The Post-Market Economy - Part I: Chaos on Planet ZIRP - Eric Janszen

[icm63]

Re: The Post-Market Economy - Part I: Chaos on Planet ZIRP - Eric Janszen

Yes this does matter, "The stall-out since 2001 due to flat oil price and falling U.S. oil imports, oil trade deficit, and resulting foreign USD reserves accumulation "

But ...

The physical vs paper gold is all puffery.

Does this not matter?
JPM morgan Bullion Bank physical gold reserves very low.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...t-three-months

ABN AMRO defaulted on physical gold settlements and offered cash or GLD shares instead.

Jim Sinclair suggest that the COMEX as very near to offer GLD shares and or CASH for physical gold settlements maybe as early as July 2013
http://www.jsmineset.com/2013/06/30/jims-mailbox-1298/
http://www.jsmineset.com/2013/06/28/...ir-50000-gold/

Supply and Demand rules in commodity markets, has done for years!

[BadJuju]

Re: The Post-Market Economy - Part I: Chaos on Planet ZIRP - Eric Janszen

What makes this any different than any of the other instances of this in the past few years with the COMEX?

[icm63]

Re: The Post-Market Economy - Part I: Chaos on Planet ZIRP - Eric Janszen

What makes this any different than any of the other instances of this in the past few years with the COMEX?

COMEX has yet to offer CASH or GLD shares instend of physical settlement, that is different is it not. If this happens Jim Sinclair says Gold price to the moon!

[BadJuju]

Re: The Post-Market Economy - Part I: Chaos on Planet ZIRP - Eric Janszen

Yeah, I doubt it. Sounds like a gold bug wet dream.

[icm63]

Re: The Post-Market Economy - Part I: Chaos on Planet ZIRP - Eric Janszen

Yeah, I doubt it. Sounds like a gold bug wet dream.

I remember when it was a gold bug's wet dream that the FED would 'monetize it debt'. Folks never believed they would. Funny how the 'never' becomes the 'norm'!

[BadJuju]

Re: The Post-Market Economy - Part I: Chaos on Planet ZIRP - Eric Janszen

I remember when it was a gold bug's wet dream that the FED would 'monetize it debt'. Folks never believed they would. Funny how the 'never' becomes the 'norm'!

Doesn't matter. Much less esoteric and fantastical ideas about gold out there. Anything that sounds too good to be true is.

Anyway, if it happens, so what? We all end up much richer.

[Slimprofits]

Re: The Post-Market Economy - Part I: Chaos on Planet ZIRP - Eric Janszen

The Stock Market Crash of 1987: A Macro-Finance Perspective

Author	Jeremy J. Siegel
Publisher	Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research, 1988

finance.wharton.upenn.edu/~rlwctr/papers/8824.PDF

Because of the general upward movement in interest rates throughout 1987, especially during the late summer and early fall, the theoretical valuation of equity prices based on the consensus forecasts dropped sharply from 248 in December, 1986 to 186 in the following September, and a low of 171 on October 19.

However, the stock market continued to rise through the spring and summer of 1987, seemingly ignoring the impact of the rise in interest rates on the valuation of corporate equities. Actual stock prices shifted from levels consistent with the consensus valuation of future profits in December 1986 to, and finally in September, above the level based on the most optimistic forecasters. The depressing effect of the rising equity discount rate almost exactly offset the increasingly optimistic profit forecasts of the "High" forecasters so that optimistic valuation of the S&P 500 of 340 in August of 1987, virtually matched the 337 level of the prior December. In September, the rising interest rates brought theoretical valuation based on the optimistic forecasters below the actual value of stock prices for the first time in 1987.

[icm63]

Re: The Post-Market Economy - Part I: Chaos on Planet ZIRP - Eric Janszen

Doesn't matter. Much less esoteric and fantastical ideas about gold out there. Anything that sounds too good to be true is.

Anyway, if it happens, so what? We all end up much richer.

Jes, take a chill pill, and don't write the same way you speak to your dog.

[jk]

Re: The Post-Market Economy - Part I: Chaos on Planet ZIRP - Eric Janszen

from kuppy:

I’ve already noted the massive sales from leveraged futures traders and ETF holders. Let’s talk about sentiment as—this is a true wash-out. According to market vane, at the end of May, gold bulls were down to 40%, the lowest reading since 2001 at the end of the last bear market. Since then, gold has dropped another 15%. Where is sentiment now? For a point of reference, at the lows in 2008, sentiment bottomed at 53% bulls. Another popular gauge now shows that gold newsletters—the people who market to gold investors—are suggesting that their readers be net short. Have you ever met a lot of retail gold investors? These guys aren’t they type that sell their gold. A whole lot of true believers are now either on the sidelines, or short. This will be rocket fuel when the trend does turn.

I have seen many wash-outs over my life. After a certain point, the selling just begets more selling. There is no rational reason for this. Instead, margin calls are exacerbated by longs who cannot take the pain of losses. We are in a world where portfolio managers are asked to produce performance daily. How long can you hold on when your position keeps dropping? The trick if you believe in an asset that is experiencing a wash-out bottom is to stop watching the daily action. These wash-out moves tend to be the most jagged and erratic at the very end of the move—it’s counterproductive to try and guess the exact low and you will probably be wrong before you are right. Keep some powder dry, but if you liked gold in the $1,600s at the start of the year, you must really love it in the low $1,200s.

There is no way to know if the bottom is in, but for long term owners, this sure creates a lot of opportunity. Let’s just say that I’m pretty long...

[icm63]

Re: The Post-Market Economy - Part I: Chaos on Planet ZIRP - Eric Janszen

Is the bottom in?

This is perfect touch on the 1x2 Weekly Gann Angle (vai www.readtheticker.com)

How to make image larger???

GLD20130629.jpg

[shiny!]

Re: The Post-Market Economy - Part I: Chaos on Planet ZIRP - Eric Janszen

Is the bottom in?

This is perfect touch on the 1x2 Weekly Gann Angle (vai www.readtheticker.com)

How to make image larger???

[ATTACH=CONFIG]4957[/ATTACH]

In the Advanced editor window, either click or right-click or double-click (offhand I can't remember which) your mouse on the image. That should bring up a menu of sizing choices for you. By default it's a thumbnail. Select Full Size or something appropriate.

HTH.

[BadJuju]

Re: The Post-Market Economy - Part I: Chaos on Planet ZIRP - Eric Janszen

Jes, take a chill pill, and don't write the same way you speak to your dog.

It is all tone of text, so no offense intended.

[gwynedd1]

Re: The Post-Market Economy - Part I: Chaos on Planet ZIRP - Eric Janszen

The idea of gold was the doubt in the existence of a powerful sovereign debt being a trusted unit of exchange. Europe killed itself with Austerity; Japan is still trapped in 1990; India is still The West's call center; and China isn't becoming the world's consumer. No one stepped up and so the $USD is GAGFO. No sovereign or private citizen in the world was willing to go into debt. That has changed and once again US private citizens came to the rescue to deplete their savings.

[coolhand]

Re: The Post-Market Economy - Part I: Chaos on Planet ZIRP - Eric Janszen

The idea of gold was the doubt in the existence of a powerful sovereign debt being a trusted unit of exchange. Europe killed itself with Austerity; Japan is still trapped in 1990; India is still The West's call center; and China isn't becoming the world's consumer. No one stepped up and so the $USD is GAGFO. No sovereign or private citizen in the world was willing to go into debt. That has changed and once again US private citizens came to the rescue to deplete their savings.

"EU killed itself with Austerity" - that's the Western, USD/IMF view of what EU did. The alternative view might be that they are managing their currency in a manner by which to keep it attractive to net exporter nations during a time of growing scarcity of critical resources, most important of those oil (per EJ.)

No one is still talking about what the EU did that is so important to gold - when they bailed-in Cyprus & recently re-confirmed what EU officials said at the time ("This is the template for future bail-ins"), they did something that should've truly boned up all the gold bugs in the world, but given what has happened to physical supplies since then, only seems to have caught the attention of Easterners who understand "money" much better than Westerners.

The EU "lent" Cyprus $9B for 3 years. The 3-yr paper presumably yielded close to what 3-yr paper the world over yields - basically 0%. 0% bonds are basically the same as cash according to monetary theory (a US dollar says right on it that it is a "note", basically a 0% bond of zero maturity.)

In return, Cyprus sent the EU 10 tons of gold.

So far, so good. So what is $9B of "cash equivalent 3-yr bonds" divided by 10 tons of gold, you ask? (if you're not asking, you should be, b/c judging by what's happened to global physical gold supplies since Cyprus, someone's been asking).

$9B/10 tons of gold = $28,000 per ounce....

And for real shits & giggles, think about this...if you revalue all of the gold in the EU to $28,000/oz, guess what you get? You fully collateralize the $3T in EU sovereign debt...ie EU's debt crisis is OVER...

So what is the more effective means of managing a crisis - revalue the gold to offest the debt, thereby preserving the purchasing power of the euro-denominated debt of exporting nations & massively increasing the purchasing power of their gold while at the same time cutting gov't spending through austerity (the EU way), or...

Back stop everything, have the gov't turbo charge its borrowings, with that debt monetized in ever-increasing amounts by the Fed (the Krugman-supported, US/Japan way)?

The latter makes all the sense in the world to the US, but it makes no sense for net exporter countries for the long term...and now that we are into year 5 of this, we are now long-term...

[BadJuju]

Re: The Post-Market Economy - Part I: Chaos on Planet ZIRP - Eric Janszen

The latter makes all the sense in the world to the US, but it makes no sense for net exporter countries for the long term...and now that we are into year 5 of this, we are now long-term...

Considering how much of an abject failure the EU has been so far, how anyone can ascribe the kind of Machiavellian planning all of what you are saying entails just stumps me.