Our Next President?

[ProdigyofZen]

Re: Our Next President?

it is possible you are right in these predictions, poz, but i sincerely hope you're wrong. both sanders and warren, neither of whom are likely to get the nomination imo, are very focused on the banking system and shadow banking system. it is my hope that their efforts will help the democrats keep economic realities as a focus, albeit certainly not their only focus.

Attacking the banking system doesn't play because there is no "crisis" like 2008-2011. They will focus not on the banking system but on the economy being "controlled by white males keeping everyone else out of jobs and power."

They need a face to point to, stating the banking system is corrupt has no value because there is nothing attached to the banking system, it is abstract.

[jk]

Re: Our Next President?

Attacking the banking system doesn't play because there is no "crisis" like 2008-2011.

i think there's a fair chance the next crisis will have begun by nov 2020.

[jk]

Re: The Real Problem

Sort of wish I was as optimistic as you about the prospects of interstate divergence putting the reigns on the imperial presidency.

never said i was optimistic. i was just trying to think of how the political world might split along an axis orthogonal to the one that's punching us in the face. your comparison of ma and va brought a "states' rights" axis to mind. no new civil war; instead it would be live and let live. what a concept!

[vt]

Re: The Real Problem

The states are the laboratory of democracy. They try different ways to serve their voters. The results give the Federal governmnent a survey of what works best and what doesn't.

[EJ]

Re: Our Next President?

Good call, on the surface. A newcomer with a relatively blank slate onto which bits and pieces of voter preference can be written as the campaign goes on, ala Obama, starting with "opposite of Trump" positioning of "love for each other and for our country." Ideal as a marketing campaign president for more of the same policies as Bush and Obama but without the Trump crazy.

Almost everyone will welcome a return to the regular scheduled programming, except for this: Kamala Harris’s Trump-Size Tax Plan

Warren lawyers the question of taxes: How high does Elizabeth Warren want to raise taxes? Her challenger wants to know.

It is on the question of taxation that electability hinges.

The reality of mounting federal government debt resulting from unrealistic tax policy will remain in the periphery of the conversation until after the election.

Warren if she continues to play her cards this way could win, and at least won't have to got back on a "read my lips" pledge when she's forced to raise taxes.

[dcarrigg]

Re: The Real Problem

never said i was optimistic. i was just trying to think of how the political world might split along an axis orthogonal to the one that's punching us in the face. your comparison of ma and va brought a "states' rights" axis to mind. no new civil war; instead it would be live and let live. what a concept!

Sorry if I extrapolated on you there. I realize we're all just taking stabs at what we think may possibly come to pass in this thread.

[dcarrigg]

Re: Our Next President?

Just spitballing, but something tells me tax credits to the bottom third isn't going to be a winning campaign issue-item. Not even in the coming Democratic primary, and certainly not in the general. It's more 2000 thinking than 2020 thinking. These kind of means-tested, conditional, tax-transfer proposals didn't really sell for Clinton in 2016, and I suspect they won't sell again in 2020. Partly it's because it's confusing as hell. So kludgy. Ask anyone on the street if they qualify for the EITC, and they have no damned clue. From a policy perspective it may look like a good idea. But it's not super-effective politics. And I actually think on the street-level, it's less effective policy than most wonks assume. The problem is nobody can count on it, so nobody can plan on it. It becomes more like a weird mercurial annual bonus than an income stream. Then the vultures come out. Cash advances on tax returns with 900% interest, etc. Anyways, even the bulk of the people who'd benefit from it probably don't want that style of handout. Not when the real split point is more 80/20 and heavily overweighted at the right tail of the distribution. The 3rd & 4th quintiles have not done well these past 20 years either. If you're going to be offering things that leave them out, they won't have much to be jazzed about.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Our Next President?

Don’t count out Tulsi Gabbard.

She just about ticks every box in a manufactured candidate.

Female
Offspring of a legal immigrant
Ethnic minority
Veteran(left office to serve on deployment)
Unpopular with entrenched Democrats(not shortlisted to backfill Senator Dan Inouye)
Blue Dog-ish Democrat in appearance

She’s only missing small business ownership/startup experience or strong empathy

She’s already announced and is a clear outsider, but would be far more likely to sway voters on the right and possibly the middle than either Kamala Harris or Elizabeth Warren.

——-

What should not be underestimated is the disruptive influence Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is having.

AOC is not eligible to run for President or experienced enough to lead the way out of a paper bag, but her social following is not to be underestimated.

She effectively represents the voice of:

1)People carrying $1.5 trillion 8nnstudent debt indentured servitude

and/or

2)People struggling in the low wage, low skill service “gig” economy

and/or

3)People carrying(or are close to) medical debt or medical bankruptcy

And that’s a lot of people. If they can be activated as a voting block......it could get interesting.

Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren are already reactively adapting their own output/content to catch up to AOC’s social momentum.

AOC is pushing a very hard left “feelings > facts” narrative that is connecting with the 3 large and growing audiences I listed above.

AOC also seems unwilling to be reigned in by Democrat leadership and is trolling retired senior Democrat leaders like Lieberman.

AOC has potential to be an internal Democratic Party disruptor that could split the party between hard left and center left.

Hence why I think someone like Tulsi Gabbard could be viewed as a Center Left safety choice.

But it’s very early days.

If Trump is not running in 2020, I’m going with Nikki Haley as the GOP’s doppelgänger

[EJ]

Re: Our Next President?

Simple messages like "A Chicken for Every Pot" and "Join the Silk Stocking Class" messages brought up-to-date will resonate versus obscure tax policy and without offending any interests.

Americans don't want the rich held back. They want to join them. To get in on the action.

The winning political message for 2020 isn't "I'll punish the rich" ala Sanders but "Elect me and I'll make you part of the Elite that runs things and controls all the money. I'll bring you in."

It's a time-tested win-win.

Warren has possibly figured this out.

[dcarrigg]

Re: Our Next President?

You may be right.

Still, I think her past will throw up some hurdles. For one, I don't think she's the offspring of an immigrant. From what I know, her mom was a white-bread midwestern gal and her dad was an Air Force brat whose dad was stationed in American Samoa. Her grandma was a local that her grandpa met there, so she's got some roots on American Samoa. But so far as I know, 3 of her 4 grandparents were certainly US citizens, and one was a citizen of a US territory.

The Hindu thing and any ties to India seem like they're only because her family got really wrapped up in a Hare Krishna sect called Science of Identity. They had a bunch of members as politicians, including her dad. Both her parents were board members of the Science of Identity Foundation (as were her husband's parents, iirc). But her father has since switched from Republican to Democrat and Hindu to Catholic. Who knows exactly what that means, as it's a secretive group. The Congresswoman was named after it, and the only schools she attended besides homeschools from K-12 were their schools in the Philippines, which were described by some who attended as odd to say the least. They span both parties and switch between them, but the sect has its own views.

It may all be nothing. But there's potentially skeletons there. First she'll have to deal with her position switches. They're already hitting her on that. Then there will be all this Krishna fundamentalist offshoot stuff. Then there's the questionable foreign policy stuff, especially vis-a-vis Assad. Finally there's the fact that the left has long had their knives out for her for various reasons.

You're right. It's early days. Maybe it all becomes a big nothing-burger or whatever.

[vt]

Re: Our Next President?

"Mrs. you didn't build that" will not play well for those aspiring to become rich.

It will be a new face, possibly an outside face no one is aware of. And they will come from the center with a message of unification to enrich all, and end all the fruitless, immature division.

[Slimprofits]

Re: Our Next President?

Good call, on the surface. A newcomer with a relatively blank slate onto which bits and pieces of voter preference can be written as the campaign goes on, ala Obama, starting with "opposite of Trump" positioning of "love for each other and for our country." Ideal as a marketing campaign president for more of the same policies as Bush and Obama but without the Trump crazy.

Almost everyone will welcome a return to the regular scheduled programming, except for this: Kamala Harris’s Trump-Size Tax Plan

My wager is for the Dem nominee, not the election winner!

[Slimprofits]

Re: Our Next President?

Good call, on the surface. A newcomer with a relatively blank slate onto which bits and pieces of voter preference can be written as the campaign goes on, ala Obama, starting with "opposite of Trump" positioning of "love for each other and for our country." Ideal as a marketing campaign president for more of the same policies as Bush and Obama but without the Trump crazy.

Almost everyone will welcome a return to the regular scheduled programming, except for this: Kamala Harris’s Trump-Size Tax Plan

My wager is for the Dem nominee, not the election winner!

[Slimprofits]

Re: Our Next President?

Don’t count out Tulsi Gabbard.

I'm a fan, but she has no chance. Those two go hand in hand.

She's as independent as they come, hence she must be destroyed.
The loud 10-20% on the left HATES Tulsi. Look at CNN and other left/Dem channels and publications. Look at Twitter. She's "anti-gay, pro-Assad, the Ruskies love her, etc."

[Morgasbord]

Re: Our Next President?

If you're not paying attention to DSA's platform and AOC, you're missing the zeitgeist. As someone of the LGBT persuasion and thus very connected to Leftist thinking and those gosh-darned "millennials", my read of the pulse is that a centrist Democrat is not electable anymore; a milquetoast democrat will just lose to Trump. A Democrat will win based on their ability synthesize enough of the DSA/AOC's Green New Deal and Stephanie Kealton explanations of "debt doesn't matter" MMT to fund it into a digestible platform that appeals to under 35's and enough red staters to flip the electoral college.