What just happened?

[goadam1]

Re: What just happened?

there is a big difference in preparing for a stock market crash, a 50% drop in revenue, inflation and 12% unemployment or 20% unemployment and 40% inflation. I live in New York City and I think 20% unemployment and hyperinflation might not look like mad max but it will be pretty scary. So yeah, I go from concerned business owner and investor to thinking about home security, how safe the streets will be and what my exit plan should be.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: What just happened?

... selling all your belongings, leaving your city job, and starting a beet farm in some dusty corner of Idaho ...

Security, like real estate and politics, is local. The person in a long stable small mid-western town will have quite different security risks than a person in New Orleans or Detroit.

Things will change, and they will change differently for each of us depending on our neighborhood, as well as on our individual abilities and vulnerabilities.

The collapse of some of the world wide FIRE economy will accentuate local and regional differences. We routinely see this in natural disasters, where the reaction of the populace and the variety of risks subsequently imposed on them diverges greatly by neighborhood and town. Contrast the reactions of some Mississippi towns with that of the lower elevation portions of New Orleans to Katrina.

That's why I moved from Silicon Valley to North Texas. The economic model of Silicon Valley that had enriched me for the last 30 years no longer felt as safe to me as that of areas such as North Texas.

Depending on where you live, the answer might be get the heck out, even if you have to do so at considerable cost. That doesn't necessarily mean raising beets in Idaho; there are a million ways to get out of the big city.

[metalman]

Re: What just happened?

Fred - I've now got this comment archived. I think it may come back to haunt you in 12-18 months. There is a stock market explosion - or moonshot, however we want to call it - up ahead not too far away, which iTulip will then have to re-incorporate into their thesis, and that may be a bit awkward given the unequivocal prognosis below to the contrary. USD set to bust out on the upside soon now is my view and can rise into the mid-90's this time. Stock market after the completion of this meltdown can be like dry tinder doused in gasoline (when torched, it goes up, a lot).

so ridiculous. no one is doubting there is gonna be some kind of big rally, but no one can say when.... certainly not you. you've been calling for one for months. itulip ain't about speculating on unpredictable things. wrong site, luke.

[tombat1913]

Re: What just happened?

Perhaps there are better places for doomer-gloomer types to congregate than a site given over to macro-financial commentary. But when you stumble across a group of intelligent people and many of them happen to share your views and are planning accordingly it's natural to want to compare notes.

If you live in one of the cities that have been struck by one of the awful terrorist attacks, or that are on the well-known target list of nihilistic jihadis, you may possess a certain additional existential dread. It's highly unlikely that any of the thousands or so people who are determined to do wholesale violence to this place will actually succeed. Because the counter-terrorism authorities are so very competent. Right? In the meantime, isn't it prudent to plan an emergency exit, in case of one of those nightmare scenarios ever comes to pass -- especially if you are a parent with responsibility over young lives?

Now throw in thoughts of Peak Oil. I'm no geologist or oil man, but there are lots of persuasive well-researched cases out there laying out a pretty troubling scenario fifteen years out or so. Even the IEA tip-toed in that direction a couple months ago. Maybe after the glaciers melt away we'll find vast new stores of oil in Greenland. Maybe Obama's great leap forward in green industry will find new ways to light up the grid. Maybe not.

If preparing for these scenarios, even if they are not likely, makes me foolish, so be it. Just don't come asking for food if TSHTF.

In light of prior disagreements I just want to take this opportunity to say that this is something we can absolutely agree upon, all of it. Cheers

[simitpatel]

Re: What just happened?

Certainly, but what do people actually do under these conditions? Do they run into their homes and hide with their Glocks and shotguns? Do they form neighborhood groups for security? Do they help each other out and pool resources such as food? Isn't this worthy of discussion? Why always right to guns and food storage?

when i jumped on the rational doomer bandwagon in 2005, my first approach was to try to make this a discussion topic. i'd present the evidence from multiple angles. i'd talk to anyone who could listen. i became, and still am, politically informed and active.

guess what i found out? no one cares. they don't want to hear it. just check many of the responses in this thread, perhaps even EJ's original post, which curiously followed a coherent thesis for how hyperinflation could play out.

IMO, finding like-minded people in your community is the best bet, assuming it can be done. if it cannot be done, then yes, guns, food, water, and metals. bonus points if you can get off the grid.

as others have noted, i dont recommend building your whole life around doom. i am a big fan of being prepared and taking insurance measures. if you earn a reasonable living and are prudent with expenses, guns and a little bit of food can bring peace of mind at very little cost. how is this different than health insurance? given the nature of insurance companies, medical institutions, and big pharma, i'd argue it's a wiser bet.

the truth is that most people dont like to think about it, even though it doesnt cost much financially, because taking such actions implies unpleasantness about how things could turn out.

[zoog]

Re: What just happened?

Wait, one day you are saying maybe we should buy booze to barter with and the next you are calling us doomers.

He never says booze for barter. Where does he say booze for barter?

My understanding is: EJ or John Williams can mention in passing that something like booze for barter is a hypothetical, but that does not mean everyone has to immediately incorporate it as an absolutely assured outcome. Such assumptions feed on themselves and within a couple of days there are so many antecedent posts mentioning it that it becomes percieved as the "likeliest outcome".

Classic example of this phenomenon which seems to happen around here sometimes. Increasingly so as time goes on, I might add.

In Hyperinflation case revisited - Part One: On the road to hyperinflation. Will we complete the trip? EJ notes:

...Lately [John] Williams is pressing his followers to double down on gold and stock up on Whiskey for barter, while Sinclair proclaims “this is it” as in “the big one” that the doomers have warned about for decades....

Nowhere in the article is EJ himself saying "you will need whiskey to barter with because the dollar will have collapsed". He merely relates the kinds of statements that John Williams and Jim Sinclair have been making lately.

When in doubt, I always go back and read EJ's essays again. I often find it helpful to re-read them for better understanding anyway.

[ASH]

Re: What just happened?

Nowhere in the article is EJ himself saying "you will need whiskey to barter with because the dollar will have collapsed". He merely relates the kinds of statements that John Williams and Jim Sinclair have been making lately.

When in doubt, I always go back and read EJ's essays again. I often find it helpful to re-read them for better understanding anyway.

Well, he does say:

During the Russian hyperinflation in the early 1990s vodka was the primary item of barter, so his suggestion is not off-the-wall if in fact a US inflation developed to hyperinflation levels.

as well as...

Maybe we simply lack imagination, but we have had a hard time accepting the above dire scenario for the US. If it happens we're all going to need more than a few bottles of whiskey to get through it. It means the end of the US as we know it, both the society and the nation's international standing.

and

As we noted back in 2001, the US is certainly on the road to hyperinflation. Inflation is the policy, the answer to every ill. But the road from inflation to hyperinflation is long, and there are ways to get off.

That sounds to me like an endorsement of alcohol as a potential trade good and an invitation to consider "the end of [US society] as we know it" in the event of an honest-to-God hyperinflation. Then there's the statement that we have been on the road to hyperinflation since at least 2001, in EJ's estimation, although such an outcome is not assured. So no, EJ did not tell anyone to go out and buy alcohol as a trade good, or that society will collapse -- he just said that possibly there could be hyperinflation, in which case US society as we know it will come to an end, and alcohol will be of use as a trade good. What, exactly, is your beef with the folks who read this and shat themselves? An asteroid might hit the earth, but EJ doesn't spend his time cataloging all the possible bad things which might happen. That's why his readership sits up and takes notice when he does raise an ugly scenario, even if it's not the most likely outcome. We figure he raised the issue because the danger is realistic enough to bother talking about.

Finally, there's this from the Road to Ruin thread:

Our primary concern at this stage is no longer our readers' portfolios but their ability to weather a US dollar crisis if one erupts. In response, we are increasing our gold allocation to 30% and moving all Treasury holdings to the very shortest maturities, to three month Treasury bills, until we see indications that conditions are stabilizing. We encourage you to engage with the community to actively discuss strategies that are appropriate for you.

This is an invitation to discuss measures to weather a US dollar crisis, with respect to things other than our portfolios. Well, if we're not talking about our portfolios, then I guess we're talking about something else. I presume the intended topic was not what will be fashionable to wear in the event of a dollar crisis. The non-financial aspects of preparedness, perhaps?

My point is that although EJ clearly doesn't want iTulip to degenerate into a doomer survivalist website, it is silly to pretend that those writing posts about physical preparedness and personal security misread what he wrote, or that they are flying off on a crazy tangent to the topics he raised. That may not have been what EJ intended -- perhaps there was a problem with the choice of words -- but in this case it's not a simple problem with English reading comprehension on the part of the audience.

[bpr]

Re: What just happened?

Silly me... I stocked up on whisky with no intention of bartering (unless I run out).

[Guest]

Re: What just happened?

Well those LEAP 2020 "global systemic crisis" guys are cranking up the dire tone here. I have not got time to translate this but will do so over the weekend if someone else doesn't first. They are calling for total armageddon. Civil war in a half dozen countries, including and most of all in the USA. We have two hundred million firearms in this country and the most combustible societal disorder according to them.

Geopolitical global dislocation, civil wars, regime changes. These guys are seriously insisting that this is their forecast. Whew!

They say "if you live in one of the primary affected zones, your best option is just to leave". :eek: :rolleyes: The immediate physical danger will be marginal in Europe, but according to them will be a "bonfire" in the US. Thanks a lot guys. We think highly of you also.

They say their synthesis and conclusions are formed by melding the opinions of "many dozens of professionals, politicians, people in the know", etc. Well in fairness, actually a good piece of their forecasting has already worked out, so it might be concluded that their forecasts have not been all that exxaggerated in the past two years.

They go on to opine: Doit-on en conclure que la crise mondiale peut se transformer en guerre mondiale ? "Les pronostics de LEAP sont extrêmes, mais la violence sociale pointe", admet Laurence Boone, économiste chez Barclays. Saying in effect: "Are we to conclude that this global crisis will transform into a world war?" And replying to this comment they quote Laurence Boone, economist with Barclays who observed: "The prognostications of LEAP2020 are extreme, but the potential for violent social reaction is pointing that way".

Evidently any comments EJ has made in this direction appear exceedingly cautious and conservative in comparison with this stuff. Maybe iTulip have it in mind to send the LEAP2020 people to the "Are You A Doomer" correctional facility for a little reeducation? I must confess LEAP2020 are climbing somewhat out on a limb with these prognostications. Anyway, it seems like a perfect bookend to add to this thread.

All the happy news and forecasting is compliments of "LEAP2020" folks. We doubtless all wish to send them a big "thank you".

Après la crise financière, la guerre civile ? Préparez-vous à "quitter votre région"...

LE MONDE | 26.02.09 | 13h44 • Mis à jour le 26.02.09 | 21h12

La crise économique et financière va-t-elle dégénérer en violentes explosions sociales ? En Europe, aux Etats-Unis ou au Japon, la guerre civile est-elle pour demain ? C'est le pronostic quelque peu affolant que dressent les experts du LEAP/Europe 2020, un groupe de réflexion européen, dans leur dernier bulletin daté de mi-février.


Dans cette édition où il est question que la crise entre, au quatrième trimestre 2009, dans une phase de "dislocation géopolitique mondiale", les experts prévoient un "sauve-qui-peut généralisé" dans les pays frappés par la crise. Cette débandade se conclurait ensuite par des logiques d'affrontements, autrement dit, par des semi-guerres civiles.

"Si votre pays ou région est une zone où circulent massivement des armes à feu (parmi les grands pays, seuls les Etats-Unis sont dans ce cas), indique le LEAP, alors le meilleur moyen de faire face à la dislocation est de quitter votre région, si cela est possible."

Selon cette association, formée de contributeurs indépendants issus des milieux politiques et économiques et de professionnels européens de différents secteurs, les zones les plus dangereuses sont celles où le système de protection sociale est le plus faible.

La crise serait ainsi à même de susciter de violentes révoltes populaires dont l'intensité serait aggravée par une libre circulation des armes à feu. L'Amérique latine, mais aussi les Etats-Unis sont les zones les plus à risques. "Il y a 200 millions d'armes à feu en circulation aux Etats-Unis, et la violence sociale s'est déjà manifestée via les gangs", rappelle Franck Biancheri, à la tête de l'association. Les experts du LEAP décèlent d'ailleurs déjà des fuites de populations des Etats-Unis vers l'Europe, "où la dangerosité physique directe restera marginale", selon eux.

FAIRE DES RÉSERVES

Au-delà de ces conflits armés, le LEAP alerte sur les risques de pénuries possibles d'énergie, de nourriture, d'eau, dans les régions dépendantes de l'extérieur pour leur approvisionnement et conseille de faire des réserves. Cette perspective apocalyptique pourrait faire sourire si ce groupe de réflexion n'avait, dès février 2006, prédit avec une exactitude troublante le déclenchement et l'enchaînement de la crise.

Il y a trois ans, l'association décrivait ainsi la venue d'une "crise systémique mondiale", initiée par une infection financière globale liée au surendettement américain, suivie de l'effondrement boursier, en particulier en Asie et aux Etats-Unis (de - 50 % à - 20 % en un an), puis de l'éclatement de l'ensemble des bulles immobilières mondiales au Royaume-Uni, en Espagne, en France et dans les pays émergents. Tout cela provoquant une récession en Europe et une "très Grande Dépression" aux Etats-Unis.

Doit-on en conclure que la crise mondiale peut se transformer en guerre mondiale ? "Les pronostics de LEAP sont extrêmes, mais la violence sociale pointe", admet Laurence Boone, économiste chez Barclays.

Reste un espoir, une "dernière chance" selon le LEAP, qui résiderait dans la capacité du G20, qui se réunira le 2 avril à Londres, à arrêter un plan d'action "convaincant et audacieux". Dans ce cas, le monde ne serait toutefois pas tiré d'affaire, puisque les experts ne manquent de rappeler que se profile aussi une sévère crise climatique...

Claire Gatinois


Article paru dans l'édition du 27.02.09. [ I gather this apparently ran in LE MONDE? If so, that's a stunner, because it's pretty outlandish fare for this mainstream newspaper. The freaked out paranoia is going mainstream. ]

[Judas]

Re: What just happened?

Maybe I'm profoundly out of step with modern America, but "doomer" mentality and preparedness isn't some kind of sickness, but a return to normalcy.

As a kid we lived in a regular suburban-style neighborhood, but had a large garden and grew our own veggies that we put up by freezing and canning. We went fishing when the tautog were running and put up plenty of frozen fish. Keeping shotguns in the house and knowing how to use them was commonplace for home defense, and going to shoot trap was fun, along with game dinners. My grandpa gave some krugerrands to my parents for a "backup". Prep for blizzards or power outages or hurricanes was just what you did. Credit cards were for rich people or dire emergencies. Sewing torn clothes or getting shoes fixed was normal. This was the 1970s and early 1980s in New England, not Appalachia in the 1920s.

But somewhere along the way food was something that was served to you in restaurants or came out of a plastic container. Guns, one of our fundamental rights and common cultural artifacts, became scary boogeymen kept by shifty-eyed paranoids and militia members. Cutting up or even paying off credit cards is a sign of extreme distress. Gold? What are you crazy? You FIX things instead of throw them away? What's wrong with you?

Most of the "doomer" prep here is what we used to call "regular life".

[Jay]

Re: What just happened?

Maybe I'm profoundly out of step with modern America, but "doomer" mentality and preparedness isn't some kind of sickness, but a return to normalcy.

As a kid we lived in a regular suburban-style neighborhood, but had a large garden and grew our own veggies that we put up by freezing and canning. We went fishing when the tautog were running and put up plenty of frozen fish. Keeping shotguns in the house and knowing how to use them was commonplace for home defense, and going to shoot trap was fun, along with game dinners. My grandpa gave some krugerrands to my parents for a "backup". Prep for blizzards or power outages or hurricanes was just what you did. Credit cards were for rich people or dire emergencies. Sewing torn clothes or getting shoes fixed was normal. This was the 1970s and early 1980s in New England, not Appalachia in the 1920s.

But somewhere along the way food was something that was served to you in restaurants or came out of a plastic container. Guns, one of our fundamental rights and common cultural artifacts, became scary boogeymen kept by shifty-eyed paranoids and militia members. Cutting up or even paying off credit cards is a sign of extreme distress. Gold? What are you crazy? You FIX things instead of throw them away? What's wrong with you?

Most of the "doomer" prep here is what we used to call "regular life".

Great post Judas.

[jason]

alternate ending

The driver turns to the passengers and says, "Listen people, I am just as shocked as you are. But we can fix this if we work together. Let's gather all our valuables, including your credit cards and bank account details, and use the money to rescue ourselves from this god-awful place. If we can just calm down and take decisive action, we can all get to the beach I told you about. This is not the time or place for debate---look around you!" Upon receiving all the money, jewelry, credit, and savings that the passengers have, he pulls out a cell phone and makes one quick call. Shortly a helicopter flies in to rescue the driver and his friends, never to return, leaving everyone else behind to fend for themselves.

[zoog]

Re: What just happened?

I simply think people are over-reacting, as they are of wont to do. Fear is the mind-killer.

You guys carry on with your doomerism, I'm not here to stop you.

[jk]

Re: What just happened?

the stock market is listening to this thread

[simitpatel]

Re: What just happened?

I simply think people are over-reacting, as they are of wont to do. Fear is the mind-killer.

fear is indeed the mind killer, as those who afraid of the rationality of doomerism may have to learn the hard way. indeed, those who viewed itulip as doomers in 2006 have already learned this lesson the hard way.