Our Next President?

[dcarrigg]

Re: Third parties Must Lose!

Duverger's Law has 3 elements:
1. First past the post
2. Plurality wins
3. Single member districts
The Senate doesn't meet criterion 3. One would predict that independents would have more success there than in the House or the Presidency.

[dcarrigg]

Re: Atlantic says Immigration way up

That is the most likely explanation. I notice from the error message that Cloudflare's DNS is being used. I've used Cloudflare's DNS before and its reliability is poor. How poor is it? I find that Comcast, a cable television company, seems to have more reliable DNS. If Chris isn't too concerned about privacy issues, he can use Google's DNS (8.8.8.8 and 8.8.4.4). Barring that, he should also be able to access the web site through a VPN or Tor.

Yeah, Verizon is unreliable enough at resolving I've had to switch to Google's DNS before.

[dcarrigg]

Re: Third parties Must Lose!

Also this is because the Republican Party is all but dead in New England for federal offices. We no longer have a single Republican representative in any district in any of our 6 states. Only Susan Collins remains in the Senate, and she's liable to lose in 2020.

Otherwise, the other 11 Senators from up here caucus with the Democrats, and 9 of them are Democrats. Regionally, the GOP just cannot compete here, much as the Democrats just cannot compete in the Deep South, except against a fatally flawed candidate like Roy Moore.

But there still are people who do not like the DNC or the Democrat brand here. They simply hate the GOP brand worse. So people like King and Sanders have an opening. For better or for worse, all that "Real America" talk of Palin and Cowboy Hat wearing of W and play to the Mexican border of Trump just anchors the GOP in the south and in southern politics that really don't speak to people up here.

Clinton also didn't speak to people up here, and lost 4 of the 6 states, and came close to losing the other 2 despite overwhelming party support. Lots of New England is rural. But nearly none of it is evangelical protestant, and nearly none of it is into the southern tropes that have become central to GOP identity. Those tropes do seem to sell better in the plains and midwest, though. But I think there's a cost in the DNC's laser focus on big city cosmopolitanism, just like there's a cost in the GOP's laser focus on evangelical southern pride, and in the Senate, more than any other elected federal body, we find people who fill the gap those foci leave amongst the rest of us who aren't quite yoga yuppies, but who also aren't quite confederate cowboys.

For all the big name national GOP politicians I've seen dress up like Billy the Kid, eat steak, and go blind hunting, I've never seen one dress up like the Gordon's Fisherman, eat lobster, and go offshore fishing.

And I'm not just making this up:












Even when Mitt Romney who won up here goes national, suddenly he looks like this:






And, of course, it ain't like Billy Jeffs and old Carter didn't do it either, but they were good ol' boys after all:





All I'm saying is that however right this feels other places, it signals something else up here. Especially because so many of them went to school up here and grew up here and definitely didn't dress like that or sound like that when they were sitting in Phillips or Harvard or Yale classes, and we know it. So for a long time, none of these guys won here. Ford beat Reagan in the '76 NH primary. Kennedy beats Carter in most of New England. Tsongas beats Clinton in NH. Buchanan beats Dole there. McCain beats Bush. The cowboy schtick isn't really a winner up here, even with native Connecticut sons under the cowboy hat.

So maybe, if you're insistent on the independent idea, the focus is best placed on taking seats in the Senate. You'll have better luck there mathematically than in the House or the White House. But it can't just be about moderate (meaning neoliberal, not populist) policy. It has to be about the dual rejection of the lost cause of the confederacy and of the global liberal elite at the same time. And maybe if you shed the regressive economic policy of centrism and adopt a populist perspective, you'd have a lot of success with a nation-wide independent Senate campaign like this. Maybe if it got big enough, you could build a new party out of it strong enough to challenge one of the big 2.

But that'd be my strategy, anyways, if I really cared about pushing for independent candidates and whatnot. Going after the presidency just throws it to whoever you took the least votes from and makes people hate independents and third parties for playing spoiler.

[Chris Coles]

Re: Atlantic says Immigration way up

Dr. Mercola is a fraud who preys on the ignorant and desperate to make a fortune for himself. Your government choosing to censor his site (if that's even true) is a policy question that has nothing to do with the government of the US. It's certainly not evidence of the US government trying to enslave the world.

We've been through this before. I hate these interactions. You need help and I hope you get it. Best wishes.

I can understand your dilemma, I am from a different nation and thus from a different culture. Dr Mercola has some 12 million subscribers world wide and does appear to be very successful financially, though my contribution to that has been minimal over the many years; since another iTulip subscriber recommended him to me and others here. So I am to take it you do not like people that succeed, particularly financially? My experience has been that, by taking his advice, my overall health has immensely improved.

His site disappeared at precisely the moment it was announced that anti-vaxer sites were to be pulled down. All of them are from the USA; which has the worst health outcome for its citizens, for any first world nation. 25% of your children are Autistic. This last week we watched a BBC TV program that included video of autistic children in a school beating each other senseless; seven teachers trying to hold one of them down. The USA will have a quarter of the population unable to make any input to your society, and the numbers are rising. Yet every effort is being made to prevent debate.

Yes, I do understand that my view of the why's and wherefores are in total disagreement to yours. That is life and everyone has the right to disagree. Your nation needs help, and I do hope that it gets it. Best wishes.

[vt]

Re: Third parties Must Lose!

Depends on who is running. A Jeb Bush- Hillary race would have been a perfect setup for the right independent.

[Polish_Silver]

In this system, YOu are totally right

Also this is because the Republican Party is all but dead in New England for federal offices. ...hunting, I've never seen one dress up like the Gordon's Fisherman, eat lobster, and go offshore fishing.

And I'm not just making this up:
....
. Going after the presidency just throws it to whoever you took the least votes from and makes people hate independents and third parties for playing spoiler.

(emphasis added)

With our current electoral system, your analysis is right on.
The elections are not about issues, but persona, identification, party loyalty.

Candidates who talk about issues (Ron Paul, Sanders) do not fare well in primaries.

Voters are frustrated because none of the candidates really represents them.

What we need is an explicitly multi-party electoral system, based on proportional representation.

[dcarrigg]

Re: In this system, YOu are totally right

(emphasis added)

With our current electoral system, your analysis is right on.
The elections are not about issues, but persona, identification, party loyalty.

Candidates who talk about issues (Ron Paul, Sanders) do not fare well in primaries.

Voters are frustrated because none of the candidates really represents them.

What we need is an explicitly multi-party electoral system, based on proportional representation.

That would certainly do the trick. But it's such a huge structural and constitutional change, it seems unlikely. The other thing to consider is the long term. No proportional system has lasted so long as the United States. There's something to be said for longevity.

In the end of the day, this is how the American system works. Nothing changes for 30 to 50 years. Then suddenly in four or five years everything changes. It's a punctuated equilibrium. And we're due for drastic change, soon.

All it takes is one wave election where you get 60 Senators, a majority in the House and the Presidency. It happens infrequently. Not since 1964 clearly. Close in 2008, but barely and Kennedy dying killed it. We weren't ready then anyhow. When we are, the change will be remarkable and swift. My money is on fewer than 10 years now. The way it goes is not ordained. But we can't keep going with the way things are for much longer.

[dcarrigg]

Re: med costs

It almost doesn't matter. Facts don't matter...deportations fell under Trump

Here's another one: Trump Admin expanding H2B visas by 30,000 more per year. 100,000 more per year than ever under Obama. Of course, I read that in the Martha's Vineyard paper. The rich folk here who actually own everything are cheering it on. Not a big surprise to me. Not sure how many folks here interact with the masters of the universe with any regularity. Wild how far reality and perception can diverge these days.

[Polish_Silver]

track record of proportional representation

That would certainly do the trick. But it's such a huge structural and constitutional change, it seems unlikely. The other thing to consider is the long term. No proportional system has lasted so long as the United States. There's something to be said for longevity.

In the end of the day, this is how the American system works. Nothing changes for 30 to 50 years. Then suddenly in four or five years everything changes. It's a punctuated equilibrium. And we're due for drastic change, soon.

All it takes is one wave election where you get 60 Senators, a majority in the House and the Presidency. It happens infrequently. Not since 1964 clearly. Close in 2008, but barely and Kennedy dying killed it. We weren't ready then anyhow. When we are, the change will be remarkable and swift. My money is on fewer than 10 years now. The way it goes is not ordained. But we can't keep going with the way things are for much longer.

Proportional representation is common for governments formed after 1942 (europe, Israel, and I think India) . So there is a 70+ year track record. I am not aware
of proportional representation before that. Is there a nation you think failed because of proportional representation?

I'd say the US is functioning now because of the federal system and separation of powers. And the current electoral system is precisely what could destroy it.

The lack of change after two absurd wars, a financial crisis, and the patriot act is what convinces me we are going down hill, with no brakes. There was no leadership
able to bring change during any of those times. And very few elected leaders even wanting change. Health care has been exorbitant in this country for 30 years.
And who but Trump even says so?
I actually think we could get presidents MUCH worse than trump.

[Polish_Silver]

Re: med costs

The H2B VISA labor certification program establishes a means for U.S. nonagricultural employers who anticipate a shortage of domestic workers, to bring temporary nonimmigrant foreign workers into the U.S. H2B VISA eligibility requires that the job and the U.S. employer's need for the foreign worker be of a temporary

I Did not now what the H2B was. Sounds like what we need LESS of them, not MORE of them.

As for this "American workers would not do it" . Pure BS. If wages and working conditions were decent, they would do it.

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: med costs

As I understand it, H2B visas are for unskilled labor like landscape and farm work, while H1B visas are for specialty work, and it seems IT jobs dominate. The large banks like Chase have loads of folks from India, Pakistan, Nepal...
Here's a list of the top companies sponsoring H1B visas from thos site https://visacoach.org/2009/02/26/the...ored-us-visas/
Corporations really love the foreign H1B engineers. They accept lower wages, helping push pay scales down for all workers.
The H1B workers are bound to the job - if they quit, they get deported. So they can be pushed to work longer hours for lower wages, which sets a certain tone for all professional staff.

COMPANY	No. of Visas
INFOSYS TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED	4,559
WIPRO LIMITED	2,678
SATYAM COMPUTER SERVICES LIMITED	1,917
TATA CONSULTANCY SERVICES LIMITED	1,539
MICROSOFT CORP	1,037
ACCENTURE LLP	731
COGNIZANT TECH SOLUTIONS US CORP	467
CISCO SYSTEMS INC	422
LARSEN & TOUBRO INFOTECH LIMITED	403
IBM INDIA PRIVATE LIMITED	381
INTEL CORP	351
ERNST & YOUNG LLP	321
PATNI AMERICAS INC	296
TERRA INFOTECH INC	281
QUALCOMM INCORPORATED	255
MPHASIS CORPORATION	251
KPMG LLP	245

[dcarrigg]

Re: med costs

As I understand it, H2B visas are for unskilled labor like landscape and farm work, while H1B visas are for specialty work, and it seems IT jobs dominate. The large banks like Chase have loads of folks from India, Pakistan, Nepal...
Here's a list of the top companies sponsoring H1B visas from thos site https://visacoach.org/2009/02/26/the...ored-us-visas/
Corporations really love the foreign H1B engineers. They accept lower wages, helping push pay scales down for all workers.
The H1B workers are bound to the job - if they quit, they get deported. So they can be pushed to work longer hours for lower wages, which sets a certain tone for all professional staff.

COMPANY	No. of Visas
INFOSYS TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED	4,559
WIPRO LIMITED	2,678
SATYAM COMPUTER SERVICES LIMITED	1,917
TATA CONSULTANCY SERVICES LIMITED	1,539
MICROSOFT CORP	1,037
ACCENTURE LLP	731
COGNIZANT TECH SOLUTIONS US CORP	467
CISCO SYSTEMS INC	422
LARSEN & TOUBRO INFOTECH LIMITED	403
IBM INDIA PRIVATE LIMITED	381
INTEL CORP	351
ERNST & YOUNG LLP	321
PATNI AMERICAS INC	296
TERRA INFOTECH INC	281
QUALCOMM INCORPORATED	255
MPHASIS CORPORATION	251
KPMG LLP	245

IIRC, H1B includes fashion models too. So there's a double-benefit for corporate tech execs. Bring in the cheap help and bring in the yacht girls. I've been around here all my life. And I can tell you without a doubt that it ain't home grown girls with New England accents sitting in bikinis on deck with the 60 year old men. Was taking amtrak on the regular for work about 5 or 10 years ago. Wednesday mornings there'd be a gaggle of them coming off the ferry stop from the islands, taking the bus to the train station with huge bags and top end luxury clothes, some headed to Boston, others to NYC. They were hard to miss! BTW, what do you think being bound to the job under threat of deportation does in that scenario...nothing good, I'm certain.

Far as the H2Bs go, this is why every waitress and ice cream stand worker on the Cape and Islands speaks Russian or Ukrainian or something these days. And I suspect they might end up at some of the parties with their better-paid H1B counterparts after working hours. But it's not just here. Went to Yellowstone and saw the same thing in Gardiner, MT. I'm sure it's even more obvious in Aspen and Silicon Valley. Back in college I had a night job making deliveries. Even back then the party rental company in an old mill had about 4 or 5 dozen eastern European Girls doing laundry and prepping napkins and table cloths and all that for the seasonal weddings and parties up and down the shore. It's a wild thing to experience locally before you really put it into a global context.

[dcarrigg]

Re: track record of proportional representation

Yeah, I think it's totally possible too. I don't rule out anything you're saying here. History tells me that usually times like these lead to realignments. But history also tells me that the presidency was never quite this powerful in the past, so...

[dcarrigg]

Re: med costs

Yup. That's the thing. Housing prices are so high on the islands in the summer when they need workers that nobody wants to move to the islands just for three months to work the low wage jobs just to give every penny they earn over to a landlord for a slot in a twin mattress bunk bed and a bathroom you share with 16 other people. It's literally all a matter of wage to rent ratios being out of whack.

[Polish_Silver]

My immigration policy

IIRC, H1B includes fashion models too.t.

Maybe stop H2 completely and use H1 only for physicians, lawyers and CEO's?