How to make $301% in six years with low volatility

[FRED]

Re: How to make $315% in six years with low volatility

I took some money out of my savings in the fall last year and bought some gold merely as a diversification measure to maintain my savings' value as the dollar fell. So I'm not looking "get rich" so much as "breaking even in real terms". The way I look at it, if I maintain the value of my savings while everyone around me loses money, I did a pretty good job.

Here's my one personal problem with what we all think is going to happen.

While I understand everything is pointing toward doom and gloom, I can't see how D.C. will allow something to happen that results in their loss of power. I don't know what it is, but Bernanke and Paulson are going to do something to stop this commodity appreciation.

I guess what I am asking is "What do we think D.C. will do in response, even if we think it will not work?"

We have stayed awake nights pondering this question. Remember, we bought gold in 2001, and the question has been asked since then at $300, $400, $500, $600, $700, and $800: "What will 'they' do to make this trend reverse?"

"They" are causing the trend, as we expected. So, the question is, "What can 'they' do next that is not as predictable as this was to us in 2001?"

We ponder. We interview. We read. We argue. For years!

So far we have not turned anything up. Reading magazines written in the late 1970s and early 1980s, we saw how the gold bulls missed the cues of what the Fed was going to do–slam the US and the world through to massive recessions. That US sneeze, by the way, had this economic impact on Latin America:

Peru 1981 - 1989: 900 percent inflation
Argentina 1984 - 1991: 5000 percent inflation
Brazil 1984 - 1997: 5 trillion percent inflation
Bolivia 1984: 14,700 percent inflation

That will not work in the current environment–the leveraged global economy will implode–but we can't think what will work.

Next week we start a "What are we missing?" thread over on the Select area to propose a few scenarios to discuss. Maybe we arrive at the conclusion to stay the course, or to diversity somewhat. We shall see.

[Rajiv]

Re: How to make $315% in six years with low volatility

Next week we start a "What are we missing?" thread over on the Select area to propose a few scenarios to discuss. Maybe we arrive at the conclusion to stay the course, or to diversity somewhat. We shall see.

Factor the following into your equation -- what would happen if "cold fusion" or tapping into "zero point energy" becomes a reality and that the "they" are convinced that one of these has a extremely high chance of success. See my post in the energy segment on magnetic power inc. See also Blacklight Power

[Guest]

Re: How to make $315% in six years with low volatility

Rajiv -

"Universally avaliable cheap energy for the world", brought to you by a tiny California technology startup company!??

That would indeed be a world changer. I wonder though - how in hell could this turn out to be an American pioneered technology when we are supposed to be GONZO? And isn't it arriving about twenty years too early? :rolleyes:

I thought the US was slated to be officially cast as the "donkey's rear-end, energy glutton, has-been nation" for the next couple of decades? Doesn't the "collapsing USD hegemony and resulting global pariah nation" script say the US is supposed to dutifully slide into mangy has-been status at this point?

How are we supposed to slide credibly into "mangy has-been" status like everyone wants and expects, and become a bonafide banana republic, after coming out with a world-saving new energy technology? The Swedish Nobel committe would be all over us!!? :confused:

[Chris Coles]

Re: How to make $315% in six years with low volatility

Factor the following into your equation -- what would happen if "cold fusion" or tapping into "zero point energy" becomes a reality and that the "they" are convinced that one of these has a extremely high chance of success. See my post in the energy segment on magnetic power inc. See also Blacklight Power

I have to be quite careful with what I write on this page at this exact moment in time.

An author is in the final stages of publishing a book that re-writes the physics textbook. A new model for the atom. Ideal Gas Law completely disappears. New model for Nucleosynthesis. New structure for the proton. Shows how the electron and Positron form from that structure. Describes the source of the photon. Shows the Neutron is not any form of a particle. And, to top it all, describes the potential for a clear path forward to the possibility for the control of gravity, inertia, drag and shock waves.

The book was to have been distributed for review before Christmas, but has been delayed at the printers by the holidays. It should be on the book stands by Easter. The author is not American, but English.

To divert your attention from that, may I also ask you to look at this Japanese inventor Hokei MINATO who has been DELIVERING electric motors using 20% of the normal power of an electric motor for several years already. Not PDF files with wish lists, but REALITY.

http://www.rexresearch.com/minato/minato.htm

He also has devices that seem to produce more energy output than that put in and his patents are readily available on the US Patent office web site.

When I have more news I can release, I will give it to you.

[metalman]

Re: How to make $315% in six years with low volatility

I have to be quite careful with what I write on this page at this exact moment in time.

An author is in the final stages of publishing a book that re-writes the physics textbook. A new model for the atom. Ideal Gas Law completely disappears. New model for Nucleosynthesis. New structure for the proton. Shows how the electron and Positron form from that structure. Describes the source of the photon. Shows the Neutron is not any form of a particle. And, to top it all, describes the potential for a clear path forward to the possibility for the control of gravity, inertia, drag and shock waves.

has to happen some day. was in an apple store the other day looking at those itty bitty iphones that run video and hold hours of movies and and maps with gps in real time and, of course, communication and i'm thinking... oh, yeh. i've seen these before... star trek 1960 something.

some day we will manipulate gravity and make new propulsion systems that today are far fetched.

He also has devices that seem to produce more energy output than that put in

but not that... not that no one has tried. picked this up from energy and money...



perpetual motion machine!

[rj1]

Re: How to make $315% in six years with low volatility

I have to be quite careful with what I write on this page at this exact moment in time.

An author is in the final stages of publishing a book that re-writes the physics textbook. A new model for the atom. Ideal Gas Law completely disappears. New model for Nucleosynthesis. New structure for the proton. Shows how the electron and Positron form from that structure. Describes the source of the photon. Shows the Neutron is not any form of a particle. And, to top it all, describes the potential for a clear path forward to the possibility for the control of gravity, inertia, drag and shock waves.

The book was to have been distributed for review before Christmas, but has been delayed at the printers by the holidays. It should be on the book stands by Easter. The author is not American, but English.

Very interesting.

He also has devices that seem to produce more energy output than that put in and his patents are readily available on the US Patent office web site.

Perpetual motion machines are impossible. It's like saying a central bank can print more money and it has no effect on the value of the money that already exists.

Usually perpetual motion machines are great theories, but all machines have thermal energy (friction, heat loss) which is a parasitic energy form and requires its replacement by a new energy source of some kind.

[jk]

Re: How to make $315% in six years with low volatility

Very interesting.



Perpetual motion machines are impossible. It's like saying a central bank can print more money and it has no effect on the value of the money that already exists.

Usually perpetual motion machines are great theories, but all machines have thermal energy (friction, heat loss) which is a parasitic energy form and requires its replacement by a new energy source of some kind.

nah, all you have to do is import energy from the next universe over within the multiverse! :rolleyes:

p.s. i think this thread has gotten a little far afield.

[Chris Coles]

Re: How to make $315% in six years with low volatility

nah, all you have to do is import energy from the next universe over within the multiverse! :rolleyes:

p.s. i think this thread has gotten a little far afield.

In a very real sense your responses are very interesting. One of the basic aspects of the debate about investing is where the next investment will come from. No doubt the same things were said about the idea of flying, or the idea of travelling faster than sound.

But if the whole basis of your thinking dismisses the new, then all you have is the dregs of the past.... as they slowly dissipate.

Minato is a very real individual who lives amongst the most innovative social group on the planet; Shinjuku. You should all spend a week there soaking up the sight and sounds of the place. His US patents give great detail of how the whole thing works and are very credible.

[Chris Coles]

Re: How to make $315% in six years with low volatility

nah, all you have to do is import energy from the next universe over within the multiverse! :rolleyes:

p.s. i think this thread has gotten a little far afield.

So let us get right back on track with this that has just surfaced from the Fed. I highlight the most interesting part.

"First, we have tried to provide more information than usual to reduce uncertainty and clarify our intentions. This effort is particularly noticeable with respect to open market operations--beginning in August, we have been especially forthcoming about the operations we were undertaking to manage actual or potential disturbances in money markets. Second, we have attempted to let people know when our views of the macroeconomic situation had changed materially between FOMC meetings. For instance, we issued a FOMC statement about the changing balance of risks on August 17 and Chairman Bernanke delivered a speech in late November after market conditions had deteriorated again. And third, we have tried to be open in our balance-of-risks portion of our announcement about our perceptions of the shifting degree of uncertainty in the outlook caused by the recent turmoil. In both September and December we said that the uncertainty was so great that we couldn't usefully characterize the balance of risks; at the end of October, when markets looked as though they were settling down and spillovers beyond the housing sector might be limited, we thought we could characterize "rough balance."

Because the situation has been so fluid and so uncertain in its effects, the speeches of individual FOMC participants have given varied interpretations of the developments and their implications for policy. The resulting dispersion of messages has bothered market participants seeking clear, unambiguous guidance about the views of the central bank. The public should understand that the FOMC members do not coordinate schedules and messages, and that members' views are likely to be especially diverse when, as in the current situation, circumstances are changing quickly and are subject to many different analyses.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsev...n20080105a.htm

Note from me:

They are not in control and, indeed, in my humble opinion, cannot gain control due to the ongoing problem, previously highlighted, of the hedge funds issuing new money that is completely outside of the control of the Fed.

[Rajiv]

Re: How to make $315% in six years with low volatility

Lukester,

I have been following these companies for quite a few years now. There are still residual issues with the technologies, -- but it appears that they are coming closer to commercialization -- however we do not have any real products out there -- and we do not know what other issues there may be with these technologies.

And as for them being US companies -- remember that these efforts or not taking place only in the US -- much work on these has also been done in Japan, France and Russia

As Chris Coles talked about Minato in Japan

[FRED]

Re: How to make $315% in six years with low volatility

So let us get right back on track with this that has just surfaced from the Fed. I highlight the most interesting part.

They are not in control and, indeed, in my humble opinion, cannot gain control due to the ongoing problem, previously highlighted, of the hedge funds issuing new money that is completely outside of the control of the Fed.

From our upcoming treatment of the Fed's Zero Rate World Playbook:

In conclusion…

We’ve seen that open-market purchases of Treasury bills–the Fed’s standard method for stimulating the economy over the past 40 years–become ineffective as short-term interest rates approach zero.

With Treasury bill rates so near zero, the Fed will need to be open to alternatives to standard policy and stand ready to vigorously pursue them if the economy remains weak. In the event it must act alone, the Fed’s best policy option is probably open-market purchases of longer-term government bonds. Efforts to influence longer-term Treasuries are not unprecedented: they were fairly common in the 1940s and early 1950s. But that’s not to say that reorienting Fed policy would be problem-free: there are good reasons why the Fed usually aims its efforts on the short end of the yield curve.

If standard policy options are exhausted, the Fed’s quiver is by no means empty. But the arrows that remain are less familiar and, perhaps, not quite as straight as the ones that have already been fired.

Federal Reserve, May 2003

Get ready for a cloud of bent arrows.

They used to be allies. Now they are enemies.

See the Great Battle unfold.

Fed versus Credit Markets: The Last Defense

[Chris Coles]

Re: How to make $315% in six years with low volatility

From our upcoming treatment of the Fed's Zero Rate World Playbook:

In conclusion…

We’ve seen that open-market purchases of Treasury bills–the Fed’s standard method for stimulating the economy over the past 40 years–become ineffective as short-term interest rates approach zero.

With Treasury bill rates so near zero, the Fed will need to be open to alternatives to standard policy and stand ready to vigorously pursue them if the economy remains weak. In the event it must act alone, the Fed’s best policy option is probably open-market purchases of longer-term government bonds. Efforts to influence longer-term Treasuries are not unprecedented: they were fairly common in the 1940s and early 1950s. But that’s not to say that reorienting Fed policy would be problem-free: there are good reasons why the Fed usually aims its efforts on the short end of the yield curve.

If standard policy options are exhausted, the Fed’s quiver is by no means empty. But the arrows that remain are less familiar and, perhaps, not quite as straight as the ones that have already been fired.

Get ready for a cloud of bent arrows.

They used to be allies. Now they are enemies.

See the Great Battle unfold.

Fed versus Credit Markets: The Great Battle

Fred, we underestimated you. Reminds me to keep my eyes open and my back to the wall on long dark nights. Wow!!

I will give some thought to the Fed's dilemma, but at first sight, they are caught between the proverbial rock and a hard place. But thanks for forewarning us about next week. Sounds like something to look forward to.

[raja]

Re: How to make $315% in six years with low volatility

It's been suggested that the government will reflate the economy by creating new bubbles in alternative energy and infrastructure. But I don't see how that will very effective in restoring the economy . . . .

The bubble in real estate was huge, affecting many sectors of the economy. It permitted consumers to pull lots of money out of their homes and spend it. Jobs and economic activity were boosted in many sectors: building construction, real estate sales, financing, home furnishings, building supplies, landscaping, etc.

It seems to me that a bubble in infrastructure and alternative energy will provide some boost, but it will have a far less significant effect in keeping the consumer spending and stimulating economic activity as a whole, and therefore will not be effective in reflating the economy.

[jk]

Re: How to make $315% in six years with low volatility

It's been suggested that the government will reflate the economy by creating new bubbles in alternative energy and infrastructure. But I don't see how that will very effective in restoring the economy . . . .

The bubble in real estate was huge, affecting many sectors of the economy. It permitted consumers to pull lots of money out of their homes and spend it. Jobs and economic activity were boosted in many sectors: building construction, real estate sales, financing, home furnishings, building supplies, landscaping, etc.

It seems to me that a bubble in infrastructure and alternative energy will provide some boost, but it will have a far less significant effect in keeping the consumer spending and stimulating economic activity as a whole, and therefore will not be effective in reflating the economy.

my thought is that the housing bubble was intensive throughout the ango-saxon countries as well as spain, and a few other countries to a lesser extent. infrastructure and alt energy will be less intensive in terms of its direct penetration into the economy but will be global in extent. i am curious about others' thoughts on this matter.

[zoog]

Re: How to make $315% in six years with low volatility

(My highlighting)

It's been suggested that the government will reflate the economy by creating new bubbles in alternative energy and infrastructure. But I don't see how that will very effective in restoring the economy . . . .

The bubble in real estate was huge, affecting many sectors of the economy. It permitted consumers to pull lots of money out of their homes and spend it. Jobs and economic activity were boosted in many sectors: building construction, real estate sales, financing, home furnishings, building supplies, landscaping, etc.

It seems to me that a bubble in infrastructure and alternative energy will provide some boost, but it will have a far less significant effect in keeping the consumer spending and stimulating economic activity as a whole, and therefore will not be effective in reflating the economy.

my thought is that the housing bubble was intensive throughout the ango-saxon countries as well as spain, and a few other countries to a lesser extent. infrastructure and alt energy will be less intensive in terms of its direct penetration into the economy but will be global in extent. i am curious about others' thoughts on this matter.

The first thought that came to my mind was the WPA.

...the largest New Deal agency, employing millions of people and affecting most every locality. ... The program built many public buildings, projects and roads, and operated large arts, drama, media and literacy projects. It fed children, redistributed food, clothing and housing. ... added up to the largest employment base in the country...

If the recession becomes severe enough that unemployment approaches Great Depression levels, I believe the government will step in to provide work, shelter, food, education, and entertainment (bread and circuses). We will hear political rhetoric about how alternative energy and new infrastructure are the keys to overcoming the recession, increasing our security, maintaining our independence, etc. "We will rebuild this nation!" and so forth.