Reality Check, Election Edition – Part I: 1936 Election Recycled - Eric Janszen

[Munger]

Re: Reality Check, Election Edition – Part I: 1936 Election Recycled - Eric Janszen

Perhaps my question was too loosely worded. More clearly: Isn't the exaggerated appearance of the "spike" simply a byproduct of displaying 1/(near-zero-interest-rate)? By that I mean, 1/.25 -> 1/.2 will appear much larger than 1/1 -> 1/.95, but is the amplified appearance of the former meaningful?

> 1) Why have interest rates never behaved this way since 1860?

Because we've never been this close to the zero bound?

[charliebrown]

Re: Reality Check, Election Edition – Part I: 1936 Election Recycled - Eric Janszen

can one get a true picture of unemployment by looking at the payroll tax income? We have to account for the reduction in taxation, but here (us) anyone who makes less than roughly 100k pays the full freight of this tax. If the amount collected is increasing, more people are working or working longer or working for more wages. I'm sure Mr. Bart could find this series. a quick look at the site does not show the data i am interested in.

[EJ]

Re: Reality Check, Election Edition – Part I: 1936 Election Recycled - Eric Janszen

Perhaps my question was too loosely worded. More clearly: Isn't the exaggerated appearance of the "spike" simply a byproduct of displaying 1/(near-zero-interest-rate)? By that I mean, 1/.25 -> 1/.2 will appear much larger than 1/1 -> 1/.95, but is the amplified appearance of the former meaningful?

> 1) Why have interest rates never behaved this way since 1860?

Because we've never been this close to the zero bound?

Or so quickly.

Why?

[bart]

Re: Reality Check, Election Edition – Part I: 1936 Election Recycled - Eric Janszen

can one get a true picture of unemployment by looking at the payroll tax income? We have to account for the reduction in taxation, but here (us) anyone who makes less than roughly 100k pays the full freight of this tax. If the amount collected is increasing, more people are working or working longer or working for more wages. I'm sure Mr. Bart could find this series. a quick look at the site does not show the data i am interested in.

I've tracked raw withholding data for years.


Individual:







Corporate:

[charliebrown]

Re: Reality Check, Election Edition – Part I: 1936 Election Recycled - Eric Janszen

thanks bart. this is personal income tax right? Do you have fica taxes? That would exclude stuff like cap gains, interest income and deductions. hence i would think it would be a better barometer for true employment.

[bart]

Re: Reality Check, Election Edition – Part I: 1936 Election Recycled - Eric Janszen

thanks bart. this is personal income tax right? Do you have fica taxes? That would exclude stuff like cap gains, interest income and deductions. hence i would think it would be a better barometer for true employment.

Yes, both are income taxes.

I just took a quick look at the source (http://fms.treas.gov/dts/index.html) and didn't see anything for FICA. I use Table 4 for the raw data for what its worth.

[jk]

Re: Reality Check, Election Edition – Part I: 1936 Election Recycled - Eric Janszen

can one get a true picture of unemployment by looking at the payroll tax income? We have to account for the reduction in taxation, but here (us) anyone who makes less than roughly 100k pays the full freight of this tax. If the amount collected is increasing, more people are working or working longer or working for more wages. I'm sure Mr. Bart could find this series. a quick look at the site does not show the data i am interested in.

there must be a federal data series on fica receipts. the total receipts column, here, for example. http://www.ssa.gov/oact/progdata/fyOps.html
also some people do collect similar kinds of data privately. for example, the liscio report publishes: "two proprietary surveys of state withholding and sales tax receipts". unfortunately, subscription is $7500.yr. i have their free blog on my google reader page.

[jtabeb]

Re: Reality Check, Election Edition – Part I: 1936 Election Recycled - Eric Janszen

I call this policy Energy Isolationism. We are discussing this idea in the forums in Part II.

Oops! Sorry about that.

[metalman]

Re: Reality Check, Election Edition – Part I: 1936 Election Recycled - Eric Janszen

posted this to part ii re ej's election forecast...

'Stock and commodity markets will react negatively to an Obama win in anticipation of government spending reductions and recession. The dollar and UST will strengthen.'

assessment...

stocks down... check



commodities down... check.



us treasuries up... check.



dollar up... check.




4 out of 4!

[jtabeb]

Re: Reality Check, Election Edition – Part I: 1936 Election Recycled - Eric Janszen

posted this to part ii re ej's election forecast...

'Stock and commodity markets will react negatively to an Obama win in anticipation of government spending reductions and recession. The dollar and UST will strengthen.'

assessment...

stocks down... check



commodities down... check.



us treasuries up... check.



dollar up... check.




4 out of 4!

And, The "fourth currency" just keeps on trucking....
gold.gif

[Polish_Silver]

Dying from Medical Insurance

. . . I'd advise the candidates to work harder to understand the problem. Instead I expect tax, healthcare, regulation, and other public policy matters related to the labor market to be decided in favor of special interests, in particular the FIRE sector, although the real estate sector does appear to be losing steam in Washington. Personally I think it will be a huge boom to businesses of all sizes in the U.S. to get corporations out of the business of paying for employee's healthcare. But the I in FIRE is going strong and the grossly inefficient single-payer system managed by insurance companies will persist. In fact either Obamacare of Romneycare writ large will cement it in place.

Truer words were never spoken! Here are some problems we face:

1) employers have every incentive to avoid hiring older or sickly workers, even when competent. Although illegal, this would be hard to prosecute.

2) Neither patients nor physicians have incentive to be cost effective, since prices are fixed by the insurance companies.

3) Prices are opaque---very hard to know what procedures and tests cost ahead of time, so "comparison shopping" very difficult.

4) Drugs here cost 30X what they do in europe. Total Outrage! I've thought of starting a business-- US bound people would use google to find people traveling in europe, and buy the drug indirectly. My wife has "smuggled" items to people here several times.

5) Obama Care does not do a thing about the above problems.

[jpatter666]

Re: Dying from Medical Insurance

Truer words were never spoken! Here are some problems we face:

1) employers have every incentive to avoid hiring older or sickly workers, even when competent. Although illegal, this would be hard to prosecute.

2) Neither patients nor physicians have incentive to be cost effective, since prices are fixed by the insurance companies.

3) Prices are opaque---very hard to know what procedures and tests cost ahead of time, so "comparison shopping" very difficult.

4) Drugs here cost 30X what they do in europe. Total Outrage! I've thought of starting a business-- US bound people would use google to find people traveling in europe, and buy the drug indirectly. My wife has "smuggled" items to people here several times.

5) Obama Care does not do a thing about the above problems.

I agree completely on drugs. I remember going to the drugstore to get a supply of anti-malarial pills for an upcoming trip. WITH insurance the cost was something like $400-500. On a whim I dropped by a local Walmart because I'd heard they were carrying often-used drugs.

$40 -- without any insurance.

Something is really rotten here -- we constantly get nickeled and dimed anytime we have a medical visit, with bills coming in months afterward for things we barely remember. And we supposedly have high-end insurance.

[bart]

Re: Dying from Medical Insurance

[jk]

Re: Dying from Medical Insurance

an increasing number of my patients are getting their meds from canada. i usually refer them to the aggregation site [provided here as a public service! ;-) ] http://www.pharmacychecker.com/

[jabberwocky]

Re: Dying from Medical Insurance

Obama wants a national single payer system. How better to accomplish it's implimentation, than to have the present, utterly corrupted system destroy itself via it's own rapacity? I am not suggesting that this is explicitly aimed at, but he is a "community organizer", and this election proved his ability to bring out his vote, contrary to his opposition's belief. It appears to me that he believes the end justifies the means. He is the "new man".