Unemployment by industry: Recession or depression? - Eric Janszen

[lurker]

Re: Unemployment by industry: Recession or depression?

I definitely agree with "end the wars" but aren't both Afghanistan and Iraq "off budget" anyway? We're not paying higher taxes to fund them (if we were the wars would have ended a long time ago), we're simply borrowing the money. So ending the wars only means not having to borrow the money to fund them. It can maybe reduce the taxes on the future generations that have to pay the borrowed money back, but I don't see how it could affect current taxes?

Ending the wars and keeping borrowing at current levels would allow the government to spend more on reconstruction of the US (Alt-E, infrastructure).

[dcarrigg]

Re: Unemployment by industry: Recession or depression?

an interesting sector to follow will be state and local government. given, on the one hand, a squeeze on sales taxes and local income taxes along with balanced budget mandates, and on the other hand the fact that they've already gone to the federal government with their begging bowl, there's potentially a large swing built in here.

jk, you are right on point, I think. When looking at Rhode Island, the state with the worst unemployment and the fastest rising unemployment in the nation, this state/local government sector is already fast declining due to huge budget shortfalls and an inability to borrow as creatively as, say, Californina. RI, which has been in an unquestioned recession for about a year now, is likely a microchasm of what is to come for most of the US.



http://www.projo.com/news/content/RI...6.3d4c6ba.html

http://www3.whdh.com/news/articles/local/BO93568/
http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2008/...ap5603549.html

[metalman]

Re: Unemployment by industry: Recession or depression?

Ending the wars and keeping borrowing at current levels would allow the government to spend more on reconstruction of the US (Alt-E, infrastructure).

i'm not as optimistic as some here that the invisible hand has a chance against the visible hands that are grabbing at... what did hudson call it years ago? the economic/political 'jump ball'.

rant warning... :eek:

i bet 99% of the free marketeers here are engineers. in their fantasy world economic and political power is given up to no one in particular on the basis of abstract theories and no ambitious & greedy guys leap into the vacuum to grab control of the levers and money flow. take the kind of gee whiz free market solutions to this crisis like the ones some of you are proposing here and bring them to the hank paulsons of the world... well, be prepared for him and his buddies drag your ass into the boys room, stick your head in the toilet and steal your lunch money.

this picture says it all. can you imagine obama or clinton or mccain allowing themselves to be photographed this way? i love the guy and his fight to get some real issues on the agenda.. no doubt a good guy and someone you'd want to hang with, but... this is a leader?


it's a battle, guys. face the facts. ron paul can wave his ideological flag from the kiddies table but the adults at the big table are making the decisions that will make or break this country. get with the program!

the economy is imploding.

the data here are tough to argue with... unemployment will go way up next year. the 'whining' will turn into something much worse.

the fed's out of rate cuts and running out of money.

the usa is running out of credit.

what PRACTICAL solutions do you have besides...

'Liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate. That will purge the rottenness out of the system. High costs of living and high living will come down. People will work harder, live a more moral life. Values will be adjusted, and enterprising people will pick up from less competent people.' -Andrew W. Mellon, 1931

didn't work last time, won't work this time.

[don]

Re: Unemployment by industry: Recession or depression? - Eric Janszen

Boots on the ground anecdote: We shop at a small supermarket chain (a dozen or so stores) that pitches its tent between Safeway and Whole Foods. Definitely 'higher middle class' but nowhere boutique. We noticed a few friendly faces missing and asked an employee we knew well enough what was up. She said three people- a butcher, a cheese seller and a deli saleswoman- were all canned in one week for rules violations. I didn't ask but I assume something like marijuana smoking in the john. They were all seasoned employees. Would they have been summarily canned if the economy was booming or be let off with less than dismissal? Times are getting tougher and this chain is in a struggle for its survival.

(Comment Bonus: Consider this a free-shot gift to all the self-righteous Libertarians on site :p)

[LazyBoy]

Re: Unemployment by industry: Recession or depression?

(Regarding a works program...)

yes of course...how will they fund it...and more than that, how is this any different than what failed in the 1930s in the US and in the 1990s in Japan?

I don't know history well enough, so I'll stick my neck out.

Should we let the unemployed masses starve?
If the government is going to feed them anyway, why not
do it in exchange for work? Infrastructure work is needed,
so...

[metalman]

Re: Unemployment by industry: Recession or depression?

(Regarding a works program...)



I don't know history well enough, so I'll stick my neck out.

Should we let the unemployed masses starve?
If the government is going to feed them anyway, why not
do it in exchange for work? Infrastructure work is needed,
so...

plenty will wind up in gangs and robbing and mugging before they starve.. then in prison. can we build high tech high speed rail with chain gangs? sure... if enough of them will have a phds in physics. :mad:

tip for free marketeers... prisons aren't cheap.

[BobH]

Re: Unemployment by industry: Recession or depression? - Eric Janszen

EJ, these are just jaw-dropping numbers!

Would it be possible to have you update your state unemployment numbers. With national numbers being forecasted at somewhere between ~12 - 17%, the state numbers in certain states must be well above that!

For instance, as I recall, your numbers for California were to have peaked at ~10%.

FWIW, I'm in the retail service business. Nothing has dramactically happened yet but you can sure feel it coming! First of the year is my guess. We will, most likely, be lucky to survive this and we have been in the business for over 20 years.

Finally, thank you to the poster that put up the Food Stamp increases by state. A 32% increase from 7/2003 to 7/2008! Most of this time was during the so-called growth years! WOW!

[zoog]

Re: Unemployment by industry: Recession or depression? - Eric Janszen

I Think the number is a little understated as you have to factor in the number of food stamp recipients.

Food Stamp Participation in July 2008 Tops 29 Million

here is a chart showing the increase over the last 5 years....Modern version of the soup line?

...Finally, thank you to the poster that put up the Food Stamp increases by state. A 32% increase from 7/2003 to 7/2008! Most of this time was during the so-called growth years! WOW!

I have posted this chart before but here is an update with data through August 2008 from the USDA website. As a percentage of the national population, the number of participants in the food stamp program has indeed been growing for a few years now. It has been this high before though, as the chart shows.

[grapejelly]

Re: Unemployment by industry: Recession or depression? - Eric Janszen

(Regarding a works program...)
I don't know history well enough, so I'll stick my neck out.

Should we let the unemployed masses starve?
If the government is going to feed them anyway, why not
do it in exchange for work? Infrastructure work is needed,
so...

So let's make unemployed people into slaves. Pay their room and board in exchange for their working. Wasn't that somehow outlawed in all Western countries like 150 years ago, or am I thinking of something else??

the economy is imploding.

the data here are tough to argue with... unemployment will go way up next year. the 'whining' will turn into something much worse.

the fed's out of rate cuts and running out of money.

the usa is running out of credit.

what PRACTICAL solutions do you have besides...

'Liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate. That will purge the rottenness out of the system. High costs of living and high living will come down. People will work harder, live a more moral life. Values will be adjusted, and enterprising people will pick up from less competent people.' -Andrew W. Mellon, 1931

didn't work last time, won't work this time.

It wasn't TRIED last time!!! It was "stimulus" all the way, and the Great Depression resulted! When stimulus WASN'T used, in 1921, the Depression lasted 18 months.

We need some leadership here. Which I agree, we are not getting. But that doesn't make it true that "stimulus" is completely WRONG and will perpetuate the depression and make it almost endless.

If the gubmint had just let things adjust, the depression would have lasted a few years and then been fine. The gubmint made it ENDLESS by stealing people's private investment and savings, and paying people who were not productive to do things the private sector didn't value.

So we have "stimulus" that steals from productive, investing people, and pays it to non productive people in make-work jobs...and this is somehow A-OKAY?

We're not talking ideologies here. We're talking about what works vs. what makes the problem WORSE.

Let me repeat: the problem is LACK of savings, LACK of investment. It isn't lack of CONSUMPTION although it looks that way. When people are saving, they are consuming LESS than they earn. That is GOOD because that investment can be employed in building businesses and creating real wealth.

But when the gubmint TAKES this money away through confiscatory taxes OR currency depreciation (we have a lot of both), then the lack of savings and investment PERPETUATES with no end!

plenty will wind up in gangs and robbing and mugging before they starve.. then in prison. can we build high tech high speed rail with chain gangs? sure... if enough of them will have a phds in physics. :mad:

tip for free marketeers... prisons aren't cheap.

I'm not sure what this even means. Are you suggesting we bring back slavery?

[FRED]

Re: Unemployment by industry: Recession or depression? - Eric Janszen

EJ, these are just jaw-dropping numbers!

Would it be possible to have you update your state unemployment numbers. With national numbers being forecasted at somewhere between ~12 - 17%, the state numbers in certain states must be well above that!

For instance, as I recall, your numbers for California were to have peaked at ~10%.

FWIW, I'm in the retail service business. Nothing has dramactically happened yet but you can sure feel it coming! First of the year is my guess. We will, most likely, be lucky to survive this and we have been in the business for over 20 years.

Finally, thank you to the poster that put up the Food Stamp increases by state. A 32% increase from 7/2003 to 7/2008! Most of this time was during the so-called growth years! WOW!

Here you go! Ranked by unemployment growth, the > 2% growth in unemployment prize winners are: FL, TN, NV, ID, CA and AZ. Most of them housing bubble states. RI takes the "almost 4%" prize in a class by itself. All of this before the credit crunch and drop-off in lending started.

[BobH]

Re: Unemployment by industry: Recession or depression? - Eric Janszen

Ed, didn't you guys do a 'forecast' of what the unemployment percentage would be for each state? Some how I recall this! If so, I was looking for an update on your forecast by state.

Thanks and sorry for the mis-statement. You responded correctly.

[Munger]

Re: Unemployment by industry: Recession or depression? - Eric Janszen

So let's make unemployed people into slaves. Pay their room and board in exchange for their working. Wasn't that somehow outlawed in all Western countries like 150 years ago, or am I thinking of something else??

They are debt slaves now. Under a public works program they have the choice of starving or building roads. You could call them slaves, I doubt they'd care if they were eating.

It wasn't TRIED last time!!! It was "stimulus" all the way, and the Great Depression resulted! When stimulus WASN'T used, in 1921, the Depression lasted 18 months.

Ideological storytelling. What actually happened?
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/11/10/fiscal-fdr/
http://edgeofthewest.wordpress.com/2...evelts-record/
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/200...eal-economics/

Let me repeat: the problem is LACK of savings, LACK of investment. It isn't lack of CONSUMPTION although it looks that way. When people are saving, they are consuming LESS than they earn. That is GOOD because that investment can be employed in building businesses and creating real wealth.

Correction: lack of saving by people who now cannot afford goods - the people who could not save much anyway. Certain portions of the populace have massive amounts of savings, more than they could spend in 20 lifetimes. Where is that capital and why isn't it being employed? Don't give me the "there is no incentive to invest" argument - they can't spend all the money they have. Lowering the interest rates to zero and increasing inflation is more incentive to not stick it under your pillow.

They don't like the returns they might get in the market - because a large percentage of the population has no money with which to purchase goods.

[metalman]

Re: Unemployment by industry: Recession or depression? - Eric Janszen

mind if i butt in?

They are debt slaves now. Under a public works program they have the choice of starving or building roads. You could call them slaves, I doubt they'd care if they were eating.

debt slaves and wage slaves. wage earners have no pricing power at all except in the high tech field. so who's going to clean the sewers and empty the bed pans and how should they live?

Ideological storytelling. What actually happened?
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/11/10/fiscal-fdr/
http://edgeofthewest.wordpress.com/2...evelts-record/
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/200...eal-economics/

there you go again with your facts. go to the von mises site for some well crafted history that has fdr showing up before the depression and causing it. they paint hoover as a rabid anti-capitalist and social reformer. it's really amazing. one might spend a hour on google books to read about what actually happened but then the tortured storyline of the corrupt gov't meddlers vs the wholesome forces of free markets falls apart.

Correction: lack of saving by people who now cannot afford goods - the people who could not save much anyway. Certain portions of the populace have massive amounts of savings, more than they could spend in 20 lifetimes. Where is that capital and why isn't it being employed? Don't give me the "there is no incentive to invest" argument - they can't spend all the money they have. Lowering the interest rates to zero and increasing inflation is more incentive to not stick it under your pillow.

what? you mean after the debt industry sucked ever last dime of monthly cash flow out of middle class families, from the minute they entered college to the day they take out the reverse mortgage on the family homestead to pay off the insurance companies from the expenses they ran up on their deathbed, they don't have any savings net of debts? isn't that the logical conclusion of a credit-based money system? one group collects all the rents and the other group pays them? we can't all be winners, you know. and there's one sure fire way to get those savers spending after you slap on capital controls, natch... inflation, baby! the ultimate creditor's haircut. 'when you can't confiscate, inflate!' is the motto.

They don't like the returns they might get in the market - because a large percentage of the population has no money with which to purchase goods.

oops. ran out of renters.

[charliebrown]

Re: Unemployment by industry: Recession or depression?

Its an easy lesson in economics.

In 1985 I graduated with and engineering degree from the Univ. of Ill. The cost? tuition & fees for 4 years about 10K. I was able to earn 10K working part time during school, So I graduated with no debt.
For 10K I was pretty much guaranteed a job starting at 30K with a bright future. It was a no brainer to go to school. Now U of I is around 20K a year ( according to the letter from my alumni assoc) So I have a 80K bill upon graduation.
In engineering there are no more job guarantees, due to competition overseas. Starting Salaries I understand are 40 - 50k in my field.

Not a slam dunk anymore is it??
What do I tell my son?
Hmm maybe get the education then default.
They can't reposess your brain.
Not the way I was brought up.

Either tuition needs to come down, or salaries go up.
the ROI of a higher education for knowledge workers is eroding rapidly.

[metalman]

Re: Unemployment by industry: Recession or depression?

Its an easy lesson in economics.

In 1985 I graduated with and engineering degree from the Univ. of Ill. The cost? tuition & fees for 4 years about 10K. I was able to earn 10K working part time during school, So I graduated with no debt.
For 10K I was pretty much guaranteed a job starting at 30K with a bright future. It was a no brainer to go to school. Now U of I is around 20K a year ( according to the letter from my alumni assoc) So I have a 80K bill upon graduation.
In engineering there are no more job guarantees, due to competition overseas. Starting Salaries I understand are 40 - 50k in my field.

Not a slam dunk anymore is it??
What do I tell my son?
Hmm maybe get the education then default.
They can't reposess your brain.
Not the way I was brought up.

Either tuition needs to come down, or salaries go up.
the ROI of a higher education for knowledge workers is eroding rapidly.

right, and who is benefiting from this arrangement?