What just happened?

[goadam1]

Re: What just happened?

More likely, someone says, "I have some lemonade, I'll sell it to you for $100 a glass." And the guy next to you says, "I'll pay $200." Ka-poom.

[FRED]

Re: What just happened?

From our upcoming iTulip Select forecast of the Modern Depression:

The worst case is an 18% contaction over three years that sets us back to 2000 real GDP, where we were at the peak of the stock market bubble, running a fiscal surplus, housing prices were rising. Even there, are we being too optimistic? Look for our arguments later.

[Quincy K]

Re: What just happened?

Forecasting 20-25 percent U-3 UE by next year and proclaiming things to be just "really, really slow"?

When things get "really, really slow", many people are going to take matters into their own hands as they will have nothing left to lose. Three hots and a cot will actually be welcomed by the unfortunate but probably not accomodated(overcrowding) except for the seriously demented and violent.

It amazes me the naivity of some that believe that they cannot become a victim of a violent crime.

Right up to the point that they lose their watch, wallet and well-being.

20-25 percent U-3 UE is really, really bad. Much so than most here realize.

[cjppjc]

Re: What just happened?

From our upcoming iTulip Select forecast of the Modern Depression:

The worst case is an 18% contaction over three years that sets us back to 2000 real GDP, where we were at the peak of the stock market bubble, running a fiscal surplus, housing prices were rising. Even there, are we being too optimistic? Look for our arguments later.

I like how Fred pops in and out so fast. Anybody ever catch him online?

[goadam1]

Re: What just happened?

i agree. 20% u3 is an event to plan for. Maybe it isn't in a nice Boston suburb but it sure is around my world.

[strittmatter]

Re: What just happened?

Maybe I'm profoundly out of step with modern America, but "doomer" mentality and preparedness isn't some kind of sickness, but a return to normalcy.

As a kid we lived in a regular suburban-style neighborhood, but had a large garden and grew our own veggies that we put up by freezing and canning. We went fishing when the tautog were running and put up plenty of frozen fish. Keeping shotguns in the house and knowing how to use them was commonplace for home defense, and going to shoot trap was fun, along with game dinners. My grandpa gave some krugerrands to my parents for a "backup". Prep for blizzards or power outages or hurricanes was just what you did. Credit cards were for rich people or dire emergencies. Sewing torn clothes or getting shoes fixed was normal. This was the 1970s and early 1980s in New England, not Appalachia in the 1920s.

But somewhere along the way food was something that was served to you in restaurants or came out of a plastic container. Guns, one of our fundamental rights and common cultural artifacts, became scary boogeymen kept by shifty-eyed paranoids and militia members. Cutting up or even paying off credit cards is a sign of extreme distress. Gold? What are you crazy? You FIX things instead of throw them away? What's wrong with you?

Most of the "doomer" prep here is what we used to call "regular life".

Grew up on a farm in north texas. couldn't agree more. would love to expand on this later........

[Fiat Currency]

Re: What just happened?

I like how Fred pops in and out so fast. Anybody ever catch him online?

I snapped a picture of him once ... but it was quite a while ago ... here it is ...

smoking baby.gif

[BadJuju]

Re: What just happened?

I snapped a picture of him once ... but it was quite a while ago ... here it is ...

[ATTACH]1144[/ATTACH]

Hahaha! That's awesome.

[Basil]

Re: What just happened?

Maybe I'm profoundly out of step with modern America, but "doomer" mentality and preparedness isn't some kind of sickness, but a return to normalcy.

As a kid we lived in a regular suburban-style neighborhood, but had a large garden and grew our own veggies that we put up by freezing and canning. We went fishing when the tautog were running and put up plenty of frozen fish. Keeping shotguns in the house and knowing how to use them was commonplace for home defense, and going to shoot trap was fun, along with game dinners. My grandpa gave some krugerrands to my parents for a "backup". Prep for blizzards or power outages or hurricanes was just what you did. Credit cards were for rich people or dire emergencies. Sewing torn clothes or getting shoes fixed was normal. This was the 1970s and early 1980s in New England, not Appalachia in the 1920s.

But somewhere along the way food was something that was served to you in restaurants or came out of a plastic container. Guns, one of our fundamental rights and common cultural artifacts, became scary boogeymen kept by shifty-eyed paranoids and militia members. Cutting up or even paying off credit cards is a sign of extreme distress. Gold? What are you crazy? You FIX things instead of throw them away? What's wrong with you?

Most of the "doomer" prep here is what we used to call "regular life".

Excellent post. I have wanted to write something along these lines this week but been a bit too consumed with the three year pay freeze and talk of benefit cuts at work. At least I knew it was coming. My colleagues have been blind-sided.

Anyways, it seems to me that interpreting talk of stocking food and fuel and having a gun as going 'mad max' or as being a doomer is intellectually dishonest, especially for itulip. It is mocking the argument rather than considering the rationale behind it.

Many of us know people who think that we are crazy for buying gold, taking our money out of equities, and continuing to rent. They sometimes refer to us as irrational doomers. Often they grossly distort the rationale many here follow for holding PMs and cash and set up straw men so that they do not need to take our arguments seriously. This is what some members of itulip are doing in ridiculing the instinct to invest in food and fuel and develop more elaborate contingency plans.

As some here have observed, U3 around 20% is not going to look pretty and will take a toll on the very weak social fabric of the US. In some places it will tear that fabric to shreds. If you live near one of those places, it would be wise to prepared.

What will a sudden stop look like in practical terms? It will not be pretty, and it is worth being prepared for it. In "Road to Ruin" EJ writes of GDP at -4% for 2009 and 2010. What about negative 6.2% as was announced today for Q4, 08? Were that to accelerate, things could get quite ugly before they get uglier.

For some, buying PMs and having cash on hand is what gives them greater peace of mind. For others, greater diversification into more tangible assets gives them peace of mind. Others feel the need to be able to defend themselves and their families against the increased crime rate that poverty brings, along with the inmates being released from prisons for budget relief. All of these are prudent measures based upon the same underlying analysis. We would all do well to recognize this before mocking the measures some are taking to prepare themselves.

No one here is talking about strapping gas cans on top of cars, selling everything and living like hooligans, nor of preparing for the end of time.

[Southernguy]

Re: What just happened?

For what it's worth, what I got out of this cryptic, short article was that I need to add a portable GPS to my list of supplies. May be the only way to find my way home. Thanks.

Shall geopositioning satelites be working?;)

[markoboston]

Re: What just happened?

Actually, I am considering a move right now from my rented Boston apartment to a mortgaged house in a somewhat nice Boston suburb. (It's not an upscale suburb, but it currently has a low crime rate. My partner's brother is a cop there.)

Does it sound crazy to be buying a house with a mortgage right now? I can't afford to buy outright and want to save cash for food storage and buying some practical stuff like a wood stove. I will be putting 20% down to get the mortgage. Prices have come down, but most "experts" say they are going down further. On the other hand, I am somewhat betting that inflation or hyperinflation will make the mortgage affordable even if my partner and I are underemployed. (We are buying cheap enough that either of us could cover the mortgage if the other lost his job.) In a deflationary scenario, my savings alone would keep us going for at least a year without income. Most of all, I want a house with a big yard and basement to grow and store food. I can't do that in an urban apartment.

Does this make sense?

[cjppjc]

Re: What just happened?

Actually, I am considering a move right now from my rented Boston apartment to a mortgaged house in a somewhat nice Boston suburb. (It's not an upscale suburb, but it currently has a low crime rate. My partner's brother is a cop there.)

Does it sound crazy to be buying a house with a mortgage right now? I can't afford to buy outright and want to save cash for food storage and buying some practical stuff like a wood stove. I will be putting 20% down to get the mortgage. Prices have come down, but most "experts" say they are going down further. On the other hand, I am somewhat betting that inflation or hyperinflation will make the mortgage affordable even if my partner and I are underemployed. (We are buying cheap enough that either of us could cover the mortgage if the other lost his job.) In a deflationary scenario, my savings alone would keep us going for at least a year without income. Most of all, I want a house with a big yard and basement to grow and store food. I can't do that in an urban apartment.

Does this make sense?

Sounds like you want to buy a home. If you've wanted to for a long time go ahead. If you've just come to the idea, wait a little while longer.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: What just happened?

Sounds like you want to buy a home. If you've wanted to for a long time go ahead. If you've just come to the idea, wait a little while longer.

The length of time one has been considering something doesn't especially determine how good a decision it is.

For that matter, the comments of others on forums such as this are not especially determinative either ;).

However the act of posing the question to others can be a useful way to help arrive at better decision. By "better" I don't mean what one would choose if one had a perfect crystal ball; that's not possible. I mean a decision that better fits the various aspects and circumstances of ones present life.

[cjppjc]

Re: What just happened?

The length of time one has been considering something doesn't especially determine how good a decision it is.

.

Listen Cow.

No seriously, to a large extent the amount of time spent considering the purchase of a home will determine if the person will proceed with the transaction.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: What just happened?

Listen Cow.

No seriously, to a large extent the amount of time spent considering the purchase of a home will determine if the person will proceed with the transaction.

How do you come to know this?

My reply was based on my personal experience with my own decisions, which more likely stick if they feel right and make sense to the all the ways I have of being aware of or analyzing my world. Major decisions leading to dramatic changes of direction that surprise even me, and which might guide my life for decades, can be made in the space of a day or so, if things line up right. Obviously, I cannot claim that my way of doing such things is the common or wisest course for others, so my extrapolation to the question at hand might be dubious.

So I ask how you have learned of this correlation you describe -- that the extent of time considering the purchase correlates with the probability of completing the transaction? And, for that matter, what the original poster seemed to be seeking was not an estimate of the probability of his completing the transaction, but rather insights into whether this would seem like a good economic, financial or other decision, from other people on this forum.