have been pondering this since the Marx discussions and still don't have an answer I like. Nukes make this difficult. What is the answer? Bird flu or its ilk? Proxy wars everywhere? Not good.

As I suggested to jk below, I don't think proxy wars can help with over-capacity. For that matter -- a proxy war with whom?

[rjwjr]

Re: Who stole my cheesy economy? - Eric Janszen

We didn't get into WWII to kick start the US economy, we went in kicking and screaming, and only once attacked. As the father of a 20 year old son, I can only hope that our current political leadership doesn't see war a tool to start the economy. Growing a domestic economy should not be a priority greater than the innocent lives of US and foreign children. And I'm no tree-hugger, peace monger. I believe in peace thru strength, believe that the US MUST maintain weapons superiority, and feel that our response to unprovoked attacks on Americans or American soil should be met with swift and severe retaliation. I simply do not believe that a few more dollars in our pocket is worth pre-emptive, false-emptive, or media-emptive aggression.

And, putting aside American ego for a minute, are we attacking in an effort to export our terrific political system and economic prowess to these backward, wayward foreigners? I am steadfastly pro-American, but we need to fix our own problems before we go force-exporting them.

we have all the natural resources and brain power we need, we don't need to go stealing anything. Let's look inside our Country and ourselves, and let's find some smart people to fix these problems properly.

[goadam1]

Re: Who stole my cheesy economy? - Eric Janszen

yep. as ej's said, obama is hoover. next comes the populist head banger.

It becomes clearer every day.

[serge_oc]

Re: Who stole my cheesy economy? - Eric Janszen

A few thoughts:

1. Here is a war that fits the bill: Iran. Did anyone mention that one? Also, why is it assumed that wars have to be started by the US? Someone else can lit the match, make it bright enough so there is no choice but to join and make it brighter.

2. What happened to a massive inflation world-wide? For example, devaluating every major currency to 1/3 of previous value? Everyone else will follow suite, just look at the Swiss. Central bankers can be notoriously unified if it means something good for them. Especially if governments become similarly unified to reward them (given that such devaluation would hurt bankers initially). Self-preservation is a powerful motivator.

3. Just like financial derivatives, nuclear war never happened before. Everyone here assumes that in case of nuclear engagement action will be massive and reaction will be equally massive. If you think outside the box (so far out of the box you can't even see the box), doing tit-for-tat, smashing city-for-city is not so outrageous. US may massively respond to effectively powerless countries such as Iraq or Serbia, but may not to actions of Russia, China, Israel or India (be it friend or foe).

It's hard to think about some of these things when it's a nice day outside, birds chirping and old ladies walking their puffy dogs.

Hopefully option number 2 comes to bear, and everything else is mushroom-induced blabbering.


A bit of more of those mushrooms: given that defense spending is on the rise in Russia and China, wouldn't it be in the interest of US to start the war (or destabilizing proxy wars) sooner, rather than later?

US is the biggest debtor, and will have to (one way or the other) pilfer other countries. Isn't it better to do so while they still aren't armed to the teeth?

[metalman]

Re: Who stole my cheesy economy? - Eric Janszen

We didn't get into WWII to kick start the US economy, we went in kicking and screaming, and only once attacked. As the father of a 20 year old son, I can only hope that our current political leadership doesn't see war a tool to start the economy. Growing a domestic economy should not be a priority greater than the innocent lives of US and foreign children. And I'm no tree-hugger, peace monger. I believe in peace thru strength, believe that the US MUST maintain weapons superiority, and feel that our response to unprovoked attacks on Americans or American soil should be met with swift and severe retaliation. I simply do not believe that a few more dollars in our pocket is worth pre-emptive, fasle-emptive, or media-emptive aggression.

And, putting aside American ego for a minute, are we attacking in an effort to export our terrific political system and economic prowess to these backward, wayward foreigners? I am steadfastly pro-American, but we need to fix our own problems before we go force-exporting them.

we have all the natural resources and brain power we need, we don't need to go stealing anything. Let's look inside our Country and ourselves, and let's find some smart people to fix these problems properly.

bravo! well said. we have our answers right here in the usa, with the will and good leaders we'll do just fine.

[goadam1]

Re: Who stole my cheesy economy? - Eric Janszen

War is already going on during this administration. New small wars may happen under this administration, or the next, but a major war can't happen anytime soon because the US is the only country with any significant expeditionary capability. Only a major war would take care of the over-capacity problem.

I bet you could put gm and others to work building a whole bunch of robots. I'm not kidding.

Oh wait, this is the plot of "Terminator."

[goadam1]

Re: Who stole my cheesy economy? - Eric Janszen

bravo! well said. we have our answers right here in the usa, with the will and good leaders we'll do just fine.

We did it before and we'll do it again!

http://www.last.fm/music/Robert+Merr...an+Do+It+Again

[jk]

Re: Who stole my cheesy economy? - Eric Janszen

I don't think a "cold" war would work. In a cold war, you build weapons but tend not to use them in developed countries. If the idea is that a war will sop up oversupply of capacity by using some of it to destroy the rest, then it amounts to Keynesian "digging holes and filling them in" writ large -- and even theoretically, that can only work if you actually dig the holes (or blast them). Otherwise, you just run huge budget deficits, go further into debt, and the money spent on the military goes no further than any other government "stimulus" spending or jobs program for the young and unemployed. You gots to blow shit up.

i disagree re the efficacy of a "cold" war. you needn't blow up capacity, instead you use it to make weapons. just producing them is as wasteful as blowing them up. steel goes into tanks and ships instead of cars and washing machines. chips go into weapon systems instead of dvd players. big lcd's go into war rooms and little ones into war-fighting vehicles. this produces lots of defense employment, and it can't be offshored. no worry about finding consumers to take on debt for the purchase; that's the role of uncle sam.

[Jay]

Re: Who stole my cheesy economy? - Eric Janszen

As I suggested to jk below, I don't think proxy wars can help with over-capacity. For that matter -- a proxy war with whom?

I agree, plus most of the overcapacity is in China. That is where the capacity reduction needs to be. Maybe massive civil unrest there would do it. Not a happy thought mind you.

[goadam1]

Re: Who stole my cheesy economy? - Eric Janszen

Okay, what if the war is over and no one fired a shot? Devil's advocate here. Retail sales have bottom, the drop in capacity utilization has slowed, the drop in retail sales have slowed...

Now kick my ass.