People are sentimental, markets are not

[ocelotl]

Re: People are sentimental, markets are not

This correction is also hitting me a lot, still, measured in USD, it is as if my profits so far into the year have given me the as a gift all the physical silver I've bought.

Measured as it is valued, in MXN, my profits so far into the year have been erased by this correction, but as my father and me agreed upon last night, the good point of physical PM's is that they are there, and not just recicled electrons or bits of cotton paper or plastic. Also, this week I got nearly 700 USD on PM's (I prefer the ones at my signature and Hidalgos), to reduce my average buying price, feel a bit overbought, but still can sleep well at night.

[Charles Mackay]

Re: People are sentimental, markets are not

There is a time in every bull market where small cocky leveraged players enter the market cautiously, and then just shortly thereafter (with rapidly increasing prices) add to their positions incautiously. Anyone here trade gold in 1974? There was a eureka moment that year when leveraged players entered the market and thought it was a no risk situation. All that "moron leverage" had to be eliminated before the 8x move that followed could take place.

Anyone trade "spews" in 1987? Same situation. This is normal and happens prior to the real bull market.

I've posted many of my charts here on iTulip and the one that is still a glaring buy on gold is the gold/oil ratio... It hit an all time low of 6.5 last month. That's the lowest ratio ever... gold is very very cheap.

[Andreuccio]

Re: People are sentimental, markets are not

I've posted many of my charts here on iTulip and the one that is still a glaring buy on gold is the gold/oil ratio... It hit an all time low of 6.5 last month. That's the lowest ratio ever... gold is very very cheap.

Hence Soros shorting oil and going long gold.

Do you have a link to that chart? (Updated version would be great, if possible.)

Thanks.

[Charles Mackay]

Re: People are sentimental, markets are not

Hence Soros shorting oil and going long gold.

Do you have a link to that chart? (Updated version would be great, if possible.)

Thanks.

I'd be happy to Andreuccio. At the moment I'm in Netarts Bay getting away from the heat (probably the last heat wave we'll have this year on the west coast) .. will post a ratio chart with the latest data as soon as I get back to the "mainframe" ..

[Andreuccio]

Re: People are sentimental, markets are not

I'd be happy to Andreuccio. At the moment I'm in Netarts Bay getting away from the heat (probably the last heat wave we'll have this year on the west coast) .. will post a ratio chart with the latest data as soon as I get back to the "mainframe" ..

Thanks. Enjoy the Bay. My sister's in Portland. Love it up there. I'd move in a heartbeat if I could duplicate my employment situation.

[metalman]

Re: People are sentimental, markets are not

miraculously, said shit brick remains in oven...



if $780 holds i'm wondering... wtf?

[jk]

Re: People are sentimental, markets are not

in 76 gold went from 200 to 100, on the way to 800. that implies we could see about 510. ready for that?

[phirang]

Re: People are sentimental, markets are not

in 76 gold went from 200 to 100, on the way to 800. that implies we could see about 510. ready for that?

I own more gold equities than bullion, and the equities are pricing in 600 gold already, and so bring the pain!

[sadsack]

Re: People are sentimental, markets are not

It's a selloff - CEF was trading at a sub-4% premium to NAV yesterday (although it's back above 8% at the close of trading today).

I hope JN noticed . . .

[santafe2]

Re: People are sentimental, markets are not

I've posted many of my charts here on iTulip and the one that is still a glaring buy on gold is the gold/oil ratio... It hit an all time low of 6.5 last month. That's the lowest ratio ever... gold is very very cheap.

I have a version of this chart that I reference occasionally. Mine only goes back to 1990. It would be interesting to see one going back to 1970. I've noticed a coincidence of these lows with recessions. In 3 of 4 cases, they presaged the arrival of bad economic conditions. Of course, 2005 is not explained by this.

Although I am currently buying, I'm not convinced the gold/oil ratio is telling us that gold is a screaming buy. It may be telling us that oil is becoming a more rare resource. It would not surprise me to see this ratio move below 5:1 in the next 10 years even as gold moves up.

gold-oil.jpg

[Jay]

Re: People are sentimental, markets are not

Well I'm one of the young one's here, in my 30's, and have never felt swings like this before, so I just want to say thanks as you all reafirm my willingness to sit tight. Never had 100k plus swings before. Wow, what an interesting study into my own psyche. I'm finding I'm learning more about myself than the economy; fascinating these markets, and not for the timid. I think that no matter what happens this ride is going to be good for me.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: People are sentimental, markets are not

Well I'm one of the young one's here, in my 30's, and have never felt swings like this before, so I just want to say thanks as you all reafirm my willingness to sit tight. Never had 100k plus swings before. Wow, what an interesting study into my own psyche. I'm finding I'm learning more about myself than the economy; fascinating these markets, and not for the timid. I think that no matter what happens this ride is going to be good for me.

Tell me you wouldn't be happier if you had the 100K that has disappeared during the "swing." If I had lost 100K I would consider it to have been a spanking, and I sure would not thank anyone who might have influenced me to take it. I once lost 950+K sitting tight, and I surely would not suggest such a lesson is anything anyone should wish or needs to experience.

Here's one dude's opinion:

Julian Jessop of Capital Economics, who argued that gold could hit $650, said: "The bull market in gold is now over. Gold prices had been driven higher by financial market turbulence, record highs for oil and other commodity prices, increased global inflation fears, rising geopolitical risks and a weaker dollar. The worst case scenarios of a complete meltdown in the financial sector, $200 oil, a return to 1970s-style inflation and a dollar collapse are all much less likely now."

[metalman]

Re: People are sentimental, markets are not

Tell me you wouldn't be happier if you had the 100K that has disappeared during the "swing." If I had lost 100K I would consider it to have been a spanking, and I sure would not thank anyone who might have influenced me to take it. I once lost 950+K sitting tight, and I surely would not suggest such a lesson is anything anyone should wish or needs to experience.

Here's one dude's opinion:

because you rode the dot com BUBBLE down, jim. the long decline of the dollar is not a bubble. there is no gold bull... there is only the bonar.
your destiny is to never learn the difference, i reckon. we took a poll here... someplace... and a lot of folks did bail out in march with the 'small trade' call. no doubt that guy who says the gold bull is over will shut gold goes back up again but will come out of his hidey hole every it goes down and no one will call him on it.

oh, happy birthday

[Guest]

Re: People are sentimental, markets are not

Yeah but it doesn't help to have JK creeping us out with those spooky calls for a 50% correction like in the mid 1970's. Nobody rattles me here like JK when he hauls out that bogey-man in a dark cloak. Thanks JK! Much obliged! (as I reach for my Maalox and horse-tranquilizers).

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: People are sentimental, markets are not

because you rode the dot com BUBBLE down, jim. the long decline of the dollar is not a bubble. there is no gold bull... there is only the bonar.
your destiny is to never learn the difference, i reckon. we took a poll here... someplace... and a lot of folks did bail out in march with the 'small trade' call. no doubt that guy who says the gold bull is over will shut gold goes back up again but will come out of his hidey hole every it goes down and no one will call him on it.

oh, happy birthday

Thanks for the wish. metalman, I don't give a hoot whether a move is a bubble or not. What I do care about is making and hopefully booking profits. There is always something going up if one wishes to play the long side and vice versa. It's unfortunate that we don't start life wise and get more ignorant with time, or is the fact we start life ignornant and end up the same? I'm continuing to gain insight into these mysteries.

At any rate, if someone's influence resulted or aided in my sitting again through a 100K or more loss, I surely would not be thanking them. People in my opinion should learn to use stop losses, and that is not a sure path to riches either. On the 15JUL I was long a bunch of +200% ETF's and was stopped out and immediately the market reversed. Fortunately after incurring only 5K of losses I got back in several hours later and rode it up to near the highs earlier this week. Pure luck I chose to get back in.

Having had the experience I had, I suggest it is worth while when entering postions to decide how much one is willing to lose and if that is hit, get out.

I am still waiting to see that picture or you shitting a brick. I expect if gold goes to 650, it will be one helluva brick. My guess is the decline will stop short of 700, but that is purely a guess, and if close should still result in a decent brick.