Ka-Poom Theory Update Two – Preamble: Theory of a Sudden Adjustment - Eric Janszen

[jk]

Re: Ka-Poom Theory Update Two – Preamble: Theory of a Sudden Adjustment

c1ue, you didn't seem to notice that the "tax" will not be a tax. it will come as inflation. by printing and spending dollars, the gov't will expropriate resources. the costs will be imposed invisibly via higher costs to consumers and lost purchasing power for savers. that's how it worked for vietnam, when johnsons imposed a guns AND butter policy, yes leading to the need to close the gold window.

[c1ue]

Re: Ka-Poom Theory Update Two – Preamble: Theory of a Sudden Adjustment

c1ue, you didn't seem to notice that the "tax" will not be a tax. it will come as inflation. by printing and spending dollars, the gov't will expropriate resources. the costs will be imposed invisibly via higher costs to consumers and lost purchasing power for savers. that's how it worked for vietnam, when johnsons imposed a guns AND butter policy, yes leading to the need to close the gold window.

jk, do you seriously think at this point that a further acceleration of inflation without accompanying wage increases is going to go by without reaction?

Yes, I know J6P is stupid and ignorant, but they aren't congenitally so.

I hear more and more among working class people that there is something very wrong with what is happening in America right now; not just that they're working harder and getting less than ever before but that the premise of working hard to get ahead doesn't seem to be true any longer. From this simmering discontent to something more vocal and active is purely education.

From my view, I actually agree that a 'stealth tax' will be/is being employed, but my view all along is that this is exactly the medicine which brings forth an American tyrant just as Weimar's acts laid the ground for Hitler's rise.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Ka-Poom Theory Update Two – Preamble: Theory of a Sudden Adjustment

Even in the Cold War era, China had land conflicts with a number of its neighbors. In the modern era, an extension into water borders is completely unsurprising, and even less so given potential oil and natural gas deposits.

However, there are one large difference between China's tool box in its neighbors and the US' tool box in the same area: the bamboo network. There are literally tens and perhaps hundreds of millions of ethnic Chinese outside of China's borders in East Asia. In the past, many of them were antithetical to mainland China as these ethnic Chinese were in many cases refugees, or had extended family trapped/mistreated on the mainland.

Today, however, the bamboo network is mostly positive for China, because so much of the historical trade volume has picked back up with China's 'controlled market' economic strategy. Much as Taiwan businesses opening factories in mainland China has significantly split the business interests in Taiwan from the politicals, so too is this same dynamic at work in the rest of East Asia.

While having large communities of ethnic Chinese throughout Asia Pacific has some benefits for China, particularly in terms of coalface intelligence collection, there are some significant downsides.

I've seen with my own two eyes Chinese communities being burned to the ground by indigenous folks as it's actually happening.

Just as you mention J6P coming to grips with inflation destroying their purchasing power.......folks in the developing world are grasping the "bait and switch" of Chinese foreign investment being conditional and often including large numbers of Chinese workers being imported to do much more of the work than expected with the deployment of Chinese foreign investment capital.

I just saw a new bridge being constructed in Phnom Penh that the locals were quite upset about......the Chinese loaned the money for it....and provided most of the workers according to all the local tuk tuk drivers. Workers the tuk tuk drivers believe will never leave.

To me there was a distinct disdain and distaste for Thais, Vietnamese, and especially Chinese by quite a few of the Cambodian people that I met.....although culturally the Cambodians I met seemed reluctant to talk about such things so early in relationships, quite a few opened up fairly quickly and shared their feelings on the topic quite openly after a bit of reluctance.

I'm not convinced the bamboo network is always net positive in having seen it's smoldering ashes approximately 6 years ago with my own eyes.

Anecdotally, it was an eye opener......even with China being the leading foreign capital investor in Cambodia(and the US the leading export market)....the average Cambodian's desire isn't to visit, live, or be educated in, China....it's still the US led west.

The Cambodian Riel is a distant 2nd in cash transaction(nearly everything is a cash transaction) to the US Dollar......Euros are accepted by a few(the few folks we were working with from the EU were particularly disappointed by this inconvenience) and Chinese Yuan wasn't an option.

Maybe distance makes the heart grow fonder, because close proximity certainly doesn't seem to when it relates to Cambodians and other ethnicities.

I'm quite keen to return over time to see how things develop there.

[doom&gloom]

Re: Ka-Poom Theory Update Two – Preamble: Theory of a Sudden Adjustment

jk, do you seriously think at this point that a further acceleration of inflation without accompanying wage increases is going to go by without reaction?

Yes, I know J6P is stupid and ignorant, but they aren't congenitally so.

I hear more and more among working class people that there is something very wrong with what is happening in America right now; not just that they're working harder and getting less than ever before but that the premise of working hard to get ahead doesn't seem to be true any longer. From this simmering discontent to something more vocal and active is purely education.

From my view, I actually agree that a 'stealth tax' will be/is being employed, but my view all along is that this is exactly the medicine which brings forth an American tyrant just as Weimar's acts laid the ground for Hitler's rise.

1) interestingly, their education will be via the net, and it is the net thay government is now trying to "shut down" in various ways. While SOPA died, there is something coming up right in it's place between the ISP's and content providers that didn;t seem to need the CONgress. And of course the President now has his internet "kill switch" in the waiting.

2) Interestingly, all the laws Hitler needed were mostly already in place during his rise. the people had given him most ofhis powers, and by the time he had real power, they were too cowed or partisan to question them. You can see some of the same in the US today between the Patriot Act, NDAA, whatever that bill is that allows you to be arrested for demostrating near someone with Secret Service protection, etc. Our rights are being "given away" by a CONgress desperate to maintain their own power in the case of an emergency. In the end, they may one day find those same laws first used against them.

[jpatter666]

Re: Ka-Poom Theory Update Two – Preamble: Theory of a Sudden Adjustment

Just as you mention J6P coming to grips with inflation destroying their purchasing power.......folks in the developing world are grasping the "bait and switch" of Chinese foreign investment being conditional and often including large numbers of Chinese workers being imported to do much more of the work than expected with the deployment of Chinese foreign investment capital.

I just saw a new bridge being constructed in Phnom Penh that the locals were quite upset about......the Chinese loaned the money for it....and provided most of the workers according to all the local tuk tuk drivers. Workers the tuk tuk drivers believe will never leave.

To me there was a distinct disdain and distaste for Thais, Vietnamese, and especially Chinese by quite a few of the Cambodian people that I met.....although culturally the Cambodians I met seemed reluctant to talk about such things so early in relationships, quite a few opened up fairly quickly and shared their feelings on the topic quite openly after a bit of reluctance.

In Myanmar there was a dam being built that would have exported most of its electricity to China. That has stopped due to protests both environmental and anti-Chinese. In Vietnam many of the locals we spoke to were strongly anti-Chinese and even stranger highly pro-American (as an American couple traveling in Vietnam for the first time this struck us at first as highly bizarre but in time we understood it).

[c1ue]

Re: Ka-Poom Theory Update Two – Preamble: Theory of a Sudden Adjustment

While having large communities of ethnic Chinese throughout Asia Pacific has some benefits for China, particularly in terms of coalface intelligence collection, there are some significant downsides.

I've seen with my own two eyes Chinese communities being burned to the ground by indigenous folks as it's actually happening.

You say potatoe, I say potatoh.

Yes, there is absolutely all sorts of resentment by the locals to ethnic Chinese minorities. In Asia, the Chinese occupy a sort of combination Jewish/(educated moneylender tax collector) and high reproduction/high immigration foreigner niche.

However, this is a good thing for China.

Large minorities in other nations give China exactly a perfectly legitimate excuse for intervention in order to "R2P".

Large minorities with money in other nations also exert a far more powerful influence on these other governments; they're not limited to rioting but can exert the more traditional soft power capabilities of economic coercion/co-option.

Were a repeat of the Burma uprising to occur today, the results would likely be very different were China to take an interest.

I'm not convinced the bamboo network is always net positive in having seen it's smoldering ashes approximately 6 years ago with my own eyes.

Really? So you're trying to say that intra-Asia trade involving China has fallen in the past 6 years? The data would say otherwise.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Ka-Poom Theory Update Two – Preamble: Theory of a Sudden Adjustment

You say potatoe, I say potatoh.

Yes, there is absolutely all sorts of resentment by the locals to ethnic Chinese minorities. In Asia, the Chinese occupy a sort of combination Jewish/(educated moneylender tax collector) and high reproduction/high immigration foreigner niche.

However, this is a good thing for China.

Large minorities in other nations give China exactly a perfectly legitimate excuse for intervention in order to "R2P".

Large minorities with money in other nations also exert a far more powerful influence on these other governments; they're not limited to rioting but can exert the more traditional soft power capabilities of economic coercion/co-option.

Were a repeat of the Burma uprising to occur today, the results would likely be very different were China to take an interest.

And this is where my concern about China lies.......while we often read about the failings of US foreign policy here....ad infinitum....we rarely hear about China's....they have considerable culpability that is often overlooked in all the noise about the failings of the US.....Cambodia/Philippines/Myanmar/Sri Lanka...etc. Just because they are clever enough to avoid getting their own personnel killed doesn't reduce their national culpability in what could reasonably be described as genocide and the direct support of it.

Really? So you're trying to say that intra-Asia trade involving China has fallen in the past 6 years? The data would say otherwise.

No, what I'm trying to say is that I've seen with my own eyes and smelled with my own nose the smoldering ruins of Chinese communities burned to the ground in the developing world when things come to a head.....I've also heard with my own ears the seeds of anger/mistrust planted in the minds of indigenous folks directed at Chinese/China.

I think of it along the lines of JPatter666's post......it's quite surprising the positive reaction America/Americans receive from indigenous folks.....one could easily perceive otherwise.....not just one anecdotal incident, but many. I put it down to many considering the US a lesser of two evils compared with China.

After seeing first hand the complete rape/destruction of teak forests and fisheries in the developing world by Chinese interests I can see why folks might feel/act the way they do.

[doom&gloom]

Re: Ka-Poom Theory Update Two – Preamble: Theory of a Sudden Adjustment

No, what I'm trying to say is that I've seen with my own eyes and smelled with my own nose the smoldering ruins of Chinese communities burned to the ground in the developing world when things come to a head.....I've also heard with my own ears the seeds of anger/mistrust planted in the minds of indigenous folks directed at Chinese/China.

I think of it along the lines of JPatter666's post......it's quite surprising the positive reaction America/Americans receive from indigenous folks.....one could easily perceive otherwise.....not just one anecdotal incident, but many. I put it down to many considering the US a lesser of two evils compared with China.

After seeing first hand the complete rape/destruction of teak forests and fisheries in the developing world by Chinese interests I can see why folks might feel/act the way they do.

People hate Americans until they need us to save or protect their asses -- then they love us.


I encourage you all to listen ot the last Russell Napier I put up or go to the McAlvany site, it is very china focused...

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Ka-Poom Theory Update Two – Preamble: Theory of a Sudden Adjustment

People hate Americans until they need us to save or protect their asses -- then they love us.

I'm not sure what to make of it myself.......

Ultimately, many of the Cambodians I met share the same desires that Americans do.....a desire to have a fair chance at providing sufficiently for the needs of their families....and a strong willingness/hunger(often literal, not just proverbial) to survive/succeed.

While Cambodia is falling squarely into the Chinese sphere of influence and control as exemplified by it's overwhelming foreign capital investment and China's influence/control over Cambodia's foreign policy to support China's Spratley Island claim in the recent Phnom Penh ASEAN meeting, the preferred currency is the US Dollar(for now) and the preferred language besides Khmer is English.

And I think Cambodians kind of look at Americans like some sort of strange alien species.....they clearly differentiate Americans from Europeans....and I think it comes down to individual and small group behavior/dynamics....I didn't see any "ugly American" episodes while there( not to say it doesn't happen) but I did see some "ugly European Colonialists" while there......

One thing that is quite noticeable in Cambodia(as well as elsewhere in SEA) is Farang(European) with local women.

Getting beyond the obvious prostitution problem, it is quite common to see European males with indigenous females.

From talking to locals and trying to improve our English/Khmer it was fascinating to learn THEIR perspective about these many Farang/Cambodian relationships.

I was quite surprised to hear from both Khmer men and women that they thought Farang/Khmer relationships to be perfectly fine.....I perceived no animosity towards Farang for "stealing their women", far from it actually....they all seemed to see opportunity in it.

But I think the answer lies in how we respectively define our relationships......Farang tend to define relationships on an emotional level while the locals tend to define them in terms of security/stability/safety.

Coming from different perspectives it makes sense......Farang/Americans are generally generations beyond malnutrition and the foundation levels of Maslow's hierarchy of needs...so their needs are more ethereal..whereas the locals needs are far more tangible and immediate.

So when described to me in that fashion I couldn't help but think that while the Farang are looking for love, the locals are looking for a stable sponsor/patron for lack of a better term.

A rough hierarchy was also described to me with Americans and English speaking Europeans at the top of the Farang hierarchy as most suitable to partner with....then non English speaking Europeans and finally some sort of a battle between Chinese and Indians.

And it makes me wonder if that same relationship can apply between nation states in a way?

Cambodia has a Chinese boyfriend.......but used to have an American boyfriend a long time ago who beat her...maybe this American is different?

Don't know if it's relevant to the conversation of why other countries love/hate America/Americans.....but I'm pretty sure their definition of love differs from ours in some key respects.

I blame Maslow and his hierarchy.

[touchring]

Re: Ka-Poom Theory Update Two – Preamble: Theory of a Sudden Adjustment

Don't know if it's relevant to the conversation of why other countries love/hate America/Americans.....but I'm pretty sure their definition of love differs from ours in some key respects.

You may not realize it, but a white American is a big catch in many Asian societies, especially China, although not Japan I believe. Having a white American husband is a symbol of prestige even if he is just a plumber back in America.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Ka-Poom Theory Update Two – Preamble: Theory of a Sudden Adjustment

You may not realize it, but a white American is a big catch in many Asian societies, especially China, although not Japan I believe. Having a white American husband is a symbol of prestige even if he is just a plumber back in America.

Absolutely agree and it's quite noticeable......but what I found fascinating is how each side of the relationship view and define the relationship.

The white guys "win" by getting to "punch above their weight" by pulling girls most couldn't in their home countries.......and locals win because they just hit "Lotto" relatively speaking.....it seems to raise the prestige/station of the girl/family in question.

Like stories of wealthy families partnering and aligning their interests through intermarriage of their children, it would appeal the same long-term thinking and machinations are quite common amongst the poor seeking a farang to join their family.

And it seems like folks from the US are particularly sought after for some reason.....maybe Cambodia itself is looking for a farang?

Not meant to be offensive.....I did find Anghor Wat quite breathtaking and humbling....and a sledgehammer to the guts in terms of cultural longevity and fallen empire.

The west is economically, politically, militarily, and culturally dominant......but are we built to last?

I look forward to going back to the region as much as possible....I think it's going to be a real centre of gravity in the long period ahead....and it's a region where I truly have a lot of respect for the people I've met....which unfortunately I can't honestly say about every place I've visited.

[bart]

Re: Ka-Poom Theory Update Two – Preamble: Theory of a Sudden Adjustment

You may not realize it, but a white American is a big catch in many Asian societies, especially China, although not Japan I believe. Having a white American husband is a symbol of prestige even if he is just a plumber back in America.

It applies to many white American women too.

During the years she spent in China since 2006 on her Fulbright etc. (mostly in Beijing), she could have eaten dinner out every night if she had accepted all the invitations from most "social classes". Some of the invitations from the "political or military classes" were quite... ummm, "colorful" too.

[doom&gloom]

Re: Ka-Poom Theory Update Two – Preamble: Theory of a Sudden Adjustment

When I was in Estonia a few years back, I went to a local bar with a friend. There were all these STUNNING women ther, I mean truly beautiful, and very few guys with them. When I asked my friened about it, he told me that they were not interested in local men unless they had money. they wanted men from other european countries or the US who had money and a means to take them away. At the time the avge Estonian was earling like $24k US equiv. while a dcent house (in the northern housing bubble) was running around $500k US.

You see this all over the world. You can get nice looking women from Russia, the Ukraine, Columbia, venezula, you name it. There is nothing unique in "marrying up", and it happens all over the US among white people as well. One couple I know (not too well) has a wife who came from "dirt poor" quite literally, and now with a successful husband she thinks her shyte don't stink and her kids should only hang out with kids from rich households. It is just the way of the world I guess.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Ka-Poom Theory Update Two – Preamble: Theory of a Sudden Adjustment

When I was in Estonia a few years back, I went to a local bar with a friend. There were all these STUNNING women ther, I mean truly beautiful, and very few guys with them. When I asked my friened about it, he told me that they were not interested in local men unless they had money. they wanted men from other european countries or the US who had money and a means to take them away. At the time the avge Estonian was earling like $24k US equiv. while a dcent house (in the northern housing bubble) was running around $500k US.

You see this all over the world. You can get nice looking women from Russia, the Ukraine, Columbia, venezula, you name it. There is nothing unique in "marrying up", and it happens all over the US among white people as well. One couple I know (not too well) has a wife who came from "dirt poor" quite literally, and now with a successful husband she thinks her shyte don't stink and her kids should only hang out with kids from rich households. It is just the way of the world I guess.

Too true......but on a happier note a friend who spent some time in Poland recently ran into a number of stunning Polish ladies who wanted nothing to do with flash tourists.....he said they were unanimous in their preference for their local fellas over the wealthier(relatively speaking) visitors/tourists......explained by them when asked because the local fellas treated them with dignity/respect, didn't beat them, didn't cheat on them, and worked hard to build happy families, even if they didn't have much of a shot an material wealth....after a few of the girls had been burned by foreigners just looking for a laugh.......so win one for the local fellas doing it right.

[c1ue]

Re: Ka-Poom Theory Update Two – Preamble: Theory of a Sudden Adjustment

People hate Americans until they need us to save or protect their asses -- then they love us.

I'd say that the well of WWII & WWI gratefulness is just about dry.

The MSM slant is also not to be underestimated. If we in the US have difficulty discerning the signal from the noise, it is 1000 times harder for a foreigner to do so since they literally only see the top level mainstream output.

You may not realize it, but a white American is a big catch in many Asian societies

This isn't a surprise, and is due to many factors:

1) Demographics: there are a lot more Asians than white people. period. If scarcity = value, then the 'catch' is obvious. Unfortunately many of these Asians discover that most of the white people in Asia are there because they couldn't hack it in their own societies.

2) American economic primacy: The top dog nation's people are always 'punching above their weight'. Witness Brits during the Pax Britanica.

3) Social factors: Women in highly male dominated Asian societies find the relative gender equality of Westerners to be very nice. Why be suppressed by Asian men/Asian society if you have a choice

4) MSM plus racial unfamiliarity. You know how some whities say Asians all look alike? Well, in Japan when I lived there, the same applied but with different results.

Everyone looked like either Tom Cruise or some other movie star, depending on the salient feature (big nose, hair style, shape of head/face, etc etc).