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No Time for Utopian Anti-Interventionism

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  • Re: No Time for Utopian Anti-Interventionism

    This is worth the listen or read...gets to the heart of the debate here.

    http://www.democracynow.org/2008/10/...res_to_vote_on

    WILLIAM GREIDER: I think the government needs, right now—I don’t think they’re going to go that way just yet, but I think ultimately they may have to—step up, exercise its full powers in emergency, and literally take control of the banking system and the financial system and supervise it as it deals with the realities of firms that will not survive and those that can survive; husband, if solvent, banks and make sure they stay solvent instead of tipping over; and then use that power to guide economic policy for the country, that is, make sure those financial institutions are lending and keeping the credit spigots open for businesses, for families, for all of the uses that go on in our society; and then add the stimulus alongside it, and I mean major stimulus, to encourage all of those players.

    Here’s what happens in a situation like this, at least historically, and I think it’s beginning to happen now. Everybody, quite reasonably, hunkers down. That’s a rational decision: I know we’re in trouble, I know the system is crumbling, I’m going to put my money under the mattress, so to speak, and wait this out. So, that means people stop spending, and they stop borrowing and can’t borrow, and bankers, likewise, stop lending. The government is the only player with the power to step in and reverse that dynamic. That is what the federal government should be doing forcefully right now...

    What Paulson is doing is—the bankers got stuck with all these rotten assets, which they created and sold to each other and to the world; now let’s take those off their hands, and they’ll be OK again. I’m not alone in saying that that’s a real crapshoot as to whether that works, first of all, because those banks, as I said, are going to get smaller, and they’re collapsed, and they may or may not start lending again. I would guess not, not until they see a vibrant economy again.

    But it’s also—and this is where the public stepped up—it’s profoundly illegitimate as an act of democracy to take the money from taxpayers and say to the villains in this story, “Here, here. Can we help you out of your troubles?” No rules, no guarantees that these villains will correct their behavior, no really serious effort to write into this legislation a sense of where the system goes from here that’s honest.

    Comment


    • Re: No Time for Utopian Anti-Interventionism

      FYI

      Dean Baker at CEPR disagrees with you


      Dean Baker

      Posted September 30, 2008 | 11:53 PM (EST)

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      That's easy. You ask them how failure to pass the bailout will give us a Great Depression.
      The odds are that your favorite DC intellectual type has uttered some dire warning like that. After all, they all heard some authority like President Bush or a highly respected news reporter make such a claim. All right-thinking people know that we just have to give $700 billion to the Wall Street crew or the economy will collapse.
      While all right-thinking people might know we need the bailout, just about all right-thinking people don't have a clue as to what they are talking about.
      The Great Depression story is of course the most extreme case. No one has yet sketched out the sequence of events that will give us ten years of double-digit unemployment. But hey, if the scare story helps get the bailout passed -- and gets those uneducated skeptics in the hinterlands to buy it -- why not talk about the Great Depression?
      I was on a talk show today in which one of the other guests (a representative of the security industry trade group) told listeners that you can't get a mortgage unless you put 30-40 percent down. This is of course total garbage (the interest rate on 30-year fixed rate mortgages is a very low 6.0 percent) and the vast majority of loans are being made with 10-20 percent down, but lying for Wall Street is no sin.
      The host of the show was appalled to find that neither I, nor the other in-studio guest, supported the bailout. At one point he became exasperated and told me that because companies can't get access to credit they might have to lay off workers. He told me that United and GM may have to begin laying off workers next month if the credit squeeze doesn't ease.
      Of course if United and GM actually do lay off workers, the credit squeeze will be a very small part of the story. The airline and auto industry face really big problems for reasons that have nothing to do with the credit squeeze, although paying higher interest rates on borrowing clearly does not help.
      It is remarkable how the contemptuous comments that the elites have directed at the masses for opposing the bailout can be so much more accurately directed back at themselves. In fear and anger they have embraced a bailout that makes little sense in the context of the economic crisis facing the country. Rather than listening people who actually understand the economy (I doubt a single economist in the country believes that the bailout is the best way to help the economy) they have shouted down and shut out critics of the bailout and have been willing to spread all manner of outlandish scare stories to advance their case.
      It was impressive to see the mass outrage over the bailout at least temporarily stop the bill. But, the full court press by Wall Street, the media and the entire political establishment is hard to counter. If the bill is not stopped, those who vote for it should at least be held accountable for the economic mess they create. Remember, these are the folks that couldn't see the housing bubble.

      Comment


      • Re: No Time for Utopian Anti-Interventionism

        See also - Nouriel Roubini on Hardtalk

        Comment


        • Re: No Time for Utopian Anti-Interventionism

          Originally posted by EJ View Post
          It is necessary to create a new system parallel with the existing dysfunctional system in order to mitigate the inevitable economic and financial damage and to facilitate, as seamless as possible, the transition to a functioning financial system or new model of credit and banking.
          The credit system is broken, but at the same time people are more dependent on credit than ever with the recession and lending standards have been tightened.

          The Globe article that you cited pointed to tighter lending standards, not a broken credit system and you're right that is typical from newspapers all around the country right now. I see a big fleecing going on with this Paulson plan as the politicians and the MSM commentary are telling people that credit standards can be loosened again if we just agree to their plan.

          Comment


          • Re: No Time for Utopian Anti-Interventionism

            Originally posted by babbitd
            The Globe article that you cited pointed to tighter lending standards, not a broken credit system and you're right that is typical from newspapers all around the country right now. I see a big fleecing going on with this Paulson plan as the politicians and the MSM commentary are telling people that credit standards can be loosened again if we just agree to their plan.
            I wrote this email today, apologize for the "spam killing" spellings etc.:

            In October 1929, the stock market crashed. Fortunately,
            President Herbert Hoover was ready! He had already
            presented the Hoover Plan for "permanent prosperity".

            Hoover injected a phenomenal amount of money into
            the economy via the Federal Reserve -- a 10 percent
            increase in cash deposits on one week!

            The interest rates that the Fed applies to its
            member banks dropped to 2 percent.

            Bank reserves continued to increase through 1930.

            Since stock prices were falling, Hoover forbade
            short selling of stocks. Short selling has been
            made illegal today for many stocks too. The idea
            is that short sellers make clams when stocks
            fall, so if you ban short selling you won't have
            stocks fall.

            Stocks continued to fall in 1930.

            And Hoover pushed through the National Credit
            Corporatino (NCC) to invest 500 millyun into
            shaky banks.

            Congress passed into law the Reconstruction Finance
            Corporation in early 1932, empowered to issue
            1.5 billyun in debt.

            Unlike today, that was a lot of clams then!

            The RFC could lend clams to commercial banks to
            tide them over and to large corporations such as
            the railroads.

            Meanwhile, peeps were losing their houses and
            farms at a record rate.

            In a few months time, the RFC lent out 1 billyun
            clams, all under great secrecy, to a variety of
            favored businesses, especially big railroads.

            Unfortunately, all this cash flying around didn't
            do much good for the economy.

            Banks were not in a mood to lend and Americans
            started dealing more and more in cold hard
            ca_sh rather than cr_dit.

            You see, those bad citizens had withdrawn
            800 millyun in currency. Hoover railed against
            the average American and blamed them for
            "hoarding" clams.

            Hoarding isn't a bad idea even today.

            Point being: the erroneous conclusions of Bernanke and company, that the Fed did not do enough, and that the US government did not do enough, to forestall the Great Depression.

            The government did a LOT. In fact, what they did resembles, quite eerily, what they are doing now. And it did not do any good.

            It did harm.

            Why didn't it do good? Because banks didn't want to lend and people didn't want to borrow. Mish is right in this one.

            Japan pursued a reckless "rescue" fiscal policy post-1990. The US did post-1929. In both cases, as will happen today, the effect was the opposite to that intended, and served to prolong the depression or recession.

            Comment


            • Re: No Time for Utopian Anti-Interventionism

              It is certainly interesting to see how some people throw their principles under the bus in times of crisis.

              Comment


              • Re: No Time for Utopian Anti-Interventionism

                Originally posted by brucec42 View Post
                Is that Karl Marx as your pic? If so, are you sure you're in the right forum?
                Yeah it is, (they didn't have a picture of Ayn Rand, so I chose her antithesis).

                Marx wins if you don't have a gold based monetary systems.

                Rand Wins if you do.

                So both are right or wrong, it depens on the enviornment.

                I hope we will be a great country again, but to do that we will need at least a parallel system with metallic money competing with paper money. I would argue that is the BEST system to pursue at this time, you get the flexibility of FIAT with the ability to opt out and have the security of a Gold/silver based system.

                You need to have both because you will need the unlimited credit potential of the first (to save the economy and fund the next bubble) backstopped with the safety of the second.

                (I'm a little bit socialist, little bit coutry, oops, I mean rugged individualist)
                Last edited by jtabeb; October 02, 2008, 09:16 PM.

                Comment


                • Re: No Time for Utopian Anti-Interventionism

                  Originally posted by nathanhulick View Post
                  It is certainly interesting to see how some people throw their principles under the bus in times of crisis.

                  Funny too, I thought that by holding on to principles you avoid crisis and get them over quickly if they happen.

                  That being said, yeah we need something like the king plan (it keeps the "next bubble" open as a possible policy option, doing nothing removes the "next bubble" as a possiblity completely. And I think that is what EJ is NOT saying.

                  No bailout = NO NEW BUBBLE. That's the sad fact.

                  Comment


                  • Re: No Time for Utopian Anti-Interventionism

                    Originally posted by jtabeb View Post
                    I hope we will be a great country again, but to do that we will need at least a parallel system with metallic money competing with paper money. I would argue that is the BEST system to pursue at this time, you get the flexibility of FIAT with the ability to opt out and have the security of a Gold/silver based system.

                    You need to have both because you will need the unlimited credit potential of the first (to save the economy and fund the next bubble) backstopped with the safety of the second.
                    Not sure about that, but that's off topic. I've opened a new thread on this subject:

                    http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...1642#post51642

                    Comment


                    • Re: No Time for Utopian Anti-Interventionism

                      The unexpected consequences are so far beyond the pale that I won't even try to put it into words.

                      A very painful education is ahead, and many will never get it.
                      http://www.NowAndTheFuture.com

                      Comment


                      • Re: No Time for Utopian Anti-Interventionism

                        Originally posted by raja View Post
                        Without the bailout, the stock market crashes and the retirees and savers lose all or most of their money.

                        With the bailout, big inflation or hyperinflation happens, and the retirees and the savers lose all or most their money. Oh . . . and the stock market probably crashes anyway.

                        The only difference in my mind is that with a bailout, the rich folks get to unload their bad debts at tax-payers expense, so they've got more money to spend on building their fortified compounds and/or offshore villas.

                        I say, if there's going to be pain anyway, let's have the rich folks join in the fun.

                        The only bailout that I would consider acceptable is that one includes punishing those who have profited from making the bad bets that impoverish the savers and retirees.

                        I don't know how that would work . . . . maybe:

                        1) Heavy fines for endangering the savings of retirees' and savers' money. Make the money-men refund their profits in cases where their clients lost money.

                        2) Immediately ban these "financial wizards" from working in the financial or banking industry, and prevent them from doing so in the future.

                        3) Or . . . . we could just deliver these "masters of the universe" up for public execution, like the Chinese do to those who damage society. :eek:
                        Let me disagree with your first statement. They didn't HAVE TO lose most of their money. Retirees and other savers have free choice and have had it for the last few years, far before any "crisis" occured, and could have moved their money out. Even those stuck in 401k's could have gone to cash and avoided the nominal losses. When I was buying gold and oil and agriculture they were still buying US stocks and their icons were mocking those of us who did.

                        Isn't this just the free market at work rewarding those with the right vision (or willingness to listen to those with it) and punishing those who ignored the (pretty obvious) signs? Yes, grandma got carried along for the ride, but ultimately we have to take responsibility for our investments. The true "savers" who don't invest but rely on CD's are the ones who you might claim are screwed (by inflation). The govn't is doing it to them. But stock owners? Easy come, easy go with that.

                        I agree with at least the concept of "punishing" those who misbehaved. Whatever happened to the concept of Fiduciary Duty? Did something change in the laws that encouraged the insane risk taking and lack of prudence? I don't remember hearing about such insanity as a kid. People who got that far in life were assumed to be "grownups".

                        Comment


                        • Re: No Time for Utopian Anti-Interventionism

                          Bart - You are referring to unexpected consequences corrolary to the passing of a bailout, not the rejection of a bailout. What consequences in broad line are you referring to? Maybe just a bullet list?

                          Originally posted by bart View Post
                          The unexpected consequences are so far beyond the pale that I won't even try to put it into words.

                          A very painful education is ahead, and many will never get it.

                          Comment


                          • Re: No Time for Utopian Anti-Interventionism

                            Originally posted by raja View Post
                            Without the bailout, the stock market crashes and the retirees and savers lose all or most of their money.

                            With
                            the bailout, big inflation or hyperinflation happens, and the retirees and the savers lose all or most their money. Oh . . . and the stock market probably crashes anyway.

                            The only difference in my mind is that with a bailout, the rich folks get to unload their bad debts at tax-payers expense, so they've got more money to spend on building their fortified compounds and/or offshore villas.

                            I say, if there's going to be pain anyway, let's have the rich folks join in the fun.

                            The only bailout that I would consider acceptable is that one includes punishing those who have profited from making the bad bets that impoverish the savers and retirees.

                            I don't know how that would work . . . . maybe:

                            1) Heavy fines for endangering the savings of retirees' and savers' money. Make the money-men refund their profits in cases where their clients lost money.

                            2) Immediately ban these "financial wizards" from working in the financial or banking industry, and prevent them from doing so in the future.

                            3) Or . . . . we could just deliver these "masters of the universe" up for public execution, like the Chinese do to those who damage society. :eek:
                            Too bad we are low on tar from peak oil and feathers due to bird flu... otherwise we could right the wrong the old fashion way.

                            Comment


                            • Re: No Time for Utopian Anti-Interventionism

                              Originally posted by Charles Mackay View Post
                              Too bad we are low on tar from peak oil and feathers due to bird flu... otherwise we could right the wrong the old fashion way.
                              The really rich people wont suffer w/o a bailout.

                              Trust me.

                              Comment


                              • Re: No Time for Utopian Anti-Interventionism

                                Originally posted by phirang View Post
                                The really rich people wont suffer w/o a bailout.

                                Trust me.
                                Depends where they have their money... just like it does for all of us on this board.

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