You too can forecast recessions! Secrets revealed! Here’s how! - Eric Janszen

[Mega]

Re: You too can forecast recessions! Secrets revealed! Here’s how! - Eric Janszen

"Step 4: Stress test your theories. Develop a 10,000 plus member community of smart business people from all over the USA and globe and listen to them as they respond to your analysis and describe what they are seeing. We cannot always be correct right out of the chute, so an army of bright people correcting our errors helps us refine our theories. Trip reports over a period of years are especially helpful because they give a perspective on how economic conditions are changing."


Happy to help EJ, if you want any more info just ask
Mike

[LargoWinch]

Re: You too can forecast recessions! Secrets revealed! Here’s how!

Wow, a reply from the master himself (great stuff btw)! Thanks bart.

[bart]

Re: You too can forecast recessions! Secrets revealed! Here’s how!

Wow, a reply from the master himself (great stuff btw)! Thanks bart.

You're welcome LW... and I'm not sure whether to give it an "aw shucks, tweren't nuthin'" or just blush... ;)


By the way, here's my M3 reconstruction (created before John Williams came out with his) which shows a slightly different but similar picture. I recently added the 10 week moving average so it was more easily comparable with his.

[ocelotl]

Re: You too can forecast recessions! Secrets revealed! Here’s how!

The FIRE economy isn't going down without a fight... to which:

Any ITulip opinion on the newest plan floated today about buying treasuries to force mortgage rates down to 4.5% to reinvigorate housing? Should I expect The Donald to latch onto the plan to push his Trump Baja project and show up in my e-mail inbox with a "terrific deal!"

http://www.trump-baja.com/

Once during my University Years I thought of turning into an Astronomical Instrumentation Specialist, based in Ensenada Campus of UNAM... Real life has had different plans so far...

My first post around here was related to an article comparing the US Economy with the outcome of Mexican development of 80's and 90's crisis (Can the U.S.A. have a "Peso Problem"). I pointed out several considerations among my personal experience during the period, and did a couple of calls based on them... I still think we have a combination in U.S. Macroeconomics of Mexico 1981-2 (High debt and nationalization of Banks) with Mexico 1994-5 (Sudden stop), and that U.S. may see several of the points covered in the original thread, specially on the side of population disturbances.

The point that is different is the reserve currency status, that can change on a flight to other currencies and commodities, but it will have to wait until a decent level of deleveraging happens, and that is still going to take at least another year or two.

[Guest]

Re: You too can forecast recessions! Secrets revealed! Here’s how!

The point that is different is the reserve currency status, that can change on a flight to other currencies and commodities, but it will have to wait until a decent level of deleveraging happens, and that is still going to take at least another year or two.

I agree 100% Ocelotl. Can easily be two years (or longer) before the USD shows signs of finally responding to the fundamentals. Markets can stay irrational longer than ... etc.

[LargoWinch]

Re: You too can forecast recessions! Secrets revealed! Here’s how!

I agree 100% Ocelotl. Can easily be two years (or longer) before the USD shows signs of finally responding to the fundamentals. Markets can stay irrational longer than ... etc.

Lukester (like you I believe), I am very bullish on energy (sweet crude especially). I am also dying to load up on crude oil, which I have no exposure too at the moment (sold my 2% today - long and sad story).

Would you happen to know the global costs of production for crude? I mean, I cannot image the price of oil dipping below production costs...

[bart]

Re: You too can forecast recessions! Secrets revealed! Here’s how! - Eric Janszen

A chart to make you go hmmmm..., based on this and the last hard asset cycle...

[Guest]

Re: You too can forecast recessions! Secrets revealed! Here’s how!

LargoWinch - Yummy light sweet crude! (slurp slurp). I don't know that there is a global cost - it's all over the map depending on the fields, no? But one thing seems sure is that anywhere south of $60-$70 a barrel the Canadian Oil sands shares will keep getting chewed to a pulp. The entire oil complex today - given where we know it has to wind up 6-10 years from now, seems the most astonishing gift - likely even if you have a 5 year time horizon. Bensimon is (was?) calling for the most mind boggling gyrations in the petroleum price over just the next 3-5 years. According to him it winds up at $450 a barrel out in the mid part of the next decade. From $47 today?? :eek: Uhm, what is that expressed as a percentage gain? No need to dink around with oil exploration juniors. Just owning a basket of the blue chips at these levels, if they go even halfway to the prices Bensimon was referring to out in 2015, these are life-changing investments somewhere out there. We're talking about stodgy blue chip oil stocks being "life changing investments" from these levels.

Lukester (like you I believe), I am very bullish on energy (sweet crude especially). I am also dying to load up on crude oil, which I have no exposure too at the moment (sold my 2% today - long and sad story). Would you happen to know the global costs of production for crude? I mean, I cannot image the price of oil dipping below production costs...

[VIT]

Re: You too can forecast recessions! Secrets revealed! Here’s how!

Lukester (like you I believe), I am very bullish on energy (sweet crude especially). I am also dying to load up on crude oil, which I have no exposure too at the moment (sold my 2% today - long and sad story).

Would you happen to know the global costs of production for crude? I mean, I cannot image the price of oil dipping below production costs...

It's varies. In Russia its 3-10 USD/bbl. In Middle East I would expect it even less.Very insignificant portion of oil was producing at 50+ USD/bbl. This does not include finding and development costs which are the big part of the equation. The production costs were rising last years mainly because service became more expensive so do not be fooled by this behavior.

The bottom line - do not look pure on "average production costs", the overall distribution is important.

[Guest]

Re: You too can forecast recessions! Secrets revealed! Here’s how! - Eric Janszen

Bart -

This is definitely one of your more ambiguous charts in terms of what it may be hinting at. At least it ain't clear enough to me. What I read is a multi year period of range bound trading ahead.

A chart to make you go hmmmm..., based on this and the last hard asset cycle...

[bart]

Re: You too can forecast recessions! Secrets revealed! Here’s how! - Eric Janszen

Bart -

This is definitely one of your more ambiguous charts in terms of what it may be hinting at. At least it ain't clear enough to me. What I read is a multi year period of range bound trading ahead.

Yes, the correlations definitely are not as good as many of the others charts comparing the two time periods. But I think you did get the possibility that it shows - a continuing uptrend and then roughly flat for a year or two.

I personally don't think its a high probability scenario at all and think its much more likely that we get a significant reversal during the next year... but then again I didn't think the Berlin Wall would come down either.

Basically, the chart is just food for thought - especially since its something that virtually no one is considering.

[Chief Tomahawk]

Re: You too can forecast recessions! Secrets revealed! Here’s how! - Eric Janszen

Pssst! EJ/Fred: I just noticed the copyright year at the bottom of the main page and also this piece by Eric is 2007. Might be time to leap frog 2008 and change it to 2009.

[Chief Tomahawk]

Re: You too can forecast recessions! Secrets revealed! Here’s how!

Wow! Did I trudge out old material or what?!? Not one comment about the Trump-Baja project. I bet Bear Stearns was the financier on that one....

[Chris Coles]

Re: You too can forecast recessions! Secrets revealed! Here’s how! - Eric Janszen

This might help those that are still having difficulties understanding what EJ is talking about. Newsnight is the UK's premier TV Late evening intellectual news show. You will get a very neat explanation of "Quantitative Easing" for example. The economic debate takes up some 23 minutes at the start of the show and is very worth the time taken to watch.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/player/nol/new...t=true&bbcws=2

EJ, you might find of particular interest, the comments by Prof. Robert Reich who is a member of Barack Obama's team.

"Consumers have run out of money" Shows that their general belief, certainly by Prof. Robert Reich; completely endorses your viewpoint as you have set out in this thread.

And, I might add, shows that the message I have been also working to get across, that the "grass roots" have run out of money, is also recognised.

Enjoy!

[LargoWinch]

Re: You too can forecast recessions! Secrets revealed! Here’s how!

Thanks Lukester. Your insight is much appreciated.

You see, like Jk, I've got an itchy finger and on Monday this week I put 2% of my net worth in crude (2x leverage, $CND hedged), BUT got my ass handed over to me when crude declined from $49 to now $42: a 29% loss in 4 business days.

...so I went back home packing, crying like a little girl.

However, I am still very bullish on crude and will jump in again with even more $$$ sometimes next year.