Erratum to``Calculation of a capsizing rate of a ship in stochastic beam seas''

[Guest]

Re: Erratum to``Calculation of a capsizing rate of a ship in stochastic beam seas''

"Many forms of Government have been tried, and will be tried in this world of sin and woe. No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all-wise. Indeed, it has been said that democracy is the worst form of Government except all those other forms that have been tried from time to time."
-- Winston Churchill


"You have enemies? Good. That means you've stood up for something, sometime in your life."
-- Winston Churchill



"Men stumble over the truth from time to time, but most pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing happened."
-- Winston Churchill


"The inherent vice of capitalism is the unequal sharing of the blessings. The inherent blessing of socialism is the equal sharing of misery."
-- Winston Churchill


"You have been given the choice between war and dishonor. You have chosen dishonor, and you will have war."
-- Winston Churchill to the English Parliament, 1938 after the English Parliament's 1938 appeasement in Czechoslovakia

"There is no worse mistake in public leadership than to hold out false hopes soon to be swept away. The British people can face peril or misfortune with fortitude and buoyancy, but they bitterly resent being deceived or finding that those responsible for their affairs are themselves dwelling in a fool's paradise."
-- Winston Churchill

Others attributed indirectly and perhaps just in jest, but I like them anyway:

"Why stand when you can sit?" - from a Seinfeld episode

"So all of you be damned, we can't have heaven crammed" - Musician Graham Parker in "protection"

[bart]

Re: Erratum to``Calculation of a capsizing rate of a ship in stochastic beam seas''

Others attributed indirectly and perhaps just in jest, but I like them anyway:

"Why stand when you can sit?" - from a Seinfeld episode

"So all of you be damned, we can't have heaven crammed" - Musician Graham Parker in "protection"

"If stupidity got us into this mess, then why can't it get us out?"
-- Will Rogers

;)

[sadsack]

Re: Erratum to``Calculation of a capsizing rate of a ship in stochastic beam seas''

From talking with people on the younger side (early twenties), this is the sort of rhetoric I hear:

'Most of us have a high school economic eductation that we don't remember beyond supply and demand. We view buying gold or PMs as paranoid. We haven't been through a general downturn like this before as we were too young to get hit by 87. We've been told that social security will be dead before we see anything from it despite paying in for most of our lives. Many of us have grown up totally priced out of the housing market. For a nearly a quarter of our lives, we've been at war in Iraq - always sanitized. Throw in Waco, Ruby Ridge and a variety of other events you have the seeds of a general anxiety about the government.'

Don't get me wrong - there are plenty of younger people who care about this, who have had tough lives, etc. The position above is more representative of the masses - or at least what I am picking up from peoples positions on message boards, in informal discussions, etc.

Frankly, I really get the sense that a lot of younger people are of the 'fine, let it burn to the ground' position. They don't enough invested in the world to intuitively care what happens to the US. Hyper inflation suggests to them that paying off their debts would be easier - I've talked with at least a few people who were considering purchases they couldn't afford and were banking on hyperinflation. Depressions aren't scary as many believe they would make it through and come out better off once wealth had natrually redistributed over 5 to 10 years. Fuel shortages are still foreign to people; after all, thats why they think we've been fighting in Iraq all this time, right?. As a generation, I feel like not sure when we're going to step up and start taking some degree of ownership.

Perhaps it is a good thing that young aren't close to being the voting majority; politicians catering to their constituents may push an unfortunate direction.

In a situation where all parties will act in their own self interest, how can this play out well? The only people who will be willing to make the decisions the US needs as a country are those for whom reelection isn't an issue and who have advisors pushing the right information there way.

Either that, or the people running the show need to be honest with the public. Uniform and blunt. The sort of honesty that would likely cause hysteria if the people didn't have faith in those delivering the message and the course of action to be taken. Given the lack of bluntness in the previous delivery, that seems like an unlikely course of action at this point.

/end rant

I'm very glad there's at least a few people in your generation thinking about the cold, hard truth of where this country should be heading. Truly I am, because you, and your children, and your children's children, etc. will be paying for the mistakes made by those who came before you.

More than any others in our society, you are unencumbered by small children, etc., and are the most able candidates for wielding those torches and pitchforks . . . remember - time is on your side.

I will do the best on my end to vote out every single incumbent (Ron Paul is not my district rep) in the next election, and the next thereafter, ad infinitum, until I perceive that a viable choice is presented to me.

In the absence of constructive means to reform the system, efforts must shift to complete the collapse of the current corrupt system in as soon a timeframe as is possible . . .

(going back to fortifying my tinfoil hat . . . )

[LabMonkey]

Re: Erratum to``Calculation of a capsizing rate of a ship in stochastic beam seas''

As several of you have pointed out, and from what I've learned in the short amount of time I've been trying to educate myself on this: continuing with the plan in the long term is going to be expensive. Didn't Ben just put in 630 billion on 9/29/08? If that just vaporized, then what is the point of the 700 billion?

[Chris Coles]

Re: Erratum to``Calculation of a capsizing rate of a ship in stochastic beam seas''

EJ,

there is a very great irony about the subject of your post relating to ships capsizing. You see, an ancestor of mine, Captain Cowper Phipps Coles was the European designer of the first warship built in Europe that incorporated rotating turrets for the guns and was the European equivalent of Emerson's American ship of the same genre. The ship was HMS Captain. But what they did not know at the time became the reason for a disastrous capsize of the ship. To permit the rotation of the turrets on a sailing ship, they built a lower deck, close to the sea surface and a flying deck above to permit the crew to work the sails. In a stiff breeze on its maiden voyage, it turned turtle and all but 9 crew were lost.

They had built a ship with a built in design flaw that was perfectly stable right up to the point where the list passed a certain value and then, instantly, it was lost.

There does seem to be a valid comparison here with Congress and while not broaching the subject of ship capsizing, I have put up a new post as an open letter to Congress which you all might like to peruse.

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5560

I have also taken this from Wikipedia

He entered the Royal Navy at the age of eleven. Coles distinguished himself at the siege of Sevastopol during the 1850s in the Crimean War against Russia. It was at this time that he and other British naval officers and sailors constructed a raft named the Lady Nancy which sported a rotating protective turret. After the war, Coles patented his design for a rotating turret.

The Royal Navy began looking at uses for his revolutionary turret design. Several early naval vessels, such as Prince Albert and Royal Sovereign, were constructed or modified and incorporated Coles' designs. He pressed, however, for the British Admiralty to allow him to build a low-freeboard turret warship and in 1866 the Royal Navy finally agreed.

Coles became the lead designer for HMS Captain. The ship used most of Coles' design. However, extensive rigging was necessary to make the ship ocean-going. This forced the creation of a "hurricane deck" above the turrets, which raised the center of gravity of the vessel. This may have been instrumental in Captain's tragic capsize^{[citation needed]} on the night of 6 September 1870. Coles perished in the disaster.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cowper_Phipps_Coles

[Guest]

Re: Erratum to``Calculation of a capsizing rate of a ship in stochastic beam seas''

There seems to be a lot of entrenched reflexive derision percolating under the surface, and sense of righteousness in the air, regarding the advisability of any bailout. Everyone shys away, and feels the scorch of the pariah argument - to "not anywhere be seen" to actively endorse the necessity for an intervention in the same discredited inflationary methodology and by the same discredited banksters who created the disaster".

It may come as a surprise therefore, to note that Jim Sinclair's group has been quite openly endorsing the idea that however abhorrent, the arguments for a propping financial intervention (what is known from an opposing perspective as "throwing good money after bad") have had moments in the past year when they were decidedly valid. I contribute this point to this discussion because there seems far too much complacency in the argument that "any sort of bailout" is a capitulation to the forces of evil".

Jim Sinclair has a serious rep. Anyone who knows this guy's writing knows he is a foremost proponent for "honest money". Well stop and reconsider all of the truisms here, because Monty Guild from Jim Sinclair's group has this to say on the "lost opportunities" which could have brought effective reflationary intervention. There are too many people here who may be approaching this topic far more dogmatically than does Sinclair's own group. And if you know Sinclar, that is an "eye opener".

_________________

FROM JIM SINCLAIR'S WEBSITE:

Dear CIGAs,

Long term success does not depend upon the positive things that happen to you, but on how you handle adversity.
-Common theme in several notable quotes

The weight of the evidence for the global investment markets has swung from a recession with inflation problems, to the high probability of a deep recession or depression that lasts for years.

Governments everywhere have been slow, and some politicians have been unequivocally unwise. Those in the real estate, mortgage banking, insurance and investment communities who started the mortgage and derivative scandal that we have warned of for six years are to blame, and will carry the stigma for the remainder of their lives. Many will go to jail. Let us hope that we can avoid a great depression, but for now the wise course of action is to continue to protect yourselves.

TO PROTECT YOURSELVES

How? In our opinion, you should hold your cash in excess of insured levels in treasury bills, and not money market funds. Hold 10% to 20% gold. Where possible, work to hold assets in private banking institutions where legal documents state that the client assets are not commingled with the assets of the firm or any other depositor.

We believe that this is critical. Some people want access to trade via their computer on a daily basis, but typically the firms that provide cheap trades and instant computer access do not provide legal safeguards against commingling that private banks provide.

A MAJOR REFLATION IS BEING ATTEMPTED BY CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD

The rapid recovery of the banking system that is being sought will probably not develop. Governments did not take rapid action. They stalled, and by stalling and failing to act they may have created an inflation combined with a serious economic downturn.

We have long argued that if it was done in a timely manner it could work. It was not done in a timely manner, then in our opinion the efforts will fail. They did not listen to the people who argued that a reflation and bank bailout was needed a year ago...and now they are too late.

The great depression of the 1930's was aggravated by unwise political moves like the Smoot Hawley tariff, and this time, many lawmakers worldwide still do not get it. They are throwing up roadblocks to the redevelopment of a functioning banking system with their parochial political concerns. This is what the financial markets around the globe are telling investors today as they plummet.

[Chris Coles]

Re: Erratum to``Calculation of a capsizing rate of a ship in stochastic beam seas''

There seems to be a lot of entrenched reflexive derision percolating under the surface, and sense of righteousness in the air, regarding the advisability of any bailout. Everyone shys away, and feels the scorch of the pariah argument - to "not anywhere be seen" to actively endorse the necessity for an intervention in the same discredited inflationary methodology and by the same discredited banksters who created the disaster".

It may come as a surprise therefore, to note that Jim Sinclair's group has been quite openly endorsing the idea that however abhorrent, the arguments for a propping financial intervention (what is known from an opposing perspective as "throwing good money after bad") have had moments in the past year when they were decidedly valid. I contribute this point to this discussion because there seems far too much complacency in the argument that "any sort of bailout" is a capitulation to the forces of evil".

Jim Sinclair has a serious rep. Anyone who knows this guy's writing knows he is a foremost proponent for "honest money". Well stop and reconsider all of the truisms here, because Monty Guild from Jim Sinclair's group has this to say on the "lost opportunities" which could have brought effective reflationary intervention. There are too many people here who may be approaching this topic far more dogmatically than does Sinclair's own group. And if you know Sinclar, that is an "eye opener".

_________________

FROM JIM SINCLAIR'S WEBSITE:

Dear CIGAs,

Long term success does not depend upon the positive things that happen to you, but on how you handle adversity.
-Common theme in several notable quotes

The weight of the evidence for the global investment markets has swung from a recession with inflation problems, to the high probability of a deep recession or depression that lasts for years.

Governments everywhere have been slow, and some politicians have been unequivocally unwise. Those in the real estate, mortgage banking, insurance and investment communities who started the mortgage and derivative scandal that we have warned of for six years are to blame, and will carry the stigma for the remainder of their lives. Many will go to jail. Let us hope that we can avoid a great depression, but for now the wise course of action is to continue to protect yourselves.

TO PROTECT YOURSELVES

How? In our opinion, you should hold your cash in excess of insured levels in treasury bills, and not money market funds. Hold 10% to 20% gold. Where possible, work to hold assets in private banking institutions where legal documents state that the client assets are not commingled with the assets of the firm or any other depositor.

We believe that this is critical. Some people want access to trade via their computer on a daily basis, but typically the firms that provide cheap trades and instant computer access do not provide legal safeguards against commingling that private banks provide.

A MAJOR REFLATION IS BEING ATTEMPTED BY CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD

The rapid recovery of the banking system that is being sought will probably not develop. Governments did not take rapid action. They stalled, and by stalling and failing to act they may have created an inflation combined with a serious economic downturn.

We have long argued that if it was done in a timely manner it could work. It was not done in a timely manner, then in our opinion the efforts will fail. They did not listen to the people who argued that a reflation and bank bailout was needed a year ago...and now they are too late.

The great depression of the 1930's was aggravated by unwise political moves like the Smoot Hawley tariff, and this time, many lawmakers worldwide still do not get it. They are throwing up roadblocks to the redevelopment of a functioning banking system with their parochial political concerns. This is what the financial markets around the globe are telling investors today as they plummet.

I have to completely agree with you up to a point, the point being that the entire financial system has an inbuilt flaw that has precipitated an automatic collapse. A point I have made in my post this morning and to which I refer in the post immediately before yours.

[flintlock]

Re: Erratum to``Calculation of a capsizing rate of a ship in stochastic beam seas''

"You can always count on Americans to do the right thing—after they’ve tried everything else"

-Winston Churchill

[bart]

Re: Erratum to``Calculation of a capsizing rate of a ship in stochastic beam seas''

Stopping a Financial Crisis, the Swedish Way


http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/23/bu...prod=permalink


The area of moral hazard can not be ignored.

[Charles Mackay]

Re: Erratum to``Calculation of a capsizing rate of a ship in stochastic beam seas''

Lew Rockwell had a great piece on what a revolutionary act it was to defeat the F.I.R.E. economy elites.

It was a revolutionary act in the best sense of that term.
The entire establishment was united in favor of what was surely the most horrible and outrageous bill to ever come before Congress. The Fed, the Treasury, leadership of the Democrats and Republicans, the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times, all the major think tanks, most talking heads, the wealthiest corporations, important academics – in short, the whole of the power elite – were united in favor of this awful thing that proposed the following: Americans were to be stripped of their earnings and their future to prop up failed enterprises.

Forget back-door socialism: this was right through the front door. The consequences would have been dreadful and very scary. It was to be the first of many bailouts, since of course it cannot and would not work. Bad debts can't be made good by legislation. This means that more money would be necessary, as the middle class was sucked dry by the vampire state for years to come. Deeper and deeper economic depression – a repeat of the 30s – was certain. Best to put a stop to this now.



http://news.goldseek.com/LewRockwell/1222786440.php

[ocelotl]

Re: Erratum to``Calculation of a capsizing rate of a ship in stochastic beam seas''

Stopping a Financial Crisis, the Swedish Way


http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/23/bu...prod=permalink


The area of moral hazard can not be ignored.

...And also there is the Mexican Way...

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2008/...ap5480120.html

A bailout can work, but has to be carefully planned.

[Supercilious]

Re: Erratum to``Calculation of a capsizing rate of a ship in stochastic beam seas''

As several of you have pointed out, and from what I've learned in the short amount of time I've been trying to educate myself on this: continuing with the plan in the long term is going to be expensive. Didn't Ben just put in 630 billion on 9/29/08? If that just vaporized, then what is the point of the 700 billion?

One answer is here:
http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5562

[krakknisse]

Re: Erratum to``Calculation of a capsizing rate of a ship in stochastic beam seas''

Seems EJ forgot the original reference:
'Erratum to “Calculation of a capsizing rate of a ship in stochastic beam seas” Ocean Engineering 33 (2006) 425–438.'
;)
http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retri...29801806000643