Unemployment by industry: Recession or depression? - Eric Janszen

[tsetsefly]

Re: Unemployment by industry: Recession or depression?

Well, your work as usual is very helpful, comprehensive and well done, EJ.

But as usual in this case your conclusion could not be more wrong.

What we need to forestall depression are measures such as:

1. repeal tax on dividends

2. repeal capital gains tax

3. repeal income tax on corporations

4. END THE WARS so that taxes can be lowered

5. Did I mention END THE WARS?

6. End the bailouts of companies that should go belly up

The whole problem with our economy is encouraging consumption, discouraging savings and discouraging investment.

"Stimulus" is more of the same, depreciating stores of private savings, thus dis-incentivizing savings and investment, and encouraging consumption.

Ugh.

agree, part of what caused the outsourcing of jobs where high corporate tax rates on manufacturers...
FDR's programs during the depression proved to worsen the depression, what we need is the government to allow that innovative middle class to innovate, that is cut down on taxes and regulations that punish investment and saving...

[grapejelly]

Re: Unemployment by industry: Recession or depression?

agree, part of what caused the outsourcing of jobs where high corporate tax rates on manufacturers...
FDR's programs during the depression proved to worsen the depression, what we need is the government to allow that innovative middle class to innovate, that is cut down on taxes and regulations that punish investment and saving...

spot on. And the worst that the gubmint can do is to further "stimulate" the economy, subsidize failing firms, provide bailout money to the banks. In short, exactly what the gubmint is doing now...and what FDR did...almost assures the economic problems will become worse than they otherwise would be.

[ST]

Re: Unemployment by industry: Recession or depression? - Eric Janszen

governments walk down the list of ugly options and choose the one that create the least pain for itself, the lowest unemployment. That is not Option 3, a 1930s style deflation. That option is Option 1: a high inflation, higher than the 1970s, but not a hyperinflation.

Question is what are they waiting for? Has there not been enough pain in asset markets yet? Not enough pain in unemployment yet to justify the higher future inflation to the public once it arrives?

[metalman]

Re: Unemployment by industry: Recession or depression? - Eric Janszen

Question is what are they waiting for? Has there not been enough pain in asset markets yet? Not enough pain in unemployment yet to justify the higher future inflation to the public once it arrives?

waiting? you're kidding.

[grapejelly]

Re: Unemployment by industry: Recession or depression? - Eric Janszen

waiting? you're kidding.

yep...all seized up! Or what is the line this week?

[ST]

Re: Unemployment by industry: Recession or depression? - Eric Janszen

waiting? you're kidding.

metalman,

I should clarify. I mean I am under the impression that this expansion was anticipated not to work in devaluing the dollar. My impression was that this in itself wasn't the action that would push the dollar over the cliff and that something more was going to be required- as alluded to in the recent EJ articles - i.e. they make some statements about how they are going revalue down so sentiment has an effect to overpower repatriotation - or central banks just get together and do it.

The dollar has only appreciated due reasons we all understand so when I say what are they waiting for - I mean the silver bullet - could it happen at anytime on its own soley due to foreign central bank sentiment shift? or will it be a coordination to sell of dollars?

And once again I ask the same question I've asked a million times - if a sharp devaluation could happen at any time, why in the world would you want to sit 80% in USD treasuries? when some commodity currencies should at that point offer more protection esp. now that they have been hammered?

Do you think there is more pain to come and that the duration of 13 wk treasuries will give you ample time to get out? I understand that other currencies might be a temporary solution wrt other currencies also devaluing eventually.

[metalman]

Re: Unemployment by industry: Recession or depression? - Eric Janszen

metalman,

I should clarify. I mean I am under the impression that this expansion was anticipated not to work in devaluing the dollar. My impression was that this in itself wasn't the action that would push the dollar over the cliff and that something more was going to be required- as alluded to in the recent EJ articles - i.e. they make some statements about how they are going revalue down so sentiment has an effect to overpower repatriotation - or central banks just get together and do it.

The dollar has only appreciated due reasons we all understand so when I say what are they waiting for - I mean the silver bullet - could it happen at anytime on its own soley due to foreign central bank sentiment shift? or will it be a coordination to sell of dollars?

And once again I ask the same question I've asked a million times - if a sharp devaluation could happen at any time, why in the world would you want to sit 80% in USD treasuries? when some commodity currencies should at that point offer more protection esp. now that they have been hammered?

Do you think there is more pain to come and that the duration of 13 wk treasuries will give you ample time to get out? I understand that other currencies might be a temporary solution wrt other currencies also devaluing eventually.

no this is the action that might scare usa creditors into selling...

The unthinkable

[ST]

Re: Unemployment by industry: Recession or depression? - Eric Janszen

no this is the action that might scare usa creditors into selling...

The unthinkable

Thanks was a little confused on that and since FRED last night referred to the coming "coordinated, global debt monetization" as if it will be deliberate and orderly rather than one or two creditors deciding to not want to individually purchase US debt.

thoughts on the 13 wk treasury risk question? i.e. sitting in USD assets when the dollar could fall off a cliff any day?

thanks for your patience.

[metalman]

Re: Unemployment by industry: Recession or depression? - Eric Janszen

Thanks was a little confused on that and since FRED last night referred to the coming "coordinated, global debt monetization" as if it will be deliberate and orderly rather than one or two creditors deciding to not want to individually purchase US debt.

thoughts on the 13 wk treasury risk question? i.e. sitting in USD assets when the dollar could fall off a cliff any day?

thanks for your patience.

if the dollar tanks the short end blows up first for the obvious reason that the bill mature sooner. every 13 wks you roll 'em over... 1%, 4%, 8%, 12%, 16%, 24%, wheeeee!

[grapejelly]

Re: Unemployment by industry: Recession or depression? - Eric Janszen

the deleveraging has a lot further to go for the USD to tank...6 months or so I think.

[Slimprofits]

Re: Unemployment by industry: Recession or depression? - Eric Janszen

How do the official unemployment treatment numbers treat new high school and college graduates, that have never worked full-time and are seeking full-time jobs?

[metalman]

Re: Unemployment by industry: Recession or depression? - Eric Janszen

How do the official unemployment treatment numbers treat new high school and college graduates, that have never worked full-time and are seeking full-time jobs?

http://www.bls.gov/data/

Both sexes, 16 to 19 years      

  Civilian noninstitutional population.........   17,064    17,076    17,064    17,064    17,098    17,090    17,083    17,076    17,064 
    Civilian labor force.......................    7,020     6,066     6,430     7,231     6,547     6,610     6,493     6,501     6,573 
          Participation rate...................     41.1      35.5      37.7      42.4      38.3      38.7      38.0      38.1      38.5 
      Employed.................................    5,660     4,799     4,910     5,868     5,188     5,184     5,083     5,103     5,082 
          Employment-population ratio..........     33.2      28.1      28.8      34.4      30.3      30.3      29.8      29.9      29.8 
      Unemployed...............................    1,360     1,267     1,520     1,363     1,359     1,427     1,410     1,398     1,491 
          Unemployment rate....................     19.4      20.9      23.6      18.9      20.8      21.6      21.7      21.5      22.7 
    Not in labor force.........................   10,044    11,010    10,634     9,834    10,551    10,480    10,590    10,575    10,491

[Slimprofits]

Re: Unemployment by industry: Recession or depression? - Eric Janszen

thank you.