EJ, what is your motivation?

[don]

Re: EJ, what is your motivation?

Bet you're amused boss, at least in part . . .

[BadJuju]

Re: EJ, what is your motivation?

I certainly appreciate's EJ's contributions.

Still, I wonder why he doesn't just take his money and spend his days wallowing in hookers and drugs while he still can. I certainly wouldn't spend my time writing out countless articles and researching boring economic data especially when the world is going to go to shit soon.

[jiimbergin]

Re: EJ, what is your motivation?

I certainly appreciate's EJ's contributions.

Still, I wonder why he doesn't just take his money and spend his days wallowing in hookers and drugs while he still can. I certainly wouldn't spend my time writing out countless articles and researching boring economic data especially when the world is going to go to shit soon.

I may be wrong, but I think EJ is actually in the long run an optimist, unlike your pessimism.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: EJ, what is your motivation?

I certainly appreciate's EJ's contributions.

Still, I wonder why he doesn't just take his money and spend his days wallowing in hookers and drugs while he still can. I certainly wouldn't spend my time writing out countless articles and researching boring economic data especially when the world is going to go to shit soon.

I think that would be an example of the behaviour of a quitter.

I don't see EJ as a quitter.

While EJ shares some dark stuff reading between the lines….and I suspect he harbours possibly darker real possibilities……ultimately he is an optimist……just like every REAL entrepreneur I have ever met.

The sun is going to come up, and things will get better………it's just that the time between now and that future date could be a bit cold and dark for a bit.

If I thought for a second that EJ was a fatalist and went all "Inshallah", I'd never come back to this place.

Personally, I think this place has a well above average number of optimists……optimists who are a bit weathered and scarred by life.

In a way, I look at this site as a bit like a Sci Fi show(maybe something like Outer Limits)……..someone magically appears(EJ) with what is essentially proof of a dystopic future financial tsunami.

You have a choice……do you choose the route of the optimist and build a lifeboat to see the sun shining on the other side of the storm, or do you head to the pessimistic route party until the wave hits?

I think most people here are optimists at heart…if they weren't, wouldn't they all be partying like rock stars?

[BadJuju]

Re: EJ, what is your motivation?

I'm partying like a rock star....without the rock star's fortune, but a rock star nonetheless! Spend me final days doing whatever and screw all else. Here's a tip: none of you are getting out alive, whether this financial tsunami consumes you or not. Why not just do whatever? No one's judging.

[shiny!]

Re: EJ, what is your motivation?

Why not just do whatever? No one's judging.

Because abusing my body and mind makes me hurt worse, and I don't like hurting any more than I absolutely have to.

You're right. You're going to die, but you don't know when. You think it will be soon but you're most likely wrong unless you go suicidal. Or you're psychic. But if you were psychic you'd have won the lottery and aced the stock market by now. No, believing in a foreshortened life is a classic symptom of depression. You're depressed, juju, not because the world sucks but because, IMHO, your brain chemistry is unbalanced. You can fix that.

Abuse your body, abuse your mind with habitual gloom and pessimism and drugs. Live with the painful consequences of your choices to a ripe old age, and kick yourself for being so stupid when you were young.

Even if I have only one day left to me, I want to be as happy that day as possible. Then if I end up living a long life it will have been filled with happiness, not self-inflicted misery.

Approaching the third anniversary of my husband's death, thinking about him a lot. He never had an easy life but he was happy because he didn't let it get him down. You can choose to live a happy life, too, juju, but not if you keep smashing yourself with a hammer.

I think you post these outlandish things because deep down you want to be told you're wrong. So this is me, lovingly telling you to SNAP OUT OF IT!

[lakedaemonian]

Re: EJ, what is your motivation?

I'm partying like a rock star....without the rock star's fortune, but a rock star nonetheless! Spend me final days doing whatever and screw all else. Here's a tip: none of you are getting out alive, whether this financial tsunami consumes you or not. Why not just do whatever? No one's judging.

Personally, I've given up on trying to push up to the next level of affluence/wealth.

We've realized it will simply not change our lifestyle one bit(1,2,3,4,5X is not going to change OUR livestyle)......it will only impact what we leave behind.

And we'd rather leave behind children equipped for the future rather than financially insulated from the future.

So we're investing more of our time in our children rather than investing more of our time in investing(beyond what is prudent to ensure we best protect what we already have).

I've shifted my thinking a bit out beyond the next 12 months or the next 12 years.

It may be bold, but I'd like to do what I can with my children and hopefully my grandchildren someday to better ensure the continuity of our family's ethos and bloodline.

Ambitious yes......but everyone needs to have a hobby.

I agree I'm not getting out of this alive......and if none of US do....then you made the right decision to party like a rockstar.

But I have faith that if I do my job right, it could play a statistically insignificant role in someone with my DNA and further refined ethos stepping foot on another planet someday in the distant future.

As individuals we are not getting out of this alive......but I have hope that someday WE might get a few monkeys off this rock. Because if we don't, then truly none of US are getting out of this alive.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: EJ, what is your motivation?

Because abusing my body and mind makes me hurt worse, and I don't like hurting any more than I absolutely have to.

You're right. You're going to die, but you don't know when. You think it will be soon but you're most likely wrong unless you go suicidal. Or you're psychic. But if you were psychic you'd have won the lottery and aced the stock market by now. No, believing in a foreshortened life is a classic symptom of depression. You're depressed, juju, not because the world sucks but because, IMHO, your brain chemistry is unbalanced. You can fix that.

Abuse your body, abuse your mind with habitual gloom and pessimism and drugs. Live with the painful consequences of your choices to a ripe old age, and kick yourself for being so stupid when you were young.

Even if I have only one day left to me, I want to be as happy that day as possible. Then if I end up living a long life it will have been filled with happiness, not self-inflicted misery.

Approaching the third anniversary of my husband's death, thinking about him a lot. He never had an easy life but he was happy because he didn't let it get him down. You can choose to live a happy life, too, juju, but not if you keep smashing yourself with a hammer.

I think you post these outlandish things because deep down you want to be told you're wrong. So this is me, lovingly telling you to SNAP OUT OF IT!

Good advice Shiny.

Although, I reckon everyone needs to "party like a rockstar" in their own way at some point.....for a minute or a year..to each their own.

But I reckon for every person in need of rehab, there's probably another person in need of some celebration.

What I have seen in some(typically the offspring of the very wealthy I know) is that a life of celebration has no reference points. No compass bearing. No North Star or Southern Cross to provide direction on the journey.

I've seen folks who superficially seem to have it all, but under the vaneer haven't earned their soul(and I don't mean that in a religious sense).

I've always contemplated what eternity is assuming an atheistic universe.

I think it's in the butterfly effect we have on those around us, particularly in times of failure, loss, and challenge.

I'm not a big fan of what I see as the "anti-Puritan" believe system to party like tomorrow's the end of days.

A life of sacrifice and suffering might be good for productivity. but that's no life to live.

A life of party until the music stops is just too nihilistic to me...maybe it was having children.
I reckon the sweet spot on the continuum between Puritanism and Nihilism is probably somewhere right in the middle.

[shiny!]

Re: EJ, what is your motivation?

Good advice Shiny.

Although, I reckon everyone needs to "party like a rockstar" in their own way at some point.....for a minute or a year..to each their own.

But I reckon for every person in need of rehab, there's probably another person in need of some celebration.

What I have seen in some(typically the offspring of the very wealthy I know) is that a life of celebration has no reference points. No compass bearing. No North Star or Southern Cross to provide direction on the journey.

I've seen folks who superficially seem to have it all, but under the vaneer haven't earned their soul(and I don't mean that in a religious sense).

I've always contemplated what eternity is assuming an atheistic universe.

I think it's in the butterfly effect we have on those around us, particularly in times of failure, loss, and challenge.

I'm not a big fan of what I see as the "anti-Puritan" believe system to party like tomorrow's the end of days.

A life of sacrifice and suffering might be good for productivity. but that's no life to live.

A life of party until the music stops is just too nihilistic to me...maybe it was having children.
I reckon the sweet spot on the continuum between Puritanism and Nihilism is probably somewhere right in the middle.

This is just beautiful. I like the way you think.

I once asked Ron Kurtz, the inventor of the Hakomi method of psychotherapy, what he thought was the secret to happiness. He thought for a moment or two, then said, "Learn to kiss the Joy as it flies."

It's been twenty years since he told me that. Don't know what made me remember it just now, but I'm glad I did.

[jk]

Re: EJ, what is your motivation?

"cheap thrills" was a great record album- big brother and the holding company with janis joplin, really her first big splash - but i don't think it's a slogan to provide a good guide to living. nor expensive thrills, for that matter. yes we're all going to die, and we can love our children or better yet love everybody's children, but there's no denying the fact that homo sapiens will one day become extinct. why should our species be exempt? and we'll probably become extinct much sooner than the expansion of the sun beyond earth's orbit, let alone the heat death of the universe. so we can do what we wish with our time alive, but i think partying and sensual pleasure alone don't provide enough complexity and structure to make our time as full and rich as possible. [and i don't mean "money rich"] this is not to disparage the joy and reward of party time - i think it's a great thing to keep in the mix. but i want more than that alone. i don't want a one ingredient recipe - it's not likely to satisfy for the sustenance of a lifetime.

[vinoveri]

Re: EJ, what is your motivation?

I reckon the sweet spot on the continuum between Puritanism and Nihilism is probably somewhere right in the middle.

As a theist myself, my similar yet modified version of this is: "Catholicism is the golden mean between Puritanism and Paganism" - actually think GK Chesterton may have said this.

[Chris Coles]

Re: EJ, what is your motivation?

"cheap thrills" was a great record album- big brother and the holding company with janis joplin, really her first big splash - but i don't think it's a slogan to provide a good guide to living. nor expensive thrills, for that matter. yes we're all going to die, and we can love our children or better yet love everybody's children, but there's no denying the fact that homo sapiens will one day become extinct. why should our species be exempt? and we'll probably become extinct much sooner than the expansion of the sun beyond earth's orbit, let alone the heat death of the universe. so we can do what we wish with our time alive, but i think partying and sensual pleasure alone don't provide enough complexity and structure to make our time as full and rich as possible. [and i don't mean "money rich"] this is not to disparage the joy and reward of party time - i think it's a great thing to keep in the mix. but i want more than that alone. i don't want a one ingredient recipe - it's not likely to satisfy for the sustenance of a lifetime.

+1 and to add, Thursday 13th, I picked up a ~ 6 Kg piece of rock; you will have to wait for a while to discover just how much fun this discovery has already brought me. Money rich is easy; mental rich is a lifetimes work never ended.

[charliebrown]

Re: EJ, what is your motivation?

Instead of a bunch of sage's pontificating about the length of the emperor's nose, It would be nice for the emperor (EJ) to add his voice here. I have nothing but praise for the man. He has been kind to me in answering my sophmoric questions. He has not really given us any bad advice. He does not seem to be doing a Goldman by telling his clients to do one thing while he does the opposite.

I try to emulate EJ on this site, giving advice to others when they ask for it, to help them along. I'm just not as smart.
Times are getting tough, the good are going to have to stick together to survive both economically and spiritually.

[don]

Re: EJ, what is your motivation?

Times are getting tough, the good are going to have to stick together to survive both economically and spiritually.

Impossible not to agree with that, Charlie

[EJ]

Re: EJ, what is your motivation?

Mr. Janszen,
You have an impressive track record in predicting the path of the US economy, perhaps second to none.
The motivation for many who sell their financial predictions and advice is profit. What is yours?

If I may speculate, I would guess that you are largely motivated by 2 factors:
A) profit from subscriptions
B) gratification from being "right"

I suspect that like many brilliant individuals B plays a larger role in motivating you than does A, especially as I assume you are quite wealthy.

I am interested in your motivations because the reason a person does something is often very valuable in evaluating their analysis.

I appreciate the question and the comments from members. I wrote a lengthy response but sadly it was somehow deleted. I hope to have time to re-write it later this week.

In the mean time, a few photos from a recent trip to Bogota and Cartagena, Columbia.

Picture taken of the wealthy southern half of the city from the church atop Monserrate, a mountain to the west of Bogotá,
the capital city of Colombia. The mountain rises to 10,341 ft above the sea level.





The poorer half of the city is to the north, the part of Bogotá that tourists are strongly encouraged to not visit.





The way that my wife and I go about getting to know a city is to take a cab or train to the farthest end of the city from our
hotel and walk across the entire city back to our hotel. On Sunday the streets turn into a giant yard sale and we came across
this one at random as crossed the city.





The main roads are closed off to traffic on Sunday and fill with families biking and walking.





The infrastructure is terrible. The sidewalks are a wreck and graffiti festoons every available surface, even in the relatively
upscale parts of the city. This building is in the heart of the financial district.





Also in the financial district, is this "completed" underpass, never mind the rebar.

The same underpass as seen from above. Picture taken from the window of the Museum of Modern Art.

This exhibit in the museum lampoons the Columbian coat of arms.

Bogotá has a reputation for being unsafe but in reality there are only two real threats and they apply equally to locals
as to tourists. One is to avoid motorcycles. A helmet serves well as a mask for thieves who will knock down
the unwary and take anything they can quickly grab -- cell phone, watch, wallet, etc. Keep an eye out for them.
The other thing to never do is hail a cab on the street or risk getting taken for a the famous "Million Peso Ride."
The way it works is that you and your wife get into the cab. The driver then picks up an accomplice who has a
gun or knife. You are then driven around from ATM to ATM until either your bank account runs out of funds.
Instead ask a trusted party, such as the concierge at your hotel, to call a cab for you. Even then the security
at your hotel is going to give the driver the 3rd degree to make sure he's a good guy.






Razor wire adorns the walls of our four-star hotel. Burglaries are common.






Armed police are ubiquitous as are bomb sniffing dogs. You cannot drive into an underground garage without
security checking underneath your vehicle with mirrors and a once-over by a trained dog. A British ex-pat
who'd lived 12 years in Bogota told me that FARC although reduced was still active, having attempted to
kill a local politician by car bomb as recently as 2012.




.............................

If you ask the police for permission to take a photo they will smile shyly and say no. So these are
a couple of selfie shots taken of police over my shoulder. To the left is part of a group of at least
20 police who guarded our hotel during a meeting of local politicians there. To the right are two
military police with M16s at the plaza up the street from our apartment in Cartagena. There are
occasional road blocks on major roads where dozens of heavily armed soldiers stop cars they
suspect of carrying drugs or explosives.





Mostly the police hang around in groups on street corners chatting, smoking, and eating.
In most of the city they can be seen on nearly every street corner. I asked several locals about the
heavy police presence and the standard reply was that they are a hold-over from the bad old days of the
drug cartels and the guerillas. Cutting the payroll back to a level that is proportionate to the
actual risks posed by these groups today is politically impossible.






Life goes on. This businessman rushes to a meeting.





A man and his daughter pass by the door outside the Museo de Oro.

Inside the Museum of Gold are thousands of ancient Columbian gold artifacts. Museum rules prohibit the taking of
photos but in true Latin American fashion everyone does anyway and the guards don't care.

Di Lucca in Bogota serves modern Italian cuisine in a warm and homey setting.

Lentils, cole slaw, roast chicken and rice for $3 at a downtown cafeteria. Columbians are picky about their food, with
organic produce and grass fed meats the norm.





Our driver shows off the engine and refueling of his natural gas powered cab. When Chavez threw all of the best
oil and gas engineers out of Venezuela for political reasons they came to Columbia.

56% of Columbia's exports are coal, oil, and refined oil. Gas is consumed domestically. The "other" 23% is cocaine, of course.

Thank you for letting my hijack your thread with this. I'll be back shortly to answer your question.