2013 Review and 2014 Forecast - Part I: The Last Bubble - Eric Janszen

[vt]

Re: What is a "debt deflation"

EJ,

In past markets bonds were a great place to hide out. I understand you see rising interest rates, but in the Ka portion that we may be entering might bonds actually rally in a recession for a brief time before seeing rates rise quite a bit higher over the next few years?

Or will there be:

[jpatter666]

Re: What is a "debt deflation"

you can check posts by user. go to their profile it will show their latest activities. You can check their latest posts and the latest threads they have started.

Sorry, meant subscribe -- I've been manually tracking by user for ages. Just is a pain and I'm whining.... :-)

[jpatter666]

Re: What is a "debt deflation"

I just don't know how anyone can look at a chart of the S&P 500 today and say "Looks like a buying opportunity". For me, this is the part of investing that starts to overlap into the realm of gambling. The markets can go up another 10 - 15% from here, but is a little left over meat on the bone really worth grabbing for?

How much is the amount invested every month via 401Ks?

401Ks started in the early 80s -- from that point on the market took off and I've always wondered how much if any 401Ks were part of that.

[porter]

Re: What is a "debt deflation"

I can say that I've had almost a dozen friends or family call me over the past 2 weeks asking about how stop losses work or telling me they are putting them in place. I've never had that happen before.

[vt]

Re: What is a "debt deflation"



A sign of the top is when there is no one left to buy.

[gugion]

Re: What is a "debt deflation"

I can say that I've had almost a dozen friends or family call me over the past 2 weeks asking about how stop losses work or telling me they are putting them in place. I've never had that happen before.

Doesn't that mean the market will probably continue higher to climb a wall of worry? The public must be on board or at least bullish for the market to fall, because market makers and professionals won't let the public be right. Your friends and family asking about stop losses mean there is still too much bearishness out there.

[jpetr48]

Re: What is a "debt deflation"

From the AAII sentiment survey week ending 2/19/2014. Bullish is 2% above long term average and bearish is 8% below.

Survey Results
Sentiment Survey ResultsWeek ending 2/19/2014 Data represents what direction members feel the stock market will be in the next 6 months.
	Bullish	42.2% up 2.1
	Neutral	35.0% up 2.5
	Bearish	22.8% down 4.6

[ProdigyofZen]

Re: What is a "debt deflation"

Doesn't that mean the market will probably continue higher to climb a wall of worry? The public must be on board or at least bullish for the market to fall, because market makers and professionals won't let the public be right. Your friends and family asking about stop losses mean there is still too much bearishness out there.

The market is different now. This obsession the media has with "retail investors" is a facade. Retail investors don't drive the current iteration of the market no more than TSLA sales drive QE.

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: What is a "debt deflation"

Doesn't that mean the market will probably continue higher to climb a wall of worry? The public must be on board or at least bullish for the market to fall, because market makers and professionals won't let the public be right. Your friends and family asking about stop losses mean there is still too much bearishness out there.

I take it otherwise.
Sounds to me like the herd knows it has lingered too long at the watering hole, and now it's getting a little whiff of lion scent in the breeze.
Eyes darting, tails twitching, they are spooked and ready to stampede.

[Chris Coles]

Re: What is a "debt deflation"

I take it otherwise.
Sounds to me like the herd knows it has lingered too long at the watering hole, and now it's getting a little whiff of lion scent in the breeze.
Eyes darting, tails twitching, they are spooked and ready to stampede.

My instincts are with POZ for the simple reason that most of the trading today is entirely electronic high speed trading. It is mathematics driving the markets today and there is thus no human element in the decisions made.

[don]

Re: What is a "debt deflation"

don't forget QE . . .

[Forrest]

Re: What is a "debt deflation"

I take it otherwise.
Sounds to me like the herd knows it has lingered too long at the watering hole, and now it's getting a little whiff of lion scent in the breeze.
Eyes darting, tails twitching, they are spooked and ready to stampede.

Great metaphor...so evocative!

[touhy]

Re: What is a "debt deflation"

"Sounds to me like the herd knows it has lingered too long at the watering hole, and now it's getting a little whiff of lion scent in the breeze.
Eyes darting, tails twitching, they are spooked and ready to stampede."



Ha. ha! I wish there was a "like" button. That's funny.

[ProdigyofZen]

Re: What is a "debt deflation"

"Sounds to me like the herd knows it has lingered too long at the watering hole, and now it's getting a little whiff of lion scent in the breeze.
Eyes darting, tails twitching, they are spooked and ready to stampede."



Ha. ha! I wish there was a "like" button. That's funny.

How to survive a Lion attack: Above all "Do Not Run"


Edited by TJ, Andrew, SplishSplash, Teresa and 18 others
Should you ever happen to be in the path of a lion while out on a walking safari in Africa (or any safari park) or due to the sheer bad luck of falling into the lion enclosure at your local zoo, then you'll need to know what to do. Like most information of this sort, it's better read now and tucked away for future reference, in the off chance you might actually need to draw on it when it matters most

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[vt]

Re: What is a "debt deflation"

http://www.wikihow.com/Survive-an-Apocalypse