2013 Review and 2014 Forecast - Part I: The Last Bubble - Eric Janszen

[EJ]

Re: 2013 Review and 2014 Forecast - Part I: The Last Bubble - Eric Janszen

[/FONT][/COLOR]Good call! Thanks!

By the way, any updates on how your own company is doing?

Very well! Here's VirZOOM on The Today Show recently.

Full media coverage and a wealth of information on the company and products are available in the public section of the VirZOOM Forums.

[icm63]

Re: 2013 Review and 2014 Forecast - Part I: The Last Bubble - Eric Janszen

CHECK This out the GREEDOMETER

This guy has is own flow index (a bit like this readtheticker . com /Pages/StockMarketTiming.aspx?65tf=2252_rtt-flow-index), but watch the video, see how much central banker (CB) action is in the market these days..Every DIP attracts CB action! One day the morphine just wont work!

The video supports the of a very bad 2016 for stocks.

He got the Jan 2016 sell off spot on!

[Southernguy]

Re: 2013 Review and 2014 Forecast - Part I: The Last Bubble - Eric Janszen

Re. oil I found this: "Not all the analysts missed the clues. In 2012, with oil north of $100 a barrel, where the consensus said the price had to be in order to incentivize sufficient production to feed demand, oil economist Michael Lynch told an OPEC conference that the sustainable price of petroleum was $50 to $60 a barrel. He was more or less laughed out of the room. Around the same time, Philip Verleger, an oil economist who runs a consulting firm out of Colorado, predicted Saudi’s war—in a May 2012 note to clients, he forecast a “Lehman event,” referring to the pivotal role of the 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers in the financial crash.
Verleger is a ribald iconoclast with an encyclopedic knowledge of industry history, and a penchant for deriding the judgment of seemingly everyone else analyzing the market. In the Lehman note, he predicted that Saudi Arabia would do as it did in 1985—flood the market—and he timed it for later in 2012. Prices would plunge, he said. Even though the bull run went another two years, Verleger arguably still had more clarity than his peers.
What comes next?

In February 2015, Saudi energy minister Ali Naimi pondered aloud whether petro-states might suffer a black swan event, with oil demand drying up entirely by 2050. And then what would the Saudis do? It seemed like an off-the-cuff philosophical contemplation.
But Verleger suggests that it wasn’t—that the larger message of the current bedlam is that we are watching the autumn of the oil industry.
“Producing countries understand that oil not produced today may never be produced,” Verleger told Quartz. “Saudi Arabia was the first nation to come to this understanding. In response, they and other countries have acted to make sure their low-cost oil is produced first while the high-cost oil in nations such as Venezuela and Canada are left permanently in the ground.”
The notion sounds slightly wacky—does Saudi Arabia seriously believe the oil age is coming to an end? Saudi Aramco chairman Khalid al-Falih did say recently that the country intends to maintain its strategy, and keep producing oil at maximum production.
As for oil analysts, they are at odds over what that will mean for prices."
Source: http://qz.com/604756/the-us-bet-big-...ing-the-price/

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: 2013 Review and 2014 Forecast - Part I: The Last Bubble - Eric Janszen

CHECK This out the GREEDOMETER

This guy has is own flow index (a bit like this itulip.com/Pages/StockMarketTiming.aspx?65tf=2252_rtt-flow-index), but watch the video...The video supports the of a very bad 2016 for stocks.

He got the Jan 2016 sell off spot on!

Thanks icm63, fascinating video.

On the topic of greed, I like this quote from the Financial Times:

“Greed will always be with us. Dumb laws are optional.”

[santafe2]

Re: 2013 Review and 2014 Forecast - Part I: The Last Bubble - Eric Janszen

In February 2015, Saudi energy minister Ali Naimi pondered aloud whether petro-states might suffer a black swan event, with oil demand drying up entirely by 2050. And then what would the Saudis do? It seemed like an off-the-cuff philosophical contemplation.
But Verleger suggests that it wasn’t—that the larger message of the current bedlam is that we are watching the autumn of the oil industry.
“Producing countries understand that oil not produced today may never be produced,” Verleger told Quartz. “Saudi Arabia was the first nation to come to this understanding. In response, they and other countries have acted to make sure their low-cost oil is produced first while the high-cost oil in nations such as Venezuela and Canada are left permanently in the ground.”
The notion sounds slightly wacky—does Saudi Arabia seriously believe the oil age is coming to an end? Saudi Aramco chairman Khalid al-Falih did say recently that the country intends to maintain its strategy, and keep producing oil at maximum production.
As for oil analysts, they are at odds over what that will mean for prices."
Source: http://qz.com/604756/the-us-bet-big-...ing-the-price/

We talked about this briefly a year ago.

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...ight=Ali+Naimi

[vt]

Re: 2013 Review and 2014 Forecast - Part I: The Last Bubble - Eric Janszen

Maybe Hawking will convince them that mini Black Holes will be the energy of the future:

http://www.express.co.uk/news/scienc...uld-destroy-us

[Polish_Silver]

Re: 2013 Review and 2014 Forecast - Part I: The Last Bubble - Eric Janszen

Thanks icm63, fascinating video.

On the topic of greed, I like this quote from the Financial Times:

“Greed will always be with us. Dumb laws are optional.”

My version: Central banks and public guarantees for bank leverage are optional.


Contrary to Thatcher, there are always alternatives.

[Chris Coles]

Re: 2013 Review and 2014 Forecast - Part I: The Last Bubble - Eric Janszen

Re. oil I found this: "Not all the analysts missed the clues. In 2012, with oil north of $100 a barrel, where the consensus said the price had to be in order to incentivize sufficient production to feed demand, oil economist Michael Lynch told an OPEC conference that the sustainable price of petroleum was $50 to $60 a barrel. He was more or less laughed out of the room. Around the same time, Philip Verleger, an oil economist who runs a consulting firm out of Colorado, predicted Saudi’s war—in a May 2012 note to clients, he forecast a “Lehman event,” referring to the pivotal role of the 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers in the financial crash.
Verleger is a ribald iconoclast with an encyclopedic knowledge of industry history, and a penchant for deriding the judgment of seemingly everyone else analyzing the market. In the Lehman note, he predicted that Saudi Arabia would do as it did in 1985—flood the market—and he timed it for later in 2012. Prices would plunge, he said. Even though the bull run went another two years, Verleger arguably still had more clarity than his peers.
What comes next?

In February 2015, Saudi energy minister Ali Naimi pondered aloud whether petro-states might suffer a black swan event, with oil demand drying up entirely by 2050. And then what would the Saudis do? It seemed like an off-the-cuff philosophical contemplation.
But Verleger suggests that it wasn’t—that the larger message of the current bedlam is that we are watching the autumn of the oil industry.
“Producing countries understand that oil not produced today may never be produced,” Verleger told Quartz. “Saudi Arabia was the first nation to come to this understanding. In response, they and other countries have acted to make sure their low-cost oil is produced first while the high-cost oil in nations such as Venezuela and Canada are left permanently in the ground.”
The notion sounds slightly wacky—does Saudi Arabia seriously believe the oil age is coming to an end? Saudi Aramco chairman Khalid al-Falih did say recently that the country intends to maintain its strategy, and keep producing oil at maximum production.
As for oil analysts, they are at odds over what that will mean for prices."
Source: http://qz.com/604756/the-us-bet-big-...ing-the-price/

There is another way to look at Saudi Arabia's continuing drive to pump oil. I remind everyone that it was not so long ago that there were people that believed the Saudi's were over-stating their reserves. Again we also had a statistician who warned about how the flow might stop unexpectedly. Is it at all possible that they have worked out that they are about to run the wells dry?

If they left things as they are and they do run dry, while oil is priced at a level to enhance their competition's economies, they will create the worst case for their own economy; no income from oil sales while their competitors are well financed and able to quickly exploit their difficulties.

If that is the case, then it would make a lot of sense to run their competitors into the ground beforehand. This way, they at least will have time to adjust their own economy while the oil market adjusts from the effects of their massive pumping operation.

Beat down the rest until they run out would surely make sense in that case?

[Southernguy]

Re: 2013 Review and 2014 Forecast - Part I: The Last Bubble - Eric Janszen

I lack the knowledge to answer an, in my opinion, key question: How much would oil prices surge if Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and the main Gulf producing countries (let's suppose Iran and Russia don't come into the agreement) decide to reduce production say, for example, 10%?
My guts tell me that it would be much more than 10%.
If that is true, then there is no logical explanation from the supposed reasons: SA is trying to put other producers out of the market and gain market share.
If oil is an exhaustible product there seems to be no point in over producing to gain market share. Once the oil is sold you don't have it anymore. It's gone forever, there is no replacement. If the policy makes any point in the very shortest time frame it does not in the slightly longer one. And I am talking of few decades away.
So the other explanation, fear of an end of the oil era because of environmental regulation has a true point.
But, again, the question I pointed above should be answered first.
Some knowleadgable Itulipers may be, by now, quite fed up with this discussion. I apologize, but it's that I am simply very doubtfull on the matter.


QUOTE=Chris Coles;301588]There is another way to look at Saudi Arabia's continuing drive to pump oil. I remind everyone that it was not so long ago that there were people that believed the Saudi's were over-stating their reserves. Again we also had a statistician who warned about how the flow might stop unexpectedly. Is it at all possible that they have worked out that they are about to run the wells dry?

If they left things as they are and they do run dry, while oil is priced at a level to enhance their competition's economies, they will create the worst case for their own economy; no income from oil sales while their competitors are well financed and able to quickly exploit their difficulties.

If that is the case, then it would make a lot of sense to run their competitors into the ground beforehand. This way, they at least will have time to adjust their own economy while the oil market adjusts from the effects of their massive pumping operation.

Beat down the rest until they run out would surely make sense in that case?[/QUOTE]

[santafe2]

Re: 2013 Review and 2014 Forecast - Part I: The Last Bubble - Eric Janszen

How much would oil prices surge if saudi arabia, venezuela and the main gulf producing countries (let's suppose iran and russia don't come into the agreement) decide to reduce production say, for example, 10%?
My guts tell me that it would be much more than 10%.
If that is true, then there is no logical explanation from the supposed reasons: Sa is trying to put other producers out of the market and gain market share.

SG you have to ask yourself what happened the last time oil was in short enough supply that it moved into the $80-$100 range for a few years. I don't think the Saudis want to lose control of their market again. And as the low price producer, this is their market. Thirty dollar oil isn't great for them but it's much less great for other producers, including almost all of ours in North America. At some point supply and demand will balance and oil prices will move up. GRG says it will happen soon. When it does, the trick will be to keep prices in a range where competition is moderated and the Saudis can maintain their market share.

[verdo]

Re: 2013 Review and 2014 Forecast - Part I: The Last Bubble - Eric Janszen

Looks like the markets gave up pretty much gave up all the gains it made last week.

[ProdigyofZen]

Re: 2013 Review and 2014 Forecast - Part I: The Last Bubble - Eric Janszen

Markets still taking a pounding.

Watch for a large drop on Monday if China reports more than $130B+ FX reserve depletion.

The Nasdaq is losing it, I am hearing a few hedge funds forced liquidations in many positions.

Not looking good, all self-reinforcing.

[santafe2]

Re: 2013 Review and 2014 Forecast - Part I: The Last Bubble - Eric Janszen

Markets still taking a pounding.

Watch for a large drop on Monday if China reports more than $130B+ FX reserve depletion.

The Nasdaq is losing it, I am hearing a few hedge funds forced liquidations in many positions.

Not looking good, all self-reinforcing.

Yuan depreciation coming soon? Would help stem outflows.

[GRG55]

Re: 2013 Review and 2014 Forecast - Part I: The Last Bubble - Eric Janszen

Yuan depreciation coming soon? Would help stem outflows.

Doubtful.

To stem outflows would require a depreciation of sufficient magnitude to convince that the move is over and there is little to no remaining risk of further devaluation. Anything less will simply accelerate outflows in anticipation of more.

That is why i believe the Chinese authorities are now trapped, and trying to hold the Yuan as one part of their increasingly hamfisted efforts to control capital movements without adversely harming trade related flows. Good luck...

[santafe2]

Re: 2013 Review and 2014 Forecast - Part I: The Last Bubble - Eric Janszen

Doubtful.

To stem outflows would require a depreciation of sufficient magnitude to convince that the move is over and there is little to no remaining risk of further devaluation. Anything less will simply accelerate outflows in anticipation of more.

That is why i believe the Chinese authorities are now trapped, and trying to hold the Yuan as one part of their increasingly hamfisted efforts to control capital movements without adversely harming trade related flows. Good luck...

We'll see. They've got 3.3T today and likely 3.2T on Monday. I still like their chances to get out of this trap.