Our Next President?

[dcarrigg]

Re: Our Next President?

Voter turnout has been declining historically. There are at least 40% that do not vote:

http://www.electproject.org/national-1789-present


I have a theory that many of the actual voters for Clinton and Trump were not necessarily strong supporters. They may well have been voting Against the other candidate than For who they vote in favor of.

There are likely more than enough voters to gain 34% of the vote to win a Presidental election. Not high percentage odds but doable. Perot polled at least that high and lead for a short period.

That's Michael McDonald's website. Here are his figures for 2018 and his thoughts about 2020: https://mobile.twitter.com/electproj...04733841879040

Turnout is historically very high. It was higher back in the day when women couldn't vote at all and you had property qualifications and Jim Crow hurdles that limited the voting eligible population. But there were never more Americans that voted in a midterm than in 2018. https://www.google.com/amp/nymag.com...ince-1914.html

[vt]

Re: Our Next President?

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/...crisis-1191637

[dcarrigg]

Re: Our Next President?

In the Starspins of Zorelta 3127 there was a planet called Blornax. Blornax was the seat of a powerful trading empire, the most powerful planet in the Galaxy, actually. This wasn't something many foresaw just a few hundred starspins ago. Blornax was located on an out of the way spiral arm. It was more or less a political oddity, never the most populated planet, and long somewhat untamed. In fact, settlers from the galactic core only landed on Blornax about 500 starspins ago.

But for the last couple hundred starspins, Blornax had been more or less ruled by a Chancellor. The Blornaxians were good spacefarers and ship builders. Blornax itself was full of valuable natural resources and good farmlands. Every few starspins they'd elect a new Blornaxian Assembly and a new Chancellor. Soon the Blornaxian military and trade routes stretched across the Galaxy. And with that came great wealth and great expenses.

There had always been a number of very wealthy Blornaxian families, just as there had always been Blornaxian slums. At least as far as anyone could remember that was the case. Most Blornaxians thought of this as the normal order of things, and very few bothered to question it. But then, about the YoZ 3110, a quiet change took place.

See, in 3110, the High Court of Blornax issued a decree. It ruled that, since telepathy helmets and telepathic transmissions cost credits, and since Blornaxians are guaranteed the right to telepathy, that therefore credits were an expression of telepathy, and so unlimited sums of credits could be spent during a Blornaxian election to send out telepathic messages for or against any candidate one wishes, and the Blornaxian Assembly was no longer allowed to regulate spending on political telepathy.

Most Blornaxians thought this was probably a bad idea. Most did not like it. But, nevertheless, it came to pass and became the law of the land. Blornaxians soon went back to arguing about other issues and largely forgot all about it.

What few Blornaxians noticed was that an odd shift in power on Blornax had already begun. Three years after the High Court's decree, the first credit bleenionaire was appointed Minister of Commerce by the Chancellor. Blornaxians use an odd base 11 number system, and ut doesn't quite translate, but suffice it to say that bleen is quite a large sum. Only a hundred or so families on all of Blornax were bleenionaires. And in all of Blornaxian history, even adjusting credits for inflation, no bleenionaires have ever served as Minister before.

But, as I said, most Blornaxians didn't stop to notice. Normal Blornaxians were just tired and stressed. They were constantly bombarded with more and more telepathic messages, from Blornax and beyond. Most were just advertising products. But some clever folks skilled in telepathic technology were probing ever deeper into the minds of Blornaxians, working to find out intimate details that might be used to nudge their behavior through future telepathic messages timed just right.

And in any event, it seemed most Blornaxians had to work harder and harder and go to school longer and longer just to stay out of the slums. Things were not dire for Blornaxians. They still were largely comfortable by galactic standards. But the trade rules had been repeatedly changed over the last few starspins in ways that disadvantaged most Blornaxians, but which led to large windfalls for the hundred bleenionaires families.

Bleenionaires meanwhile had been buying up more and more of the telepathic networks. Everyone knew this, but most Blornaxians didn't pay it much mind. After all, as long as the telepathic broadcasts were still there, who cared if the owner of them was a bleenionaire or a slevionaire or someone with even lesser means? A transmission is a transmission, right?

And so, obvious and in plain sight as it occurred, nobody stopped to question what was happening when the first bleenionaire was elected Chancellor just three years after the first bleenionaire had been appointed Minister of Commerce. And this new Chancellor appointed members of five other bleenionaire families as Ministers.

Soon other bleenionaire families on Blornax took notice. One of them moved immediately to try and remove the Chancellor. Several others sent telepathic messages across Blornax stating their intentions to run against the Chancellor in 2120. Nine short starspins after the High Court of Blornax ruled that credits were telepathy, the separation of wealth and political power on Blornax had all but totally disappeared.

But still, few Blornaxians noticed. Few cared. A good chunk griped that the bleenionaires had raided the Blornaxian Treasury and that life was getting harder for most Blornaxians. But somehow few grasped the gravity of bleenionaires suddenly for the first time in Blornaxian history actively capturing political office and bleenionaire families suddenly spending enormous quantities of credits on telepathy as they started fighting amongst themselves for political power.

See, the bleenionaires had long been the heads of the most lucrative trade routes, and they knew a thing or two about how far they could push negotiations. They figured that they had already squeezed the average Blornaxian about as hard as they could, at least while the Blornaxian Republic still stood. And they knew they raided the Blornaxian Treasury, in fact, it was empty and they had been borrowing on the planet's credit to maintain their lavish lifestyles. And no new trade routes had been discovered in tens of starspins. If the bleenionaire families wanted their fortunes to grow, and most did, the obvious next step was to capture existing trade routes from rival bleenionaire families. Soon bleenionaire families were investing heavily in starships and mercenaries along with telepathy. They were digging in for the long war, and preparing to turn on each other. The Blornaxian Republic had turned into a mere appendage for their own affairs.

Which brings us to the Starspin 3127...

[vt]

Re: Our Next President?

Here's how Shultz or some other independent could win the Presidency:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...=.79806404d861

[Chris Coles]

Re: Our Next President?

Gotta pick? Must pick? Can't be "neutral?"

Imagine a voter turnout of 15%. A big FU from the people. No mandate. What then?

Perfect!

[Chris Coles]

Re: Our Next President?

What ideas? What problems?

We can't even agree on what facts are.

There's no way to innovate out of those loggerheads.

We'd first have to agree that there are problems. We'd then have to agree on what those problems are. We'd then have to agree on acting to solve them. And that's all before we even get to the point of discussing solutions.
.
I don't see it happening. People are just gonna get more polarized until one vision or another comes to fruition. If we get to the 2030s it seems either we'll have no corporate or estate or cap gains taxes, or we'll have universal healthcare and affordable college and more progressive taxes. Either way, the deficit is going towards 150% of GDP. Those are the choices I see.

I don't see a middle ground. The status quo is not a stable state. It's like civil unions, they seemed like a good compromise between gay marriage and no gay marriage, but the middle was actually an untenable position that couldn't last. Doing nothing at this point and clinging to the status quo will create change just as fast as doing something.

There are folks who labeled Uncle Sam a beast, and they set out to starve him. They did a pretty bang up job too. Now he's hungry. Either they'll push until the job is done and they've starved him out, or he'll feast. Either way, I expect the next 10 years to be much more interesting than the last.

Yesterday I asked Finster Market Discussion - Page 27 if he had read the latest speech by the FED Chairman Powell Federal Reserve Board - Recent Economic Developments and Longer-Term Challenges as I believe that there is an underlying debate going on and that this speech confirms that.

Finster, as you will no doubt remember, I had placed up here on iTulip a debate about a possible use of the FED $ stash as http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...-Roots-Economy and, that I did also send a copy to Powell at the FED, as also a copy to the White House. Not sure if you noticed, but this speech by Powell in New York February 28th Federal Reserve Board - Recent Economic Developments and Longer-Term Challenges seems to point towards his taking some of my underlying points on board, particularly about the possibility of the unemployment figures being too good to be true. Again, he seems to be asking for further political guidance, beyond their normal remit. I would welcome your viewpoint. Chris.

[Techdread]

Re: Our Next President?

i really appreciate the level-headed way you deal with this stuff, dcarrigg. i'm always happy to read your posts and writing less myself helps control my blood pressure.

+1

[Polish_Silver]

med costs

At least 3 solutions:

Fed or state governements open up clinics available to the public at cost.

Price transparency and real choice, both at individual level and for insurance companies

End the model of "fee for service" make it more like "fixed salary for so many patients"

Direct government control of prices (japan)


A big mystery is why a major insurer does not create a vertically integrated system and offer care at 1/10 the price,
and gain market share. Kaiser is the closest.

[Polish_Silver]

Stuck with Repocrats !

Yada, yada.

Paint anyone who disagrees with a left wing agenda as a heartless person who wants to deny health care and education to little children.

Bill Clinton was a centrist and his administration did well. Democrats and Republicans were both centrists before 2000.


As Woodsman said the left and right elites have no idea what they are doing and that their days a few. They will be replaced as independents with real innovative ideas to solve problems are voted into power and unite the nation.

The electoral system prevents independents from getting into office. How can an independent get a plurality in a congressional district?

Until we have proportional representation, things will not change, because new parties do not have a chance. How can we get those
in power to change the system that keeps them in power?

[lakedaemonian]

Re: med costs

At least 3 solutions:

Fed or state governements open up clinics available to the public at cost.

Price transparency and real choice, both at individual level and for insurance companies

End the model of "fee for service" make it more like "fixed salary for so many patients"

Direct government control of prices (japan)


A big mystery is why a major insurer does not create a vertically integrated system and offer care at 1/10 the price,
and gain market share. Kaiser is the closest.

Check out Circle Medical.

Disclosure: we are investors

Circle Medical are enhancing the primary care medical experience leveraging technology(genuine AI: Doctor/Machine hybrid utilisation) combined with reduced fixed infrastructure costs.

Small(Bay Area only), but very fast growing, and with far higher margins compared with traditional primary care.

Worth keeping an eye on.

[rjwjr]

Re: med costs

Warren is a lightweight. I read her 2003 book (The Two Income Trap) and found it informative but, lacking in solutions that resonated with me. Just because she can identify some issues doesn't mean she knows how to solve them. Add in the lack of charisma and recent rookie mistakes (heritage, beer thingy) and she fails the heavy-weight test. We have 350million+ people from which to choose. We can do better than Warren. Much better.

That being said, rather than trying to identify the best third party solution/candidate, my opinion is that our efforts would have the greatest potential impact coupled with the greatest potential chance of becoming reality if we created a groundswell of support for; 1] greater states rights (less federal power) and 2] senate & congressional term limits. All of this federal power is exacerbating the political divide while simultaneously increasing the stakes. Dilute/diffuse the problem by marginalizing the players and spreading the power. Instead of rallying behind finding a candidate, let's rally around finding someone to lead us toward getting some constitutional amendments on a federal ballot.

And, that being said, I personally don't see why any logical individual would ever vote for a progressive/liberal/democratic candidate for president when comparing the current state of affairs in California, New York, Illinois versus those in South Dakota, Texas, Tennessee. I'm registered Non-Party Affiliated because I hate the politics on both sides, but hey, conservative leaders have done a better job state-by-state in the metrics that make sense to me. It's about as black & white as it gets.

And, before you pigeon-hole me as a biased conservative, I'm also a pro-choice (although it's a horrible choice to be faced with), pro-gay marriage (although straight), atheist (although I respect most God-fearing individuals for their moral compass & compassion toward others). I think for myself and methinks conservatives have proven better public leaders than have progressives.

It's science

[davidstvz]

Re: med costs

Warren wants to dissolve the electoral college. Any Warren supporters having second thoughts yet?

[dcarrigg]

Re: med costs

Warren wants to dissolve the electoral college. Any Warren supporters having second thoughts yet?

Haven't really had time to look into it in depth yet. But isn't she talking about the national popular vote compact? That plan has been around for years. Fwiw, I think even if it worked, it'd work once and only once than states would crash out of it. But there's nothing totally strange or illegal about it. No constitutional restrictions on how states choose to assign electoral college delegates. Maine and Nebraska are relevant examples.

That said, looks like she's not handling the press on it well.

[jk]

Re: med costs

the electoral college, and the non-population-based number of senators for each state were devised to convince smaller and less populous states to sign onto the constitution and join the UNITED states. here we are now, about - what- 230 years later still living with that deal. i don't see it going away: there are too many states which are beneficiaries, certainly too many to allow an amendment to the constitution, and even too many to get the national popular vote compact.

in a way, i can see a silver lining to these realities. ultimately they will FORCE the different political tribes to deal with one another. wasn't that the idea in creating the UNITED states?

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: med costs

the electoral college, and the non-population-based number of senators for each state were devised to convince smaller and less populous states to sign onto the constitution and join the UNITED states. here we are now, about - what- 230 years later still living with that deal. i don't see it going away: there are too many states which are beneficiaries, certainly too many to allow an amendment to the constitution, and even too many to get the national popular vote compact.

in a way, i can see a silver lining to these realities. ultimately they will FORCE the different political tribes to deal with one another. wasn't that the idea in creating the UNITED states?

All good points.
Senators representing just 25% of the US population have a veto proof 60 votes that can defeat Senators representing the other 75% of Americans.

These 62 senators represent about one-fourth of the people in the United States.