Ka-Poom Theory Update Two – Part I: Bang or a whimper - Eric Janszen

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Ka-Poom Theory Update Two – Part I: Bang or a whimper - Eric Janszen

I regret that grammatical and spelling errors are perceived as inconsiderate. Unfortunately they are an unavoidable side effect of our unique process of insite discovery. We follow the path that the data take us on rather than, as is done everywhere else, search out data to support an argument. For every word you see in a finished article we throw away three and for every chart we throw away ten. Eliminating every blemish from the result is not practical.

No real complaints from me EJ......I think Astonas made a good point on the iTulip community crowd sourcing bit....the community here, particularly the ones clearly sitting at the adults table being able to help polish/clarify posts for those of us(myself included) not yet certified as finance/economic Jedi Masters.

I feel genuinely privileged to be a part of the community here....it is truly different from any other community I've been a part of online or off.

Personally, I just want to see it shaped and squeezed to fulfill it's considerable potential.....and all sorted and refined no later than yesterday.

The pursuit of excellence and all that.

The odd spelling or grammatical error is nothing....you should see the state of my office......you'd think either a 4 year old was running the place or a paper IED had just gone off.

[Chris Coles]

Re: Ka-Poom Theory Update Two – Part I: Bang or a whimper - Eric Janszen

All my posts on the likes of The Times London are done on MS Word and pasted into the newspapers web page on screen and THEN I use ieSpell which with a single right click gives me excellent spelling. I recommend it for everyone. You just write or past into the text box and a right click will complete the process in seconds. Much much better than any other.

http://www.iespell.com/

ieSpell - A Spell Checker for Internet Explorer
Introduction ieSpell is a free Internet Explorer browser extension that spell checks text input boxes on a webpage. It should come in particularly handy for users who do a lot of web-based text entry (e.g. web mails, forums, blogs, diaries). Even if your web application already includes spell checking functionality, you might still want to install this utility because it is definitely much faster than a server-side solution. Plus you get to store and use your personal word list across all your applications, instead of maintaining separate ones on each application. The program installs as a new button in the IE toolbar (as well as a new menu item under "Tools") - after filling in a form, just hit the ieSpell button and it pops up a dialog, similar to the MS Word spell check. ieSpell also works (right-click menu only) on other IE based browsers such as SlimBrowser, CrazyBrowser, MSN, MyIE, etc. ieSpell is not spyware or adware. It's free for personal use only. All other use requires a commercial license. See Licensing for more information. If you find ieSpell useful, please express your satisfaction by buying us a beer. Drunk developers create great software! Just kidding! Features Completely standalone spell checker for your web browser. Does not require Microsoft Office or any other third party components. Integrates flawlessly with Internet Explorer and other IE based browsers. Three ways to start the spell check; via the right click context menu, the toolbar or the menu bar. Supports a wide range of web applications including simple text forms, rich text editors, forums, blogs, webmail (including Outlook Web Access and Lotus iNotes) and more! Spell check in any of the 3 variants (US, UK and Canadian) of the English Language! Suggestions are sorted by the degree of closeness with the misspelled word. Intelligent suggesting for misspelled words using typographic “looks like” matching. Easily add/remove your personal words in ieSpell via an intuitive user interface! Organise your personal words in individual custom dictionaries! Share them with your friends and co-workers over the network! Integrates with Microsoft Office's proofing tools. Have ieSpell share the same copy of the custom dictionary so that when you add/remove your personal words in ieSpell, the same is reflected in Microsoft Office and vice versa! ieSpell suggested a word that you are not familiar with? Look up its meaning in an online dictionary! Powerful API for web application developers. Force users to spell check the document before submission. Ignore certain text fields. Refuse a form submission if the user cancels the spell check!

[Prazak]

Re: Ka-Poom Theory Update Two – Part I: Bang or a whimper - Eric Janszen

But in the last article there was one sentence that was jumbled in such a way that I simple could not understand it, and it's not the first time that's occurred. Clearly no one with competent editing skill is proofing the articles, and it makes me wonder why.

The phrase "I simple could not understand it" is flawed. Do you mean "I, simple, could not understand it"? Or "I simply could not understand it"?

I also think that whatever tendency causes iTulip to not take the trouble to spend one minute to run the articles through a spell checker is indicative of some underlying problem, which makes me wary of the objectivity of the economic analysis.

The phrase "to not take the trouble" is a split-infinitive. You should have written "not to take the trouble . . .".

Will I stop reading EJ's analysis because of a few spelling errors and the occasional incomprehensible senctence? Of course not.
Does the failure to use a spell checker or employ the services of a good proofreader over the last 6 years suggest some underlying problem. Yes.

Nearly a week had passed between the time EJ advertised a new installment for the following day and the time the installment arrived. It is a long, thoughtful, well-researched and, with a few niggling typos and gramm-os, lucidly written piece. I'm glad he got it out to the iTulip readership sooner rather than letting it sit another day to apply one additional polishing. The quality of the work speaks for itself. Challenge the work if you disagree, or stop reading if EJ's unwillingness to spend money on an editor truly bothers you. But carping on niggling technical errors is unbecoming.

[bart]

Re: Ka-Poom Theory Update Two – Part I: Bang or a whimper - Eric Janszen

[c1ue]

Re: Ka-Poom Theory Update Two – Part I: Bang or a whimper - Eric Janszen

China's "investment" in the USA is increasingly uneconomical, leading me to conclude that the loans are political, for leverage over US foreign policy toward China.

What does China want?

China wants the US to:

1. Acquiesce to China's USD currency peg to permit continued de-industrialization of the West
2. Leave China alone to buy Africa and gradually develop its own protection racket for Middle East Oil
3. Leave China alone as it develops Central and South America and right up to our doorstep in the Caribbean
4. Not interfere in China's thuggish treatment of its citizens
5. Fade away

This is related back to Triffin's original point that the IMS is a relic of the Cold War. China is exploiting the IMS to gain strategic leverage over the US.

Obviously I cannot answer all questions this throughly but I do when they are central to the argument.

Thank you for the glimpse.

In summary, China's ongoing investment into the US will increasingly be fueled by profits from China's exports to the ROW while the economic risks from China's internal bubble(s) will not change the trajectory of China's economic course in the next few years.

I have no disagreement with the analysis on China's strategy with respect to the US. It is similar to what I'd noted in other posts: ultimately China only has to employ wuwei in order for the US' overreach to correct itself.

Of course there are risks attendant to this strategy as well: for one thing, a purely IMS based economic restraint on a military power still presumes said power will not perform actions ranging from outright repudiation on down. While I do not believe the present US political structure would ever contemplate such actions, at the same time the increasing societal dissatisfaction in the US coupled with political stagnation ratchets up the possibility of the emergence of a demagogue.

I am a little less sanguine about the impact of burst bubbles in China; while the leadership in China is far more measured and steadfast, the population there is more volatile. China's leadership may understand that 'this too will pass', but the people may not.

[raja]

Re: Ka-Poom Theory Update Two – Part I: Bang or a whimper - Eric Janszen

The quality of the work speaks for itself. Challenge the work if you disagree, or stop reading if EJ's unwillingness to spend money on an editor truly bothers you. But carping on niggling technical errors is unbecoming.

Do you not consider that the posts of the website's founder -- its public face, and the main attraction here -- should be held to a higher standard than those of the many thousands of members? I guess not, otherwise you wouldn't be using my writing defects to make your case.

If you don't understand that already, there's probably nothing I can say that will change your mind.

[astonas]

Re: Ka-Poom Theory Update Two – Part I: Bang or a whimper - Eric Janszen

Do you not consider that the posts of the website's founder -- its public face, and the main attraction here -- should be held to a higher standard than those of the many thousands of members?

In short, no.

We all come here to learn, exchange ideas, and contribute. For this reason we should all hold ourselves to the standards we expect of others. This reciprocity of courtesy is not a function of the organization or fee structure of the site. It is based on the fact that we are civilized people.

On what basis do you consider the organization of the site to permit the suspension of basic human courtesy? I would argue that NO site's organization should allow that.

Do you believe that the waiter who serves you at a restaurant to be worthy of disdain or mistreatment just because your custom provides for their wage? If so, it is you, not they, who are worthy of disdain.

[raja]

Re: Ka-Poom Theory Update Two – Part I: Bang or a whimper - Eric Janszen

duplicate post

[bart]

Re: Ka-Poom Theory Update Two – Part I: Bang or a whimper - Eric Janszen

Hey guys - can we give it a rest please?

We know typos etc. exist and have for a while, and that there are lots of opinions in the area. I vote "so what" on a net basis.

[astonas]

Re: Ka-Poom Theory Update Two – Part I: Bang or a whimper - Eric Janszen

Hey guys - can we give it a rest please?

We know typos etc. exist and have for a while, and that there are lots of opinions in the area. I vote "so what" on a net basis.

Thanks for the reminder, bart. It's all too easy to get caught up in irrelevant garbage sometimes. I'll stop now.

[raja]

Re: Ka-Poom Theory Update Two – Part I: Bang or a whimper - Eric Janszen

I am a little less sanguine about the impact of burst bubbles in China; while the leadership in China is far more measured and steadfast, the population there is more volatile. China's leadership may understand that 'this too will pass', but the people may not.

As has happened in the past, once again EJ's conclusions are overly optimistic . . . in this case about China's future.

When the global economic crash arrives, starting with a depression in Europe, the exporting countries will all suffer, especially China. There will be no decoupling.

When China takes the big hit, the Chinese government will have its hands full with its own problems, and there will be no opportunity to pursue a plan of domination against the US. I agree with c1ue on this part.

[bart]

Re: Ka-Poom Theory Update Two – Part I: Bang or a whimper - Eric Janszen

As has happened in the past, once again EJ's conclusions are overly optimistic . . . in this case about China's future.

When the global economic crash arrives, starting with a depression in Europe, the exporting countries will all suffer, especially China. There will be no uncoupling.

When China takes the big hit, the Chinese government will have its hands full with its own problems, and there will be no opportunity to pursue a plan of domination against the US.

It's my belief that there is always time for the greed & control freaks.


I still also believe that part of the "solution" in IMS land (just corrected a typo of INS, quality Freudian moment! ;-) will involve the IMF, partly as "negotiator" between the "challenged" primary 3 or 4 players. A one world currency is very much a political solution.

[touchring]

Re: Ka-Poom Theory Update Two – Part I: Bang or a whimper - Eric Janszen

As has happened in the past, once again EJ's conclusions are overly optimistic . . . in this case about China's future.

When the global economic crash arrives, starting with a depression in Europe, the exporting countries will all suffer, especially China. There will be no uncoupling.

When China takes the big hit, the Chinese government will have its hands full with its own problems, and there will be no opportunity to pursue a plan of domination against the US.

I don't know that much about economics but one thing which I'm quite aware is that China is not a unified country as many Americans will tend to believe. Although politically unified for 2000 years, the fact remains that there are distinct cultures and even languages within China just like Europe or India. The Chinese from Hong Kong speak cantonese and are different from the Chinese from Beijing. They look different also - although not obvious to foreigners. The only difference from India and Europe is that there is a unified written language and a common lingua franca.

The other point is that individualism in China is very extreme. There is no real loyalty to the country. To every Chinese, their only loyalty is only to their own immediate family. If there's a war, no one will volunteer to fight. They will need to conscript. Chinese politicians stash money abroad at every single opportunity.

This is the reason why Chinese politicians are so scared of a slowdown. They know that the only thing that holds China together is profit. Once you take that profit away, no one knows what will happen and whether the people will revolt. Or worst, the local governments revolt against the central government.

Therefore I think we cannot make any prediction what China will do or can do 10 years from today.

[flintlock]

Re: Ka-Poom Theory Update Two – Part I: Bang or a whimper - Eric Janszen

Part of me hopes for the US to stop being boss-of-the-world. It costs all of us a ton of tax money to keep this giant military astride the planet, and I don't see that our constant meddling in things abroad has had outcomes all good for us or for them.

It might be a welcome change to become a second-tier nation among the G-8, strong but not preeminent, with our attention focused mostly within our own borders and on our own affairs. I'm getting weary of being the schoolyard bully constantly threatening to beat up the others, or being the bossy neighbor that just has to be in charge of every single thing at the church picnic and PTA.

Yes, I'd like to see a lot less "World Police" role for the US also. But I can't help but think we still should be concerned about what is going on right at our own doorstep. I mean, China may indeed be buying stuff everywhere, but why the Caribbean? The Rather report mentioned oil but I didn't realize there was much oil in that region outside of Venezuela and Mexico. Or do they have other motives? Sounds like Cold War paranoia I know.

It would be nice to know if our leadership has a plan B in case things don't work out with China. I'm thinking the trend might be towards a more inward looking, self reliant economy in the US. As some point in time, if trends continue, the world won't need us like it used to. We won't be able to make anything cheap enough. We won't necessarily have any technological advantages. Perhaps it wont be so bad to go back to a more autnomous, self-reliant economy, that is not dependent on our military to help "sell" our exports. Hopefully we will still be able to make or do something people actually want.

Actually I remember now that some of this had more to do with China gaining "friends" at the UN than anything sinister. Taiwan is locked in a long term struggle with China and they are actually wooing friends in the Caribbean as well, for the same reason.

[flintlock]

Re: Ka-Poom Theory Update Two – Part I: Bang or a whimper - Eric Janszen

Hey guys - can we give it a rest please?

We know typos etc. exist and have for a while, and that there are lots of opinions in the area. I vote "so what" on a net basis.

Amen!