What just happened?

[cjppjc]

Re: What just happened?

How do you come to know this?

My reply was based on my personal experience with my own decisions, which more likely stick if they feel right and make sense to the all the ways I have of being aware of or analyzing my world. Major decisions leading to dramatic changes of direction that surprise even me, and which might guide my life for decades, can be made in the space of a day or so, if things line up right. Obviously, I cannot claim that my way of doing such things is the common or wisest course for others, so my extrapolation to the question at hand might be dubious.

So I ask how you have learned of this correlation you describe -- that the extent of time considering the purchase correlates with the probability of completing the transaction? And, for that matter, what the original poster seemed to be seeking was not an estimate of the probability of his completing the transaction, but rather insights into whether this would seem like a good economic, financial or other decision, from other people on this forum.

I am a real estate agent. Believe me, people who rush into buying a home BACK OUT more often then those who have taken the time to think and talk about purchasing a home. It's a waste of time, money, and sometimes the sellers will go under contract, and then those sellers go under contract..... and so on. It sucks when all those people get F..... over. People who have spent the time doing some research and soul searching are more emotionally invested in the transaction. They usually will close.

[markoboston]

Re: What just happened?

OK, well, for what it's worth, I've wanted to buy a house for years. I haven't been able to because I had a big grad school debt, and while I was paying it off, house prices were rising above what I could afford. So I rented and saved and saved. Now prices have fallen to the point that I can do it, with a mortgage, but with substantial savings left over to stock up. I just wonder if buying right now, when prices could drop a lot further, is a stupid idea. On the other hand, if I don't buy now, while mortgages are available and affordable and before things fall apart, I may not be able to buy before inflation evaporates my savings. I really want that big vegetable garden (and maybe some chickens) and a basement for stocking up. I would like a place of my own.

[jk]

Re: What just happened?

OK, well, for what it's worth, I've wanted to buy a house for years. I haven't been able to because I had a big grad school debt, and while I was paying it off, house prices were rising above what I could afford. So I rented and saved and saved. Now prices have fallen to the point that I can do it, with a mortgage, but with substantial savings left over to stock up. I just wonder if buying right now, when prices could drop a lot further, is a stupid idea. On the other hand, if I don't buy now, while mortgages are available and affordable and before things fall apart, I may not be able to buy before inflation evaporates my savings. I really want that big vegetable garden (and maybe some chickens) and a basement for stocking up. I would like a place of my own.

if you're buying the home as an investment, don't. if you're buying a home to live in and the finances make sense going forward - which sounds like the case - why not? you might check the math by looking at what the house would rent for, and whether you'd be better off renting a similar place instead of buying.

[cjppjc]

Re: What just happened?

OK, well, for what it's worth, I've wanted to buy a house for years. I haven't been able to because I had a big grad school debt, and while I was paying it off, house prices were rising above what I could afford. So I rented and saved and saved. Now prices have fallen to the point that I can do it, with a mortgage, but with substantial savings left over to stock up. I just wonder if buying right now, when prices could drop a lot further, is a stupid idea. On the other hand, if I don't buy now, while mortgages are available and affordable and before things fall apart, I may not be able to buy before inflation evaporates my savings. I really want that big vegetable garden (and maybe some chickens) and a basement for stocking up. I would like a place of my own.

Sounds like you want to buy a home. Will prices continue down? Very likely. Will rates move up and make up for any money saved on the purchase? Maybe. I can give you one piece of practical advise. The best time to purchase a home on the northeast, contrary to popular wisdom is in the dead of winter.

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: What just happened?

I am a real estate agent. Believe me, people who rush into ...

Well stated answer to my question - thanks.

[Forrest]

Re: What just happened?

Maybe I'm profoundly out of step with modern America, but "doomer" mentality and preparedness isn't some kind of sickness, but a return to normalcy...But somewhere along the way food was something that was served to you in restaurants or came out of a plastic container. Guns, one of our fundamental rights and common cultural artifacts, became scary boogeymen kept by shifty-eyed paranoids and militia members. Cutting up or even paying off credit cards is a sign of extreme distress. Gold? What are you crazy? You FIX things instead of throw them away? What's wrong with you?

Most of the "doomer" prep here is what we used to call "regular life".

I too was raised by Great Depression teenagers...one from a farm, one from a country suburb before suburbs existed.

My Dad made sure that we spent every summer at a 30's era cabin belonging to my grandmother near Yellowstone National Park, in Wyoming...no electricity, you carried water from the stream or spring in buckets hanging from a yoke; you cooked on a wood stove, and you dodged grizzlies and moose on the way out to the outhouse at night (moose are terrifying in the dark!). My Mom made sure we all learned to raise food, and most of my orchard trees still produce, with more young trees and vines going in this spring, and a lot of square foot gardening in 2'x2' pots.

Everyone I know has shot guns and scoped rifles for varmints (Two legged and four legged) and I have people shot as well as snake shot for the Colt Cobra (my, it is a sweet weapon...quiet, with almost no recoil!). Most of us gun owners in California got extra ammo the week Obama was elected...they're on back order now for months!. And although we live in So Cal, my family managed to find a couple of parcels of land (5-acres each), and when the grid goes down, which it seems to regularly, we only need gasoline for the generator to keep the wells going, and a large propane tank kept always half full. Next project is to get going with the plan of putting in an oldfashioned windmill for the wells as soon as possible, and with the drought, extra wells.

We are in earthquake territory, and above the snow line, and in high fire territory, so our roads get flooded out, mudded out, snowed out, burned out, and iced out, and we're used to being cut off, lighting candles and the oil hurricane lamps, and using wood stoves. The electric company is a co-op that goes out every time someone hits a pole, or the winds go over 70 mph. Batteries are kept in the spare freezer, and we have enough propane and gasoline to keeps things going...for a while.

I'd love to put in the bunker, but my Dad thought the gold would be of more use - and all that without reading i-Tulip (he bought his gold in 2004...my investments were less timely!) and since I built 14 years ago, and my Dad 22 years ago, I might be able to sell both houses off one day, and move to a lower tax state, with more water, and less extreme Liberals. My Dad's house is paid off, mine is still worth a bit more than I have against it, and the apartments support themselves with a nice income, so there is hope in the long run, but I'm probably stuck for ten years plus.

I'd love to stock up food for a year, but with my savings in gold, a bit of silver (for loose change), and cash reserves, I can only boast of about 3 months of food, and that would be eating skinny. So I keep buying staples, canned goods, and things I never use, like coffee, or canned fish, extra chocolate and excess sugar, matches, can-openers, as well as OTC medications, aspirin, and hydrogen peroxide, soap, shampoo, and excess toiletries, and what not to trade with. Otherwise, lots of bottled and dried fruit, canned meats, stews, soups, and some of the egregious MRES (to give away, mostly). But even my large two bedrooms are getting hard to walk in, due to the stacks of stuff in plastic stacking bins, and with our summer heat, putting them in a storage container or garage just won't do.

Adding to your hoard is wonderful in good times and bad, particularly when the nearest market is thirty miles away, but only if your neighbors are doing the same, and you happen to have a spare air conditioned barn, or a basement...and I don't! Those who can't or don't prepare I hope never stumble onto my property during a tense time, unless I know them well. I don't want to use the back hoe in that manner.

What I'd really like to get my hands on is the 2 1/2 year list of items my Mormon neighbors are rumored to have, for they are supposed to be the best at planning for emergencies of any group. (Any LDS please pm me if you can get me said list!)

Fortunately, there are enough gun owners in our small community to help form a protective band with those of us that value quiet privacy, (even if I'm not on terms with them to ask for details of what they are storing...it's a touchy topic!), while 2/3rd's of the remaining population are long time residents who mostly attend church, and help each other through our community church council, but have little enough themselves. Total residents...about 6000, spread out in a 30 mile x 30 mile area, and not too bad an area for a crowded state with a freeway 35 to 45 miles away in three different directions.

The problem is, so few people, even in my small area, can afford to, or are willing to prepare for very much...they are just getting by, and even those that do believe, at least officially when I am speaking about it, have to shrug off what might be needed due to their finances, or are in denial, not really believing that something might go wrong...even for a few weeks.

I'm glad for the guns, glad for the gold buried tidily under the third rose bush from the seventh tree behind the wellhouse, and especially glad for a trio of Dobermans helping to protect us from molestation with the illegals going by. Without a local police force, the best thing I can do is maintain a low profile.

Large homes are marvelous when things are bright and beautiful, but I sure am glad I downsized when I did. Living smaller, (from the outside, at least) and apparently more frugally than your neighbors is not a bad thing, with all that's going on, and I think it may be a good way to avoid being preyed upon if things get nasty. Strange how the local junkyard, complete with a very mean dog, and a guy with a shotgun, never gets bothered much, while the nicer places have the occasional problem. If things get nasty, perhaps the bad guys will not bother with my small dwelling complete with gun and dogs in favor of the McMansion down the street with the security service?

I am cautiously preparing for every way the cat can jump...isn't that what we are supposed to do? Be responsible, for ourselves, our families, and help our local communities as we can?

Realistically, there is only so much anyone can do to protect themselves from the bad guys, particularly when they are the ones running the country. And having drug cartels in power only 50 miles south is troubling...I fear an onslaught of refugees, particularly with Arnold and Co. welcoming them with open arms. (Schwartzeneggar's professed views not-with-standing...after all, he's married to a Kennedy with a very soft heart for the oppressed.)

No place is perfectly safe...no one can be protected from everything indefinately. Even the richest of us cannot outrun time, even if we outrun everthing else. The point for us all, is to survive all this mess with something in hand to go on with, and to do it as cheerfully and enjoyably as is possible. If we can manage not to lose what we have worked for, it will be very well.

Our task is to live the journey, and squirrel away a bit here and there for a rainy day, to munch on with a good book by candlelight...particularly when there's a hurricane hovering on the horizon.

And there are a lot of storm clouds out there.

[GRG55]

Re: What just happened?

OK, well, for what it's worth, I've wanted to buy a house for years. I haven't been able to because I had a big grad school debt, and while I was paying it off, house prices were rising above what I could afford. So I rented and saved and saved. Now prices have fallen to the point that I can do it, with a mortgage, but with substantial savings left over to stock up. I just wonder if buying right now, when prices could drop a lot further, is a stupid idea. On the other hand, if I don't buy now, while mortgages are available and affordable and before things fall apart, I may not be able to buy before inflation evaporates my savings. I really want that big vegetable garden (and maybe some chickens) and a basement for stocking up. I would like a place of my own.

One important factor to include in your analysis is just how mobile you prefer to remain. Real estate is not a liquid asset; a house is easier to buy than it is to sell...and selling a house in the future may be even more difficult still. So if you anticipate wanting [or having] to move elsewhere or live abroad, you might want to ask yourself how owning a house may help or hinder that. Just a thought from personal experience...

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: What just happened?

Forrest -- if you are (reasonably enough) concerned with an influx of drug gangs from south of the border, why did you choose that location to live?

[swgprop]

Re: What just happened?

Will prices continue down? Very likely.

OMG - A real estate agent predicting a drop in RE prices?? Heresy!! You risk the wrath of the NAR you know..

[Guest]

Re: What just happened?

Forrest -

<< But even my large two bedrooms are getting hard to walk in, due to the stacks of stuff in plastic stacking bins >>

Just my own opinion here, but the extent of your survivalist obsession and that of your father seems to border upon the unhealthy to this viewer. My parents were depression era kids also, yet I never got this sort of bunker mentality from them, nor would I want it, frankly. I remember reading fantasy books with this end of days theme when I was a teenager. Haven't bothered to read one ever since. The "preparedness" your family has embraced to this extent verges upon an undercurrent of emotional distress. You just won't ever use all this stuff guy. You'll wind up sheepishly eating some of those tinned foods in five years, figuring to consume them before they go bad, which will be after this economic collapse occurred and was subsequently resolved without any huge dramatic changes to your lifestyle other than at the general price level. Your "societal breakdown" never quite materialized, with the roving armed gangs of Mad Max characters. ... And the dobermanns ... protecting your "survival" food supplies and buried gold ... (!!)

Here's a deeply subversive, radical idea. Buy a cello, or a silver flute, and try falling in love with that as a thing of beauty, instead of the Colt Cobra. If your mind is repelled by this alternative, and finds it effete or even repugnant, that provides some real clues as to the hermetic mindset which your family's survivalist preoccupations have instilled in you. The "great depression teenagers" gambit is false. I also have parents to taught me much from that era, and the values they instilled had nothing remotely resembling your preoccupations.

I too was raised by Great Depression teenagers...one from a farm, one from a country suburb before suburbs existed.

My Dad made sure that we spent every summer at a 30's era cabin belonging to my grandmother near Yellowstone National Park, in Wyoming...no electricity, you carried water from the stream or spring in buckets hanging from a yoke; you cooked on a wood stove, and you dodged grizzlies and moose on the way out to the outhouse at night (moose are terrifying in the dark!). My Mom made sure we all learned to raise food, and most of my orchard trees still produce, with more young trees and vines going in this spring, and a lot of square foot gardening in 2'x2' pots.

Everyone I know has shot guns and scoped rifles for varmints (Two legged and four legged) and I have people shot as well as snake shot for the Colt Cobra (my, it is a sweet weapon...quiet, with almost no recoil!). Most of us gun owners in California got extra ammo the week Obama was elected...they're on back order now for months!. And although we live in So Cal, my family managed to find a couple of parcels of land (5-acres each), and when the grid goes down, which it seems to regularly, we only need gasoline for the generator to keep the wells going, and a large propane tank kept always half full. Next project is to get going with the plan of putting in an oldfashioned windmill for the wells as soon as possible, and with the drought, extra wells.

We are in earthquake territory, and above the snow line, and in high fire territory, so our roads get flooded out, mudded out, snowed out, burned out, and iced out, and we're used to being cut off, lighting candles and the oil hurricane lamps, and using wood stoves. The electric company is a co-op that goes out every time someone hits a pole, or the winds go over 70 mph. Batteries are kept in the spare freezer, and we have enough propane and gasoline to keeps things going...for a while.

I'd love to put in the bunker, but my Dad thought the gold would be of more use - and all that without reading i-Tulip (he bought his gold in 2004...my investments were less timely!) and since I built 14 years ago, and my Dad 22 years ago, I might be able to sell both houses off one day, and move to a lower tax state, with more water, and less extreme Liberals. My Dad's house is paid off, mine is still worth a bit more than I have against it, and the apartments support themselves with a nice income, so there is hope in the long run, but I'm probably stuck for ten years plus.

I'd love to stock up food for a year, but with my savings in gold, a bit of silver (for loose change), and cash reserves, I can only boast of about 3 months of food, and that would be eating skinny. So I keep buying staples, canned goods, and things I never use, like coffee, or canned fish, extra chocolate and excess sugar, matches, can-openers, as well as OTC medications, aspirin, and hydrogen peroxide, soap, shampoo, and excess toiletries, and what not to trade with. Otherwise, lots of bottled and dried fruit, canned meats, stews, soups, and some of the egregious MRES (to give away, mostly). But even my large two bedrooms are getting hard to walk in, due to the stacks of stuff in plastic stacking bins, and with our summer heat, putting them in a storage container or garage just won't do.

Adding to your hoard is wonderful in good times and bad, particularly when the nearest market is thirty miles away, but only if your neighbors are doing the same, and you happen to have a spare air conditioned barn, or a basement...and I don't! Those who can't or don't prepare I hope never stumble onto my property during a tense time, unless I know them well. I don't want to use the back hoe in that manner.

What I'd really like to get my hands on is the 2 1/2 year list of items my Mormon neighbors are rumored to have, for they are supposed to be the best at planning for emergencies of any group. (Any LDS please pm me if you can get me said list!)

Fortunately, there are enough gun owners in our small community to help form a protective band with those of us that value quiet privacy, (even if I'm not on terms with them to ask for details of what they are storing...it's a touchy topic!), while 2/3rd's of the remaining population are long time residents who mostly attend church, and help each other through our community church council, but have little enough themselves. Total residents...about 6000, spread out in a 30 mile x 30 mile area, and not too bad an area for a crowded state with a freeway 35 to 45 miles away in three different directions.

The problem is, so few people, even in my small area, can afford to, or are willing to prepare for very much...they are just getting by, and even those that do believe, at least officially when I am speaking about it, have to shrug off what might be needed due to their finances, or are in denial, not really believing that something might go wrong...even for a few weeks.

I'm glad for the guns, glad for the gold buried tidily under the third rose bush from the seventh tree behind the wellhouse, and especially glad for a trio of Dobermans helping to protect us from molestation with the illegals going by. Without a local police force, the best thing I can do is maintain a low profile.

Large homes are marvelous when things are bright and beautiful, but I sure am glad I downsized when I did. Living smaller, (from the outside, at least) and apparently more frugally than your neighbors is not a bad thing, with all that's going on, and I think it may be a good way to avoid being preyed upon if things get nasty. Strange how the local junkyard, complete with a very mean dog, and a guy with a shotgun, never gets bothered much, while the nicer places have the occasional problem. If things get nasty, perhaps the bad guys will not bother with my small dwelling complete with gun and dogs in favor of the McMansion down the street with the security service?

I am cautiously preparing for every way the cat can jump...isn't that what we are supposed to do? Be responsible, for ourselves, our families, and help our local communities as we can?

Realistically, there is only so much anyone can do to protect themselves from the bad guys, particularly when they are the ones running the country. And having drug cartels in power only 50 miles south is troubling...I fear an onslaught of refugees, particularly with Arnold and Co. welcoming them with open arms. (Schwartzeneggar's professed views not-with-standing...after all, he's married to a Kennedy with a very soft heart for the oppressed.)

No place is perfectly safe...no one can be protected from everything indefinately. Even the richest of us cannot outrun time, even if we outrun everthing else. The point for us all, is to survive all this mess with something in hand to go on with, and to do it as cheerfully and enjoyably as is possible. If we can manage not to lose what we have worked for, it will be very well.

Our task is to live the journey, and squirrel away a bit here and there for a rainy day, to munch on with a good book by candlelight...particularly when there's a hurricane hovering on the horizon.

And there are a lot of storm clouds out there.

[cjppjc]

Re: What just happened?

OMG - A real estate agent predicting a drop in RE prices?? Heresy!! You risk the wrath of the NAR you know..

The NAR ALWAYS has rosie assumptions, that's for sure. I remember about 2 years ago a colleague being quoted in a newpaper article as saying "Prices were already rising." I got a chuckle out of that.

[Forrest]

Re: What just happened?

Forrest - Just my own opinion here, but the extent of your survivalist obsession and that of your father seems to border upon the unhealthy to this viewer...Haven't bothered to read one ever since. The "preparedness" your family has embraced to this extent verges upon an undercurrent of emotional distress...

Hmmmm...not an obsession...not even a preoccupation...just part of the monthly shopping! The Aussies went so far as to order it's populace to stock up for six weeks of trouble, and that was before October '08. Having 3 month's supplies...3 month's scant supplies for my family, and those of my friends without means to provide a safety net for themselves is not unseemly.

I'd like more, investing in immediately useful commodities regularly allows me to buy in bulk as things become available at low prices, and if I don't sell them in the local community, I can eat them. I am buying in those commodities that make life pleasurable even in the midst of difficulties...have you seen the rise in coffee and sugar prices?. Also, my give-away MRE's doubled in value in two months from purchase last August...not a bad return on a 5 year investment intended for charity in the first place.

Emotional distress was not really a feature of our summers in the mountains...it was a lot of fun, but the knowledge of how to live during a time of difficulty is priceless, and I enjoyed writing about it, just as I enjoyed reading about every one else's ideas and plans.

You just won't ever use all this stuff guy. You'll wind up sheepishly eating some of those tinned foods in five years, figuring to consume them before they go bad, which will be after this economic collapse occurred and was subsequently resolved without any huge dramatic changes to your lifestyle other than at the general price level. Your "societal breakdown" never quite materialized, with the roving armed gangs of Mad Max characters. ... And the dobermanns ... protecting your "survival" food supplies and buried gold ... (!!)

My dear Lukester! The ' "survival" food supplies" ' I'm putting up against emergencies are simply an extended version of what your wife probably keeps in the pantry...providing you have space for a pantry, or time for a wife...you sound like a city guy that eats out a lot!!!

I don't expect societal breakdown to the point of Mad Max...I do expect the things needed for comfort to be in short supply from time to time...and living so far from Cost Co. and Ralph's makes it a requirement to have a lot of beer and chips at hand when friends drop in for a bar-b-que and the game of the week, not to mention keeping the freezers stocked with good steaks!

And my big black babies? They look fierce...they are supposed to, and yes, they bark and look mean, but they also sleep at the foot of the bed, and curl up at my feet in the living room. They are also better than a doorbell...particularly since my gate is 800ft from my front door, and everyone who knows me comes around to the back!

As for the buried gold...do you keep yours in a vault you've never seen, or something? Not to mention that I don't have trees near the well house...the roots might invade the pipes, and no one with sense plants rose bushes where they can't be seen!

Dude, lighten up!

[Guest]

Re: What just happened?

Hmmmm...not an obsession...not even a preoccupation... Dude, lighten up!

Uh huh. Whatever you say Forrest.

But even my large two bedrooms are getting hard to walk in, due to the stacks of stuff in plastic stacking bins

[kartius919]

Re: What just happened?

If everyone tells you not to buy a house, then is it time to buy a house?

[cjppjc]

Re: What just happened?

If everyone tells you not to buy a house, then is it time to buy a house?

Reread the posts on this page. GRG55 and JT make great points.