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Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen
There is a classic book, "When to Sell" by Justin Mamis first published in 1977.
Wall Street's conflicted 100 buy recommendations for just one sell one was what investors had to rely on. It was always buy, or buy and hold.
Itulip is a "When to Sell" site and has delivered great value.
I recall 4 key calls:
Sell stocks in March, 2000. Buy long term treasuries with proceeds of this sale.
Buy gold at about $250 in 2001.
Sell stocks in December, 2007
Sell silver in 2011.
The sell stocks in 2000 and 2007 were perfect, as was buy long term bonds in 2000, and gold in 2001.
Sell silver in April 2011 was also key. Gold and silver generally move together. Since gold is more conservative than silver, a buy call on silver is not necessary.
If I own gold in an IRA, I don't worry about taxes. However EJ has stated that for taxable investors there is a capital gains tax on trying to sell an asset.
If you sell those taxes reduce capital and how can you tell when to get back in during uncertain times.
There was one other minor but profitable call in February, 2014. EJ clearly implied that the 10 year treasury yield could go down from 3% to as low as 1.6%.
Everyone else said rates would go up. EJ also warned that stocks might have problems.
While stocks did go up a bit in 2014, the 10 year treasury did almost twice as good! Stocks then had a difficult year in 2015, while long term bonds
ultimately reached 1.6% in 2016. EJ then warned that yields might go up at least a small amount. The long term bull in bonds was clearly at risk, but
what a 35 year ride!
Tesla was a high risk situation, wise to avoid.
I can get buy recommendations from many sources. If I'm looking at my nest egg I want to grow it, but not lose it. When to sell is
invaluable. EJ has provided that on a risk, and especially risk adjusted basis.
As far as buy recommendations you miss the point there too. EJ told you not only when to sell, but how far it would go down.
When those targets were reached why didn't you buy? You had the map! I don't need someone to hold my hand or waste my time
when there is nothing to add. EJ did answer questions from time to time.
The nitpicks are much to do with nothing, and show little understanding of the purpose of itulip. An early warning system only when
necessary is all that is needed.
The concise explanation of what is happening and why is also invaluable.
I look forward to more comment when appropriate from EJ. For now with the Banksters calling for a recession it's helpful
to understand what is really happening to the global economy. There will also be a sell recommendation at some point and I
want to be here when it happens. But I also appreciate the information that the current uptrend may well continue for possibly
another 2 to 4 years as I interpret it.
There is a classic book, "When to Sell" by Justin Mamis first published in 1977.
Wall Street's conflicted 100 buy recommendations for just one sell one was what investors had to rely on. It was always buy, or buy and hold.
Itulip is a "When to Sell" site and has delivered great value.
I recall 4 key calls:
Sell stocks in March, 2000. Buy long term treasuries with proceeds of this sale.
Buy gold at about $250 in 2001.
Sell stocks in December, 2007
Sell silver in 2011.
The sell stocks in 2000 and 2007 were perfect, as was buy long term bonds in 2000, and gold in 2001.
Sell silver in April 2011 was also key. Gold and silver generally move together. Since gold is more conservative than silver, a buy call on silver is not necessary.
If I own gold in an IRA, I don't worry about taxes. However EJ has stated that for taxable investors there is a capital gains tax on trying to sell an asset.
If you sell those taxes reduce capital and how can you tell when to get back in during uncertain times.
There was one other minor but profitable call in February, 2014. EJ clearly implied that the 10 year treasury yield could go down from 3% to as low as 1.6%.
Everyone else said rates would go up. EJ also warned that stocks might have problems.
While stocks did go up a bit in 2014, the 10 year treasury did almost twice as good! Stocks then had a difficult year in 2015, while long term bonds
ultimately reached 1.6% in 2016. EJ then warned that yields might go up at least a small amount. The long term bull in bonds was clearly at risk, but
what a 35 year ride!
Tesla was a high risk situation, wise to avoid.
I can get buy recommendations from many sources. If I'm looking at my nest egg I want to grow it, but not lose it. When to sell is
invaluable. EJ has provided that on a risk, and especially risk adjusted basis.
As far as buy recommendations you miss the point there too. EJ told you not only when to sell, but how far it would go down.
When those targets were reached why didn't you buy? You had the map! I don't need someone to hold my hand or waste my time
when there is nothing to add. EJ did answer questions from time to time.
The nitpicks are much to do with nothing, and show little understanding of the purpose of itulip. An early warning system only when
necessary is all that is needed.
The concise explanation of what is happening and why is also invaluable.
I look forward to more comment when appropriate from EJ. For now with the Banksters calling for a recession it's helpful
to understand what is really happening to the global economy. There will also be a sell recommendation at some point and I
want to be here when it happens. But I also appreciate the information that the current uptrend may well continue for possibly
another 2 to 4 years as I interpret it.
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