Here come the recession bargains: Used cars coming off lease

[FRED]

Re: Here come the recession bargains: Used cars coming off lease

That's the only thing that worries me about mine. I miss having a garage to park it in.

Who on earth would steal a 1994 Dodge Caravan?:eek::p

Note that these are all common and popular cars = big market for stolen parts.

Here's another list:

* 1. 1989 Toyota Camry
* 2. 1990 Toyota Camry
* 3. 1991 Toyota Camry
* 4. 1988 Toyota Camry
* 5. 1997 Ford F-150 4X2 Pick Up
* 6. 1994 Honda Accord EX
* 7. 1995 Honda Accord EX
* 8. 1996 Honda Accord LX
* 9. 1990 Honda Accord EX
* 10. 1994 Honda Accord LX
* 11. 1994 Chevrolet C1500 Pick Up
* 12. 1992 Honda Accord LX
* 13. 1991 Acura Legend
* 14. 1995 Ford Mustang
* 15. 1987 Toyota Camry
* 16. 1990 Honda Accord LX
* 17. 1995 Honda Accord LX
* 18. 1989 Chevrolet Caprice
* 19. 1988 Honda Accord LX
* 20. 1991 Honda Accord EX
* 21. 1992 Honda Accord EX
* 22. 1995 Dodge Neon
* 23. 1991 Honda Accord LX
* 24. 1989 Honda Accord LX
* 25. 1996 Honda Accord EX

Shows 14 out of 25 are Honda, 15 if you count the Acura.

[GRG55]

Re: Here come the recession bargains: Used cars coming off lease

Note that these are all common and popular cars = big market for stolen parts.

Here's another list:

* 1. 1989 Toyota Camry
* 2. 1990 Toyota Camry
* 3. 1991 Toyota Camry
* 4. 1988 Toyota Camry
* 5. 1997 Ford F-150 4X2 Pick Up
* 6. 1994 Honda Accord EX
* 7. 1995 Honda Accord EX
* 8. 1996 Honda Accord LX
* 9. 1990 Honda Accord EX
* 10. 1994 Honda Accord LX
* 11. 1994 Chevrolet C1500 Pick Up
* 12. 1992 Honda Accord LX
* 13. 1991 Acura Legend
* 14. 1995 Ford Mustang
* 15. 1987 Toyota Camry
* 16. 1990 Honda Accord LX
* 17. 1995 Honda Accord LX
* 18. 1989 Chevrolet Caprice
* 19. 1988 Honda Accord LX
* 20. 1991 Honda Accord EX
* 21. 1992 Honda Accord EX
* 22. 1995 Dodge Neon
* 23. 1991 Honda Accord LX
* 24. 1989 Honda Accord LX
* 25. 1996 Honda Accord EX

Shows 14 out of 25 are Honda, 15 if you count the Acura.

Thinking like a "free-market" economist [is that an oxymoron?] this data would suggest that parts for Honda's must be plentiful what with all these vehicles being chopped, and therefore cheap. Enterprising thieves should therefore be redirecting their efforts to steal and dismantle those vehicles where the parts [and their own margins on effort expended] are worth much more. That logically leads to a coming collapse in the number of Honda's being stolen. Right? :p

[GRG55]

Re: Here come the recession bargains: Used cars coming off lease

2008 Ford Escape XLT 4dr SUV 2008 Ford Escape Hybrid 4dr SUV $4,161 $568 7.3 (years to break even)

Taken from http://www.cnbc.com/id/24500819/

hope this helps.

This is the part that concerns me:

"...This hybrid study assumed the vehicles were sold for the Edmunds.com True Market Value(R) price and will achieve the Environmental Protection Agency's reported mileage for combined city and highway driving..."

For someone who drives mostly on the highway the primary energy consumption is to overcome parasitic drag, which increases as a square of the velocity of the vehicle. Hybrid or no-hybrid, the ultimate source of this energy is the gasoline you pump into the fuel tank. That little gasoline engine in a hybrid is running continuously [that was what the console display was showing in a friend's Prius on a several hour highway cruise we did recently] and working pretty damn hard to overcome the parasitic drag. I seriously doubt that a hybrid driven primarily on the highway will come anywhere near meeting the fuel economy figures touted for it. That is why I don't think there is any payback for drivers in that situation [compared to urban/suburban commute, drive the kids to school and soccer sort of usage where the hybrid is probably more viable, especially those with regenerative braking]

Would be interested in feedback from anyone out there with some real data on this.

[FRED]

Re: Here come the recession bargains: Used cars coming off lease

This is the part that concerns me:

"...This hybrid study assumed the vehicles were sold for the Edmunds.com True Market Value(R) price and will achieve the Environmental Protection Agency's reported mileage for combined city and highway driving..."

For someone who drives mostly on the highway the primary energy consumption is to overcome parasitic drag, which increases as a square of the velocity of the vehicle. Hybrid or no-hybrid, the ultimate source of this energy is the gasoline you pump into the fuel tank. That little gasoline engine in a hybrid is running continuously [that was what the console display was showing in a friend's Prius on a several hour highway cruise we did recently] and working pretty damn hard to overcome the parasitic drag. I seriously doubt that a hybrid driven primarily on the highway will come anywhere near meeting the fuel economy figures touted for it. That is why I don't think there is any payback for drivers in that situation [compared to urban/suburban commute, drive the kids to school and soccer sort of usage where the hybrid is probably more viable, especially those with regenerative braking]

Would be interested in feedback from anyone out there with some real data on this.

From the iTulip research team:

Makes perfect sense and that's what we expected, too. But that's not what our research has found. In fact, the opposite.

Hybrids perform below EPA mileage estimates in city driving

"Data from independent product-testing organization Consumer Reports indicates that hybrid cars get less than 60 percent of EPA estimates while navigating city streets. In Consumer Reports' real-world driving test, the Civic Hybrid averaged 26 mpg in the city, while the Toyota Prius averaged 35 mpg, much less than their respective EPA estimates of 47 and 60 mpg. Hybrid cars performed much closer to EPA estimates in Consumer Reports' highway tests."

Hybrids perform close to EPA mileage estimates of highway mileage

Honda's Civic Hybrid is rated by the EPA to get 47 miles per gallon in the city, and 48 mpg on the highway. After nearly 1,000 miles of mostly city driving, Blackshaw was getting 31.4 mpg.

- Hybrid Mileage Comes Up Short

A Mini Cooper and Toyota Corolla get 40 and 41 MPG respectively. Even if you are a mostly highway driver, with the additional cost of a hybrid the extra six or seven MPG that a hybrid gets on the highway will take a long time to earn back.

Our theory of why this is the case is that the regenerative braking and other means that hybrids use to recover kinetic energy work great on paper but poorly in real world city driving. Perhaps they are not efficient or the added weight of the batteries and energy recovery gear of a hybrid cancels out many of the benefits. The Prius weighs 2932 compared to 2502 for a Corolla; having to haul around the extra 400 plus pounds probably accounts for the lower then expected relative fuel mileage performance.

We believe that hybrid gas mileage is better on the highway because the car is running off the tiny gasoline engine. Once up to highway speed, the amount of energy required to remain at speed is relatively low, so a small engine will do that more efficiently than a large one. Energy needed for passing is delivered by the batteries. (Note: the torque curve of electric motors is the opposite of internal combustion, or IC, engines'; the former deliver maximum torque at zero RPM vs the latter which deliver high torque at high RPM. A pure electric then is a rocket off the line, but a slug in highway passing. The ideal car is electric off the line, IC for passing.)

The other major factor is how the car is driven. A car that gets 30 MPG at 55 MPH will get 25 MPG at 70 MPH. As a general rule, each 5 mph that a car is driven over 55 mph reduces mileage by approximately 5%.

The mileage advantages of hybrids is marginal. Our real beef is not with hybrids but with new cars. More than 50% of the total environmental pollution that a car produces during its life cycle occurs when it is manufactured, although 90% of emissions occur from driving it.

iTulip Bottom line: Prius vs Pious

If you want to say "I'm eco friendly but I'm not poor" buy a heavy new Prius or new hybrid. If you want to reduce pollution, drive a one or two year old basic light Corolla or Civic, standard transmission with a small engine. Slowly.

[GRG55]

Re: Here come the recession bargains: Used cars coming off lease

From the iTulip research team:

Makes perfect sense and that's what we expected, too. But that's not what our research has found. In fact, the opposite.

Hybrids perform below EPA mileage estimates in city driving

"Data from independent product-testing organization Consumer Reports indicates that hybrid cars get less than 60 percent of EPA estimates while navigating city streets. In Consumer Reports' real-world driving test, the Civic Hybrid averaged 26 mpg in the city, while the Toyota Prius averaged 35 mpg, much less than their respective EPA estimates of 47 and 60 mpg. Hybrid cars performed much closer to EPA estimates in Consumer Reports' highway tests."

Hybrids perform close to EPA mileage estimates of highway mileage

Honda's Civic Hybrid is rated by the EPA to get 47 miles per gallon in the city, and 48 mpg on the highway. After nearly 1,000 miles of mostly city driving, Blackshaw was getting 31.4 mpg.

- Hybrid Mileage Comes Up Short

A Mini Cooper and Toyota Corolla get 40 and 41 MPG respectively. Even if you are a mostly highway driver, with the additional cost of a hybrid the extra six or seven MPG that a hybrid gets on the highway will take a long time to earn back.

Our theory of why this is the case is that the regenerative braking and other means that hybrids use to recover kinetic energy work great on paper but poorly in real world city driving. Perhaps they are not efficient or the added weight of the batteries and energy recovery gear of a hybrid cancels out many of the benefits. The Prius weighs 2932 compared to 2502 for a Corolla; having to haul around the extra 400 plus pounds probably accounts for the lower then expected relative fuel mileage performance.

We believe that hybrid gas mileage is better on the highway because the car is running off the tiny gasoline engine. Once up to highway speed, the amount of energy required to remain at speed is relatively low, so a small engine will do that more efficiently than a large one. Energy needed for passing is delivered by the batteries. (Note: the torque curve of electric motors is the opposite of internal combustion, or IC, engines'; the former deliver maximum torque at zero RPM vs the latter which deliver high torque at high RPM. A pure electric then is a rocket off the line, but a slug in highway passing. The ideal car is electric off the line, IC for passing.)

The other major factor is how the car is driven. A car that gets 30 MPG at 55 MPH will get 25 MPG at 70 MPH. As a general rule, each 5 mph that a car is driven over 55 mph reduces mileage by approximately 5%.

The mileage advantages of hybrids is marginal. Our real beef is not with hybrids but with new cars. More than 50% of the total environmental pollution that a car produces during its life cycle occurs when it is manufactured, although 90% of emissions occur from driving it.

iTulip Bottom line: Prius vs Pious

If you want to say "I'm eco friendly but I'm not poor" buy a heavy new Prius or new hybrid. If you want to reduce pollution, drive a one or two year old basic light Corolla or Civic, standard transmission with a small engine. Slowly.

Interesting info. It's well known that the EPA fuel economy figures are rarely met by any vehicle in real-world use, and are most useful for comparision purposes rather than an absolute indication.

I did not see anything in the referenced article specifically about hybrid highway driving economy. Reading between the lines of your comments it seems that the small gasoline engine is an economical solution to overcome the parasitic drag at "reasonable" highway speeds, however neither the little gasoline engine nor the electric motor provide much reserve for passing ("...The ideal car is electric off the line, IC for passing..."). And extended periods of highway driving provides no opportunity for the regenerative braking system to come into play [until you hit that exit ramp].

I said "reasonable" highway speeds as my totally unscientific and brief encounter with the Prius was a 70 mph trip on Highway 2 (flat terrain) between Calgary and Edmonton. That little engine seemed to be pumping pretty hard, but we did not measure the volume of fuel actually used. My impression was the engine was overtaxed at that speed and would do much better at 55 to 60 mph.

Just out of curiosity, it would be interesting to hear from any iTulip hybrid owners who have measured the performance carefully over different driving conditions.

But the iTulip point about buying good used is well taken.

[c1ue]

Re: Here come the recession bargains: Used cars coming off lease

Kudos to the iTulip research team: the function of highway mileage is completely due to relative drag (i.e. slip ratio) and engine size.

Having a large engine means much more wasted gasoline once speed is achieved. This is why there are several 12 cylinder cars composed of 2 - 6cylinder engines; once speed is achieved just turn one engine off.

This approach actually makes lots of sense - the engine control systems and what not are more than sophisticated enough to manage this.

As for mileage figures - I think there is a big loophole that might be getting exploited: charge state of car battery in a hybrid.

Similar to the wheat germ in the dog/cat food scandal, just going into a 'test' with a full battery would yield an apparently high MPG; I really wonder if the EPA actually checks before and after battery states as opposed to just gallons of gasoline used.

Not that the gas only MPG estimates were any good; as any serious highway driver can tell you - drafting behind a large vehicle can double your actual mileage. In the city, you can also improve performance just by understanding the traffic light system and minimizing the actual stops.

The EPA mileage tests were all performed by professionals who understood and used all of these tricks - ranging from minimal brake use to optimal gasoline useage speeds, timing lights, etc etc.

In SF, for example, there are certain streets where the traffic lights are synchronized such that hitting a certain speed will get you nearly all the way across the city without stopping.

[Guest]

Re: Here come the recession bargains: Used cars coming off lease

There is also a scandalous option many Americans forget is available: just don't buy another car.

My wife and I are down to one car. I drive my sneakers to work, and only go shopping on weekends (when I can borrow her car). When we move farther from town, I am going to buy a nice bicycle and a nice raincoat. If we move much farther from town, for an extra $1200 I can get an electric motor for the bike with a 30-40 mile range that costs 3 cents to fill up.

On those rare occasions a second car is needed, friends are always happy to lend us a car in exchange for a favor (nice dinner, fresh loaf of bread, tray of brownies). And if that fails, there is a car rental place nearby, a bus route, a taxi stand, a train station, and the Zipcar program.

The $5000 I did not spend on an "inexpensive" second car will easily pay for a very nice bike with safety lights, and luggage racks (and raingear for me), 10 years of bike maintenance, AND 10 years of car rentals AND 10 years of the occasional public transportation. Over the same period, how much more would the buyer of a $5000 car pay for gas and maintenance? Easily $10,000, for just a local commute...

More than that -- I can't stick to an exercise program if you glue me to it. But I have to get to work every day -- and boy howdy is it nice to walk in the door whistling after exercise while everybody else is spitting nails about crazy drivers and endless traffic.

We almost went that route ourselves a few years back when our schedules permitted. I was gonna drop my wife off at work and then pick her up at the end of my day. But before it came about, the job situation changed and it became impractical.

As for riding a bike to work, you need to compare the cost of a modest car to the cost of major reconstructive cranial surgery and long term disability care after that dually pickup with the large tow mirrors pops you as it drives by. Most places I've been to are simply not optimized or culturally ready for cycle commuters. The stats on cyclists hurt by drivers is appalling. Curiously, the road in front of my house, steep and populated with speeding (50mph+ downhill around a bend) pickups, out in the country, is a mecca for recreational cyclists for some reason. They pedal by constantly. So far none have wound up in a ditch, but on the same stretch there have been two accidents and my mailbox has been accidentially hit and destroyed twice in the 3 years I've lived here. So they're probably not aware how dangerous it is.

A quick survey of how many drivers you can count with a cell phone plastered to their ear as they drift around in a haze should dissuade many from the idea of cycling to work. A fender bender in a car is one thing. On a bike you may be the one getting bent.

[Guest]

Re: Here come the recession bargains: Used cars coming off lease

Very good point about picking a simple, easy to maintain/fix yourself ride. They will break less often on average, and are usually cheaper to buy parts for as well. Unfortunately, some of the easiest to work on are domestic pickups, which are less fuel efficient.

As for saving cash, ultimately the most bang for the buck is acheived by simply not driving as much. I've complained about it before and will now again. My work takes me through the suburbs during work hours, and the streets of bedroom communities are clogged with vehicles that are patently not engaged in commerce (an suv with kids in it pulling into McDonald's at 10am). I have to assume that there aren't so many salespeople and service industry workers out conducting business at 2:30pm on a Wednesday that it requires one to wait in traffic through 3 light cycles to get through an intersection 35 miles north of Atlanta, so I'm making the leap of logic that many of these are purely pleasure/shopping/optional trips.

I'm sure many of them are the gaudily nuevo riche' out doing what they do best (shopping) , but I also hear complaining about gas prices in the news and elsewhere from housewives who live 3 miles from their child's school and most every type of shopping one could imagine, yet also manage to put 12,000 mi a year on their family truckster. My work vehicle doesn't amass that many miles, and I hit 10 different locations a day.

I think if more people sat down and did a mileage budget, they'd see that they or their spouse are burning up a lot of dollars. Even my long retired parents who live 10 miles from anything and less than a mile from 90% of what they need, manage to put 10,000 miles a year on their vehicles.

I think a lot of driving is done out of boredom.

[Guest]

Re: Here come the recession bargains: Used cars coming off lease

Tying into the hyperinflation fears , what about this?

If a new midsize sedan costs $25,000 today, and a comparable sedan will cost say $50,000 in 5 years, due to massive inflation, and presumedly used sedans will also rise proportionally (maybe more, since fewer will be able to afford new?), would buying a new car today with 12 years of good reliable service in it for $25,000 actually be cheaper in real terms than buying a series of escalating-cost used sedans over those 12 years? What if each is good for 4 more years of reliable service but your 3rd one costs $35,000? Remember, your car loan is fixed at 5.75% today. What if when rates better reflect inflation fears, a car loan is 15% in a few years?

I'm not advocating it, but assuming you are going to buy more than a $5,000 type car anyway, perhaps buying a solid car now might pay off in that you are paying off that loan with debased dollars.

Again, I pay cash. But it's interesting to ponder the effect of owning a tangible (though depreciating) asset vs dollars, which may depreciate even faster.

[c1ue]

Re: Here come the recession bargains: Used cars coming off lease

Bruce,

I've heard this argument in multiple forms.

It might work, but first consider the other possibilities:

1) In inflationary times, liquid assets become scarce. Not cash per se, but an amount of money sufficient to purchase something. While spending cash to buy a fixed asset may seem like a good idea now, what value would that same amount of cash used to fix your purchasing power outside of the dollar do for you in the future? Other arguments include: If hyperinflation occurs, wouldn't I be better off buying a gigantic house now since the mortgage would inflate away? A: Jobs go down. Bills/Insurance go up. Demand goes down. Can you afford the gigantic house for the next 15 years or more if necessary? If so, then it could be worthwhile.

2) There are something like 240+ million passenger cars in the US. Cars clearly are not scarce. While in a 10 year span generally cars need to be replaced, in the meantime it could be said there is a glut. If hyperinflation occurs and commodity costs outpace income - just how much demand will there be for cars? Given that there are probably enough already around to meet everyone's needs? Prices may not go up.

3) Maintenance: As demand goes down, maintenance costs also go down after an initial uptick. When times are tough, people discover new skills like changing their own oil.

[phirang]

Re: Here come the recession bargains: Used cars coming off lease

That's the only thing that worries me about mine. I miss having a garage to park it in.

Who on earth would steal a 1994 Dodge Caravan?:eek::p

excellent dead hooker storage

[FRED]

Re: Here come the recession bargains: Used cars coming off lease

excellent dead hooker storage

We try to keep this place a small oasis in a sea of contempt, including for hookers.

[GRG55]

Re: Here come the recession bargains: Used cars coming off lease

...Even my long retired parents who live 10 miles from anything and less than a mile from 90% of what they need, manage to put 10,000 miles a year on their vehicles.

I think a lot of driving is done out of boredom.

Get them a subscription to iTulip. No boredom here. That'll keep 'em off the road and safe in the yard... ;)

[raja]

Re: Here come the recession bargains: Used cars coming off lease

Just out of curiosity, it would be interesting to hear from any iTulip hybrid owners who have measured the performance carefully over different driving conditions.

I've been driving a Prius for two years, with a mix of city and highway driving.
If the onboard efficiency computer is to be believed, I've been getting an overall 45 mpg.

[c1ue]

Re: Here come the recession bargains: Used cars coming off lease

My onboard computer tells me the 1999 1/2 Audi gets 19 MPG city, 25 highway, but in reality (odometer vs. gallons in tank) it is more like 17.3 and 21.8. EPA estimates 17 and 21, but I'm all about the drafting and timing lights.

The 2003 is supposed to be 15 and 19; in reality I'm getting 15.2 and 17.6.

Measure gas vs. miles driven, then factor for state of on board charge.

Over time, the last item can be ignored.