What just happened?

[Guest]

Re: What just happened?

Fred - I've now got this comment archived. I think it may come back to haunt you in 12-18 months. There is a stock market explosion - or moonshot, however we want to call it - up ahead not too far away, which iTulip will then have to re-incorporate into their thesis, and that may be a bit awkward given the unequivocal prognosis below to the contrary. USD set to bust out on the upside soon now is my view and can rise into the mid-90's this time. Stock market after the completion of this meltdown can be like dry tinder doused in gasoline (when torched, it goes up, a lot).

Quite right! Apply the Japanese experience to the DJIA.

It's 2026. The DOW is trading at 2700, 81% below its peak.

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

[a warren]

Re: What just happened?

Luke, Is this explosion going to be nominal or real?

Fred - I've now got this comment archived. I think it may come back to haunt you in 12-18 months. There is a stock market explosion - or moonshot, however you will then want to call it - up ahead not too far away, which iTulip will have to laboriously re-incorporate into their thesis IMO quite soon.

[jtabeb]

Re: What just happened?

For Sale: Partially finished bunker. Motivated seller. Includes free snow shovel and armoured Hummer. Will consider trade for McMansion in the suburbs...

Sold!! For a fist-full of Ben Franklins! (or will trade for a large cash of firearms and ammunition, 20 year supply)

[jtabeb]

Re: What just happened?

Fred - I've now got this comment archived. I think it may come back to haunt you in 12-18 months. There is a stock market explosion - or moonshot, however we want to call it - up ahead not too far away, which iTulip will then have to re-incorporate into their thesis, and that may be a bit awkward given the unequivocal prognosis below to the contrary. USD set to bust out on the upside soon now is my view and can rise into the mid-90's this time. Stock market after the completion of this meltdown can be like dry tinder doused in gasoline (when torched, it goes up, a lot).

I don't think he means in real terms, do you luke? I look to the history and have to ask has there ever been a deflationary collapse on a FIAT currency?

Von Mises predicted a crack-up boom, I really can't see how it turns out otherwise.

What am I missing?

[orion]

Re: What just happened?

Lukester,

Could you expand more on your call.

How high and long is this moon shot?

What convinces people to be so optimistic? I guess it's not an inflation thing as you say dollar goes up.

You seem to imply this crisis ends quickly.

Stock market after the completion of this meltdown can be like dry tinder doused in gasoline (when torched, it goes up, a lot).

[metalman]

Re: What just happened?

Lukester,

Could you expand more on your call.

How high and long is this moon shot?

What convinces people to be so optimistic? I guess it's not an inflation thing as you say dollar goes up.

You seem to imply this crisis ends quickly.

give me ten bucks for ever massive rally that luke's called in the past 14 months and i'd retire.

[zoog]

Re: What just happened?

Lukester,

Could you expand more on your call.

How high and long is this moon shot?

What convinces people to be so optimistic? I guess it's not an inflation thing as you say dollar goes up.

You seem to imply this crisis ends quickly.

You've somehow missed his countless posts on the topic in numerous threads?:confused:

I think there is an even chance that a significant stock bull market in the US INDEXES kicks off in the next 18 months....

...I think it's gonna blow sky high. 28000 dow within 60 months and a stubbornly strong USD...

IMO - the advice to be owning some best of breed blue chip stocks at these beaten down levels is by no means clearly a crappy idea. There are one or two highly reputable analysts calling for a historic bull market up ahead in the US indexes. Kickoff date is uncertain, but the window they are suggesting is within 24 months at the very outside, and likely a lot sooner than that...

...I believe we are in for a period of several years of amazingly persistent USD strength as we observe a progressive disintegration of multiple currencies worldwide. This is one area where iTulip's exceedingly rational assessment may be kept waiting for longer than they project...

We're all waiting with baited breath to see if he's right or not.;) What if he is?:eek:

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: What just happened?

You've somehow missed his countless posts on the topic in numerous threads?:confused:

We're all waiting with baited breath to see if he's right or not.;) What if he is?:eek:

What kind of bait are you using for your breath?

[zoog]

Re: What just happened?

What kind of bait are you using for your breath?

lol... nightcrawlers, of course. Yum. Oops I meant [a]bated.

[raja]

Re: What just happened?

On the other hand, readers who are expecting a Mad Max world need to get a grip and re-read Are You a Doomer? Law abiding citizens do not turn into criminals overnight. Your town will not be run by warloards. There will be no wandering hoards of looters or ox-drawn Rolls Royces. That's Y2K stuff. Try to keep it in perspective, folks. Everything is going to get really, really slow for a while.

There are many gradations between "really slow" and Mad Max, and I think we're going to end up somewhere between these two.

IMO, "really slow" is too optimistic.
What about all the retirees who've already lost half their retirement nest eggs. You know they're going to lose a lot more. This means government ration cards for food and energy. These people won't call that "really slow".

And there are going to be a lot of formerly law-abiding citizens without enough for food that will start robbing those they perceive as more well off.

We're going to buy a watch dog . . . in fact, two of them.
My Ukrainian wife has lots of experience with what happens when poverty hits, and she says the criminals will poison the first dog, so you need to keep a second around the back. Her father in Ukraine has nine . . . and I can assure you they are nasty. :eek:

[ASH]

Re: What just happened?

You've somehow missed his countless posts on the topic in numerous threads?:confused:

We're all waiting with baited breath to see if he's right or not.;) What if he is?:eek:

I've been trying to keep score, a little.

This is from November 4th...

Look for a modest 2 month rally starting either now or shortly, and then as we get into January or February at latest look for another really vicious drop down. If you see the DOW breaking below it's 2002 lows, you'll know also that GANN GLOBAL has warned that that is the flag for a much bigger fall. Regardless, he places the probability of another very large leg down as *very high*.

...

At any rate if we see a market collapse into a second leg down in January / February we'll know that these "mere technicians" - Robert McHugh and GANN GLOBAL's James Flanagan, are doing a solid job as they purportedly have done for many years.

At the time, I asked...

So, if a major second leg down fails to materialize in 2-3 months, will you regard these refined technical methods as being discredited?

Lukester said yes, but as we see, the DJIA did break through its 2002 lows before the end of February.

This is just one data point... and I note that at the time, a big drop in January/February was supposed to flag a much bigger fall -- not presage a big run up. But still, I have to admit that the one time I was following closely, the scenario Lukester was predicting transpired in the time frame predicted.

[Guest]

Re: What just happened?

You two are a real coupla 'toons. Just you wait. I'm gonna be tweaking you about this.

lol... nightcrawlers, of course. Yum. Oops I meant [a]bated.

What kind of bait are you using for your breath?

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: What just happened?

lol... nightcrawlers, of course. Yum. Oops I meant [a]bated.

This is about as interesting as much other stuff here from time to time.

Waiting with bated breath is much different than waiting with abated breath. The latter wouldn't make it to the denouement unless it was imminently upon us.

[kartius919]

Re: What just happened?

The problem I think others are having is that a massive run-up in stocks would require hyperinflation. Unemployment is rising with no real bottom in sight. Thus less consumption and lower profits for many of the service sector, which there are many. So in real terms, most are expecting a decline in stock prices. However, in nominal terms, no one doubts the possibility of a large run up. I just can't fathom a scenario in which we have actual real growth. There is too much excess global supply of manufactured goods and insufficient global demand due to low global wages. The key driver I think would be oil and agriculture so might be best to keep a close eye on those commodities.

[c1ue]

Re: What just happened?

My Ukrainian wife has lots of experience with what happens when poverty hits, and she says the criminals will poison the first dog, so you need to keep a second around the back. Her father in Ukraine has nine . . . and I can assure you they are nasty.

Raja,

Your wife should take the dogs to security training. Among other things, security dogs are trained to never eat anything except given by hand from their responsible parties.

Just being vicious doesn't mean anything.