Housing Bubble Correction Update: Here comes the jobs crash (Part I)

[BadJuju]

Re: Housing Bubble Correction Update: Here comes the jobs crash (Part I)

I do not know why anyone thought the housing bubble was a good thing. :mad: Having to pay 300-500k for a small home is just insane! You should be able to afford a decent house (at least a few hundred sq ft) in a decent neighborhood with even a small wage.

[LargoWinch]

Re: Housing Bubble Correction Update: Here comes the jobs crash (Part I)

I do not know why anyone thought the housing bubble was a good thing. :mad: Having to pay 300-500k for a small home is just insane! You should be able to afford a decent house (at least a few hundred sq ft) in a decent neighborhood with even a small wage.

People with Real Estate exposure sure liked it; the "most often than not" leveraged position made them appear rich.

The savers and renters were suckers.

Now that the tide is reversing the Real Estate owners are crying foul and won't honor their commitment. Did I say moral hazard?

Of course lower prices are better, but this does not help the banks and the governments, the speculators were just a by product.

[BadJuju]

Re: Housing Bubble Correction Update: Here comes the jobs crash (Part I)

People with Real Estate exposure sure liked it; the "most often than not" leveraged position made them appear rich.

The savers and renters were suckers.

Now that the tide is reversing the Real Estate owners are crying foul and won't honor their commitment. Did I say moral hazard?

Of course lower prices are better, but this does not help the banks and the governments, the speculators were just a by product.

Screw 'em! A house should simply be that, not some instrument of obtaining wealth.

[FRED]

Re: Housing Bubble Correction Update: Here comes the jobs crash (Part I)

No wonder Congress extended job benefits again today.

[Down Under]

Re: Housing Bubble Correction Update: Here comes the jobs crash (Part I)

No wonder Congress extended job benefits again today.

What a disaster.

[goadam1]

Re: Housing Bubble Correction Update: Here comes the jobs crash (Part I)

Screw 'em! A house should simply be that, not some instrument of obtaining wealth.

Working and saving and investing is a fools game. Borrowing millions beyond your means is an investment in the future and a get quick rich scheme.

[goadam1]

Re: Housing Bubble Correction Update: Here comes the jobs crash (Part I)

No wonder Congress extended job benefits again today.

I'm still holding you to your 20% prediction. I'll give you till 2014 and call it even. One more cycle.

[Chris Coles]

Re: Housing Bubble Correction Update: Here comes the jobs crash (Part I)

Working and saving and investing is a fools game. Borrowing millions beyond your means is an investment in the future and a get quick rich scheme.

That will depend upon from which direction you take your viewpoint. If you see yourself as a single individual with no responsibilities towards anyone in your local community, then you are perhaps correct

But if you see your own good fortune as a responsibility to do what you can to help the rest of your local community to prosper and follow you as their leader to better times, then you are absolutely wrong.

What you have not noticed is that it is not only the investments that change, it is also the underlying philosophy. Humanity has prospered in the distant past by combining their efforts to the good of everyone. What we have at the moment is a devil take the hindmost attitude; that signally, has not succeeded and as a consequence, has to also change. You will find yourself out of step with the next phase of successful investment if you remain locked into the past paradigm.

You see, the FIRE economic model can only succeed for a relatively short period, which comes to an end when the hidden prosperity of the majority runs out, as is happening right in front of all of us. It is the same reason why any feudal model essentially fails every time. You end up with the majority so poor, they have no market power and all you can do is sit in your ivory tower and look out on an economic wasteland.

Prosperity is much more than money in the bank; it is being able to hold your head up in our local community and look around you at a local community that also has been able to see the value of what you have provided by leadership and investment.

Pity the man that sits on a pile of gold and all he can see is the starving poor surrounding him.

[LargoWinch]

Re: Housing Bubble Correction Update: Here comes the jobs crash (Part I)

I'm still holding you to your 20% prediction. I'll give you till 2014 and call it even. One more cycle.

goadam1, FRED is kind enough to share is research with us and he is not "accountable to anyone". As they say: take it or leave it.

On the flip side no one is perfect - just that some people are better than other at different things, so if you feel you can provide better insight on a topic, then by all means! That is the point of the community.

[goadam1]

Re: Housing Bubble Correction Update: Here comes the jobs crash (Part I)

goadam1, FRED is kind enough to share is research with us and he is not "accountable to anyone". As they say: take it or leave it.

On the flip side no one is perfect - just that some people are better than other at different things, so if you feel you can provide better insight on a topic, then by all means! That is the point of the community.

tone is hard to get out in a posting. I was joshing. Who can predict. We extrapolate and speculate. We interpret. Great ideas here. But to say we all should admit where we didn't get the timing of the deflation and reflation cycle right. Otherwise, we are as blind as everyone else.

[we_are_toast]

Re: Housing Bubble Correction Update: Here comes the jobs crash (Part I)

What a disaster.

What an opportunity!

The Economic and Political timing is right for the administration to propose a massive government green jobs program. Something very much on the order of FDR's CCC. The cost of putting unemployed people to work on putting solar panels on government and other buildings, retrofitting buildings for higher energy efficiency, and Research in ALT-E technologies is not much higher than paying them to sit home.

The Politics is right in that the party in power knows it's in trouble if it doesn't lower the unemployment rate or at least have a plan to do so. The government jobs might be a stretch for the Obama Admin, but I think there's a good chance that Stimulus II will be very much directed toward green and infrastructure (unfortunately) jobs. It'll be hard for the Repubs to vote against a jobs program with unemployment this high and the Dems know they have to do something.

Let the games begin!

[Rajiv]

Re: Housing Bubble Correction Update: Here comes the jobs crash (Part I)

Actually If you look at the ShadowStat numbers, we are already there

[LargoWinch]

Re: Housing Bubble Correction Update: Here comes the jobs crash (Part I)

tone is hard to get out in a posting.

Agreed. You simply forgot to use one of those: ;) :p

Next time!

[we_are_toast]

Re: Housing Bubble Correction Update: Here comes the jobs crash (Part I)

What an opportunity!

The Economic and Political timing is right for the administration to propose a massive government green jobs program. Something very much on the order of FDR's CCC. The cost of putting unemployed people to work on putting solar panels on government and other buildings, retrofitting buildings for higher energy efficiency, and Research in ALT-E technologies is not much higher than paying them to sit home.

The Politics is right in that the party in power knows it's in trouble if it doesn't lower the unemployment rate or at least have a plan to do so. The government jobs might be a stretch for the Obama Admin, but I think there's a good chance that Stimulus II will be very much directed toward green and infrastructure (unfortunately) jobs. It'll be hard for the Repubs to vote against a jobs program with unemployment this high and the Dems know they have to do something.

Let the games begin!

The jobs Stimulus II ship is leaving the dock.

Senator Reid tees up 2010 jobs bill


By Walter Alarkon - 11/11/09 06:00 AM ET
Senate Democrats will take up a new job-creation bill in the wake of the 10.2 percent unemployment rate, Majority Leader Harry Reid told his colleagues Tuesday.
Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.) told The Hill that Reid (D-Nev.) made the announcement about a new jobs bill at the Senate Democrats’ weekly lunch.

Reid said he was looking at an initiative focused on job creation “and that our caucus will take it up,” Cardin said.

http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/6...2010-jobs-bill

Obama to focus on job creation

He will hold a White House summit next month and says he's open to 'any demonstrably good idea.'


Reporting from Washington - President Obama will convene a White House summit early next month to explore ways to reverse the soaring unemployment rate -- and there won't be any shortage of ideas.

Economists and lawmakers hope that such proposals as tax breaks for companies that add workers, tax cuts for small businesses and more government highway construction will get renewed attention after Obama's call Thursday for new ways to reverse job losses.

But the administration and its allies in Congress are facing another shortage -- time.

Economic and political concerns are rising after the unemployment rate hit 10.2% last month, reaching double digits for the first time in 26 years. With congressional midterm elections looming next year and thousands more jobs being lost each week, Washington must act quickly to get new programs in place.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-f...,1759115.story

CalculatedRisk makes the good point that this will be another boost to GDP next year. iTulip anticipated a serious of bounces as the government introduced these programs, but we seem to be getting one extended bounce and I'm wondering if this will extend the bounce even further.

If the new Stimulus is a lot like the old Stimulus, with tax breaks and highway construction, rather than an effort to move from fossil fuels to Alt-E, it'll mean when this elongated bounce is over, it's really going to hurt.