Real DOW Update: Still looking for a bottom? Eric Janszen

[WDCRob]

Re: Real DOW Update: Still looking for a bottom?

Some pretty compelling technical analysis over at Calculated Risk tonight.

[metalman]

Re: Real DOW Update: Still looking for a bottom?

Some pretty compelling technical analysis over at Calculated Risk tonight.

sorry... what's compelling about it? all it shows is where we are. where's the calc risk chart from mid 2006 to compare it against? where is it going?

[EasternBelle]

Re: Real DOW Update: Still looking for a bottom?

Bart,

thanks for the charts on the shadow stat's corrections. It's interesting to see that although we are well below trendline there, the overshoots could still be quite substantial.

EasternBelle

[Rajiv]

Re: Real DOW Update: Still looking for a bottom?

Metalman, it appears to be a "Calculated Risk" joke -- search for "Mortgage Pig" in google.

[WDCRob]

Re: Real DOW Update: Still looking for a bottom?

Yes... probably wasn't safe to assume others were familiar with CR already.

[LargoWinch]

Re: Real DOW Update: Still looking for a bottom?

sorry... what's compelling about it? all it shows is where we are. where's the calc risk chart from mid 2006 to compare it against? where is it going?

The pig says it is going to 0!

Thats is good enough for me and probably true in real terms...

[LargoWinch]

Re: Real DOW Update: Still looking for a bottom?

You're most welcome.

Too bad you're not female, single, gorgeous & rich... ;)

If that was the case, I would marry myself! :p

[orion]

Re: Real DOW Update: Still looking for a bottom?

Bart,

Thanks for the very nice graphs. Could you do one more with the various Dow's vs GDP or GNP? Do you have any thoughts on a correlation between GNP and Dow? Thanks again.

[bart]

Re: Real DOW Update: Still looking for a bottom?

Bart,

thanks for the charts on the shadow stat's corrections. It's interesting to see that although we are well below trendline there, the overshoots could still be quite substantial.

EasternBelle

You're welcome, and very much so on overshoots. Its just another view on the basic truth that EJ shows in the iTulip chart too.

[bart]

Re: Real DOW Update: Still looking for a bottom?

If that was the case, I would marry myself! :p

It seems like this might apply to both of us then:

http://www.nowandfutures.com/grins/kinky.wav ;)

[bart]

Re: Real DOW Update: Still looking for a bottom?

Bart,

Thanks for the very nice graphs. Could you do one more with the various Dow's vs GDP or GNP? Do you have any thoughts on a correlation between GNP and Dow? Thanks again.

I've never done much with GDP or GNP or GDI analysis and the Dow, mostly because my focus and time is spent on inflation, the hard vs. paper asset cycle, and money creation factors. I'm sure there's some correlation though.

All I have on GDP, etc. are charts like these.

[Rajiv]

Re: Real DOW Update: Still looking for a bottom?

Bart,

Actually these are quite interesting -- also keep in mind the points that I raised earlier about the shift over the last thirty years from single income families to double income families, and of course how the income/wealth is distributed across the population, and you may come to some very interesting conclusions.

[Rajiv]

Re: Real DOW Update: Still looking for a bottom?

Also two links for you
(TABLES AND FIGURES UPDATED TO 2006 in Excel format, July 2008)

and
Summary for the broader public "Striking it Richer: The Evolution of Top Incomes in the United States", updated March 2008

from Emmanuel Saez' site

[orion]

Re: Real DOW Update: Still looking for a bottom?

Thanks Bart. I was hoping you would have more of the time line for this graph to compare with DOW;



I have found a graph at (http://soffistique.livejournal.com/320943.html);



Unfortunately they don't discuss implications of graph. Maybe the relationship is just too general, at least the two normally trend upwards.

What I am looking for here is a comparison of the 1.64% increase for the Real DOW that iTulip uses and the real potential GDP that EJ uses in the Modern Depression thread (http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...0285#post80285). The RP-GDP is such a smooth curve it must be based on some fixed assumption of growth but I can't find it.

[bart]

Re: Real DOW Update: Still looking for a bottom?

Bart,

Actually these are quite interesting -- also keep in mind the points that I raised earlier about the shift over the last thirty years from single income families to double income families, and of course how the income/wealth is distributed across the population, and you may come to some very interesting conclusions.

Very much so, Rajiv, and thanks for those links to the income decile data too. I've added a task on my ever growing list to both study them and incorporate the data into some new charts.

At one time I thought that I had an ok handle on the major factors, but the more I dig in and research the area the more I realize how much I'm missing in order to paint a truly inclusive picture.
I was aware of the strong trend in the last 30+ years to dual income families, and view it as the primary method for most families to help counteract inflation... while not realizing that what they're fighting is inflation itself and not all the other horse puckey that media, Wall St. etc. are pushing.