Our Next President?

[jk]

Re: Our Next President?

That an extraordinarily good question. At first glance it seems impossible. Maybe a total of account balances for a person could be reported by banks and brokerages, but even that gets dicey for the shifting values of stocks and bonds. Real estate, fine collectibles, trust balances -fuhgetaboutit.

rmd's from ira's are based on the balances in e.g. brokerage accounts on 12/31 of each prior year. not hard.
real estate- the town i live in doesn't seem to have a problem putting a value on my house and charging property tax based on that value
fine collectibles are usually insured, and the insurance company and purchaser must see eye to eye on the values in the policies.
trust balances are no different than any other balances. the question is who is the beneficiary and what is their income
and worth.

re fraud- in the [unlikely i think] even that warren becomes president and the [even more unlikely] event she can pass a wealth tax, my hunch is that she will fund the irs at much higher levels, and audits will become more frequent for big money earners and holders.

[dcarrigg]

Re: Our Next President?

It's not impossible, but it makes me question whether this is really the best approach to achieve the desired goal. It certainly seems like it would be very expensive and create a huge incentive for hard to discover fraud.

Do you guys not have personal property appraisals in Ohio? It's pretty typical in New England for all personal property to be taxed, except a short list of what's exempted. Here are the Mass rules. Between the IRS calculating net worth for estate taxes and the states and towns assessing personal property values for property taxes, it seems like it shouldn't be all that expensive or difficult to me. Whether it's the best approach might be debated. But it's not like the feds couldn't ask the states and munis for the data even if they just wanted to spot audit. If it's already happening in California and the northeast, it has to already cover a bunch of spots the $50M+ crowd tends to keep fancy homes, no?

[Slimprofits]

Re: Our Next President?

CNN and MSNBC LOVE Kamala Harris

Kamala is the candidate of choice for the the "establishment Dems."

Her line to win the nomination on Bovada has dropped from +450 to +400.

They also have Beto at +400. Beto has no chance, IMO.

The Dems have made it clear that they are the party of women and people of color.

They won't be nominating Beto, Biden or Bernie or Howard Schultz or any other white guys for quite some time.

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: Our Next President?

Then surely, the answer to the overall problem ought to be entirely solved through the simple mechanism of good old fashioned competition? It is the lack of competition from competitive investment that lies at the heart of your healthcare problem. Nothing to do with the existing system, simply the lack of the ability to effectively compete.!

It's awfully hard to compare two or three health insurance policies. People like me just cannot understand all the details and jargon, plus we don't know what future medical services we might need. I could save money with a plan that omits coverage for dialysis, but what happens if I buy that one and then my kidneys fail? Every company tries to make it's skimpy low quality product look as good as the super deluxe premium product. With a toaster I can understand and see the differences. Not so much for the coverage limits on organ transplants and the related therapies to avoid rejection.
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[DSpencer]

Re: Our Next President?

That an extraordinarily good question. At first glance it seems impossible. Maybe a total of account balances for a person could be reported by banks and brokerages, but even that gets dicey for the shifting values of stocks and bonds. Real estate, fine collectibles, trust balances -fuhgetaboutit.

It's not impossible, but it makes me question whether this is really the best approach to achieve the desired goal. It certainly seems like it would be very expensive and create a huge incentive for hard to discover fraud.

[DSpencer]

Re: Our Next President?

ok, candidates talking about national debt. the deficit. oh noes! I alluded to it earlier, maybe it should be a separate thread, but can we talk about Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)? I've drank of the koolaid, and now all talk of national debt makes my eyes roll.

Federal debt. Who is it owed to? how is it paid? what are federal taxes for?

This article goes into the thinking driving Bernie and AOC's views on spending, and the progressive caucus are correspondingly getting increasingly annoyed with the centrist camp of paygo rules and narrative framing of the federal deficit.
https://www.counterpunch.org/2018/01...netary-theory/

Why, exactly, can we not deficit spend to marshall real resources to provide medicare for all, and re-tool our infrastructure, but we can spend on the military just fine? Deficit spending only matters in as much as it leads to inflation in the sector you are spending in, at least according to MMT. Republicans seem to get this, but keep it on the down low.

You won't get any argument from me that we spend too much on the military, but that's somewhat beside the point as it relates to MMT. The problem with MMT is the connection between deficit spending and "real resources".

Reading your comment and that link, my sense is that inflation is seen as some kind of minor pitfall that's easily avoided as opposed to the obvious and existential threat that it is. Once you realize that the seemingly magical ability to pay for anything in any amount promised by MMT is constrained by the necessity of managing inflation, there's really nothing much left to get excited about. The question of the legitimacy of the Fed is a good one, but that's really a separate question from: "can't we just print the money to fund national healthcare"?

In the end, the seemingly profound revelations of MMT are already known by anyone who has a rough understanding of the monetary system. Yes, the government can create money. However, the government cannot create gasoline, bread, housing, medical services, etc. in the same way as numbers in a computer. Once you realize that is what actually needs to be created for the utopian vision to succeed, the fantasy dies.

It's not like this hasn't been tried. History is littered with horror stories of hyperinflation. Venezuela is imploding right before our very eyes.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-46999668

[Chris Coles]

Re: Our Next President?

As to US healthcare costs, we are dancing around the central issue, unwilling to speak it directly. To get costs down, lots of people in the healthcare industry need to be fired, and many others need a pay cut. Who's pay will we cut, and who will we fire? If we don't do that costs will stay high. In other nations they've zeroed out all costs and profits for health insurance companies, and for the clerks working insurance paperwork on the provider side. That's a big slice of the pie chart that stays in the customer's pocket.

Then surely, the answer to the overall problem ought to be entirely solved through the simple mechanism of good old fashioned competition? It is the lack of competition from competitive investment that lies at the heart of your healthcare problem. Nothing to do with the existing system, simply the lack of the ability to effectively compete.!

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: Our Next President?

...How is it determined how much money a person has? Do they have to pay for a yearly appraisal of all their "yachts and jewelry and fine arts"?...

That an extraordinarily good question. At first glance it seems impossible. Maybe a total of account balances for a person could be reported by banks and brokerages, but even that gets dicey for the shifting values of stocks and bonds. Real estate, fine collectibles, trust balances -fuhgetaboutit.

[dcarrigg]

Re: Our Next President?

I'm not 100% sure the details of this particular plan. But it seems to me the IRS already does some form of this assessment, at least for estate taxes. I suppose the process would have to be streamlined somewhat to do it annually for a larger group of people. I imagine whatever they came up with would look like a somewhat simplified version of Form 706. I figure if you're over the $50 million threshold, you probably have a pretty good CPA who's capable of figuring all this stuff out anyways. You pretty much have to be somewhat on top of it if you're bequeathing over $11 million as it stands now.

[DSpencer]

Re: Our Next President?

Straight from the horse's mouth:

"The ultra-rich have rigged our economy & rigged our tax rules. We need structural change. That’s why I’m proposing something brand-new: An annual wealth tax on the tippy-top 0.1%. We’d get $3 trillion in new revenue to invest in rebuilding the middle-class. Let’s make it happen."

https://twitter.com/ewarren/status/1...946817/video/1

So in the example from her video the heir who has $500,000,000 is making $50,000 per year? I suppose it's possible, but not very likely.

How is it determined how much money a person has? Do they have to pay for a yearly appraisal of all their "yachts and jewelry and fine arts"?

I do appreciate that this at least uses the .1% instead of the standard "1%". Many people in the 1% are still essentially wage-earners, albeit high income ones. A doctor or lawyer making $500k with a few million net worth is doing great, but not really comparable to someone worth $50 million, let alone $500 million. I think it was a mistake to vilify the 1% as if they were a homogenous group of hedge fund managers and fortune 500 CEOs.

[dcarrigg]

Re: Our Next President?

Wasn't meant to be argumentative. Just pointing out that I think you're right. It's a make-work scheme. For every manufacturing job lost the US has gained a healthcare job. Lots are in marketing and billing and other nonsense that only exists because we've overcomplicated things and abstracted too far away from the plain truth: That there's functionally a monopoly of geography with most healthcare needs, and a layer of competition about who gets to middleman the price structure at that monopoly point isn't going to create real competition in care delivery. Nobody's shopping around from the back of an ambulance. Nobody's getting to make the call to wait for an in-network anesthesiologist for their emergency surgery. All the wild layers of private incentives and competition in the world aren't going to change the facts on the ground.

I mean, think about it this way: As a nation we're blowing hundreds of billions advertising and marketing schemes for various healthcare products and services in an attempt to boost sales. At the same time, we're also blowing hundreds of billions on copays and deductibles expressly designed to dis-incentivize overconsumption of healthcare products and services. I'd literally rather give Trump triple the money he wants for his wall just to adorn the goddamned thing in gold leaf than continue this charade. America will survive without 700 commercials per day telling you to ask your doctor about Xarelto, or $12,000 deductibles for spending a couple hours in the ER.

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: Our Next President?

...nobody feels bad for electronics assemblers whose jobs get automated. Hell, people gleefully threaten fast food workers picketing for a higher wage with automation. But I'm supposed to care that the local Blue Cross marketing executive might no longer make half a million per year at a non-profit by jacking up my deductibles?...

You misunderstand me. The US seems to be going to great lengths to keep them rolling in the dough, and it may be time to stop. When the topic comes up we invariably hear from our conservative friends how the magical forces of the free market can somehow make healthcare cheaper and better if we would just give the insurance companies everything they want - selling polices across state lines with no regulation, and increased ability to sell entirely worthless polices for half the price of real insurance. There is no place in the world now where a fully private, for-profit health insurance system delivers excellent care for most people at a low price.

[dcarrigg]

Re: Our Next President?

I spoke at length with a gent from Canada who owns a construction company. He loves their national healthcare for two practical reasons. First, he spends zero time and effort on health insurance for his employees. Second, he does not worry his employees will be hired away by competitors due to differences in health plans. He cold not say enough good things about the whole system, both as a business owner and as an individual healthcare consumer.

As to US healthcare costs, we are dancing around the central issue, unwilling to speak it directly. To get costs down, lots of people in the healthcare industry need to be fired, and many others need a pay cut. Who's pay will we cut, and who will we fire? If we don't do that costs will stay high. In other nations they've zeroed out all costs and profits for health insurance companies, and for the clerks working insurance paperwork on the provider side. That's a big slice of the pie chart that stays in the customer's pocket.

Sure. But wouldn't anything they do be more productive and more moral than making a living doing busy work just for the sake of gouging the sick?

I mean, nobody feels bad for electronics assemblers whose jobs get automated. Hell, people gleefully threaten fast food workers picketing for a higher wage with automation. But I'm supposed to care that the local Blue Cross marketing executive might no longer make half a million per year at a non-profit by jacking up my deductibles?

If we're going to have make-work schemes, wouldn't it be better to just use tax money to pay them to dig a hole and fill it in again rather than have them extract their wages from cancer patients under duress?

[jk]

Re: Our Next President?

I spoke at length with a gent from Canada who owns a construction company. He loves their national healthcare for two practical reasons. First, he spends zero time and effort on health insurance for his employees. Second, he does not worry his employees will be hired away by competitors due to differences in health plans. He cold not say enough good things about the whole system, both as a business owner and as an individual healthcare consumer.

As to US healthcare costs, we are dancing around the central issue, unwilling to speak it directly. To get costs down, lots of people in the healthcare industry need to be fired, and many others need a pay cut. Who's pay will we cut, and who will we fire? If we don't do that costs will stay high. In other nations they've zeroed out all costs and profits for health insurance companies, and for the clerks working insurance paperwork on the provider side. That's a big slice of the pie chart that stays in the customer's pocket.

i believe the affordable care act said that medical losses [i.e. actual spending on medical care] couldn't be less than 80% of premiums collected. so the remaining 20% includes admin costs, profits, exec bonuses, etc. otoh, medicare iirc has admin costs around 2%. that's a lot of savings. further, if we repeal the provision of medicare part d which forbids medicare from negotiating drug prices, there can be major savings.

so the immediate losers are health insurance execs, health insurance staff in general, and the stockholders and to some degree execs of big pharma. some other big pharma staff might be cut- drug reps? some of the bogus research brand extension personnel?

in general, between 18% savings on the admin costs and savings on drug costs i have little doubt you can save 30% immediately.

then, too, medicare fees for docs are distinctly lower than private insurance fees. docs will take a hit, but otoh they won't have to hire as many back office staff to make sure the insurance companies pay them properly, so their overhead will go down. this will represent further system-wide savings, say 10% immediately. so now we've healthcare spending down 40% and we've just started and further, haven't changed any of the services being delivered.

these are just first thoughts off the top of my head.

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: Our Next President?

we're already spending a ton of money on less than world-class care. we don't need to spend more than we're spending, we need to spend it smarter. so there's no extra spending needed. it's just a question of how the money goes 'round. the reason business owners oppose universal healthcare is that they figure it means they're going to have to pay higher taxes. but the reality is it makes u.s. businesses more competitive. a canadian company doesn't have to worry about funding its healthcare. a u.s. company does. there is no problem in paying for universal healthcare, the only problem is how to distribute the pain of paying for it.

I spoke at length with a gent from Canada who owns a construction company. He loves their national healthcare for two practical reasons. First, he spends zero time and effort on health insurance for his employees. Second, he does not worry his employees will be hired away by competitors due to differences in health plans. He cold not say enough good things about the whole system, both as a business owner and as an individual healthcare consumer.

As to US healthcare costs, we are dancing around the central issue, unwilling to speak it directly. To get costs down, lots of people in the healthcare industry need to be fired, and many others need a pay cut. Who's pay will we cut, and who will we fire? If we don't do that costs will stay high. In other nations they've zeroed out all costs and profits for health insurance companies, and for the clerks working insurance paperwork on the provider side. That's a big slice of the pie chart that stays in the customer's pocket.