The Post-Market Economy - Part I: Chaos on Planet ZIRP - Eric Janszen

[Chris Coles]

Re: The Post-Market Economy - Part I: Chaos on Planet ZIRP - Eric Janszen

I'm going to return to my own point; which is, they cannot do it. Their threat is all washed up upon the shores of their previous grandstanding about "Free Trade". This is a classic circumstance of the bankrupt; all gas and no trousers.

You cannot buy your way out; you are classically over borrowed and do not have the income to allow you to follow through. All you have is massive military power that you cannot use if you have not been attacked. Great stores of weapons with nothing else but the ongoing desire to dominate the planet.

Nothing better illustrates the total failure of the long term US foreign policy.

If China turns the screw without using military power; instead using financial and trading power......... you do not have anything left but hubris.

[lektrode]

Re: The Post-Market Economy - Part I: Chaos on Planet ZIRP - Eric Janszen

....
If China turns the screw without using military power; instead using financial and trading power......... you do not have anything left but hubris.

+1
and thats the 800lb gorrilla, mr C.

[Woodsman]

Re: The Post-Market Economy - Part I: Chaos on Planet ZIRP - Eric Janszen

well.. fair enough, guess i am as well - so...



dunno about anybody else, woody - but its worth more than that - since you back it up more than most - so (I) gotta respect that.



never happens, woods - yer stuff fascinates me - bet you kept your charges awake better n most, too



my heydays were from 77-82, the peak of my skibum 'career' - altho i guess the/my daze from the late 90's thru 2008 werent all that bad either - but 2009 on has been a DISASTER (and _still_ hoping for some change i can believe in over the next 10 - but figger that wont begin to happen til _after_ 2016 - IF we/The US can make it that long...)



thats just my point - i dont think they are in consideration - not by US 'leadership'

my guess JFK and his jointchiefs would've wet themselves ROTFL(their)AO at whats happened since 20jan2009

and methinks Ike's would've cried.

my other point?

best as eye can tell by whats been happnin (since 09) is that we mights well just close most if not all of the overseas .mil bases - cept for the strategic air/sub bases - and BRING ALL THE TROOPS HOME.

since The US no longer has the will (balls) to USE the awesome power that TRILLIONS AND TRILLIONS have been spent (mostly wasted) on developing it - and events since 09 - in particular - have proven it.

esp when the farce of - SYRIAOUSLY ?? - the recent exploits in the mideast are concerned

then we have the other JFK - the same one that was FOR the wars - both nam and iraq - until he threw his medals at the whitehouse while partyin with jane&co - and now he's all gung-ho again ? - what - he dont really think he can beat ole hilary, now do he?

;)

Forbes Kerry v. HillBill? Please, isn't there some other television show we can watch?

Because we've seen this show before and everybody knows how it ends. Anyway, it's one of those "to be continued" episodes that keep us on the edge of our seats rooting for our favorite characters, only everybody feels sort of let down when its over and we have to wait for the next season. And there's always a next season even if sometimes the show is cancelled. Is not the career of William Shatner sufficient proof?

There's always a war movie we can watch. It's a rerun too, but they always seem to have the biggest budgets and the spectacle they produce, the human drama and whiz bang stuff; anyway, it's very compelling and hard to ignore. I will say that if ever there's doubt in the minds of the domestic television audience about the true resolve and balls to use awesome power, be assured a television show will be produced that will free a generation of any doubt. Me, I don't doubt it at all even if I stopped watching television shows altogether.

I am watching what EJ is unpacking before us over the course of the last several seasons. This is something real and really important here, certainly in the article to come soon and across the years with the Janszen Scenario, Peak Cheap Oil and now Good as Gold for Oil.

This chart seems important to me right now:


So yes, given Ka-Poom/PCO/GAGFO, the troops will come home and bases will be closed. It's just a matter of time.

I definitely agree with Chris about hubris and the limits of power, but I don't have the slightest reason to think that military, intelligence and political elites have that much self-awareness. They seem to want to know everything about us and everyone else, but act as if they know nothing at all about themselves.

[Chris Coles]

Re: The Post-Market Economy - Part I: Chaos on Planet ZIRP - Eric Janszen

All I can add is that, when I first heard about the idea that ANY nation would "sound off" about developing the ability to deliver a weapon to any part of the planet within an hour; I realised they were completely mad. What did they think ANY other nation would do in response?

When any nation's foreign policy is dominated by a military mindset that thinks in terms of total war against the rest of the planet; they inevitably destroy their credibility. At that crucial moment in history, the US threw away their credibility; every small nation will see their only way forward is to engage with everyone NOT so threatening. David and Goliath comes to mind as well.

[coolhand]

Re: The Post-Market Economy - Part I: Chaos on Planet ZIRP - Eric Janszen

Was Harrison Ford in this movie

Seriously, I'm not sure where your premise lies. Do you feel the ongoing gargantuan buildup and maintenance of the US military is in no way to hold on to the reserve currency status of the dollar? Intimidation of the larger powers, military intervention in the lesser states. That's the track record. Is it heavy handed at times? Sure. Are there times risks out run rewards? Syria seemed to be the case, at least at that moment in time.

US economic supremacy was once built on being the world's productive economy juggernaut. Now what we're seeing is the neoliberal strategy of maintaining dominance without the production trump cards. So far it's sort of working.

RE: So far it's sort of working...2 thoughts:

1. The sequester is reversing the military buildup. Obama has reportedly removed 146 senior military officers in the past 18 months. Even our local int'l airshow was cancelled for the 1st time since 1963...

2. It was working, until this article hit: http://www.china.org.cn/business/201...t_30815801.htm.

Here's the punchline from the article, which may be the most important economic development in 42 years: The Shanghai Gold Exchange plans to launch an international board in the pilot free trade zone to attract offshore yuan capital to invest in China’s mainland gold market, a senior official said Thursday. Financial reforms in the free trade zone will allow free fund transfers between the zone and offshore markets for the first time, according to a directive issued by the People’s Bank of China on Monday.

In layman's terms, this means that: THE PBOC JUST ESTABLISHED AN INTERNATIONAL GOLD TRADE SETTLEMENT STANDARD FOR THE YUAN TO CUT OUT THE DOLLAR. (all caps b/c it's enormous.)

Game, set, match for the Petrodollar arrangement.

$64,000 question now is how long until the hoi polloi realize that the $1200 price of gold is a fiction and physical at that price is the deal of the century...but you have to get physical b/c the paper price is going to zero b/c it is just a USD-denominated liability of the LBMA/COMEX/Bullion Banks/Fed & therefore worthless to settle trade with the biggest trader in the world.

Given that yesterday alone, the Shanghai Gold Exchange settled 22 tons or ~1% of global gold mine production in physical, my suspicion is that we don't have long until there is a blowup at the LBMA or COMEX: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-1...ice-slump.html

[Chris Coles]

Re: The Post-Market Economy - Part I: Chaos on Planet ZIRP - Eric Janszen

That is fascinating; pile it high and sell it cheap; generate a new market then close your grip upon it. Classic trade, not a single weapon in sight, just a smile.

[lektrode]

Re: The Post-Market Economy - Part I: Chaos on Planet ZIRP - Eric Janszen

That is fascinating; pile it high and sell it cheap; generate a new market then close your grip upon it. Classic trade, not a single weapon in sight, just a smile.

kinda like this one?

[jk]

Re: The Post-Market Economy - Part I: Chaos on Planet ZIRP - Eric Janszen

Don-

Let's talk through that scenario & see how that would play out for the US.

1. The USD is no longer GAGFO, so the US attacks someone with their military, using your point, someone with a strategic relationship with China.

2. China calls Russia. Russia announces effective immediately, they will no longer take dollars for their oil, only gold valued at $50,000/oz. Iran & Venezuela quickly follow suit.

3. While this is still a minority of global oil production, it is enough of a quorum to reset the global price of oil & supplant the USD as the global oil currency with gold.

4. Imports of oil into the US come to a halt. All the US can consume only what it produces. Canada & Mexico both chip in what they can, but it comes out that China has existing contracts for big %'s of both nations oil & not only is China willing to pay the new "gold price" for their oil, China is threatening both Canada & Mexico with a 100% shut down of rare earth supplies (China supplies 95% of the world's rare earths) & a 100% shutdown of exported goods that fill both nation's stores.

5. As a result, US oil supplies fall from 15m b/d to a little over 8m b/d in less than a week's time. Gasoline goes to $10/gallon in the US and 1970s oil lines break out. Except in 2013, the US runs a JIT inventory system for the entire economy, powered by trucks, not trains. Food stores empty in hours. Medicine supplies run out in days. Old and sick patients with chronic diseases begin dying slow deaths by the end of 2 weeks.

6. The US gov't rations gasoline to only the US military, emergency workers & farmers. The US economy begins to shut down...GDP falls at a 20% annual clip. The bond market sees this and begins to sell off as it realizes the record levels of debt were taken under expectations of full supplies of cheap oil that no longer exist...interest rates hit 15% and the US enters a hyper inflationary death spiral - home values crash, bank stocks collapse, US Federal interest expense represents 80-90% of Federal tax collections at 15%...

7. China shuts down 100% of rare earth shipments to the US & its allies...computer & military hardware production stops...cell phone/comms infrastructure begins developing gaps within a month.

8. Within 1 month, US oil production begins to fall rapidly as workers can't get to the remote locations where oil is produced or as they stop coming because they have to take care of their families that are starving and dying for lack of supplies caused by the breakdown of the JIT consumer & medicine economy.

9. Washington is now faced with a choice - continue trying to wage war with a starving populace or deploy nuclear weapons knowing that Chinese nuke subs are likely undetected off the coasts of your major cities or seek peace terms.

The US military is not a tool we can use in this case i fear. My suspicion is that some version of the above was realized one way or another by Washington which would explain why we backed down v. Russia & China in Syria...the 1st time the US military has backed down since the Berlin Wall fell...

the implausibility of this scenario is revealed by thinking about what is happening in the parts of the world you don't mention. most signifcantly, what is happening in europe? what is happening inside china?

[vt]

Re: The Post-Market Economy - Part I: Chaos on Planet ZIRP - Eric Janszen

The U.S. did not back down in Syria. The American people stood united and said "Enough!".

[sunpearl71]

Re: The Post-Market Economy - Part I: Chaos on Planet ZIRP - Eric Janszen

Maybe free trade but on the dominant power's terms (i.e. you must use British ships)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Navigation_Acts

Or you use the dominant power's currency (i.e. USD) as it happens now through Bretton Woods and the petro-dollar.

[Chris Coles]

Re: The Post-Market Economy - Part I: Chaos on Planet ZIRP - Eric Janszen

the implausibility of this scenario is revealed by thinking about what is happening in the parts of the world you don't mention. most signifcantly, what is happening in europe? what is happening inside china?

Then let us look at one aspect. It would appear that within the report regarding Gold once held in London, that it was further refined to raise it standard before being shipped. Why would anyone either do that, or for that matter report it? There must have been a suspicion of the underlying quality of the Gold being held. Ergo, China will only accept shipment of Gold with a recently proven provenance created by recent smelting. That simple fact is very significant; meaning that all present stocks of Gold are assumed to be suspect value.

All that gold (26 million ounces) has been transferred from London and has gone to Switzerland where it has been recast to higher grade formats and shipped off to Hong Kong and then to China never to return.”

[akt]

Re: The Post-Market Economy - Part I: Chaos on Planet ZIRP - Eric Janszen

RE: So far it's sort of working...2 thoughts:

1. The sequester is reversing the military buildup. Obama has reportedly removed 146 senior military officers in the past 18 months. Even our local int'l airshow was cancelled for the 1st time since 1963...

2. It was working, until this article hit: http://www.china.org.cn/business/201...t_30815801.htm.

Given that yesterday alone, the Shanghai Gold Exchange settled 22 tons or ~1% of global gold mine production in physical, my suspicion is that we don't have long until there is a blowup at the LBMA or COMEX: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-1...ice-slump.html

Mr. Coolhand, I have a question for you if you could spare a few moments. Would the current shale oil boom that can be exported to other parts of the world not extend the life of the system some more. Why break the system when there is enough oil to go around (temporarily maybe)? So plan for the future and let today's system go on. Maybe 10 more years worth of time before oil production declines happen.

[Slimprofits]

Re: The Post-Market Economy - Part I: Chaos on Planet ZIRP - Eric Janszen

Bloomberg journalists take note of link between crude oil and gold, sort of:


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...omy-grows.html

[shiny!]

Re: The Post-Market Economy - Part I: Chaos on Planet ZIRP - Eric Janszen

Bloomberg journalists take note of link between crude oil and gold, sort of:


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...omy-grows.html

I don't think these reporters have a clue. From the article you linked above:

A five-year-long link between crude oil and gold has come apart as the economic recovery boosts energy consumption and lowers the metal’s appeal as a haven, encouraging investors to buy oil and sell gold.

Then from this article also at Bloomberg:

Gold Jumps Most in Nine Months as Silver Soars on Fed
By Debarati Roy Jun 19, 2014 12:51 PM PT

Gold surged the most in nine months and silver jumped to a 13-week high as the Federal Reserve said U.S. interest rates will remain low, driving the dollar down and boosting demand for the metals as alternative investments.

Thank God for iTulip!

[Slimprofits]

Re: The Post-Market Economy - Part I: Chaos on Planet ZIRP - Eric Janszen

I don't think these reporters have a clue. From the article you linked above:



Then from this article also at Bloomberg:

No of course not, or they wouldn't be in that business. What you pointed out, happens every day. The articles, particularly about market moves, are such utter nonsense that it's funny.