Fishing for shorts: Two we caught, two that got away, and what we learned - Eric Janszen

[FRED]

Re: Fishing for shorts: Two we caught, two that got away, and what we learned

I hope that wasnt addressed to me. I was just pointing out the Schiff doesnt have anything to do with that mutual fund. Ive seen other people mention that his "fund" has lost money, but I always just thought they were referring to his stock recommendations.

I wasnt trying to insult anyone and I hope it didnt come off that way in my first post.

Absolutely not addressed to you. Civilized criticism and well documented specific errors are what make iTulip tick!

[dbarberic]

Re: Fishing for shorts: Two we caught, two that got away, and what we learned

So... what ideas can we use to play this.

I found the Proshares Ultrashort ETFs.

SCC - Ultrashort Consumer Services

Holdings (based on index that SCC shorts):
13.63% WAL-MART STORES INC
6.51% MCDONALD'S CORP
4.22% CVS CAREMARK CORP
3.91% THE WALT DISNEY CO.
3.55% HOME DEPOT INC
3.54% TIME WARNER INC
3.06% COMCAST CORP-CL A
2.84% LOWE'S COS INC
2.58% TARGET CORP
2.39% WALGREEN CO

Sectors (based on index that SCC shorts):
45.30% General Retailers
23.51% Media
16.36% Travel & Leisure
14.77% Food & Drug Retailers
0.05% S-T Securities

SZK - Ultrashort Consumer Goods

Holdings (based on index that SZK shorts):
18.22% PROCTER&GAMB LE CO
9.11% COCA-COLA CO/THE
8.35% PHILIP MORRIS INTERNATIONAL
8.30% PEPSICO INC
4.60% ANHEUSER-BUSCH COS INC.
4.37% MONSANTO CO
3.63% KRAFT FOODS INC-A
3.44% ALTRIA GROUP INC
3.03% COLGATE-P ALMOLIVE CO
2.30% KIMBERLY-CLARK CORP

Sectors (based on index that SZK shorts):
24.73% Beverages
23.38% Household Goods & Home Construction
20.14% Food Producers
14.51% Tobacco
10.33% Personal Goods
3.43% Leisure Goods
3.22% Automobiles & Parts
0.09% S-T Securities


I don't like the fact that for both of these shorting options the top retailer is Walmart for SCC and for SZK the top holding is P&G. Both of these seem to me would benefit from a consumer slow down.

Is anyone else aware of better EFTs options to play this game?

I guess no one wants to talk investment opportunities.... rather they want to nitpick EJ's comments.

[we_are_toast]

Re: Fishing for shorts: Two we caught, two that got away, and what we learned

I guess no one wants to talk investment opportunities.... rather they want to nitpick EJ's comments.

Thanks for the post. I like your etf's. These are Ultra shorts and the Walmart and P&G might be good if you want to be kinda ultra short.

Here are some more that others have posted in other threads.

Ultra short bonds;
PST TBT

Long 20 yr
TLT

Ultra long oil stocks:
DIG

Ultra short dow
DXD

short financials:
SKF

But with things so crazy, EJ's allocation looks pretty good.

[RebbePete]

Re: Fishing for shorts: Two we caught, two that got away, and what we learned

Is anyone else aware of better EFTs options to play this game?

I've been in the Proshares Ultrashort Financials ETF (SKF) for a while, but it's been a bit of a roller coaster with all the bailouts and prohibitions against shorting some of the big fish. I've still doubled my money (as of this minute of this day :cool, so it's been a good buy. I just wish I had put more money into it, and a little less into PMs (and a lot less into Canadian junior minors)!

Then again, if I were a genius, I could have traded SKF and made quite a bit more.

[ax]

Re: Fishing for shorts: Two we caught, two that got away, and what we learned

Don't forget a third one you "got" along with Phirang, CRE. GGP is ready to declare bankruptcy. And I thought I did well by shorting it for a 50% gain. Hah! My worst case scenarios have not been bad enough....

[bpr]

Re: Fishing for shorts: Two we caught, two that got away, and what we learned

I don't like the fact that for both of these shorting options the top retailer is Walmart for SCC and for SZK the top holding is P&G. Both of these seem to me would benefit from a consumer slow down.

You're right. I think the only way to play this is as a long-short hedge, long PG and WMT as well as the short ETFs. The longs in PG and WMT would work as the hedges, of course.

I've been in the Proshares Ultrashort Financials ETF (SKF) for a while, but it's been a bit of a roller coaster with all the bailouts and prohibitions against shorting some of the big fish. I've still doubled my money (as of this minute of this day :cool, so it's been a good buy. I just wish I had put more money into it, and a little less into PMs (and a lot less into Canadian junior minors)!

Then again, if I were a genius, I could have traded SKF and made quite a bit more.

This is another one where you want to lok at the major holdings. I've done well with SKF hedging my bet on USB. I think there may be more banks at reasonable prices now with SKF as the hedge.

[walenk]

Harley Davidson, Doh!

Harley's down, double Doh!
But it will be one of my pivots. Trophy/toy in good times, transportation in bad times.

Big bottom, big bottom
Talk about your mud-flaps
My ride's gottem'
How can I leave that behind?

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081114/mover...dson.html?.v=1

[Nicolasd]

Re: Harley Davidson, Doh!

Harley's down, double Doh!
But it will be one of my pivots. Trophy/toy in good times, transportation in bad times.

Big bottom, big bottom
Talk about your mud-flaps
My ride's gottem'
How can I leave that behind?

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081114/mover...dson.html?.v=1

Perhaps they should consider moving their production facility to India
Here is what they would sound like--No offense to our Indian brethrens