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Re: No such thing as a Treasury bond bubble
Uh, at 9:30 Monday am I buying proshares ultralong?
Uh, at 9:30 Monday am I buying proshares ultralong?
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Re: No such thing as a Treasury bond bubble
Okay, but gold is not the only hedge. And picking one hedge is always like betting it all on black or red. So what are the choices?Comment
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Re: No such thing as a Treasury bond bubble
Originally posted by FRED View Post
it may be set off by a random event...
to make everyone even more uncomfortable....
oddities in the dakotas....
http://www.legitgov.org/minot_afb_nukes_oddities.htmlComment
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Re: No such thing as a Treasury bond bubble
The Geithner Plan to come Monday:
Item #3 is "Cleansing legacy assets" (discussed about two minutes into this CNBC clip http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1024827668)
Isn't that the difference between the next 2,000 points in the Dow being up versus down???Comment
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Re: No such thing as a Treasury bond bubble
No such thing as a perfect crime. Logic always wins. Excess money supply and rising UST yields counterbalance each other.
If you view an asset's value as PV (Num/Den) where Num = cashflows and Den = interest rates, then here is a simple test about human reason: If we know the Govt is printing infinite amounts of money so that Num--> infinity, then logic suggests that Den --> infinity also because the bond markets will react. Question is which goes to infinity faster? If Num --> infinity faster, that means the value of financial assets will have a market value of infinity. If Den --> infinity faster, that means the market will value financial assets at zero. If we know the largescale printing of fiat money is a sham (your dog would have figured this out by now), then would you bet on an infinite or zero value for financial assets as their natural limit? I know my answer.Comment
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Re: No such thing as a Treasury bond bubble
I'm not smart enough for this board.
Of all the recent EJ posts, this one has me the most confused and panicked.
I have no idea what you are trying to say.
My gut says we are on the verge of inflationary depression.Comment
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Re: No such thing as a Treasury bond bubble
The next step: buying equities-
I think this is what Malaysia did after the Asian crisis, they weathered the crisis much better than say South Korea at the time as they also imposed capital controls.
EasternBelleComment
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Re: No such thing as a Treasury bond bubble
BullSh*t...
Govts to buy stocks, for whatever reason, no matter that the earnings are just plain bad and so are the forecasts, the govt funds will just be what the short sellers want, a strong bear market rally so that can sell into it.
Stocks go up, interest rates go with them (as you say the money will come out of bonds), then when interest rates get high enough and attractive money will flow back into bonds at better rates.
So central bank buying is doing the smart money a favour of getting out of stocks at higher prices and getting into bonds at better yields...thanks Central Banks.
Govt Buying mortgages, then stocks, with declining tax take, deficits growing, how stupid will that be..Germany 1935!!!Comment
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Re: No such thing as a Treasury bond bubble
It would be nice to receive some guidance regarding what to do. If you believe the fed is buying stocks, then why aren't you recommending that your readers do the same?Comment
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Re: No such thing as a Treasury bond bubble
The charts EJ used to put the market in the 5000-6000 range were nominal.
It seems to me that he is basically calling for a mother of a bear market rally in the context of the kapoom theory.Comment
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Re: No such thing as a Treasury bond bubble
Originally posted by goadam1 View Post
My view too.
I'm not sure what to make of it.Comment
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Re: No such thing as a Treasury bond bubble
Many of us revise our theories based on facts on the ground. Ej's comments seem like an obtuse way of saying that something may be afoot (does he have inside information). Or is this a trial balloon lofted into the itulip hive mind?Comment
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Re: No such thing as a Treasury bond bubble
I thought the charter of the Plunge Protection Team included the ability to intervene in the markets, so haven't we already been seeing some of this?
Government purchase of stocks with declining earnings is more likely to result in current stockholders selling into the rally than in causing funds to move out of bonds. Of course that doesn't mean that they won't try it (or try more of it than they are already doing).
It seems to me that if a solid floor in the markets were to become apparent, that might be enough to entice a considerable flow of funds from Treasuries into stocks, simply on a yield basis. The problem is that the bottom for earnings isn't yet in sight.Comment
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Re: No such thing as a Treasury bond bubble
I think they regularly intervene in the Dow and S&P futures market. I have no proof of course. But picking up large baskets of stocks through offshore funds they control would completely not surprise me.
There was, BTW, an article in today's NY Times showing that the return over the past 10 years on S&P is the worst ever.Comment
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Re: No such thing as a Treasury bond bubble
Originally posted by magicvent View Post
the people in government are so out of touch they can't seem to realise that the average earning worker/consumer has reached their debt limit and so can't buy any more.
if people can't afford stuff , company earnings will decline.
So why would you buy stocks in companies that are going to lose money or have much lower earnings?Comment
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