EJ: The countdown to the next crisis of The System has started.

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: EJ: The countdown to the next crisis of The System has started.

at some point they might figure out that it would work better to give money to people who will spend it.

+1

Put the same total amount into the hands of the bottom 30% and they will spend it all in 10 days.
Demand surges instantly for all common household goods, food, clothing, tires, diapers, gasoline...

[shiny!]

Re: EJ: The countdown to the next crisis of The System has started.

at some point they might figure out that it would work better to give money to people who will spend it.

jk, warn me next time you're gonna make a joke. You made me laugh so hard I snorted coffee all over my keyboard!

[Milton Kuo]

Re: EJ: The countdown to the next crisis of The System has started.

+1

Put the same total amount into the hands of the bottom 30% and they will spend it all in 10 days.
Demand surges instantly for all common household goods, food, clothing, tires, diapers, gasoline...

And China says, "What a marvelous boost to our economy with America's poor buying our shoddy shit! Let's have a party to celebrate this economic boon! Bat soup for everyone!"

[kbird]

Re: EJ: The countdown to the next crisis of The System has started.

I think the problems in the stock market are spreading to the banking system and relatedly to the Treasury market. I'm pretty sure that's why the Fed is bringing out the bazooka, which apparently isn't a big enough bazooka.

[globaleconomicollaps]

Re: EJ: The countdown to the next crisis of The System has started.

I think the problems in the stock market are spreading to the banking system and relatedly to the Treasury market. I'm pretty sure that's why the Fed is bringing out the bazooka, which apparently isn't a big enough bazooka.

Chris Martenson had a good interview with Hussman today. He pointed out that stimulus doesn't work for supply shocks. I thought that was a funny thing to say. Isn't this an epic demand shock? I also heard Julliette Declercq say that she thinks the Fed has lots of bullets left so I expect more bazooka ... rockets? Explosions? What exactly do Bazookas do?

I just looked up the Bazooka. It was a notoriously unreliable, inaccurate rocket launcher that tended to kill the operator. Sounds about right.

[Chris Coles]

Re: EJ: The countdown to the next crisis of The System has started.

at some point they might figure out that it would work better to give money to people who will spend it.

Even better if they gave it to people that had every reason to create new jobs; even better still via a set of rules that have already passes scrutiny from several Governors of the Bank of England and had already been passed to the Federal Reserve; http://www.chriscoles.com/Recapitali...20RecapGRE.pdf

[EJ]

Re: EJ: The countdown to the next crisis of The System has started.

Yep! Other names I love coming out of this: SQ square, V Visa (long term hold with their buy of Plaid, amazing internet infrastructure to read about for fintech), ZM Zoom, Uber, and DPZ (dominos pizza).

Restaurants were already seeing major declines in numbers of diners even before major cities like LA started forcing restaurants to close for all business except take-out and delivery.

This March 12 press release caught my eye: SBA To Provide Small Businesses Impacted by Coronavirus (COVID-19) Up to $2 Million in Disaster Assistance Loans

Friday I wrote to the email address provided to ask how a company qualifies and applies for such a loan. Here's the response I received today:

Thank you for contacting the SBA Disaster Customer Service Center.

A disaster declaration has not yet been announced for the county where your business is located. Therefore, SBA Disaster Loan Assistance is currently unavailable for Coronavirus related economic impact on businesses in your area.

Once a declaration is made, the U.S. Small Business Administration will begin offering designated states and territories low-interest federal disaster loans for working capital to small businesses suffering substantial economic injury as a result of the Coronavirus (COVID-19). The application process for Economic Injury Disaster Loan assistance will be made available to all affected communities as well as updated on our website: SBA.gov/disaster.

SBA’s Economic Injury Disaster Loans are just one piece of the expanded focus of the federal government’s coordinated response, and the SBA is strongly committed to providing the most effective and customer-focused response possible.

Sincerely,

Office of Disaster Assistance, Customer Service Center
U.S. Small Business Administration

So if you're a small business owner in Massachusetts you need to hold out until the economic impact of COVID-19 earns MA a disaster declaration.

A disaster declaration is made by FEMA according to the process described here.

It's not clear how or when a disaster declaration process that's designed for disasters like hurricanes and floods will be applied to a pandemic.

I visited the SBA Disaster Loan website, created an account, and started to dig around to see if any state had be so designated, starting with Washington, the pandemic epicenter of the US. Excerpt below from Seattle’s tech hub goes quiet as businesses struggle to cope with effects of COVID-19:

In South Lake Union, small businesses ranging in size from five to 50 employees make up 85 percent of the businesses in the community and represent more than 7,500 employees, according to Danah Abarr, executive director of the SLU Chamber.

Businesses that rely on daily revenue that could be anywhere from $500 to $3,500 a day were reporting 80-90 percent declines in sales and are facing a huge financial burden.

“There is simply no way for a small business to weather this storm without immediate funding relief,” Abarr said.

I was unable to find a single state that has yet received a disaster declaration. The announced Disaster Assistance Loans are unavailable.

We'll keep and eye on it. Unless this changes over the next few weeks, a substantial number of small businesses will fail.

[EJ]

Re: EJ: The countdown to the next crisis of The System has started.

Yep! Other names I love coming out of this: SQ square, V Visa (long term hold with their buy of Plaid, amazing internet infrastructure to read about for fintech), ZM Zoom, Uber, and DPZ (dominos pizza).

To your point about the urgency of emergency financial support for small businesses...



Restaurants were already seeing major declines in numbers of diners even before major cities like LA started forcing restaurants to close for all business except take-out and delivery.

This March 12 press release caught my eye: SBA To Provide Small Businesses Impacted by Coronavirus (COVID-19) Up to $2 Million in Disaster Assistance Loans

Friday I wrote to the email address provided to ask how a company qualifies and applies for such a loan. Here's the response I received today:

Thank you for contacting the SBA Disaster Customer Service Center.

A disaster declaration has not yet been announced for the county where your business is located. Therefore, SBA Disaster Loan Assistance is currently unavailable for Coronavirus related economic impact on businesses in your area.

Once a declaration is made, the U.S. Small Business Administration will begin offering designated states and territories low-interest federal disaster loans for working capital to small businesses suffering substantial economic injury as a result of the Coronavirus (COVID-19). The application process for Economic Injury Disaster Loan assistance will be made available to all affected communities as well as updated on our website: SBA.gov/disaster.

SBA’s Economic Injury Disaster Loans are just one piece of the expanded focus of the federal government’s coordinated response, and the SBA is strongly committed to providing the most effective and customer-focused response possible.

Sincerely,

Office of Disaster Assistance, Customer Service Center
U.S. Small Business Administration

So if you're a small business owner in Massachusetts you need to hold out until the economic impact of COVID-19 earns MA a disaster declaration.

A disaster declaration is made by FEMA according to the process described here.

It's not clear how or when a disaster declaration process that's designed for disasters like hurricanes and floods will be applied to a pandemic.

I visited the SBA Disaster Loan website, created an account, and started to dig around to see if any state had be so designated, starting with Washington, the pandemic epicenter of the US. Excerpt below from Seattle’s tech hub goes quiet as businesses struggle to cope with effects of COVID-19:

In South Lake Union, small businesses ranging in size from five to 50 employees make up 85 percent of the businesses in the community and represent more than 7,500 employees, according to Danah Abarr, executive director of the SLU Chamber.

Businesses that rely on daily revenue that could be anywhere from $500 to $3,500 a day were reporting 80-90 percent declines in sales and are facing a huge financial burden.

“There is simply no way for a small business to weather this storm without immediate funding relief,” Abarr said.

I was unable to find a single state that has yet received a disaster declaration. The announced Disaster Assistance Loans are unavailable.

We'll keep and eye on it. Unless this changes over the next few weeks, a substantial number of small businesses will fail.

[ProdigyofZen]

Re: EJ: The countdown to the next crisis of The System has started.

To your point about the urgency of emergency financial support for small businesses...



Restaurants were already seeing major declines in numbers of diners even before major cities like LA started forcing restaurants to close for all business except take-out and delivery.

This March 12 press release caught my eye: SBA To Provide Small Businesses Impacted by Coronavirus (COVID-19) Up to $2 Million in Disaster Assistance Loans

Friday I wrote to the email address provided to ask how a company qualifies and applies for such a loan. Here's the response I received today:

Thank you for contacting the SBA Disaster Customer Service Center.

A disaster declaration has not yet been announced for the county where your business is located. Therefore, SBA Disaster Loan Assistance is currently unavailable for Coronavirus related economic impact on businesses in your area.

Once a declaration is made, the U.S. Small Business Administration will begin offering designated states and territories low-interest federal disaster loans for working capital to small businesses suffering substantial economic injury as a result of the Coronavirus (COVID-19). The application process for Economic Injury Disaster Loan assistance will be made available to all affected communities as well as updated on our website: SBA.gov/disaster.

SBA’s Economic Injury Disaster Loans are just one piece of the expanded focus of the federal government’s coordinated response, and the SBA is strongly committed to providing the most effective and customer-focused response possible.

Sincerely,

Office of Disaster Assistance, Customer Service Center
U.S. Small Business Administration

So if you're a small business owner in Massachusetts you need to hold out until the economic impact of COVID-19 earns MA a disaster declaration.

A disaster declaration is made by FEMA according to the process described here.

It's not clear how or when a disaster declaration process that's designed for disasters like hurricanes and floods will be applied to a pandemic.

I visited the SBA Disaster Loan website, created an account, and started to dig around to see if any state had be so designated, starting with Washington, the pandemic epicenter of the US. Excerpt below from Seattle’s tech hub goes quiet as businesses struggle to cope with effects of COVID-19:

In South Lake Union, small businesses ranging in size from five to 50 employees make up 85 percent of the businesses in the community and represent more than 7,500 employees, according to Danah Abarr, executive director of the SLU Chamber.

Businesses that rely on daily revenue that could be anywhere from $500 to $3,500 a day were reporting 80-90 percent declines in sales and are facing a huge financial burden.

“There is simply no way for a small business to weather this storm without immediate funding relief,” Abarr said.

I was unable to find a single state that has yet received a disaster declaration. The announced Disaster Assistance Loans are unavailable.

We'll keep and eye on it. Unless this changes over the next few weeks, a substantial number of small businesses will fail.

Yep, I saw that chart when it came out. This is the problem, SMB is the engine of growth in the majority of states. The majority of these businesses will be bankrupt within 1 to 2 months.

They don't put working capital aside for times like this and have no mechanism to do so.

After the small businesses start to go, the SMB loans that all the startups/fintech/online banks/traditional banks etc have made the past 10 years, will go belly up and need Fed assistance.

This will cause cascading defaults across the economy.

It needs to be stopped now with a Fed line of credit at no interest to be drawn on.

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: EJ: The countdown to the next crisis of The System has started.

State of Ohio just closed all bars and all sit down restaurants.
St Patrick's Day is day after tomorrow.
My regular pub is an Irish place, owner has already paid for tents, stages, extra inventory, and permits for his annual bash with hundreds of patrons.
Low five figures up in smoke, party cancelled.

[globaleconomicollaps]

Re: EJ: The countdown to the next crisis of The System has started.

State of Ohio just closed all bars and all sit down restaurants.
St Patrick's Day is day after tomorrow.
My regular pub is an Irish place, owner has already paid for tents, stages, extra inventory, and permits for his annual bash with hundreds of patrons.
Low five figures up in smoke, party cancelled.

Here the entire country has been shutdown as of tonight. All schools closed. All businesses except medical, banks and grocery stores closed. It's a Sudden Stop.

Credit markets have seized up in early trading causing the Fed to make a panic move, cutting rates to zero and announcing QE5 worth 700 billion Simoleons ( Simulated Dollars). It should last for a few hours.

This is the Big One boys and girls.

[shiny!]

Re: EJ: The countdown to the next crisis of The System has started.

Here the entire country has been shutdown as of tonight. All schools closed. All businesses except medical, banks and grocery stores closed. It's a Sudden Stop.

Credit markets have seized up in early trading causing the Fed to make a panic move, cutting rates to zero and announcing QE5 worth 700 billion Simoleons ( Simulated Dollars). It should last for a few hours.

This is the Big One boys and girls.

Your username is perfect, BTW.

[globaleconomicollaps]

Re: EJ: The countdown to the next crisis of The System has started.

Your username is perfect, BTW.

You might recall it was originally a joke. Maybe not so much today.

[shiny!]

Re: EJ: The countdown to the next crisis of The System has started.

You might recall it was originally a joke. Maybe not so much today.

I didn't know that. Was it a good joke? I keep wishing today was April Fool's Day.

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: EJ: The countdown to the next crisis of The System has started.

Here the entire country has been shutdown as of tonight. All schools closed. All businesses except medical, banks and grocery stores closed. It's a Sudden Stop.

Credit markets have seized up in early trading causing the Fed to make a panic move, cutting rates to zero and announcing QE5 worth 700 billion Simoleons ( Simulated Dollars). It should last for a few hours.

This is the Big One boys and girls.

Most outlets reporting that futures plunged to limit down AFTER fed announced emergency measures.
This time Fed measures might pump markets for zero hours and zero minutes.