The Fed: Dishonest or Incompetent?

[jk]

Re: The Fed: Dishonest or Incompetent?

China's, Japan's, Russia's and Middle Eastern central banks may allign against the US, for example, with a few others, such as Australia's, caught in the cross-fire......

Orderly, dollar depreciation as occured 2001 - 2005 was the result of coordinated global central banking.

with the rise in oil prices china and japan have smaller annual net reserve accumulations to direct our way, while russia and middle eastern energy exporters, and of course venezuela, are not necessarily interested in making things easy for the u.s.

even friendly middle eastern countries are trying to tiptoe out of the dollar. witness monday's news story re the u.a.e.:
"The United Arab Emirates, the second-largest Arab economy, signalled on Monday that it might cut its holdings of dollars by almost half, highlighting a recent trend of reserve diversification away from the US currency."

so many are tiptoeing away, if just one tries to make a break for it, really getting out of dollars, it might create a disorderly, waterfall dollar decline and a huge move up in precious metals. just speculating here.

[EJ]

Re: The Fed: Dishonest or Incompetent?

Ka-Poom hinges on China/US. China has been building an trade/ energy/resource block with Russia, Iran (and other middle eastern countries), and Venezuela for years. Venezuela is strategic because of its influence over the rest of LatAm. The most significant recent change in this direction is growing cooperation between Japan and China. You wouldn't know it from reading english language press, which stresses unfinished business (Rape of Nanking, etc.) but my wife reads the Chinese papers in Chinese, and the story is very different. It's like a Chinese menu at the restaurant, if you've ever wondered: not only are the items different, so are the prices for the same items on the English menu–they're cheaper in Chinese. As Dave Barry would say, I'm not making this up.

Not only are various CBs tip-toeing, as you say, away from the dollar, some are forming alliances. China's made some not very subtle comments in Australia's direction, nearly as bellicose as its Taiwan rhetoric, and it will be interesting to see which way Australia chooses to go when the time comes.

So far, commentary on this subject typically has two items on the menu:

"Disorderly decline" = "Last CB out is a rotten egg."
"Orderly decline" = "We CBs must hang together or hang separately."

But there is a 3rd:

"Period X" (which I haven't said much about yet) = "Asia/EU-centric global central banking regime."

[bart]

Re: The Fed: Dishonest or Incompetent?

It's like a Chinese menu at the restaurant, if you've ever wondered: not only are the items different, so are the prices for the same items on the English menu–they're cheaper in Chinese. As Dave Barry would say, I'm not making this up.

That has been happening in the LA area for a few years now, and probably for far longer. A friend's wife is a native Taiwanese and oh my... the stories she tells.
One sidelight that I found fascinating - with gold, if its not 24k then they're not interested.

I'm interested to hear about your third scenario with the EU to see how close I'm tracking with you.

[jk]

Re: The Fed: Dishonest or Incompetent?

Ka-Poom hinges on China/US. China has been building an trade/ energy/resource block with Russia, Iran (and other middle eastern countries), and Venezuela for years. Venezuela is strategic because of its influence over the rest of LatAm. The most significant recent change in this direction is growing cooperation between Japan and China.

russia's interests seem more directed toward, on the one hand, exercising increasing control over western europe via manipulating its own role as energy supplier, and on the other hand re-asserting influence in its former dependencies - ukraine, baltics, caucasus. although there have been periodic noises about russian oil being piped to china, it's never happened. i foresee increasing competition between between china and russia for influence with iran, which in turn is growing in its own influence over the whole middle east.

Not only are various CBs tip-toeing, as you say, away from the dollar, some are forming alliances. China's made some not very subtle comments in Australia's direction, nearly as bellicose as its Taiwan rhetoric, and it will be interesting to see which way Australia chooses to go when the time comes.

So far, commentary on this subject typically has two items on the menu:

"Disorderly decline" = "Last CB out is a rotten egg."
"Orderly decline" = "We CBs must hang together or hang separately."

But there is a 3rd:

"Period X" (which I haven't said much about yet) = "Asia/EU-centric global central banking regime."

are you implying orderly coordination between asian cbs and the ecb? it's easier for me to imagine competing regional currency regimes: a euro zone, a dollar zone, a yuan/yen zone. and maybe a ruble zone, come to think of it. do you think a middle east currency will emerge? the famous gold dinar? or will the middle eastern oil exporters just accept any currency, at the right price?

or is the idea that out of such a melange would emerge the need for coordination among the various cbs, with leadership naturally flowing to the euro and yuan/yen players? such a process could take time.

[jtabeb]

Re: The Fed: Dishonest or Incompetent?

russia's interests seem more directed toward, on the one hand, exercising increasing control over western europe via manipulating its own role as energy supplier, and on the other hand re-asserting influence in its former dependencies - ukraine, baltics, caucasus. although there have been periodic noises about russian oil being piped to china, it's never happened. i foresee increasing competition between between china and russia for influence with iran, which in turn is growing in its own influence over the whole middle east.



are you implying orderly coordination between asian cbs and the ecb? it's easier for me to imagine competing regional currency regimes: a euro zone, a dollar zone, a yuan/yen zone. and maybe a ruble zone, come to think of it. do you think a middle east currency will emerge? the famous gold dinar? or will the middle eastern oil exporters just accept any currency, at the right price?

or is the idea that out of such a melange would emerge the need for coordination among the various cbs, with leadership naturally flowing to the euro and yuan/yen players? such a process could take time.

I said it before and I'll say it again, first country/region to the gold standard wins, hands down. It's the chicken and the egg. There won't be one untill there is one, but if there is one, they'd all have to be.

[Spartacus]

Re: The Fed: Dishonest or Incompetent?

JK, I've always had a healthy respect for this kind of story, whether it made me personally queasy or fearful.

Kafka was not writing anything new - just reporting on common experience.

Rube Goldberg did a lot of political pieces, portraying the crushing of the average man by the government machine.

I thought it was a well known fact that if someone (you or a lawyer or a cop) just plain files mistaken paperwork your life can easily become a living hell

Remember all the people put in prison by the "recovered memory" crap? Many are still in jail 15 years after all that stuff was debunked.

Nifong was an exceptional case - a prosecutor brought down by his mis-deeds. Most never are brought down.

Read William L Anderson and Paul Craig Roberts sometime on prosecutorial misconduct and on the US prison population.

Similar stuff happens in Canada.

I could go on - how many people have been freed by Barry Scheck's project?
Remember the blanket amnesty given by the departing Illinois governor for all death row inmates, after several cases were proven to have been set up by the police?

I could go on - I bet you could too.

1. re the internet: with senator ted stevens, famous for his observation that "the internet is not a dump truck; it's a series of tubes," in charge of net neutrality, why worry?

2. i came across references to catherine austin fitts a year or two ago. if you search for her name along with the phrase "enemy of the state" you get, e.g., http://www.ratical.org/co-globalize/CAFmrl.html , and http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0208/S00055.htm , and
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0203/S00066.htm . [the first two are mirrors, and i list both in case one goes down - you never know.] i read her story with fascination and alarm. you don't get e.g. former undersecretaries of housing writing conspiracy theory. [i take that back- i recall that pierre salinger, former white house press secty, got into the idea that a twa flight that exploded was deliberately shot down over long island.] but getting back to fitts' story: it scared me silly. it so threatened my view of the world as a relatively organized, relatively understandable if very complex place in which impersonal processes govern at the highest level, that i put it aside. the alternative was to bring out the tinfoil hat that bart likes to refer to. frankly, it makes me anxious [nervous, not eager] to contemplate reopening my mind to these matters, but i am prepared to do so with a forum such as this in which to discuss it.

put on your tinfoil hats and read what's at those web sites.


[for other articles, see http://www.solari.com/gideon/articles_about.html .]

[Slimprofits]

Re: The Fed: Dishonest or Incompetent?

Fed officials may very well be one, the other, or both, but reading Yellen's speech delivered yesterday and it screams out "incompetence." ------ http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsev...n20140416a.htm

It is a sign of how far the economy has come that a return to full employment is, for the first time since the crisis, in the medium-term outlooks of many forecasters.

second paragraph, lead sentence, shows that Yellen's grasp of reality is tenuous at best. What full employment? Oh you mean the textbook definition of your half-assed measure that ignores the statuses millions of people...Brilliant! I think I can imagine the (boring) party these ******* nerds will throw for each other when "full employment" is achieved. Lots of streamers and cake and conversations about models (econometric, not fashion).

[lektrode]

Re: The Fed: Dishonest or Incompetent?

...grasp of reality is tenuous at best. What full employment?
....can imagine the (boring) party these ******* nerds will throw for each other when "full employment" is achieved. Lots of streamers and cake and conversations about models (econometric, not fashion).

+1
yep - but it would appear - since its on todays wsj.com frontpage - that some 'fashion models' - or at least the bullhorn(s) - are telling us 'something' ?

The Miniskirt Makes a Comeback

[shiny!]

Re: The Fed: Dishonest or Incompetent?

Dunno how it's played out in recent decades, but it used to be that hemlines rose in times of economic hardship and fell in times of prosperity. Cost of fabric was the reason.

Those models are either anorexic or bulemic. Looking at them made me feel sick.

[jk]

Re: The Fed: Dishonest or Incompetent?

Dunno how it's played out in recent decades, but it used to be that hemlines rose in times of economic hardship and fell in times of prosperity. Cost of fabric was the reason.

Those models are either anorexic or bulemic. Looking at them made me feel sick.

i thought hemlines rose and fell with the dow. late '60's- market high, hemlines high; etc. i think the intervening variable is "animal spirits."

[Slimprofits]

Re: The Fed: Dishonest or Incompetent?

Ben "Subprime will be contained" Bernanke has learned nothing! I am becoming convinced that no one in government has a clue as to how things work in the real world. ---- http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...ghtening-.html

In describing the dinner conversation at New York’s Le Bernardin, Einhorn criticized Bernanke for saying he was 100 percent certain there would be no hyperinflation and that it generally occurs after a war. “Not that I think there will be hyperinflation, but how do you get to 100 percent certainty about anything?” Einhorn said. “Why can’t you be 99 percent certain?”

100% certainty! Einhorn is right, it's actually terrifying that people this stunningly ignorant are in positions of great power.

[lektrode]

Re: The Fed: Dishonest or Incompetent?

Ben "Subprime will be contained" Bernanke has learned nothing! I am becoming convinced that no one in government has a clue as to how things work in the real world. ---- http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...ghtening-.html 100% certainty! Einhorn is right, it's actually terrifying that people this stunningly ignorant are in positions of great power.

am also beginning to wonder if it isnt 'something in the water' there inside the beltway - altho all of this was predictable - if only in a sense/POV of the 'monday morning quaterback' - after watching the GD lamestream media spin machine go from ALL BAD NEWS, ALL THE TIME in the runup to the '08 fiasco (election)

to: HAPPY DAZE ARE HERE AGAIN - in spite of 7 trillion (more) pissed away, with the labor participation rate at 30year+ lows

with zip, zilch, NADA to show for it - other than 'critically important social/equality issues' being addressed...

AND STILL WAITING ON THE NOW DELUSIONAL 'pivot to jobs' ???

while the useless as you-know-what-on-a-bull argues over the deck chair layout...