Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

[jk]

Re: EJ’s Secret Message

The primary political division at the moment are international capitalists that have benefitted from USD imperialism and domestic industry that has been sidelined due to an overvalued dollar since the 1970s. The rampant shuttering of hedge funds is a great example of all of this. So too is the rise of manufacturing.

In the near-term I believe the following to be true:
1) Decline in value of the USD versus global commodities, volatility versus other currencies.

i think the dollar may rise as financial conditions tighten in the short term. longer term the $100trillion or more of off-balance sheet liabilities intrinsic in social security, medicare and medicaid will force the fed to print and the usd to decline. this decline will be good for u.s. exports.

2) A formalized exchange of US denominated sovereign debt with a UN controlled reserve currency unit, tied to vast domestic infrastructure spending.

i cannot share your faith in the un. it has never been much more than a talking shop and it's been a long time since anyone of power paid any attention to the doings there. the idea that national elites would cede such power to that rube goldberg construction is risible.

3) Increased domestic manufacturing to meet domestic demand as Chinese produced goods become too expensive. Due to insufficient infrastructure spending, there will be a lag for this to meet demand, with investment opportunities.

the world has entered a phase of deglobalisation. the untangling of supply chains is not just about trade balances, it is very much about the "china 2025" plan expressing china's ambition to dominate tech in ai, quantum computing. and i think there's a 3rd, but i can't recall it off hand. china is a rising power threatening the established hegemon. we will be lucky to avoid thucydides trap and not have a war.

4) The US has positioned itself as the world's primary holder of oil and natural gas. In time, these natural resources will be factored into the exchange rate calculations of the coming Bancor or equivalent. In the long-term, gas will become more expensive and the continued migration to cities will present investment opportunities in real estate.

depletion rates on fracked wells is turning out to be much higher than the estimates when the drillers went to the markets to raise cash. thus the downgrade of a lot of energy-related paper.

5) The banking system will be radically reformed at some point. Ceding monetary sovereignty to the UN will force both the government and banks to limit their money creation based on variables factored into the Bancor valuation. Banking will function much more like libertarian propaganda describes, as it was created in the early post-war era when it was expected the World Bank and IMF would actually function as intended. Banks and governments will take out "loans" from som UN authority, which will limit their money creation.

un= not going to happen. any global monetary authority with real power = not going to happen except post a crisis of unimaginable severity.

6) The biggest demand driver for monetary expansion is population growth. You can expect the US to have an immigration policy similar to most other countries of the world. Russian and China will not tolerate unlimited immigration in the US as it allows for an unfair devaluation. Many industries rely on slave labor from illegal immigrants, and this will have broad structural effects.

i think the biggest driver to u.s. monetary expansion is the wave of baby boomer entitlements that has already started to hit.

7) The ultimate goal of this monetary system is to break up the world into "smaller units of government" as Ron Paultard constantly says. In the future, we will have many smaller, autonomous states that have their own language, customs, and even theocratic controls, but they will not be monetarily sovereign. It is my opinion that the canary in the coal mine is Catalonia. When Catalonia is "independent", the Bancor will be coming your way.

as another member just replied, "tell that to the eu." otoh i could see germany withdrawing from the ez, likely accompanied by the netherlands, etc.

8) investment advice: Invest in businesses if you can. Buy real estate local to you. If you must buy stocks, buy real, domestic industries. Treasuries are safe, and will in time be issued in Bancors or similar, as China has done with SDRs.

first part i agree with. treasuries are safe short term, then will be severely impaired by monetary expansion when the fed starts printing again.

9) My belief is that gold possession and forex trading will be banned within the next 10 years.

possible. you never know what the people with power might try to pull off. otoh you didn't specify a jurisdiction. if you mean globally, that would mean the people of real power denying themselves such ownership. ain't gonna happen.

10) My belief is that Trump is a Manchurian candidate, like Nixon. Both are unlikable, plausibly corrupt, and distract the masses from the titanic monetary changes happening today. If Trump is impeached, all bets are off in the short term.

unfortunately, i don't think trump is a manchurian candidate, i think he is an expression of severe sociological and economic pathology in the u.s. the winners from globalization and losers from globalization have yet to find common ground.

btw, oh Lord, had you even heard of the bancor 10 years ago? just askin'

[Chris Coles]

Re: EJ’s Secret Message

btw, oh Lord, had you even heard of the bancor 10 years ago? just askin'

Hey! jk, is that the very first time you have used a capital letter here? Just asking

[dcarrigg]

Re: EJ’s Secret Message

Education is a monopoly of teacher unions allied with captive politicians in most communities.

Competition and innovation lowers costs. Anti competitive regulation, rules, and practice can be found not only in government but in corporations,
industry groups, and local business associations.

Universal education is a public good, as is universal literacy. Arguments to inject profit and price competition into K-12 education are so fundamentally antithetical to the American principles set forth by John Winthrop in A Model of Christian Charity in 1630 before founding Massachusetts Bay Colony that I can hardly think of a more surefire way to subvert the City upon a Hill until it becomes a rotten, corrupted slum of miserable masses ruled by a handful greedy and ruthless Lords. Basically, the whole reason they left to found the colony in the first place.

I'm not saying public ed has no problems. I'm not that naive. But I am saying that the counterfactual is worse. It has been tried. The Massachusetts General Court required towns over 50 people to build a free public school by law back in 1647. Mississippi didn't get universal public education on the books until 1914, the very last state to do so. It's why even a hundred years later folks in Alabama say "Thank God for Mississppi!"

[Lord_Keynes]

Re: EJ’s Secret Message

So you are not an Englishman, and thus I have to admit my threat is meaningless. Then I thought you might be Trump himself, but that seems improbable from your last post regarding him.

The Roman empire collapsed from exactly the same process of degradation of the coin.

Edward Gibbon, probably one of the best your people have ever brought to the table of knowledge, disagrees with you.

Rome did not even use precious metals for currency until the late Republic when the Empire was born. One of the major reasons they went to war against Carthage was due to their use of gold for foreign exchange, which Romans did not have. The empire was born of iron and will, and if you believe Gibbon, died due to lack of will.

Money becomes worthless not because metal fetishists no longer like metal, or because the metallic mixture changes, but that the power that issued that coin ceases to have true political power, in the Roman sense of auctoritas and imperium.

But no, I am certainly not Trump nor a Trump supporter. But his presidency is a harbinger of things to come.

[Lord_Keynes]

Re: EJ’s Secret Message

Universal education is a public good, as is universal literacy. Arguments to inject profit and price competition into K-12 education are so fundamentally antithetical to the American principles set forth by John Winthrop in A Model of Christian Charity in 1630 before founding Massachusetts Bay Colony that I can hardly think of a more surefire way to subvert the City upon a Hill until it becomes a rotten, corrupted slum of miserable masses ruled by a handful greedy and ruthless Lords. Basically, the whole reason they left to found the colony in the first place.

I'm not saying public ed has no problems. I'm not that naive. But I am saying that the counterfactual is worse. It has been tried. The Massachusetts General Court required towns over 50 people to build a free public school by law back in 1647. Mississippi didn't get universal public education on the books until 1914, the very last state to do so. It's why even a hundred years later folks in Alabama say "Thank God for Mississppi!"

Whenever libertarianism is explored deeply enough, we see that it is at is core rotten and evil.

[vt]

Re: EJ’s Secret Message

Public education is essential. I went to public schools and support them completely.

Some competition is good, as with charter schools. However, there can be problems with charters just as with traditional schools depending on the local leadership.

The problem today is with the lack of fostering open minds and critical thinking. Just as schools in the 1950's may have been too far to the right in some areas, many tend too much to the left today.
Science is also being short changed on both sides of the political spectrum.

Cildren need to be taught the fundamentals and encouraged to question, and inquire towards ideas that interest them. But also to be skeptical of events until all facts are presented.

[Lord_Keynes]

Re: EJ’s Secret Message

i think the dollar may rise as financial conditions tighten in the short term. longer term the $100trillion or more of off-balance sheet liabilities intrinsic in social security, medicare and medicaid will force the fed to print and the usd to decline. this decline will be good for u.s. exports.

i cannot share your faith in the un. it has never been much more than a talking shop and it's been a long time since anyone of power paid any attention to the doings there. the idea that national elites would cede such power to that rube goldberg construction is risible.

This should be the primary political debate within the United States. You are absolutely right about "elites", but you are wrong to call them "national". The so-called 1% that controls the world's capital is an international clique. They are more at home with each other in Hong Kong or London or New York than with the peasants of their countries. The idealism of the Bancor can prevail, but it is just as likely that this new globalism and new Bretton Woods System will be corrupt from the beginning. It is impossible to tell at this time.

the world has entered a phase of deglobalisation. the untangling of supply chains is not just about trade balances, it is very much about the "china 2025" plan expressing china's ambition to dominate tech in ai, quantum computing. and i think there's a 3rd, but i can't recall it off hand. china is a rising power threatening the established hegemon. we will be lucky to avoid thucydides trap and not have a war.

Genetics would be the third. Do you think it was a coincidence that Nixon abandoned the Bretton Woods System 6 months before "opening up" China? I don't. The rulers of the major powers are not in conflict with each other to the extent most believe. As well, ultimately, industrial production will become entirely local, except for luxury goods. In many ways this is already happening - how many BMWs are made in Germany vs in the US? My Mercedes Benz C300 coupe was made in Alabama. The UN was founded not to deal specifically with Germany and Japan competitively devaluing their currencies, but to manage scarce natural resources.

Outside of opening the door to debate on the coming Bancor system, real, honest ethical discussion of genetics and genetic engineering is also essential. The world of Bladerunner is much closer than most realize.

depletion rates on fracked wells is turning out to be much higher than the estimates when the drillers went to the markets to raise cash. thus the downgrade of a lot of energy-related paper.

I do not disagree. Hence, why I point out that for the American consumer, urbanization will only increase out of economic necessity. The US control of global energy is a bargaining chip for the coming exchange rate debates, and it sure won't benefit the American peasants directly, other than providing economic stability.

un= not going to happen. any global monetary authority with real power = not going to happen except post a crisis of unimaginable severity.

All of Europe ceded their monetary sovereignty to the European Union. There are many examples.

i think the biggest driver to u.s. monetary expansion is the wave of baby boomer entitlements that has already started to hit.

Likely. This would arguably be part of the exchange rate calculations.

as another member just replied, "tell that to the eu." otoh i could see germany withdrawing from the ez, likely accompanied by the netherlands, etc.

Or, the Euro could turn into something like the Bancor, instead of the USD.

first part i agree with. treasuries are safe short term, then will be severely impaired by monetary expansion when the fed starts printing again.

As I believe I stated in another post, the federal reserve is effectively irrelevant when it comes to monetary expansion. 95% of all USD in existence were created as debt by banks. Very little money has been created by the Federal Government comparatively.

possible. you never know what the people with power might try to pull off. otoh you didn't specify a jurisdiction. if you mean globally, that would mean the people of real power denying themselves such ownership. ain't gonna happen.

I am focused exclusively on the US at this time. Sorry for that lack of clarification.

unfortunately, i don't think trump is a manchurian candidate, i think he is an expression of severe sociological and economic pathology in the u.s. the winners from globalization and losers from globalization have yet to find common ground.

btw, oh Lord, had you even heard of the bancor 10 years ago? just askin'

Why can't Trump be both? The art of politics is realizing it is all theater and appealing to your audience.

I did not hear of the Bancor until about this time 10 years ago. Until the 2008 financial crisis, I had not studied monetary policy/theory in any substantive capacity.

[Chris Coles]

Re: EJ’s Secret Message

Whenever libertarianism is explored deeply enough, we see that it is at is core rotten and evil.

Now we discover a little bit more about you. My Shorter Oxford English Dictionary shows Libertarianism as principles or doctrine of One who approves of or advocates liberty. So you are a classic feudalist; you want/intend to have complete control over everyone you come into contact with.

[Lord_Keynes]

Re: EJ’s Secret Message

7) The ultimate goal of this monetary system is to break up the world into "smaller units of government"

Tell that to the European Community.

One could speculate that the Euro was designed, from the beginning, to be unstable due to internal imbalance of payments. It is ripe to be "saved" by a Bancor type system. The major hurdle was overcome however - the European states ceded their monetary sovereignty. That is a far more difficult feat than implementing a new exchange rate system and replacing the Euro with something that actually works.

[Lord_Keynes]

Re: EJ’s Secret Message

Now we discover a little bit more about you. My Shorter Oxford English Dictionary shows Libertarianism as principles or doctrine of One who approves of or advocates liberty. So you are a classic feudalist; you want/intend to have complete control over everyone you come into contact with.

No, I am a Marxist. And I disagree with that definition.

[Chris Coles]

Re: EJ’s Secret Message

No, I am a Marxist. And I disagree with that definition.

Then please clarify the definition.

[Lord_Keynes]

Re: EJ’s Secret Message

Then please clarify the definition.

Libertarianism is a pseudo-political ideology based upon a number of irrational premises. For example:

1) The individual is more important than the state.
2) Inalienable rights exist
3) It is possible to be "free" from "force"

At its best, it is hopelessly utopian. At its worst, it appeals to the most base selfishness of people and to those with antisocial personality disorders in particular.

Such are the people who believe that healthcare and education are not things a modern, technologically advanced society should provide for the citizenry. Such are the people who use arguments that nominal numbers you call money, or your piles of gold, should determine who receives the benefits of civilization and who does not.

Ultimately, libertarianism has little to do with liberty. It is effectively reactive anti-modernism.

[jpatter666]

Re: EJ’s Secret Message

Libertarianism is a pseudo-political ideology based upon a number of irrational premises. For example:

1) The individual is more important than the state.
2) Inalienable rights exist
3) It is possible to be "free" from "force"

At its best, it is hopelessly utopian. At its worst, it appeals to the most base selfishness of people and to those with antisocial personality disorders in particular.

Such are the people who believe that healthcare and education are not things a modern, technologically advanced society should provide for the citizenry. Such are the people who use arguments that nominal numbers you call money, or your piles of gold, should determine who receives the benefits of civilization and who does not.

Ultimately, libertarianism has little to do with liberty. It is effectively reactive anti-modernism.

Yep, you're a Marxist all right.

[Lord_Keynes]

Re: EJ’s Secret Message

I should clarify that I did read Eric Janszen's book, which is what brought me to this site.

From the description:

Our problems, according to Janszen, are rooted in the flaws of the debt-driven FIRE economy (Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate). Applying the tried-and true methods of currency depreciation, tax and interest rate cuts, and fiscal stimulus will not work this time around. The only way out is to change our fundamental approach.

The solution is to use private and public monies to develop major for- profit transportation, energy, and communications infrastructure projects. These projects will spark employment and growth, reduce U.S. dependence on foreign energy and our foreign debt, and improve the efficiency of the economy for all growth industries in the twenty-first century.

Obviously, I disagree on some points. Currency depreciation is happening before our very eyes, and is in fact demanded by most. While I find the concept of for-profit infrastructure abhorrent, it is entirely likely this new Bretton Woods System will be sold to the peasants.

Whatever the case, infrastructure investment is central to how the global financial order is being reordered. In this sense, Janszen was among the first to introduce this concept to the world in recent times.

[sunpearl71]

Re: Economic Crisis Avoidance Deus ex Machina - Part I: Active Asset Price Inflation - Eric Janszen

Invested as well.

Having started at the base level, I've tripled my investment commitment after further research and evaluation of the opportunity and it's potential.

Very much looking forward to the interactions with EJ and a rejuvenated iTulip community!