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Gold Update: The small trade within the big trade

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  • Gold Update: The small trade within the big trade

    Gold Update: The small trade within the big trade

    We remain long gold as we have since August 2001. Recent price action compels us to remind readers that the precious metals markets have two primary drivers, with the currency depreciation and inflation trade driving long term prices and highly leveraged trades by funds driving short term price action.

    Note the following long term price dynamic.


    Since 2001, the gold price has increased in four distinct growth trends as depicted above.

    A. 2001 - 2006: Post-bubble gradual currency depreciation and inflation trade
    B. H1 2006: Rapid speculative trade
    C. H2 2006 - 2007: Resumption of gradual currency depreciation and inflation trade
    D. 2007 - Present: New rapid speculative trade

    Within the current rapid speculative trade, we are watching for short term price volatility much as occurred at the end of the previous similar period C (H1 2006): a 20% correction from $720 to $580. A similar correction today would take gold prices down $200. We are also within the long term for volatility that will portend the end of the currency depreciation and inflation trade that began in 2001.

    The reason for yesterday's News with AntiSpin is the following observation of coordinated gold and silver price action March 4th and 5th.

    Note in the two charts below that show gold and silver spot prices March 3 thru March 5. Both declined at the same time march 4 just before noon Eastern time and partially recovered in a similarly steep price change after 8AM Eastern time March 5.



    In view of the charts above we ask: what trade forces are driving these simultaneous short term price changes in two precious metals markets, for silver and for gold? Platinum (not shown) remained unchanged.

    We are certain that it is not the same long term function that drove prices gradually in periods A and C defined above. We believe these short term price movements are driven by funds.

    A Tale of Two Markets


    Within the long gold and silver trade are players that create price movements that at times are counter to the long term trend and at other times exaggerate the long term trend. It is our position that the pullbacks created by the short term counter trends are buying opportunities for long investors and for traders the peaks of exaggerated short term price movements are selling opportunities. More importantly it is critical to distinguish between the kind of price volatility that funds can create with leverage versus the kind of price volatility we will see at the end of the long term PM inflation trade in place since 2001.

    We do not foresee in light of ongoing liquidity problems in global bond markets, combined with slowing economic growth and rising inflation around the world, how governments will be able to make bonds more attractive than hard assets by raising yields above the rate of inflation to draw money away as occurred in the early 1980s during the previous cycle at a time when increased liquidity is needed to manage the debt deflation.

    As long as future real interest rate expectations remain negative, the long PMs position that we took in 2001 remains in place.

    iTulip Select: The Investment Thesis for the Next Cycle™
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    Last edited by FRED; March 05, 2008, 01:02 PM.
    Ed.

  • #2
    Re: Gold Update: The small trade within the big trade

    that's tight. thanks.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Gold Update: The small trade within the big trade

      Ted Butler regards the funds deployment into the metals as the "buy and hold, long term money". The "specs" or speculators are the short term "hot" money, but he describes them as always trading opposite the Funds.

      I have no idea myself, but I do recall him referring to these two groups of players in the metal markets as "reciprocal" to each other.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Gold Update: The small trade within the big trade

        Originally posted by Lukester View Post
        Ted Butler regards the funds deployment into the metals as the "buy and hold, long term money". The "specs" or speculators are the short term "hot" money, but he describes them as always trading opposite the Funds.

        I have no idea myself, but I do recall him referring to these two groups of players in the metal markets as "reciprocal" to each other.
        We're saying there are buy and hold vs trading players in the market: ignore the trades, follow the long term players.
        Ed.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Gold Update: The small trade within the big trade

          OK Fred. Got it. I'm on board.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Gold Update: The small trade within the big trade

            Originally posted by FRED View Post
            We're saying there are buy and hold vs trading players in the market: ignore the trades, follow the long term players.
            The version with the charts above was a lot more fun to read than this one... :p

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Gold Update: The small trade within the big trade

              Originally posted by Lukester View Post
              OK Fred. Got it. I'm on board.

              Yep, me too Fred-o!
              Mega

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Gold Update: The small trade within the big trade

                Regarding gold and silver moving in tandem recently... I note that Central Fund of Canada (CEF) recently issued $57M in new shares (closed as of March 5th). Since CEF invests equally in gold and silver, might not the buying associated with the share issue have caused some of the synchronized movement? (Of course, I'm not sure whether $57M over a few days is significant relative to the size of the metals market, but I just thought I'd pass along the observation.)

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Gold Update: The small trade within the big trade

                  Originally posted by ASH View Post
                  Regarding gold and silver moving in tandem recently... I note that Central Fund of Canada (CEF) recently issued $57M in new shares (closed as of March 5th). Since CEF invests equally in gold and silver, might not the buying associated with the share issue have caused some of the synchronized movement? (Of course, I'm not sure whether $57M over a few days is significant relative to the size of the metals market, but I just thought I'd pass along the observation.)

                  Nice avatar, ASH. I don't know the answer to the consequence of what you noted.
                  Jim 69 y/o

                  "...Texans...the lowest form of white man there is." Robert Duvall, as Al Sieber, in "Geronimo." (see "Location" for examples.)

                  Dedicated to the idea that all people deserve a chance for a healthy productive life. B&M Gates Fdn.

                  Good judgement comes from experience; experience comes from bad judgement. Unknown.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Gold Update: The small trade within the big trade

                    Based on today's development, does it mean the 20% correction is starting? So retrace back all the way to $800? :confused:

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Gold Update: The small trade within the big trade

                      Originally posted by touchring View Post
                      Based on today's development, does it mean the 20% correction is starting? So retrace back all the way to $800? :confused:
                      Only who can see the future knows, so to my understanding no one knows.
                      Jim 69 y/o

                      "...Texans...the lowest form of white man there is." Robert Duvall, as Al Sieber, in "Geronimo." (see "Location" for examples.)

                      Dedicated to the idea that all people deserve a chance for a healthy productive life. B&M Gates Fdn.

                      Good judgement comes from experience; experience comes from bad judgement. Unknown.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: Gold Update: The small trade within the big trade

                        I was just about to pull the trigger last week at the peak to buy a boat load of bullion...WHEH!

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: Gold Update: The small trade within the big trade

                          Yeah, I pulled that trigger. Spot was $1012 on my latest 20 oz purchase. Oh well, I'll just hold it an buy more towards the bottom of this "correction."

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: Gold Update: The small trade within the big trade

                            Originally posted by FRED View Post
                            We're saying there are buy and hold vs trading players in the market: ignore the trades, follow the long term players.
                            Would Jim Sinclair be a long term player, even with his trade 1/3 viewpoint for some players?
                            http://www.NowAndTheFuture.com

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: Gold Update: The small trade within the big trade

                              Originally posted by mercerbear View Post
                              Yeah, I pulled that trigger. Spot was $1012 on my latest 20 oz purchase. Oh well, I'll just hold it an buy more towards the bottom of this "correction."
                              Me, too. Bought lots . . . but staggered my buying, as suggested by jk/Hussman, so wasn't hurt as badly as if I'd bought all at one price.
                              First lot was at 1002, then more at 985, 975 and then 961.
                              Will try to buy more at some future low point.
                              Hope I do better at catching the low . . . .

                              Also, bought a bunch of market shorts right before the Dow rose 400. Ouch.

                              What keeps me from feeling too bad is my hope that EJ is right, that in the long term, gold is going up and the market is going down
                              raja
                              Boycott Big Banks • Vote Out Incumbents

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