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Essential Trends - Part II-A: The End of Engineered Stagflation - Eric Janszen

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  • #46
    Re: Essential Trends - Part II-A: The End of Engineered Stagflation - Eric Janszen

    Originally posted by Chris Coles
    What I have learned over a lifetime is that the idea of a bank has deep flaws that relate to their having so much of other peoples money in their hands, day after day.
    I must say I am still unclear how you can reconcile this belief with having a local pool of money which in turn is somehow immune to this exact same flaw.

    Local entities can be as much, if not more, corrupt than national entities.

    My own view is that any source of power - which money is - will ultimately be abused. There can be no magical formula for removing the inherent danger of accumulation of power.

    And in turn, capital in the modern world cannot be segregated into small enough pools to defuse this danger. There are far too many requirements - both industrial and societal - which require such accumulation.

    Thus while I do agree that regulation is not in itself a magical mantra - the Soviet Union was a prime example with its bureaucracy still rampant today - at the same time the free market itself is equally no panacea.

    The position we are in today, however, is clearly one in which the regulatory side must gain ascendancy.

    Personally my view is that the only stable system is one which is always changing - and thus change, in particular unpredictable change, is the only way to prevent gaming of the system.

    Originally posted by Chris Coles
    It is true that there are many that attribute all our financial problems to the likes of families such as the Rothschild's; or, again, that they are the defining reason, as you so describe, for all of our past success. What I believe is that, as with any family business, if it works and brings in a profit, why change anything?

    All I can add is that I do not believe in any conspiracy; simply that they need to look more deeply into the underlying problems their own prosperity has brought their surrounding nations.
    I fear you again misinterpret what I've said. I've never ascribed conspiratorial roles to the Rothschilds or whomever. The highly visible role said banking families have played in the history of Europe is, however, well documented.

    And my point being, banking as a force in government and society is in no way a new phenomenon.

    Originally posted by Chris Coles
    I can only answer that it is my understanding that the Bank of England agrees with my view, that we do not have any functional mechanism to create free enterprise jobs at the grass roots of society using equity capital.
    Given the Bank of England's role (or lack thereof) in the formation of asset bubbles in England, as well as subsequent quantitative easing, I cannot say adding the BoE's imprimature to any proposed reform process is beneficial.

    Originally posted by Chris Coles
    This is a red herring; I am always talking about the creation of true free market, free enterprise business. I am never talking about the actions of governments; other than to disparage them. We all agreed, many decades ago, that monopoly is not the way to produce a functional economy.
    Why is the fact that most large corporations of today, as well as the large corporations of yore, are/were in fact quasi-government agencies at least in some part, not a factor when you cite the historical return rate of corporate dividends?

    As for 'true free market' - this is frankly the refuge of insufficient contemplation. Any market no matter how free in the beginning, inevitably loses 'freedom' as the winners in said market seek to preserve or improve their own position.

    Thus a 'true free market' is a theoretical construct which we'll never see for any length of time ever.

    Originally posted by Chris Coles
    One of the great challenges is to allow a less prosperous part of the wider economy to become involved with their own supply chain. Look back at history and it was quite the normal thing for the local population to turn out to "Build a Barn" for a neighbour.

    ...

    The precepts I have set out are only set down as applicable to the very small first stage start up. I have never set out to exclude the needs of the larger enterprise...... except that I do believe that if we continue to only fund new start ups under the banner of venture capital, where the new business is funded to become a purchase by another, larger company; then we lose all the many benefits of a fully competitive industrial economy.
    Raising a barn is a relatively low skill, high labor process, and the results are something which pretty much everyone in a farming community will need at some time.

    I've repeatedly asked you how such a cooperative venture as you propose could build a semiconductor wafer fab - the products of which form a key if understated role in modern existence, and the construction of which is anything but low skill.

    Your telecom patents in fact would be completely worthless without the baseband chips, the routers, the RF towers, CPUs for processing, and so forth.

    Thus while you may not specifically be advocating against larger enterprises, it is still quite unclear to me how you can legislate out the existence of banks - in order to legislate in the community funding - without in turn affecting the capability to form such larger enterprises.

    Or let me put this more clearly:

    If the local community savings enterprise as you've noted is so powerful, why then do you require the outside assistance of the BoE or any other in order to demonstrate its effectiveness?

    I would think even a town of 10,000 should be more than enough to demonstrate the effectiveness of this strategy and institution, and with this success in hand would come the opportunity to repeat in a larger venue?

    Comment


    • #47
      Re: Essential Trends - Part II-A: The End of Engineered Stagflation - Eric Janszen

      The only useful answer is to say that history will be my judge. I have set into motion a debate that I personally believe in. The answers can only stem from getting on and setting it all into motion. That I intend to do; one way or another.

      So let history be my judge.

      Comment


      • #48
        Re: Essential Trends - Part II-A: The End of Engineered Stagflation - Eric Janszen

        on cue, msm catches on...

        U.S. Shoppers Foot Bill for Soaring Pay in China

        BY JUSTIN LAHART

        One of the things that's showing up in Christmas stockings this year: higher prices, courtesy of China.

        After decades as America's go-to destination for low-cost consumer goods, China is undergoing a profound shift. Rapid economic development and a smaller supply of young migrant workers are pushing up labor costs. Tack on rising raw-materials prices, driven largely by Chinese demand, and a strengthening currency, and China-made goods aren't the bargains they used to be.

        In the past year, labor costs have risen 15% to 20% at Michaels Stores Inc.'s Chinese suppliers, says John Menzer, chief executive of the arts-and-crafts retailer.

        http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000..._marketplace_0

        Comment


        • #49
          Re: Essential Trends - Part II-A: The End of Engineered Stagflation - Eric Janszen







          http://www.NowAndTheFuture.com

          Comment


          • #50
            Re: Essential Trends - Part II-A: The End of Engineered Stagflation - Eric Janszen

            Originally posted by metalman View Post
            on cue, msm catches on...

            U.S. Shoppers Foot Bill for Soaring Pay in China
            A well-crafted headline - keeping in mind that's about all most people read. China - adds to the foreign scapegoat background radiation. Rising pay - always bad . . . . Put concisely and to the point

            The MSM know their job and they know it well.

            Comment


            • #51
              Re: Essential Trends - Part II-A: The End of Engineered Stagflation - Eric Janszen

              Yes, wages are and have been soaring in China - up to about $6,000 per year.

              US minimum wage translates to about $14,600 and true average yearly income is about $40,000.




              http://www.NowAndTheFuture.com

              Comment


              • #52
                Re: Essential Trends - Part II-A: The End of Engineered Stagflation - Eric Janszen

                Thanks Mr. Bart,

                It would be interesting to know how much food, clothing, shelter and medicine $6000 can purchase in China.
                Is it the same amount as 40K in the U.S?

                Comment


                • #53
                  Re: Essential Trends - Part II-A: The End of Engineered Stagflation - Eric Janszen

                  Originally posted by charliebrown View Post
                  Thanks Mr. Bart,

                  It would be interesting to know how much food, clothing, shelter and medicine $6000 can purchase in China.
                  Is it the same amount as 40K in the U.S?
                  No - far from it. One example, the US spends about 10-11% of CPI on food. In China, its close to 40% if memory serves.

                  Medical is a lot cheaper though. A Big Mac is about $4 in the US and about $2.27 in China for what its worth, and Purchasing Power Parity from the OECD shows the Yuan undervalued at about 80%. Very tough to get reliable data.
                  For what its worth, my daughter has lived in Beijing on & off for years and her *very* rough guess is that the yuan is undervalued around 50% against the dollar based on her living costs and guesstimates.
                  http://www.NowAndTheFuture.com

                  Comment


                  • #54
                    Re: Essential Trends - Part II-A: The End of Engineered Stagflation - Eric Janszen

                    Originally posted by charliebrown View Post
                    Thanks Mr. Bart,

                    It would be interesting to know how much food, clothing, shelter and medicine $6000 can purchase in China.
                    Is it the same amount as 40K in the U.S?
                    Here's our analysis of personal consumption expenditures by country.

                    Ed.

                    Comment


                    • #55
                      Re: Essential Trends - Part II-A: The End of Engineered Stagflation - Eric Janszen

                      Originally posted by ej
                      The next U.S. economic crisis will also be triggered by an oil price related external event. Current course and speed, our staggering economy, barely maintaining forward momentum, stuck in an Output Gap Trap smaller but no less inescapable than in the 1930s, will trip over a spike in oil prices, sending the economy back into recession in 2012.

                      The reason for the oil spike: the inexorable escalation of Syria's civil crisis into civil war and regional conflict.

                      kudos to ej on this. this was posted 11/30/11, about 8 months ago. i recall reading it and thinking that what was happening in syria was small scale, not close to a civil war. but it appears to be a civil war now, somewhat like the spanish civil war in which each side was funded and armed by hostile great power coalitions. don't know about the prediction of recession in '12, which ej has apparently backed away from recently. nonetheless, a prescient and/or exceedingly well informed observation re syria.

                      Comment


                      • #56
                        Re: Essential Trends - Part II-A: The End of Engineered Stagflation - Eric Janszen

                        Originally posted by jk View Post
                        kudos to ej on this. this was posted 11/30/11, about 8 months ago. i recall reading it and thinking that what was happening in syria was small scale, not close to a civil war. but it appears to be a civil war now, somewhat like the spanish civil war in which each side was funded and armed by hostile great power coalitions. don't know about the prediction of recession in '12, which ej has apparently backed away from recently. nonetheless, a prescient and/or exceedingly well informed observation re syria.[/COLOR]

                        Fantastic call - and one that is awful to be right about.

                        As for a recession call, others are starting to yell from the rooftops:

                        http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2012...rwhelming.html

                        Comment


                        • #57
                          Re: Essential Trends - Part II-A: The End of Engineered Stagflation - Eric Janszen

                          Originally posted by Chomsky View Post
                          Fantastic call - and one that is awful to be right about.
                          Agreed -- but I'm hoping he was only right on the first half of the call and that he's wrong on the regional conflict. Hopefully, the near-decapitation of Assad's leadership circle by the resistance will mean Syria implodes and does not spread.

                          Comment


                          • #58
                            Re: Essential Trends - Part II-A: The End of Engineered Stagflation - Eric Janszen

                            Originally posted by jpatter666 View Post
                            Agreed -- but I'm hoping he was only right on the first half of the call and that he's wrong on the regional conflict. Hopefully, the near-decapitation of Assad's leadership circle by the resistance will mean Syria implodes and does not spread.
                            Hard to say, especially with tensions flaring between US/Israel and Iran. Although I think Iran is digging its own grave by trying to close the Strait of Hormuz when one considers that most of that oil goes to Southeast Asian countries instead of the USA.

                            Comment


                            • #59
                              Re: Essential Trends - Part II-A: The End of Engineered Stagflation - Eric Janszen

                              Originally posted by BadJuju View Post
                              Hard to say, especially with tensions flaring between US/Israel and Iran. Although I think Iran is digging its own grave by trying to close the Strait of Hormuz when one considers that most of that oil goes to Southeast Asian countries instead of the USA.
                              Yeah....very large numbers of carriers heading that way. I'm thinking it's more to intimidate Iran (and Israel -- don't even *think* of trying to pre-emptive strike) before the election than anything. An Obama strike on Iran would sink any hope he has of reelection.

                              Comment


                              • #60
                                Re: Essential Trends - Part II-A: The End of Engineered Stagflation - Eric Janszen

                                Originally posted by jpatter666 View Post
                                Yeah....very large numbers of carriers heading that way. I'm thinking it's more to intimidate Iran (and Israel -- don't even *think* of trying to pre-emptive strike) before the election than anything. An Obama strike on Iran would sink any hope he has of reelection.
                                You obviously do not have to hand a history of the Falklands war where Margaret Thatcher won and raised her standing through the roof.

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