2013 Review and 2014 Forecast - Part I: The Last Bubble - Eric Janszen

[gugion]

Re: What is a "debt deflation"

U.S. market futures are in the red. I think this will be a pivotal day for my theory.

Just my two cents, but what I find is that tops tend to take time to roll over (process vs event per EJ). I also find that double tops are rare and what usually happens is the market makes one final marginal new high to fakeout the small money before rolling over for good. What that means is the market can break above SPX 1850 and your theory of a market top at SPX 1850 could still be correct. This is exactly what happened in the 2000 and 2007 tops, a new marginal high was made and then reversed almost immediately. I am going to give you wiggle room EJ, because my technical charts are in agreement with your fundamental perspective for a top of major importance "around here". I am guessing a top will be made between SPX 1850-2000. The top may already be in, but a 10% wiggle room "buffer" is OK in my mind. If we do get a new high above SPX 1850, look for the news and trading/investment blogs to start targeting SPX 2000 as the next stop. If you start seeing people target SPX 2000, the top will probably be made shortly after. I've wondered myself if the market would dare top at SPX 1929, just to make a point (it did bottom at SPX 666 in 2009). I guess we'll see.

Update: The SPY hit a new marginal high by 1 cent above the January high and reversed. The SPX has not yet hit a new high. Today could be a nice reversal candle.

[Chomsky]

Re: What is a "debt deflation"

Lockhart just said "only dramatic event will alter taper" this is as I suspected, Yellen is hell bent on getting backed to rules based monetary policy which means she has to end QE ASAP.

Lockhart also said "first rate hike second half 2015" If you follow Yellen's chart this is almost dead on.

It is not looking good for the equity markets this year. Everyone will rush to fixed income which will perform well this year until the Fed's next policies cause the UST crisis.

Nice last-hour tumble going on.

[porter]

Re: What is a "debt deflation"

U.S. market futures are in the red. I think this will be a pivotal day for my theory.

End up like you thought it would?

[EJ]

Re: What is a "debt deflation"

End up like you thought it would?

Yes, and given all that we have seen and talked about here since 1998, is there anyone here who doesn't think this market is past it's Sell By date by at least a month?

[jpatter666]

Re: What is a "debt deflation"

Yes, and given all that we have seen and talked about here since 1998, is there anyone here who doesn't think this market is past it's Sell By date by at least a month?

Finster, bart and Raz -- that was your cue call.

[EJ]

Re: What is a "debt deflation"

Finster, bart and Raz -- that was your cue call.

Meaning they don't think so? I don't read others' views on the markets. It pollutes my process. I want readers to have a pure position to compare to others'.

[jpatter666]

Re: What is a "debt deflation"

Meaning they don't think so? I don't read others' views on the markets. It pollutes my process. I want readers to have a pure position to compare to others'.

No, no, no! Meaning I was looking for their opinions.

[EJ]

Re: What is a "debt deflation"

No, no, no! Meaning I was looking for their opinions.

They will be reluctant to contradict me on my own forum or on one of my threads, just as I do not contradict them on theirs. It's a matter of respect. To get their perspective you need to visit their forums here that we created for them many years ago to support the independence of their views but consistent with the iTulip ethos of rigorous analysis and respectful dialogue. Conflicts of opinion among us occasionally occur on the ShadowFed forum.

[verdo]

Re: What is a "debt deflation"

i can only imagine how gold will react to this. Remember, it was the crash in 2000 that convinced the countries on the fringes to start buying. It was the bigger 2008 crash that convinced central banks to become net buyers in 2009. What will be the crash (from a higher high) of 2014 do? Though if this is all begins in asia, maybe the U.S. wont get the blame, and hence no rabid grab for gold

[jpatter666]

Re: What is a "debt deflation"

They will be reluctant to contradict me on my own forum or on one of my threads, just as I do not contradict them on theirs. It's a matter of respect. To get their perspective you need to visit their forums here that we created for them many years ago to support the independence of their views but consistent with the iTulip ethos of rigorous analysis and respectful dialogue. Conflicts of opinion among us occasionally occur on the ShadowFed forum.

OK, though I find it slightly odd that you feel they shouldn't post a contrasting opinion (if so) on this thread but they are perfectly free to do so on another iTulip thread. The whole purpose of iTulip is open (polite) discussion.

But if the case, then I repeat my eternal desire of tracking posts by user -- because now I need to hunt for their posts instead of watching this thread.

Personally, while I think this market is well and truly cooked on fundamentals, that hasn't mattered because everyone is still in -- with an eye on the exits for certain -- but still in because it's still going up. There is no catalyst to sell.

So while I agree, the Sell By date has past -- everyone is still drinking the milk. And until someone gets a sour taste in their mouth -- will continue to do so.

[verdo]

Re: What is a "debt deflation"

Personally, while I think this market is well and truly cooked on fundamentals, that hasn't mattered because everyone is still in -- with an eye on the exits for certain -- but still in because it's still going up. There is no catalyst to sell.

So while I agree, the Sell By date has past -- everyone is still drinking the milk. And until someone gets a sour taste in their mouth -- will continue to do so.

I just don't know how anyone can look at a chart of the S&P 500 today and say "Looks like a buying opportunity". For me, this is the part of investing that starts to overlap into the realm of gambling. The markets can go up another 10 - 15% from here, but is a little left over meat on the bone really worth grabbing for?

[bill]

Re: What is a "debt deflation"

Though if this is all begins in asia, maybe the U.S. wont get the blame,

Ha, at G-20 meeting in Australia CB’s are begging FED not to taper to fast as per IMF would cause financial instability.
http://www.imf.org/external/np/g20/pdf/2014/021914.pdf

[EJ]

Re: What is a "debt deflation"

Ha, at G-20 meeting in Australia CB’s are begging FED not to taper to fast as per IMF would cause financial instability.
http://www.imf.org/external/np/g20/pdf/2014/021914.pdf

The beast turns
Its tail knocks over a few countries
Too bad

[jiimbergin]

Re: What is a "debt deflation"

OK, though I find it slightly odd that you feel they shouldn't post a contrasting opinion (if so) on this thread but they are perfectly free to do so on another iTulip thread. The whole purpose of iTulip is open (polite) discussion.

But if the case, then I repeat my eternal desire of tracking posts by user -- because now I need to hunt for their posts instead of watching this thread.

Personally, while I think this market is well and truly cooked on fundamentals, that hasn't mattered because everyone is still in -- with an eye on the exits for certain -- but still in because it's still going up. There is no catalyst to sell.

So while I agree, the Sell By date has past -- everyone is still drinking the milk. And until someone gets a sour taste in their mouth -- will continue to do so.

you can check posts by user. go to their profile it will show their latest activities. You can check their latest posts and the latest threads they have started.

[BadJuju]

Re: What is a "debt deflation"

The beast turns
Its tail knocks over a few countries
Too bad

Hah.