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Real DOW Update: Still looking for a bottom? Eric Janszen

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  • Re: Real DOW Update: Still looking for a bottom?

    Originally posted by jtabeb View Post
    If you turn that statement around COMPLETELY, then it will be correct.

    As in:

    The problems with society did not come first, it is the problems with an economy that happen before you have societal collapse. Cause and effect.

    As in, people don't act like uneducated baffoons when it only takes one worker making median wages to support a family of four, but when it takes 3.5 workers making median wages to support a family of four your get societal problems.

    Don't try any historical revisionism on this, it's just a bold face lie to claim otherwise.

    (please read ANY study of socio-economics over the past 29 years to get a idea of what I'm talking about)

    Put simply, your premise is ass-backwards.

    Your saying that the bus has no driver. Economy acts as a RESULT of human action, not vice versa. If you explore cause and effect, you find that the reason why a worker needs to work harder to support himself is because his productivity isn't keeping up with his consumption. He wants more than he can produce and if he can't support that desire with current productivity he needs to borrow it. When a society borrows heavily, it leads to a artificial rise in prices which are only made possible by access to easy credit. He borrows for current consumption which means he MUST either produce more in the future or consume less to pay his debts.

    The problem with society which lead up to economic ones are man has infinite desires and limited resources. This is basic human nature, codified by economic principle. Good economics should act as a brake on that base human instinct, but since human activity governs economics and not vice versa economic principles of growth can be circumvented for a while vis a vie credit and monetary debasement.


    Societal virtues of thrift, savings and productivity are what drives a good economy. A good economy can easily be ruined by bad human action, whereas good human action leads to a good economy. Your argument is a determistic one and seems to assume that humans act like laboratory rats influenced by the "animal spirits" of an economy.

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    • Re: Real DOW Update: Still looking for a bottom? Eric Janszen

      Originally posted by Lukester View Post
      All those inclined to smirk at technician's terminology and methods may have to wipe their commiserating smiles away in a hurry in May-June if this unfolds as described. Right?

      I've been suggesting this for six months. I am looking forward to all the sheepish comments if it actually unfolds this spring.
      You'll get your props from me -- don't worry.

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      • Re: Real DOW Update: Still looking for a bottom?

        Originally posted by occdude View Post
        A good economy can easily be ruined by bad human action, whereas good human action leads to a good economy. .

        Yes. (It is the actors in question that you an I seem to disagree on).

        Read about Wiemar inflation, if you don't think people act rationally during irrational times. The will react rationally, given the situation at the time. Hence, good economic policy leads to a well functioning society, not vice versa. Yes cause and effect.

        Show me any social ill that cannot be directly attributed to economic conditions and I'll change my mind. Till then, no.

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        • Re: Real DOW Update: Still looking for a bottom? Eric Janszen

          Originally posted by Lukester View Post
          Oil and Dr. Copper appear to be sending a broad hint that they want to mak a major turn. Stock market boom cannot be far behind them. Actually these two commodities are not just "hinting" that they want to complete a turn and break out, they already **are** breaking out. April-May-June turn is coming up right on schedule it seems.

          All those inclined to smirk at technician's terminology and methods may have to wipe their commiserating smiles away in a hurry in May-June if this unfolds as described. Right? Or will they remember to despite the fact one of these technicians appears to be the earliest to note these budding trend changes below?

          So while iTulip's apprehensive observers abandon all hope and begin to wallow in the most apocalyptic, pessimistically abandoned visions of our near term financial future, this humble "navel gazing" technician is pointing out such musings are already looking distinctly passe'. Will the doomers give him credit in June if or when he proves right? Going on past precedent, most likely not.

          I've been suggesting this for six months. I am looking forward to all the sheepish comments if it actually unfolds this spring.

          Beware short positions going into April.


          I was reading down through this thread and when I came upon this post, I just knew that the High Inquisitor of iTulip, Cardinal Metalman de Torquemada, would soon appear and punish your heresy with his withering sarcasm. Keep it up and you're sure to get the comfy chair!
          Outside of a dog, a book is man's best friend. Inside of a dog, it's too dark to read. -Groucho

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          • Re: Real DOW Update: Still looking for a bottom? Eric Janszen

            Originally posted by Master Shake View Post
            I was reading down through this thread and when I came upon this post, I just knew that the High Inquisitor of iTulip, Cardinal Metalman de Torquemada, would soon appear and punish your heresy with his withering sarcasm. Keep it up and you're sure to get the comfy chair!
            my withering posts? i don't hold a candle to *t*

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            • Re: Real DOW Update: Still looking for a bottom? Eric Janszen

              Originally posted by metalman View Post
              all that's gonna happen to stocks is... sooner or later... they'll stop falling like a bag of turds out a high rise window and finally hit the ground and go.... 'splat!'
              Ah, that gave me a good laugh; just what I needed.

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