2013 Review and 2014 Forecast - Part I: The Last Bubble - Eric Janszen

[Chomsky]

Re: What is a "debt deflation"

For the perfectionistic, it's worth noting that the S&P500 today flirted with but did not yet exceeded what may be the 1850 3rd reflation peak, and that tonight the NIKKEI is teetering, which is significant as this is an Asia-centric versus US-centric crisis, for a change.

Europe seems to have followed.

[EJ]

Re: What is a "debt deflation"

Europe seems to have followed.

U.S. market futures are in the red. I think this will be a pivotal day for my theory.

[jpetr48]

Re: What is a "debt deflation"

Europe seems to have followed.

Frankly i am concerned enough with our own country right now. I have looked at a number of large cap balance sheets like KO for liquidity and solvency as part of due diligence - admittedly for the first time to my ignorance. And i have backed down from a number of holdings. The music will end for reasons mentioned in last commentary. You can only buy back stock for so long and once interest rates go up, you cant doctor top line growth.

The common sense logic is why would i invest in a company when a bank would not look at me if my balance sheet was leveraged.

[Chomsky]

Re: What is a "debt deflation"

U.S. market futures are in the red. I think this will be a pivotal day for my theory.

After starting in the red, the S&P is on a major ramp job and up to 1847.

[EJ]

Re: What is a "debt deflation"

After starting in the red, the S&P is on a major ramp job and up to 1847.

Looks like it's going to roll over.

[vinoveri]

Re: What is a "debt deflation"

Frankly i am concerned enough with our own country right now. I have looked at a number of large cap balance sheets like KO for liquidity and solvency as part of due diligence - admittedly for the first time to my ignorance. And i have backed down from a number of holdings. The music will end for reasons mentioned in last commentary. You can only buy back stock for so long and once interest rates go up, you cant doctor top line growth.

The common sense logic is why would i invest in a company when a bank would not look at me if my balance sheet was leveraged.

Common sense? ~ 0% Fed funds for the past 5 years and no end in sight. Fed balance sheet expansion by $1 trillion p.a. (OK down to $850 billion now). Global CB's following suit.

I really don't understand how anyone can pick a top (especially when it blew through the all time high last year). There is no overhead supply; there is no liquid place to earn yield anymore - US equities and junk bonds are the new T-bonds. I hope EJ is correct so we can get this farce over with and have some sort of normalcy and free market going forward.

[ProdigyofZen]

Re: What is a "debt deflation"

Looks like it's going to roll over.

SP 500 sometimes gets ramped up in the last 30 mins of trading. Most of Asia was up last night except for Japan.

[ProdigyofZen]

Re: What is a "debt deflation"

and free market going forward.

The question is: What kind of free market? Do free markets even exist?

A free market in the classical sense that Adam Smith defined as "one free of rentier interests" or what I call Post-Free Market, the one we reside in today? More post-free market tax rules and rentier economics?

The old enemies of peace are upon us and have been cloaking themselves in the veil of free market idealogy for the better part of 40 years.

As Roosevelt stated: “we had to struggle with the old enemies of peace — business and financial monopoly, speculation, reckless banking. . . . They are unanimous in their hate for me, and I welcome their hatred.”

Truman was right when he said "The Wall Street reactionaries are not satisfied with being rich.... They want a return of the Wall Street economic dictatorship."

Well they got it the past 30+ years and look what that has done to the world.

A simple exercise or question is worth debating: Would we have had the advent of the personal computer, fiber optics, internet etc without accumulating the greatest private and now public debt (the number 1 export of the FIRE economy), that the world has ever seen?

[jpetr48]

Re: What is a "debt deflation"

SP 500 sometimes gets ramped up in the last 30 mins of trading. Most of Asia was up last night except for Japan.

Looking at a 60 minute point and figure chart (high/low) for spy, demand for spy => 185 has dried up early December, January and as of 2-19-2014 at noon est. it is just stopping in its tracks at 184.65. if i am not mistaken the longer this condition stays coiled as it is the more explosive the uncoiling will be. My bet is on EJ theory as mentioned yesterday,

[Chomsky]

Re: What is a "debt deflation"

Looks like it's going to roll over.

This is fun by the way.

Steep drop, now once again in the red for the day.

[ProdigyofZen]

Re: What is a "debt deflation"

Looking at a 60 minute point and figure chart (high/low) for spy, demand for spy => 185 has dried up early December, January and as of 2-19-2014 at noon est. it is just stopping in its tracks at 184.65. if i am not mistaken the longer this condition stays coiled as it is the more explosive the uncoiling will be. My bet is on EJ theory as mentioned yesterday,

Market just rolled over, everything in the red except WTI.

[ProdigyofZen]

Re: What is a "debt deflation"

Lockhart just said "only dramatic event will alter taper" this is as I suspected, Yellen is hell bent on getting backed to rules based monetary policy which means she has to end QE ASAP.

Lockhart also said "first rate hike second half 2015" If you follow Yellen's chart this is almost dead on.

It is not looking good for the equity markets this year. Everyone will rush to fixed income which will perform well this year until the Fed's next policies cause the UST crisis.

[Chris Coles]

Re: What is a "debt deflation"

A simple exercise or question is worth debating: Would we have had the advent of the personal computer, fiber optics, internet etc without accumulating the greatest private and now public debt (the number 1 export of the FIRE economy), that the world has ever seen?

This is very easy to answer; why? Trying to make out nothing would have happened without them; has been the calling card for venture capitalism for those 30+ years; we not only would have, without them; we would also have had a much more stable economy. Take a look at the success of the Victorian industrialists here in the UK. They were so successful; WITHOUT a Wall Street, they took a tiny nation into the most powerful on the planet.

How many ideas for new developments have been missed because they only invested into those they saw as potentially successful? Take my own case, by now you would have a fully functional Video-911 system in place. Instead, rather than accept competition to their existing investments; they refused to invest at all.

A feudal mercantile VC based FIRE economy has held back the US Telecom economy for at least the last decade. No doubt about it.

[icm63]

Re: What is a "debt deflation"

Jesse Livermore way to review market

readtheticker.com

The Livermore NYSE trade set up (a double top on NYSE composite index)

The Livermore Gold trade set up ( a double bottom on gold)

[ProdigyofZen]

Re: What is a "debt deflation"

Oil is starting to surge from a low of 92 beginning of year to 103 now (still I believe the highest oil price ever for this time of the year) and natural gas has been surging for a year and just jumped 11% to end over 6 btu for March contract. That is a 5 year high.