How to make $301% in six years with low volatility

[c1ue]

Re: How to make $315% in six years with low volatility

my thought is that the housing bubble was intensive throughout the ango-saxon countries as well as spain, and a few other countries to a lesser extent.

My thoughts are in line with yours.

In the previous round of alt-energy bubble debates - I pointed out that nuclear power plants, bridges, and what not take years, sometimes decades to build.

Even with the wonderful new legislation - there is nothing stopping the greens from suing new nuclear construction to a halt.

I had a friend (RIP) who used to work as a nuclear construction engineer; he had lots of stories on how the industry was sued to death in the post 3 mile island era.

He also talked heavily about how construction of nuclear power plants is much more skill-intensive than normal construction - for obvious reasons.

I wonder how much of this expertise still remains after 20 years of inactivity. Enough for dozens of new plants? I suspect not.

[bill]

Re: How to make $315% in six years with low volatility

Even with the wonderful new legislation - there is nothing stopping the greens from suing new nuclear construction to a halt.

I had a friend (RIP) who used to work as a nuclear construction engineer; he had lots of stories on how the industry was sued to death in the post 3 mile island era.

He also talked heavily about how construction of nuclear power plants is much more skill-intensive than normal construction - for obvious reasons.

I wonder how much of this expertise still remains after 20 years of inactivity. Enough for dozens of new plants? I suspect not.

Don't fight the DOE
http://www.ne.doe.gov/newsroom/2007PRs/nePR122107.html
“These instructions enable sponsors of new nuclear power plants to begin the process of addressing certain barriers to building the nuclear generating capacity necessary to meet our Nation’s growing energy needs,” DOE Assistant Secretary for Nuclear Energy Dennis Spurgeon said. “Federal risk insurance provides an mechanism to spur construction of new nuclear power plants that will help power our economy with advanced technologies and confront global climate change.”

[Chris Coles]

Re: How to make $315% in six years with low volatility

My thoughts are in line with yours.

In the previous round of alt-energy bubble debates - I pointed out that nuclear power plants, bridges, and what not take years, sometimes decades to build.

Even with the wonderful new legislation - there is nothing stopping the greens from suing new nuclear construction to a halt.

I had a friend (RIP) who used to work as a nuclear construction engineer; he had lots of stories on how the industry was sued to death in the post 3 mile island era.

He also talked heavily about how construction of nuclear power plants is much more skill-intensive than normal construction - for obvious reasons.

I wonder how much of this expertise still remains after 20 years of inactivity. Enough for dozens of new plants? I suspect not.

The argument has been won. The French generate some 80% of their electricity from Nuclear and the UK buys a significant part of its needs from the French. Another summer Arctic Ice Melt like the last will finish off every critic and start a push to nuclear like we have never seen. Perhaps the real reason why the US is so against Iran and its nuclear ambitions is they do not want the competition when the big push to the new nuclear age gains momentum.

Forget the greens, they cannot answer the questions raised by the expanding energy needs of society if the ice melt continues.

[bill]

Re: How to make $315% in six years with low volatility

The argument has been won. The French generate some 80% of their electricity from Nuclear and the UK buys a significant part of its needs from the French. Another summer Arctic Ice Melt like the last will finish off every critic and start a push to nuclear like we have never seen. Perhaps the real reason why the US is so against Iran and its nuclear ambitions is they do not want the competition when the big push to the new nuclear age gains momentum.

The group:
http://www.gnep.energy.gov/

[GRG55]

Re: How to make $315% in six years with low volatility

My thoughts are in line with yours.

In the previous round of alt-energy bubble debates - I pointed out that nuclear power plants, bridges, and what not take years, sometimes decades to build.

Even with the wonderful new legislation - there is nothing stopping the greens from suing new nuclear construction to a halt.

I had a friend (RIP) who used to work as a nuclear construction engineer; he had lots of stories on how the industry was sued to death in the post 3 mile island era.

He also talked heavily about how construction of nuclear power plants is much more skill-intensive than normal construction - for obvious reasons.

I wonder how much of this expertise still remains after 20 years of inactivity. Enough for dozens of new plants? I suspect not.

France's Areva, Japan's Toshiba (Westinghouse) and GE seem to have thriving businesses as nuclear engineers, suppliers and constructors.

[rj1]

Re: How to make $315% in six years with low volatility

France's Areva, Japan's Toshiba (Westinghouse) and GE seem to have thriving businesses as nuclear engineers, suppliers and constructors.

I have a couple friends that work for Areva here in the States in Lynchburg, VA and Charlotte, NC. They seem to be a thriving company.

I know they're pushing for looser nuclear regulation. Enviros are fighting it. (I wish enviros would either make up their mind or what they want or just disconnect their houses from the electrical grid and go candles.)

[raja]

Re: How to make $315% in six years with low volatility

The first thought that came to my mind was the WPA.

...the largest New Deal agency, employing millions of people and affecting most every locality. ... The program built many public buildings, projects and roads, and operated large arts, drama, media and literacy projects. It fed children, redistributed food, clothing and housing. ... added up to the largest employment base in the country...

"Millions" of people sounds like a lot, but the actual figure was approximately 8.5 million. About 7 million Americans are currently unemployed. If unemployment doubled from 5% to 10%, an 8.5 million increase in jobs would only put half the people back to work.

The question for me remains: Can the U.S. economy be reflated by infrastructure and alt energy spending, or not.
I can see how a program like the WPA would put lots of out-of-work people back to work, but I wonder if building parks, roads and public structures, or creating alt energy projects, would have the same kind of reflation effect as the real estate bubble which has such a broad effect on the finances of consumers and on the economy as a whole?

[grapejelly]

Re: How to make $315% in six years with low volatility

"
The question for me remains: Can the U.S. economy be reflated by infrastructure and alt energy spending, or not.
I can see how a program like the WPA would put lots of out-of-work people back to work, but I wonder if building parks, roads and public structures, or creating alt energy projects, would have the same kind of reflation effect as the real estate bubble which has such a broad effect on the finances of consumers and on the economy as a whole?

we should look for massive public works and make-work projects that will continue making all of us poorer and poorer and prolong the recession/depression.


It is already a depression in places like Michigan....lots of places like that and more and more all the time.

[Spartacus]

Re: How to make $315% in six years with low volatility

It is already a depression in places like Michigan....lots of places like that and more and more all the time.

Which raises the question, how much worse will those places, already hit hard, get, when the entire country comes down from its current heights ?

IOW, it's the old "a rising tide lifts all boats" thing in reverse - will the ebbing tide lower Michigan and others much lower?

[Jay]

Re: How to make $301% in six years with low volatility

The form of the reflation will depend on whether a republican or democrat wins the presidential election. A WPA public works program would be impossible for the neocons to even think of. Imagine the Bushies paying someone to rake leaves in a park. They would instead push for corporations to do the work, using government funds, probably trying to privatize whatever they work on for fire sale prices. I doubt Hillary would go for a WPA program either, but who knows. Buffett always said that a toll bridge was one of the best investments you can make. I can see a lot more tolls out of this.

[c1ue]

Re: How to make $301% in six years with low volatility

Folks,

All this talk about the WPA is nice and all, but keep in mind that the US did not exit the Great Depression - at least in terms of unemployment - until World War II (1942).

From this perspective - the WPA and FDR's vaunted 'New Deal' did nothing to break the US out of the Great Depression...until the gold standard got toasted.

I put up a post some time ago talking about this: from Wiki (Boo Google)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economi...ion:_1929-1941

Table 2: Depression Data[2]
1929
1931
1933
1937
1938
1940
Real Gross National Product (GNP) 1
101.4
84.3
68.3
103.9
103.7
113.0
Consumer Price Index 2
122.5
108.7
92.4
102.7
99.4
100.2
Index of Industrial Production 2
109
75
69
112
89
126
Money Supply M2 ($ billions)
46.6
42.7
32.2
45.7
49.3
55.2
Exports ($ billions)
5.24
2.42
1.67
3.35
3.18
4.02
Unemployment (% of civilian work force)
3.1
16.1
25.2
13.8
16.5
13.9

[FRED]

Re: How to make $301% in six years with low volatility

Folks,

All this talk about the WPA is nice and all, but keep in mind that the US did not exit the Great Depression - at least in terms of unemployment - until World War II (1942).

From this perspective - the WPA and FDR's vaunted 'New Deal' did nothing to break the US out of the Great Depression...until the gold standard got toasted.

I put up a post some time ago talking about this: from Wiki (Boo Google)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economi...ion:_1929-1941

Table 2: Depression Data[2]
1929
1931
1933
1937
1938
1940
Real Gross National Product (GNP) 1
101.4
84.3
68.3
103.9
103.7
113.0
Consumer Price Index 2
122.5
108.7
92.4
102.7
99.4
100.2
Index of Industrial Production 2
109
75
69
112
89
126
Money Supply M2 ($ billions)
46.6
42.7
32.2
45.7
49.3
55.2
Exports ($ billions)
5.24
2.42
1.67
3.35
3.18
4.02
Unemployment (% of civilian work force)
3.1
16.1
25.2
13.8
16.5
13.9

This graph from the Fed presentation shows it, too.

[GRG55]

Re: How to make $315% in six years with low volatility

I have a couple friends that work for Areva here in the States in Lynchburg, VA and Charlotte, NC. They seem to be a thriving company.

I know they're pushing for looser nuclear regulation. Enviros are fighting it. (I wish enviros would either make up their mind or what they want or just disconnect their houses from the electrical grid and go candles.)

The eviro's would probably get excited about the fact that paraffin is a hydrocarbon... :rolleyes:

[bill]

Re: How to make $315% in six years with low volatility

The group:
http://www.gnep.energy.gov/

New Group?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080108...n_080108191614

The Yomiuri Shimbun reported Sunday that the G8 summit would propose setting up a new international organisation to study countries' energy-saving measures.
The world body would provide emerging economies with the environmental know-how of developed countries, Japan's best-selling newspaper said.
The new organisation would be funded by Japan, the United States and European countries, with the International Energy Agency in Paris being eyed as a possible location for the new body's headquarters, the Yomiuri said.
The energy agency official, however, denied the report, saying: "It is true that we plan to discuss a wide range of energy-saving topics but we don't have any plan to set up such a new body."

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/world/20080106TDY01305.htm

[Chris Coles]

Re: How to make $301% in six years with low volatility

New nuclear plants get go-ahead

Sizewell B, the UK's newest reactor, was built in the 1980s Greenpeace view A new generation of nuclear power stations in the UK has been given formal backing by the government. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7179579.stm